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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    If he's healthy I'll throw out Clay Buchholz as a guy that can probably be had for cheap on a one year deal. Put up a 2.01 ERA over 16 starts/98 innings with the Diamondbacks last year before being shut down with a forearm strain in September. His FIP of 3.47 wasn't quite as impressive, but was still 15% better than league average. Last I could find was he got a PRP injection & expects to be ready for spring training.
  2. sveumrules
    I'd imagine BPro's catching metrics (which incorporate blocking, framing & throwing) are probably just about as reliable as DRS or UZR are for position players. Which is to say far from perfect, but still the best we have & more reliable than any message board poster's estimation.
  3. sveumrules
    Gordon/Hamilton/Phillips could be a very good defensive outfield.
  4. sveumrules
    Notable 2005 First Round Draftees Revisited (last three years stats, remaining contract) Career WAR #1 Justin Upton (122 OPS+/11.3 WAR, 4 years/90 million) 35.0 #2 Alex Gordon (80 OPS+/3.4 WAR, 1 year/24 million) 35.2 #4 Ryan Zimmerman (107 OPS+/2.8 WAR, 1 year/20 million) 38.0 #5 Ryan Braun (119 OPS+/6.7 WAR, 2 years/40 million) 46.4 #7 Troy Tulowitzki (94 OPS+/3.5 WAR, 2 years/38 million) 44.1 #11 Andrew McCutchen (115 OPS+/4.6 WAR, 3 years/50 million) 42.0 #12 Jay Bruce (110 OPS+/3.0 WAR, 2 years/28 million) 18.9
  5. sveumrules
    Even with his age & contract Kluber ranked 12th on FanGraphs Top 50 Trade Value Series published at the 2018 All Star Break. Nathan Eovaldi has posted 2.9 WAR the last three seasons & just got 4/68. Kluber has posted 18 WAR the last three seasons. Sure he is older, but he'd be getting way more than 3/52 were he a free agent this offseason so there is plenty of surplus value on his deal. He will require a significant haul & rightfully so.
  6. sveumrules
    If GMs didn't want to meet the price on Santana when he was coming off of a season where he posted 2.9 WAR & a 126 OPS+, what kind of price do you think they will pay to acquire him after 1.0 WAR & a 97 OPS+ with a two month demotion to AAA?
  7. sveumrules
    I don't know. They are cheap I guess. Otherwise I don't see how they are so valuable. Nimmo is a ok defense high strikeout bat, while Conforto had a poor year. They are young, but I don't see how either would be off the table for a guy who is arguably the best catcher in the game. Both seem pretty average to me. Nimmo still managed to put up 4.5 WAR with ok defense & a high strikeout rate because he also had the 4th highest OBP in the league (.404) & 6th highest wRC+ (149). Conforto posted a 120 wRC+ & 3 WAR last year, hard to characterize that as poor unless maybe you're comparing it to to the 147 wRC+ & 4.4 WAR he put together in fewer games the season before. If I were the Marlins I'd prefer prospects with more team control, but the Mets don't really have anyone that fits the bill & would compare to other potential Realmuto headliners. Since their isn't a prospect match I think the Mets end up getting their catcher through FA.
  8. sveumrules
    I agree ... yet they are continuously brought up here when we talk about prospective trades and when people claim how the Brewers farm system is now garbage. It's all lip service. They are brought up continuously because they are the best publicly available tool for measuring the relative worth of prospects. Every Major League organization devotes far more resources than any publicly available service possibly could in attempt to identify & appropriately value prospects...& yet they still get it wrong all the time.
  9. sveumrules
    With two years left, the package shouldn't be too far off what Paxton brought. Hiura/Burnes would definitely be off the table for me. Highest I'd go is probably same as I would for a Realmuto package, their pick of Woodruff/Peralta plus Ray & a low level flier.
  10. sveumrules
    Final NL Central list is up at FanGraphs for the Cubs. Easily the worst farm in the division, though it sounds like Alzolay could possibly make an impact this year. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-31-prospects-chicago-cubs/ Top Ten Prospects in the Central for me would probably be... 01. Senzel (CIN) 02. Hiura (MIL) 03. Reyes (STL) 04. Greene (CIN) 05. Trammell (CIN) 06. Hayes (PIT) 07. Keller (PIT) 08. Knizner (STL) 09. Ray (MIL) 10. Stokes (MIL)
  11. sveumrules
    Kelly got 14, 75 & 42 MLB plate appearances the last three seasons. The samples are so small & spread out as to be essentially meaningless. In 2017 he batted 280 times at AAA & posted a 120 wRC+ with an 11.8% walk rate. In 2018 he batted 349 times at AAA & posted a 107 wRC+ with a 13.8% walk rate. Steamer projects him for an 85 wRC+ at the MLB level next year, which is the same projection they have for Pina & higher than the 69 they have projected for Nottingham.
  12. sveumrules
    Anyone calling Verlander a former ace when he was traded wan't paying attention, he was coming off a Cy Young runner up season in 2016 & had posted another 4.7 WAR with Detroit in 2017 before he was traded. From 2016 to 2017 (pre trade) Verlander posted... 9.68 K9 2.79 BB9 1.19 HR9 3.38 ERA (79 ERA-) 3.74 FIP (85 FIP-) 399 IP Those are massive edges in both strikeouts & innings over what Bumgarner has done the last two years. Verlander also had 2/56 left on his contract & a full no trade clause when he was dealt, which is quite a bit different than 1/12 for Bumgarner with a partial NTC.
  13. sveumrules
    Combined 2016-17 stats for Chase Anderson, Madison Bumgarner & Jhoulys Chacin CA: 7.85 K9 2.95 BB9 1.32 HR9 3.37 ERA (80 ERA-) 4.45 FIP (105 FIP-) 299 IP MB: 7.85 K9 2.36 BB9 1.16 HR9 3.29 ERA (82 ERA-) 3.97 FIP (101 FIP-) 240 IP JC: 7.46 K9 3.45 BB9 0.89 HR9 3.69 ERA (89 ERA-) 4.14 FIP (99 FIP-) 373 IP
  14. sveumrules
    I think Bumgarner makes sense as a trade target. He is a lefty starter (we have none) & due to injury/declining results doesn't have a ton of surplus value at one year, twelve million. Of course the Giants probably value him more highly than the market does because of his history with the team & want a larger return than is warranted. Highest I'd probably go is Erceg & a low level flier.
  15. sveumrules
    That Bergman box looks absolutely insane. Almost initimidating in its breadth/scope. Not sure which Tarkovskys are on your list homer, but I recently watched Stalker for the first time & absolutely loved it. A lot funnier than I expected. Pretty sure Barnes & Noble has 50% off all Criterion titles the rest of the month or at least until Xmas. I Always try to stop in & pick up a stack of discs this time of year.
  16. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how this deal is structured. Nationals have been big on deferrals in the past. For instance they owe Scherzer 105 million for 2019-2021, but it is actually being paid 15 million a year from 2022 to 2028. Don't worry, though, Max isn't pitching for no paycheck the next three seasons. He got a 50 million signing bonus with 15 million paid in each of 2019, 2020 & 2021. Trying to decipher Strasburg's payment schedule is equally fun. From what I can tell he is getting 15 million each from this year through the last year of his deal in 2023 followed by 10 million a year in deferred payments from 2024-2030.
  17. sveumrules
    Reds list up today over at FanGraphs. Looks like they have the best farm in the division, but they probably should since they've been so bad for so long... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-cincinnati-reds/ This bit from the system summary seemed relevant with DJ's recent hiring... We always say that having too much talent is never a problem, but too much talent is decidedly not the problem on the pitching side. Tony Santillan, Vladimir Gutierrez, and some middle relief types should all go from this list to getting big league looks at some point this year, and Hunter Greene could be the frontline guy they need long-term, but the hurlers on this list aren’t answering short-term questions at the big league level. Once quality depth presents itself on the major league pitching staff, the lineup will probably be good enough to compete, so pitching remains the challenge going forward for Cincinnati.
  18. sveumrules
    Thanks as always for putting the work in on this, reilly. Extra internet points awarded to Oxy, Austin Tatious & Roderick as the three posters getting on the Eduardo Garcia train early. Should see a decent number of these guys in Milwaukee this year, too. Hiura seems like a pretty good bet after the Super Two deadline. Houser should factor into the bullpen mix. Nottingham & Dubon look to be an injury away from backup duty at the moment. Will also be interesting to see who of Ray, Stokes & Taylor gets the call when we inevitably need an OF at some point.
  19. sveumrules
    I had the same thought. Jean Segura ranked just inside the top 50 of the Fangraphs trade value series this past summer, one spot behind James Paxton. I assume there is at least one solid prospect heading to Seattle along with Crawford. It is kind of crazy that Segura is going to be playing with his 5th different major league organization. Crawford's value is tough to peg. He was ranked between #14 & #37 by BA, BPro & MLB prior to 2018, then had kind of a meh season when he wasn't injured. I don't think he's prospect eligible, but I'd say his value is probably around someone in that 50-75 range. Will be interesting to see what the other pieces are. Looking at the Phils system I'm getting some DiPoto vibes from JoJo Romero & Ranger Suarez.
  20. sveumrules
    Last season the Mets got a historic season from deGrom, a mostly healthy year from Thor & a career best season from Wheeler...and still finished fourth. That trio combined for 553 innings of a 2.60 ERA good for 17.5 bWAR/17.1 fWAR. That same trio is projected for about 12 WAR by Steamer next year. Even if their big three stay healthy & productive next season I think they are going to need a couple two tree more moves in addition to this one to get in the mix with ATL, WAS & PHI.
  21. sveumrules
    He hasn't been non-tendered yet & even if he eventually is, we didn't all know it was going to happen ahead of time or else this thread would not exist to the extent it does.
  22. sveumrules
    If two people working full time year round is insufficient, how many people would be needed to more accurately attempt to rank the individual prospects & by proxy the farm systems of each team? How much time did Eric & Kiley spend compiling this information & how much more time would they have needed to spend in order to obtain the necessary organization specific knowledge? The large majority of minor league players will never play in MLB so slapping 30/35 grades on unheralded prospects with no track record of successful performance at AA or above seems entirely appropriate.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, LaStella's only real value comes from being one of the best pinch hitters in the league. The last three years he has pinch hit 273/402/381 in 172 PAs, second most in MLB. The average pinch hitter over the last three years has been around 215/300/345.
  24. sveumrules
    19 of 40 FanGraphs writers picked us to make the playoffs last season (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2018-staff-predictions/) so it seems they were pretty accurate there. Both of their prospect analysts picked us to make the playoffs with Longenhagen having us as the division winner. The point in trying to put a future value on any prospect right now, even ones far away from the majors with a variety of possible outcomes, is because Major League front offices do the same thing & this acts as an approximation thereof.
  25. sveumrules
    Who was the last arbitration eligible player that was non-tendered & subsequently signed a multi year deal?
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