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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Comparing 2018 Brewers with 2015 Royals
sveumrules replied to Patrick425's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The bad: Alcides Escobar, career wRC+: 71. Orlando Arcia, career wRC+: 72. The (maybe?) good: EskyMagic was a thing for the Royals. Perhaps we will have our own OrlandoMagic. -
Today almost seems like the perfect opportunity to try using Hader as an "opener". Hasn't pitched in a week, facing Arrieta & you've got Suter to follow him up with the total contrast in style.
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Currently 11-3 in games started by Jhoulys. 2018 ERA-: 88, career ERA-: 91 2018 FIP-: 97, career FIP-: 98
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Comparing 2018 Brewers with 2015 Royals
sveumrules replied to Patrick425's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Brewers had an opening day payroll around 90 million bucks this season. The last WS winner with an opening day payroll that low was the 2006 Cardinals. We can't really afford to emulate any of the other recent WS winners. -
I remember hoping back in 2003 that the Rays would take Rickie Weeks at #1 so Delmon Young would fall to us at #2. Guess we should have been pining for Markakis the whole time.
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FanGraphs article from today with some quotes from Hader & CC... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/josh-hader-post-label-star/
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Tearing it up might be a little aggressive, but Ray currently has a 123 wRC+ built on a nice walk rate (11.7%) combined with a .210 isolated slugging (7th in the SL) while also being the most efficient base stealer in the league.
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Really like that the Brewers ended up with three athletic, high school kids. Should be fun to follow. I also tend not to get worked up about who gets picked or what position they play because 1) hopefully the Brewers know way more about these kds than I do & B) any impact made is going to be so long from now that who knows what our specific needs will be at that point. Take Ray & Puk. For most of the time since their draft it has looked like we whiffed on acquiring that potential TOR starter while Ray struggled/stagnated. Now Puk is recovering from TJ while Ray is tearing up the Southern League.
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Here's the FanGraphs report on Turang... As an underclassman, Turang looked like he might be the best prospect on a Southern California Area Code team that included Hunter Greene, Nick Allen, Jeremiah Estrada, Hans Crouse and several other excellent prospects. His balletic actions at shortstop and plus arm and athleticism gave Turang a stable floor, while his precocious feel to hit (he struck out just twice as a junior) and chance to grow into power made him a potential star. Turang looked like the best player in the class until last summer when he suddenly looked lethargic and uncomfortable at the plate. He's been better this spring, but not so great that concerns about his developmental direction have been quelled. Teams who value several years of performance are likely to value Turang more highly, and he should be off the board anywhere between the mid-teens and early twenties.
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Aguilar has 887 innings at first since 2014. Of the 54 first basemen with at least 800 innings since then his DRS of 0 ranks 26th & his UZR of -0.2 ranks 30th. He is about as average as it can get by the numbers.
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It looks like the standard to clear would be the 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen which managed 9.6 WAR via FIP or 12.9 WAR via runs allowed, both MLB bests since the original Nasty Boys in 1990. Their Win Probability Added of 12.65 over that same span was second best to the 2012 Orioles (13.52). You probably remember prime Eric Gagne (82 IP, 1.20 ERA, 0.86 FIP) from that 2003 Dodgers pen but they also featured our old buddy Guillermo Mota chipping in 105 innings of 1.97 ERA work. The Brewers relievers are currently sitting on 3.3 WAR via FIP & 5.1 WAR via runs allowed with a 5.07 WPA one third of the way into the season, so they're definitely on pace so far.
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I feel like I've seen at least one of these machine gun cops at every game I've been to so far this year, but it did seem a little more ramped up today. I guess I get why they're there but it was definitely still super startling the first time I literally almost bumped into one of them all decked out for urban warfare.
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Holy Kratz.
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2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Fangraphs projections are a 50/50 split of the Steamer & ZIPS models, I believe. The projections do update as the season progresses. Aguilar for instance was projected for an 87 wRC+ before the season per ZIPS & is now projected at 97wRC+ rest of season. It should also be noted that we got 7 votes to win the division & 12 wild card votes in their 2018 staff predictions, which would have placed us in a tie for the WC2 spot with Arizona, so while the projections they host may not have caught up yet many of their writers are buying in ahead of the computers & ultimately I think that gets to what's most important... Everything should be considered. The projection systems are one way to go. Watching as many games yourself as you can is another way to go. Relying solely on one or the other will leave you lacking in important information you wouldn't have otherwise. Also, just saw on MLB Network that in each of the last 17 World Series at least one of the teams was not in the postseason the season prior. Hopefully this year that team is us. -
Realmuto is the one player currently known to be available that I would pony up for just because catcher is theee thinnest position leaguewide & having a good one like JT can really give you a significant advantage. Would prefer to keep Hiura/Burnes/Peralta if at all possible so my best offer would probably be Ray, one of Ortiz/Brown, Lara & Nottingham.
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I don't think Machado will bring a Yelich like return just because there is such a difference in team control. Five years of Yelich at below market prices has way more value than 2-3 months of Machado, even if he maintains the ridiculous numbers he has posted to start the season. I would look to headline with Maverick as an MLB ready OF you can plug in for the next six years. Maybe someone like Brown or Ortiz as the second piece & then a low level lottery ticket or a PTBNL a la the CC deal. Anything higher than that I would probably pass & hope Arcia figures it out at the plate as the season progresses. Interesting to think that Machado & Harper will probably come in around 750 million bucks this offseason. They both debuted in 2012 & since that time come in at 11th (Harper, 28.5) & 14th (Machado, 26.5) on the FanGraphs WAR leaderboard. Mike Trout tops the leaderboard at 57.5 so he has been worth more than both of them combined.
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Not much difference between them. Buxton's career: 6.7% BB, 31.6% K, wOBA .294, wRC+ 79 Broxton's career: 10.7% BB, 37.2% K, wOBA .312, wRC+ 93 You could make an argument that Broxton is a better player offensively. I haven't seen much of Buxton defensively, but to be a 3.5 fWAR player last year he must be the best thing in CF since Willie Mays. Buxton is +32 DRS & +16.6 UZR career which puts him 5th/8th among 33 CF with at least 1,500 innings since 2015. Keon comes in at +2 DRS/-1.2 UZR, which puts him 18th in the same sample by both measures. Buxton is also 3.5 years younger (Keon was in AA at the same age) & showed some improvement at the plate posting an 89 wRC+ over 842 PAs in 2016-17 before getting off to an abysmal start this year. Between the already upper tier defense, somewhat recent signs of life on offense, relative youth/maybe still untapped upside & Minnesota's market size/place on the win curve I think Buxton is worthy of whatever time he gets.
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11-10 against teams over .500 that aren't the Cubs.
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Came here specifically hoping to read a bunch of blow up posts about Suter after MIN got 2nd & 3rd no outs to open the second inning, but there wasn't even one. I'll chalk it up to being a Friday with nice-ish weather.
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It's a long season full of ups & downs. I will withhold final judgement on Ji Man for at least two more plate appearances.
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Arcia ditching the leg kick for a toe tap on that double.
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Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia? I wouldn't say they have nothing to do with Braun, just that his contributions (or lack thereof, I guess) have been overstated to this point. The triple slash & WAR numbers are ugly, but they are also devoid of context. Braun has the 2nd most RBI on the team. He has the best numbers on the team with men on base/RISP & the highest clutch rating on the team so far. His Win Probability Added of 0.40 is 5th on the team behind only Cain, Shaw, Yelich & Thames. While Braun has underperformed overall to this point, he has saved his hits for when they were most needed. I'm not suggesting he has some magical power to continue doing so into the future, but to cite him as a main reason for any perceived offensive woes seems unwarranted when you have guys like Sogard, Bandy, Arcia, Pina, Villar & even Domingo have negative WPAs (-2.72 combined) to accompany their underwhelming context free numbers.
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It's only a quarter of a season so I'm definitely willing to give Braun some more time, even though he has looked completely lost in some PAs. I know it's also not really instructive to take a small sample & parse it down into smaller samples, but Braun's splits so far this season are pretty interesting... Bases Empty (84 PA) 177/226/291 Men On Base (54 PA) 298/333/617 RISP (33 PA) 321/333/821 His RISP numbers are the best on the team & his Men On Base numbers are 2nd behind only Thames (1.488 OPS in 28 PAs with Men On Base) to this point. Of course it doesn't have any predictive value moving forward, but these things have happened & despite Braun's ugly overall line he has definitely won us some games so far.
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One reason a change of scenery could make Archer better would be that he no longer has to face designated hitters or stacked AL East lineups. (Career ERA of 5.49 in 105 IP against Boston & 5.10 in 107 IP against Baltimore). One reason a change of scenery might not make any difference at all is that Miller Park is much more favorable to hitters than is Tropicana Field. (Career ERA of 3.28 in 510 IP at the Trop for Archer). At this point I would rather put any prospect capital toward short term fixes at 2B or C & ride with the pitching in the organization. The only player I'd probably be ok with making an aggressive move for at the deadline would be Realmuto just because C is so thin throughout MLB. Would rather not pay the likely prospect price required to get Archer just because of the uncertainty surrounding the discrepancies between his actual results & underlying components that have persisted for the last 3+ seasons/600+ IP.
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There are 550 pitchers who have toed the rubber so far this season. Hader currently ranks tied for 15th in fWAR with a 1.3 mark in only 23 innings. Of the 14 pitchers with equal or higher fWAR the lowest IP anyone has is 44.1. To find a reliever of comparable value you have to go down to Aroldis Chapman who has totaled 1.1 fWAR (24th in MLB) thus far in only 18 innings. Some have argued that WPA (Win Probability Added) is actually a better way to value relievers than WAR. Hader currently ranks 5th in WPA with a 1.83 mark. The only 4 pitchers above him are Aaron Nola (2.06), Justin Verlander (2.06), Max Scherzer (2.25) & Jeremy Jeffress (2.25). I think he is currently providing enough value in the pen that there is no need to mess around with him in the rotation just yet.
