sveumrules

A big factor helping Khris in the OPS+ department is that he plays in one of the more pitcher friendly parks in MLB, so his raw numbers get a boost. Domingo playing in a hitters's heaven like Miller Park means his raw numbers take a hit for OPS+. Both are limited defense, limited contact, big power guys we traded, but the similarity really ends there. The last two seasons Khris has been top ten in MLB at khrushing fastballs. Domingo, well, hasn't... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-rays-ditched-their-bad-fastball-hitters/ With all the data available MLB clubs, teams are likely only to further try and exploit such weaknesses. Perhaps there is feeling within the Rays, specifically, that not only is this an exploitable weakness, but also one that is difficult to improve.

Being able to spray to all fields negates shifts. That's a nice trait to have as Yelich showed. He's also hit lefties pretty well so is still useful in PH role. Santana hits bombs. Santana > Gamel Santana strikes out. Santana slow. Santana can't field. Santana is out of options. Santana cost more. Santana < Gamel.

Career MLB: Santana - 113 wRC+ Gamel - 100 wRC+ And Santana is a year younger. Yes. Santana is a better hitter than Gamel. Mostly on account of his massive edge in power. His power is the loudest tool involved in the deal. At the same time, his inability to make contact is also the biggest red flag involved in the deal. That is a mitigating factor. When you consider that Gamel has a much better hit/contact tool & is a better baserunner/fielder, that makes up for a fair amount of that 13 point wRC+ edge. Add in that being lefty, costing less & having an option makes him a better fit for the roster, plus the fact he's outperformed Domingo as recently as last year, and then throw in a pitching prospect the FO clearly likes & I guess it's just hard for me to quantify that as basically nothing.

What would you consider to be a more fragrant return for Domingo? I'd rather keep Santiago than give him away for basically nothing. The only people who will think this was good deal are Stearns worshippers. Domingo Santana 2018 265/328/412 (97 wRC+) 32.8 K% Basically Nothing 2018 272/358/370 (108 wRC+) 20.8 K%

What would you consider to be a more fragrant return for Domingo?

For whatever it is or isn't worth Steamer projects Gamel for a 99 wRC+ next year compared to a 103 wRC+ for Santana. I would guess the Brewers internal projection system spit out something similar. Lefty, way lower strikeout rate, has an option, likely a better defender...Santana may have more upside, but Gamel looks like a better fit as the team is currently constructed. Throw in an Ivy League pitcher that I'm sure the FO also specifically targeted & I think this is a pretty fair return for square peg round hole Domingo.

Winker is the only real OF the Reds currently have (Schebler & Duvall are pretty meh). 150 IP of good Zach Davies would have been the Reds second best starter last year. No team has lost more games than Cincinnati over the last five seasons, looks like they're tying to do something about that.

I'm not sure Miller would be the best case study for this since he already had about 359 innings in MLB plus another 319 in MiLB as mostly a starter before converting to relief full time. Once he did make the switch he was used situationally for three seasons. 163 games/133 innings from 2012-14. Even once his usage increased, it doesn't really compare to someone like Hader. From 2015-17 peak Miller pitched 187 games/198 innings. Hader is at 90 games/129 innings career. In 2017 Miller pitched on zero days rest 15 times, one days rest 14 times, two days rest 14 times, three days rest 4 times & four days rest 5 times. Compare that to Hader in 2018 at zero days rest 5 times, one days rest 11 times, two days rest 15 times, three days rest 10 times, four days rest 7 times & five days rest 4 times.

I don't think that pointing out how ridiculous an exaggeration is is any weirder than having to make ridiculous exaggerations in the first place to support a position. I guess what I don't understand is if Kratz is such a bad hitter, a bad blocker & a bad thrower...why was he playing so much down the stretch & in the playoffs? The only things left are framing & leadership/working with pitchers. If you think framing is hard to measure, try to quantify the latter. Ultimately the front office thought whatever Kratz brought to the table outside of hitting, blocking & throwing was enough to overcome his deficiencies in those areas or else Pina would have been playing more often. I don't think they'd intentionally put someone they judged to be a worse option in the lineup more often than someone they judged to be a better option.

C: Pina, Kratz IF: Aguilar, Thames, (stopgap 2B), Shaw, Arcia, Perez OF: Yelich, Cain, Braun, Santana SP: Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Nelson RP: Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Woodruff, Claudio, Williams, Houser. 1. Pursue trades that don't involve Hiura/Burnes. One of Woodruff/Peralta plus Corey Ray would be the biggest pieces I'd be comfortable moving. 2. If aforementioned package isn't enough for Realmuto or Grandal is too much money, sign another veteran scrap heap catcher for depth. 3. Figure out the stopgap 2B. Plenty out there. 4. Sign a couple cheap pitchers on one year deals for depth. 5. Unfortunately I don't think the demand is out there for any of the guys many would like to deal (Anderson, Davies, Thames, Domingo, Keon) so they all stay put. Keon is out of options so hopefully he can find an MLB spot somewhere. Thanks Keon.

Avg C 2018 233/304/374 (84 wRC+) Pina 2018 252/307/395 (85 wRC+) Kratz 2018 236/280/355 (70 wRC+) Avg P 2018 115/144/148 (-25 wRC+) Kratz hit 15% worse than Pina last year, but was still 95% better than the average pitcher. That means that Kratz was about 633% nearer to hitting like Pina (or an average C) than to hitting like a pitcher. Despite Kratz having only the 39th most framing chances in 2018, he ranked 10th in framing runs per BPro. It seems the reason he was catching Miley/Chacin exclusively is because analytics likely showed they would benefit the most from additional borderline strike calls & Kratz gave them the best chance to get those calls. It worked. I'd prefer an upgrade to C before the season starts, but Red Sox catchers hit for a league worst 40 wRC+last season & they still won the World Series.

Agree with this. Last two years shake out to... Thames 829 PAs 118 wRC+ Aguilar 877 PAs 127 wRC+ For whatever it is or isnt worth, Steamer projects Eric for a 109 wRC+ next year compared to 105 for Jesus. I'd imagine the plan for next year as it currently stands would be to start Aguilar with Thames getting a couple two tree starts a week between 1B & corner OF. Combined they have played 23 months with the Brewers & I thought it'd be fun to write them all down then type them all here. 01. 0417 ET (103 PAs) 345/466/810 (219 wRC+!!) 02. 0618 JA (91 PAs) 313/352/747 (183 wRC+) 03. 0517 JA (63 PAs) 328/381/707 (175 wRC+) 04. 0917 ET (72 PAs) 328/431/574 (160 wRC+) 05. 0418 JA (52 PAs) 378/423/533 (155 wRC+) 06. 0418 ET (74 PAs) 250/351/625 (151 wRC+) 07. 0518 JA (107 PAs) 272/355/565 (142 wRC+) 08. 0617 JA (63 PAs) 286/365/536 (133 wRC+) 09. 0818 JA (105 PAs) 270/371/506 (131 wRC+) 10. 0717 ET (83 PAs) 284/361/500 (124 wRC+) 11. 0718 ET (74 PAs) 265/324/500 (119 wRC+) 12. 0817 JA (53 PAs) 213/302/553 (112 wRC+) 13. 0517 ET (96 PAs) 221/375/416 (108 wRC+) 14. 0618 ET (62 PAs) 218/300/491 (108 wRC+) 15. 0918 ET (24 PAs) 211/375/368 (108 wRC+) 16. 0718 JA (106 PAs) 202/321/449 (105 wRC+) 17. 0918 JA (105 PAs) 266/324/447 (105 wRC+) 18. 0917 JA (41 PAs) 250/317/444 (95 wRC+) 19. 0717 JA (52 PAs) 261/308/391 (79 wRC+) 20. 0817 ET (92 PAs) 173/272/420 (76 wRC+) 21. 0617 ET (105 PAs) 163/267/402 (69 wRC+) 22. 0417 JA (39 PAs) 222/282/278 (48 wRC+) 23. 0818 ET (44 PAs) 098/159/244 (-4 wRC+!!!) Key takeaways for me are that in eleven or twelve months we've gotten average or better production for a 1B out of one of the two with only one month (0418) of overlap in there. Then you have five months of meh production followed by six months of bad to abysmal production. Add it all up & over the last two seasons Brewers 1B are 6th in WRC+ & 8th in fWaR. Not bad for a couple scrap heap guys.

Both Cooper & Yamamoto have identical Future Values of 40, same as everyone from 13 to 25 on the Marlins list. All the prospects within that range are ultimately "ranked" the same. Unless you're arguing Yamamoto should be up in the 6-10 range with the other 45 FVs. I think the 40 FVs are accurate for both. A 40 FV hitter is a bench player & Cooper looks like at best the short half of a platoon. A 40 FV pitcher is a backend starter/low leverage reliever which seems about right for Jordan with his below average velocity likely limiting his ultimate upside.

No one is responding because there isn't an answer. Literally the post above yours. That feeling when you find out turborickey has you on ignore.

Justin Bour is 31 & put up a 126 OPS+ between 2017 & 2018 in 930 PAs. He is getting 1/2.5 million for 2019. Matt Adams is 30 & put up a 110 OPS+ between 2017 & 2018 in 704 PAs. He is getting 1/3 millions for 2019 with a million dollar buyout on a 2020 option. Eric Thames is 32 & put up a 119 OPS+ between 2017 & 2018 in 829 PAs. At 1/6 million for 2019 plus the million buyout for 2020 he probably has slightly negative value.

Despite Yasmani Grandal being a year & a half younger than Manny Pina, he already has 483 more games & 1,866 more plate appearances. Yasmani was a full time starter at age 25, it took Manny until he was 30 to crack 300 PAs in a season. MP 2017-18 | 266/317/410 (90 wRC+) 696 PAs YG 2017-18 | 244/329/462 (114 wRC+) 1,000 PAs MP career | 263/318/401 (90 wRC+) 794 PAs YG career | 240/341/441 (117 wRC+) 2,660 PAs In 2018 & 2017 Yasmani ranked 1st & 4th by BPro's catching metric which include framing, blocking & throwing. Pina ranked 19th & 31st.

Between Grandal at something like 3/40 plus the lost draft pick, or... Realmuto at something like 2/16 through arby minus one of Woodruff/Peralta, Ray & another depth piece... I'd probably prefer option Yasmani (even though I prefer JT as a player) just because to me keeping Woodruff/Peralta & Ray is worth more than the additional salary... Which means we'll probably roll into the season with Pina, Kratz & maybe another cheap scrap heap vet.

Marlins list up at FanGraphs today with Diaz & Harrison headlining at 50 FV plus familiar names like Garrett Cooper & Jordan Yamamoto a little farther down... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-miami-marlins/

His option was for 3.5 million, so he would have cost us a little more to retain. I'm guessing cost & being out of options were just too much to overcome with cheaper, optionable alternatives who likely carry similar internal projections on hand.

During his age 33-34 seasons Ben Zobrist put up a 118 OPS+ & 6.9 WAR as a switch hitting mostly second baseman. He then signed a 4 year, 56 million dollar contract. During his age 33-34 seasons Jed Lowrie put up a 120 OPS+ & 8.8 WAR as a switch hitting mostly second baseman. I'd love Jed at 2/15, but I have a feeling he is holding out for more than that & will get it.

I think ideally the Dodgers would include Will Smith as part of their JT package. Kelbert Ruiz spent all of 2018 at AA, so he could get a season in at AAA this year then break into MLB as Realmuto's backup in 2020.

Over the last three seasons 189 relievers have pitched at least 100 innings. Of that sample, Claudio ranks... IP (197) 22nd BB/9 (1.73) 7th HR/9 (0.41) 8th GB% (63.7) 5th ERA- (69) 34th FIP- (70) 24th rWAR (3.8) 33rd fWAR (3.4) 24th WPA (+4.42) 20th Elite is a tricky word, but Claudio has been among the top 4% of all relievers in limiting both walks/homers & inducing ground balls. Not bad for a guy whose FB velocity (86.1) ranked 187th & K/9 (5.87) ranked 183rd. Sure, he has limitations, but even with those limitations has been at worst a top 35ish reliever over the last three seasons.

That's not accurate, a lot of posters responded to say they'd much rather see the Brewers spend money on a reliever & keep the draft pick. I'd imagine some of those same posters, had we signed a reliever instead, would have complained that it was too much money &/or too many years. Some people just complain, it's what they do. Bonus Internet Points to anyone that can find a Stearns move that trwi7 said something positive about.

I can't fathom the Crew not protecting him. Let Cedeno/Jennings go to free up the spot, but this was just poor roster management. Does it still qualify as poor roster management now that Olczak wasn't selected or is it possible Stearns & company just had the market accurately gauged all along?

Agreed, but this signing isn't that much different than the Brewers signing of Cain last year. Two 31 year old OF'ers who have zero question marks about work ethic or character, but Cain was more often injured and his OBP and offensive stats really pale in comparision to McCutchen's. His Defense is outstanding, so that offsets that a bit, but the Brewers also went 2 years longer. Now if Cain can continue to be a high OB guy...even if he drops 20-25 points, and plays good defense, his contract will be fine. But I think this is a more reasonable deal for the Phils than at 1st glance....at least my first glance. His defense offsets it more than a bit. There is a big difference between an elite CF like Cain (+112 DRS/+63 UZR career) & one that was so bad he had to be moved to a corner like McCutchen (-66 DRS/-39 UZR career). Steamer projects McCutchen for a 126 wRC+ & about 3 WAR next year. Cain's projection is for a 111 wRC+ & around 4 WAR.