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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Segura & Dee Gordon got into a nasty clubhouse brawl last September. I think there was more than $/WAR considerations involved in dealing Jean.
  2. sveumrules
    Don't think the Brewers are planning on spending this kind of cash on a reliever & even if they were I don't think Robertson would have chosen us over an East Coast team, but at 2/23 he definitely would have been the guy I targeted. From 2010 through 2018 he has cleared 60 innings each season with a FIP- between 44 & 84 and an ERA- between 26 & 90. Guy is about as consistent as it gets for a reliever. Add it all up (14.2 WAR, 17.80 WPA) & he is the best reliever outside of the upper tier of Kimbrel (19.0 WAR, 24.30 WPA)/Kenley (17.7 WAR, 20.05 WPA)/Aroldis (17.6 WAR, 17.74 WPA) over that time frame.
  3. sveumrules
    I'd imagine that projection systems are going off of FIP much more so than ERA, since FIP has a higher year to year correlation than ERA. The last three seasons Jhoulys has FIPs of 4.01, 4.26 & 4.03. Projection: 4.68 The last three seasons Chase has FIPs of 5.09, 3.58 & 5.22. Projection: 4.96 The last three seasons Quintana has FIPs of 3.56, 3.68 & 4.43. Projection: 3.94 The last three seasons Hamels has FIPs of 3.98, 4.62, 4.49. Projection: 3.94 The last three seasons Anibal has FIPs of 5.06, 5.33 & 3.63. Projection: 4.21 The last three seasons Roark has FIPs of 3.79, 4.13 & 4.27. Projection: 4.49 The only projection that seems wonky to me out of those is Hamels, but he also was a top 7-8 pitcher in MLB for a decade from 2006-15 so maybe Steamer is somehow cooking that in.
  4. sveumrules
    FanGraphs isn't predicting every Brewer starter to have an ERA in the high 4s, Steamer is. Fangraphs just hosts those projections. Guerra (3.88), Nelson (4.20), Peralta (4.39), Woodruff (4.44) & Burnes (4.52) are all projected in the high three to mid four range. The reason why Steamer projects regression for Chacin is because historically pitchers of his age/profile get worse.
  5. sveumrules
    Is he? I truly don't mean this as a troll-y response. When I follow his MiLB track record, I don't see anything special. He definitely posted a good MLB line in a small sample last season, but to me he screams DH-only defensively, without the DH-caliber bat. Currently at 8 HR & 4 K (with 11 BB) in 236 Venezuelan League plate appearances. That is a 3TO of less than 10%. Sure, it's the Venezuelan League, but that is pretty insane.
  6. sveumrules
    549 players had at least 10 qualified runs to qualify for the StatCast Sprint Speed leaderboard last year & Willians came in at 24.5 feet per second which was 520th in the sample. For comparison it looks like the slowest Brewers were Jett Bandy (23.8), Kratz (24.6) & Aguilar (24.7). Checking his minor league stats it looks like Astudillo had 70 GIDP in 2,461 PAs or a GIDP rate of about 2.8%. MLB average GIDP rate last year was 1.9% so it looks like his extreme contact, no speed profile will likely make him more susceptible to double plays. Guy is a truly fascinating player, will definitely be interesting to see how the Twins use him this year.
  7. sveumrules
    This article by Jeff Sullivan (published February of 2018) takes a look at historical projections from 2005-17 & does a really good job of explaining the limitations & most reasonable applications thereof... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-make-sure-were-honest-about-projections/
  8. sveumrules
    FanGraphs does not create projections, they only host them. Nineteen of their forty writers picked us to make the playoffs last year, with seven picking us to win the division. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2018-staff-predictions/ ETA: Former FG writer August Fagerstrom was hired away from the site by the Brewers & is currently listed as "Analyst - Baseball Operations" for the team, so clearly they think the information provided is of some value. I saw him throw out the first pitch at a game I was at (pretty sure they said he won the chance to do so at an employee party or something) & he did alright...for a NERD.
  9. sveumrules
    The reason Astudillo has never gotten any prospect love is probably because he is listed at 5'9"/225 pounds & is probably shorter/fatter than that.
  10. sveumrules
    Because it's better to be comfortable for twelve months of the year than six?
  11. sveumrules
    Tulo is definitely worth a 40 man spot. With the number of suitors he likely has I don't see any way he ends up settling for a minor league deal. If he's healthy (obviously a big if) he is a pretty good bet to outperform Mauricio. Steamer projections for whatever they are or aren't worth... Tulo 255/314/420 Dubon 252/296/364 Arcia 253/302/376 Hiura 258/304/393 Hernan 253/291/394 Spngnbrg 245/307/383
  12. sveumrules
    Dubon AAA career | 4.5 BB% 14.8 K% .175 ISO Phillips AAA career | 11.1 BB% 30.5 K% .225 ISO I agree that Mauricio probably shouldn't be relied upon as anything more than an interesting depth piece coming off injury, but I don't really see how Maverick's small sample of MLB results is really relevant given they have completely different profiles in the box.
  13. sveumrules
    Where are you getting this info? BRef lists Jesus playing 6,940 innings at 1B in the minors compared to 14 innings at 3B.
  14. sveumrules
    Sounds like Rodgers wanted to play, so he played. Sure, the organization should have the final say. They obviously either don't or didn't want to exercise it for whatever reason. Maybe in future season Rodgers will learn from today & start sitting out the last couple two tree games of every season after we've been eliminated from the postseason.
  15. sveumrules
    & the Kizer era begins...
  16. sveumrules
    Cool fake field goal.
  17. sveumrules
    Grandal career 240/341/441 (117 wRC+) M Pina career 263/318/407 (90 wRC+) Manny hitting for a better average is pretty meaningless when he still has a lower OBP & SLG while also playing in a more hitter friendly park, thus the massive edge in wRC+ for Yasmani. Pina's batting line is pretty much right in line with a league average catcher, so he is alright. That Yasmani has been over 25% better does make him pretty great by comparison.
  18. sveumrules
    Tulo will have no shortage of suitors, so its all going to come down to what he prioritizes. Contender (yes) Opportunity (opening day 2B, possible SS if Arcia hits around a 50 OPS+ again) Location (not Cali, but we've got a roof)
  19. sveumrules
    Right. Because no one offered more than nothing. Cause = player is among worst in MLB for two straight seasons. Effect = player has no value. The Reds valued Scooter so highly they started him in 19 of 56 games before his 4 HR outburst. If they knew he was going to be so good why did they wait so long to give him regular starts?
  20. sveumrules
    And the Brewers gave it away for nothing Because no team was willing to offer anything of value after Scooter was one of the worst regulars in MLB for two straight seasons.
  21. sveumrules
    There were 164 players who got at least 900 plate appearances between the 2015-16 seasons. Of those 164 players, Scooter ranked 148th in wRC+ (86) & 156th in WAR (0.4). For two seasons he was one of the worst regulars in all of MLB. I'd say that's a pretty fair shot. With regards to defense, Braun's -32 DRS/-28.5 UZR at 3B in 2007 are the 2nd/3rd worst marks of over 1,500 individual qualifying seasons among infielders & outfielders between 2007-18. I'm pretty confident that even if Keston is below average at 2B he won't be historically awful.
  22. sveumrules
    I'd say 15 WAR is a pretty generous projection for the next three years of Kluber. That is 5 WAR a year & no injuries. There is a very realistic chance he provides less than that as he is getting older, age 33-35 seasons under contract. He also costs 52.5 million bucks. If the Brewers internal projections have Burnes or Hiura producing more than 15 WAR over the next six seasons at a cost lower than 52.5 million (which I believe they probably do) then it would be sound reasoning & logic, not fear, which is driving any decision to not include one of them plus other prospects in a deal for Kluber.
  23. sveumrules
    Last year Brewers 2B batted 227/290/378 (78 wRC+). Steamer projects Hiura for 258/304/393 (86 wRC+). I'd guess most here would take the over on that projection. If he can match his 2018 AA production in MLB & put up a 270/340/420 line that would be about a 105 wRC+ at MP.
  24. sveumrules
    Shaw has been pretty great all things considered. 20% better than league average with the bat & worth 7-8 WAR over the last two seasons depending on if you think he is about average in the field (UZR: +2 at 3B) or above average (DRS: +12 at 3B). Not bad for a guy many thought was a weak return for Thornburg.
  25. sveumrules
    317 players have batted at least 700 times over the last three years. Keon's K% of 36.6 is 316th in the sample. His defense is great, but neither Cain nor Yelich are coming out in late game situations. A 4th OF who can make contact as a pinch hitter & spell Braun occasionally (both in the starting lineup & late game D if needed) seems like a better fit to me. In the Offseason Plan thread I said I didn't think any of Domingo, Keon, Thames, Davies or Anderson would be moved due to lack of demand & was promptly proven wrong. Lotsa winter left yet.
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