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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    John Sickels over at minorleagueball.com has been posting the lead up for his Brewers Top 20 list & gave the following grade break down in the preview post... B+: 3 B: 2 B-: 6 C+: 25 Guessing the higher grades will shake out like... B+: (Hiura, Burnes, Woodruff) B: (Maverick, Ortiz) B-: (Lutz, Clark, Ray, Peralta, Erceg, Dubon)
  2. sveumrules
    It is definitely interesting that between Dickerson & Souza the Rays just lost about 1200 projected PAs at RF/LF/DH when two of our more interesting trade chips are Domingo & Maverick who could easily fill those out. Those two plus Ortiz, Erceg & whoever they like in the Yamamoto range to round it out would probably be my best offer. Hiura, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta & Lutz would be off the table deal breakers for me. Reason being that as much as I like Archer & his contract, the ERA/FIP discrepancy for his career (11.9 bWAR vs 18.0 fWAR) & the last two years especially (3.0 bWAR vs. 7.8 fWAR) makes me wonder if there is something more than just "bad luck" there. On the one hand leaving the AL & AL East especially should theoretically help, but leaving Tropicana for Miller Park might eat into those gains just as much if not more.
  3. sveumrules
    Souza is a few million cheaper, has an extra year of control & has graded out as a plus defensive RF where Dickerson is more of a DH/meh defensive LF. Both guys tanked hard in the 2nd half too, for whatever that is or isn't worth. I think with how much value teams seem to be placing on defense that the closer a guy gets to that point of no return on the negative end of the spectrum, it really starts to hinder their value/potential market & Dickerson's bat isn't enough to overcome that.
  4. sveumrules
    If no trades are made & everyone is healthy coming into the season I'd look to divvy it up something like this... 1B: Thames (110) / Braun (52) LF: Yelich (120) / Braun (42) CF: Cain (136) / Yelich (26) RF: Domingo (136) / Braun (26) That's Thames (110), Braun (120), Lo/Do (136 each) & Yelich (146). Plenty of playing time for all five. (Would be even more games to go around with 162 DH)
  5. sveumrules
    Cobb had 179.1 innings last year, a career high. That ranked 37th in MLB. Of the 36 pitchers with more innings pitched, 20 had a lower FIP & 13 had a better ERA. If Cobb is able to approximate those numbers for the next 2-3 years he'll be fine on a 4 year deal. If he can somehow regain his 2013-14 form as he gets farther away from surgery he'd be an absolute steal on a 4 year deal.
  6. sveumrules
    Only 58 pitchers qualified for the ERA title this year, so even throwing 160 innings is pretty rare at this point. Less than 2 such pitchers per team on average. To get 150 pitchers on the 2017 leaderboard you need to set the minimum IP to 80. Just to take the cited 180 IP/3.75 ERA the closest to that in 2017 was Darvish who came in at 186.2 IP with a 3.86 ERA good for 3.5 fWAR, 17th in MLB. Probably the quickest/dirtiest way is to say the top 30 starters in 2017 posted between 3.2 & 7.7 fWAR, 31-60 posted between 2.3 & 3.1 fWAR, 61-90 posted between 1.4 & 2.3 fWAR, 91-120 posted between 1.0 & 1.4 fWAR & 121-150 posted between 0.6 & 1.0 fWAR. Based on those WAR totals I'd say Anderson & Davies are probably 2/3's with Jhoulys & Woodruff as 3/4's. Suter probably a 4/5.
  7. sveumrules
    If the season started today I think our 12 position players would be Pina, Vogt, Thames, Villar, Sogard, Perez, Arcia, Shaw, Braun, Yelich, Cain & Domingo. That would leave Maverick, Keon & Aguilar for a possible 13th spot or out in the cold. Still have a feeling someone(s) listed above is dealt before opening day, but I'd be fine rolling into the season with this group of position players if that's how it shakes out.
  8. sveumrules
    Highest I'd go is 3/75 with a vesting option for year four. The HR spike since he lost his good cutter plus the Cubs seeming disinterest plus being a 32 year old pitcher with a lot of work the last four seasons is too much risk to justify any more from a team with Milwaukee's resources. Even at that rate you're paying for about 9-10 WAR where I'd project Arrieta around 7-8 over the next three years with a pretty slim chance of exceeding that & a much greater chance of falling short of that.
  9. sveumrules
    My prediction for next winter is the big names all get paid & most will think that means everything is back to normal, but the middle class of free agents (which is pretty much where everyone in this class falls) will still get frozen out because there's no reason to pay market rate for average-ish players when there are so many cheaper options to provide similar value & increasingly fewer teams trying to compete in the present.
  10. sveumrules
    Great post, Reilly. There are a lot of factors at play this offseason, but for me it ultimately comes down to the MLBPA dropping the ball majorly in the last CBA negotiations. From 2011 (previous CBA) to 2016 MLB front offices/teams became much more analytically inclined as a group. To assume foolish FA contracts would be handed out in perpetuity when teams were clearly becoming more aligned in their valuation methods was a yuge oversight. Something resembling the NBA model with a salary cap/floor used to guarantee the players a set percentage of league revenues annually is what Tony Clark should have been angling for. Hope the players enjoy their four extra off days a year he negotiated for instead!
  11. sveumrules
    Ray was not an advanced college bat. He was a college bat & selected with a high pick, but he was always more of a tools guy than a production guy. I don't remeber the poster, but there was one who constantly mentioned how poor Ray's production was relative to other college OFs/high picks after he was selected.
  12. sveumrules
    As someone with first hand knowledge would you say that MLBPA leadership did the best job possible of guaranteeing their members' future prosperity during the 2016 CBA negotiations?
  13. sveumrules
    I think a major issue that hasn't really been talked about with regards to the current state of things is that MLB front offices (& in turn teams) became much more analytically inclined betwwen the 2011 & 2016 CBAs. During this same time MLBPA seemingly maintained the status quo & fell behind from an information standpoint. Never a good place to be in negotiations with billion$ at stake. MLB players had it the best economically of the three major sports for a long time but at this point they've been passed by the NBA, whose model they should attempt to emulate in some fashion. Salary cap/floor to ensure that players are guaranteed a certain % of league revenue each season. Good luck getting the owners to agree to that at this point.
  14. sveumrules
    Pitchers posted a -20 wRC+ in 2017. Catchers, 90. Shortstop, 92. There is a measurable difference & it is immense.
  15. sveumrules
    While I prefer the added strategy with pitchers hitting & do enjoy watching their attempts at doing so, NL clubs & batters are at a marked disadvantage with no DH. AL clubs have 600+ extra PAs at their disposal every season. Last year Brinson probably would've gotten 300-400 PAs if Milwaukee had a DH. Our current OF surplus is much less severe with a DH. A lineup of Cain | Yelich | Braun | Shaw | Domingo | Thames | Pina | 2B | Arcia would be a lot of fun. It's also more difficult than ever to hit MLB pitching. Last year pitchers posted a -20 wRC+, the worst of the modern era. 1974 was a high water mark, pitchers batted 165/208/204 (15 wRC+) with a 28.7 K%. Last year it was 125/157/153 with a 38.4 K%.
  16. sveumrules
    It's always ideal to use as much relevant information as possible to arrive at any given conclusion. It's also key to realize how the limitations of the information used can impact the conclusions drawn & their reliability. As long as you keep that in mind, WAR is actually good for quite a bit more than absolutely nothing, though clearly still far from infallible. WAR is certainly flawed but if we're using a single stat for some reason it's certainly more telling than previous placeholders like batting average or RBI or pitcher wins or ERA.
  17. sveumrules
    Santana has a -15 DRS/-15 UZR in 1,927 career RF innings compared to Braun who has a -9 DRS/-13 UZR in 2,287 career RF innings. According to the numbers Braun has been a better (less bad) RF than Santana to this point. Important to note Braun last played RF in 2015 & that Santana's defensive numbers improved from terrible in 2016 to merely below average in 2017. All that to say that Braun/Santana in RF for 2018 is probably pretty close to a wash defensively. I'm still of the mind that putting your best player (Yelich) in a position he's never played before even in the minors (RF) is not the best way to maximize his contributions but if DS/CC thinks that's the best alignment I'll still watch.
  18. sveumrules
    Archer MLB ranks, 2014-17... Games Started (133, 1st), Innings Pitched (809, 6th), fWAR (16.2, 12th), RA9-WAR (12.0, 29th). The results not matching his peripherals the last two seasons bothers me, especially since TB is generally a pretty good defensive team & because Tropicana is a much better pitcher's park than Miller Park. At the same time he'd be leaving the AL East so that should help mitigate things somewhat. Still think TB's spot on the win curve makes them less likely to be interested in Domingo as a headliner with Cleveland on paper seeming like a better match since they are set to win now.
  19. sveumrules
    Both Cain & Yelich are moving from home outfields with a lot of ground to cover to a comparatively smaller home outfield at Miller Park. Intuitively that seems like it would help to some degree, but the defensive metrics are so wonky that who really knows.
  20. sveumrules
    Mentioned this in the trade thread but Yelich is bottom 5 among all OF in arm rating by both DRS & UZR since his debut in 2013. He has never played an inning in RF in either the minors or majors. I do not believe he is an option in RF. If we do end up rolling with a primary OF of Braun/Yelich/Santana, I'd imagine that projects as one of the worst defensive OFs in MLB.
  21. sveumrules
    Yelich is 24th in MLB in Offensive value (+80) since he became a full time regular in 2014 per fangraphs. 29th in PAs (2539), 42nd in wRC+ (121, tied with Machado) & 20th in baserunning (+15).
  22. sveumrules
    I like that Stearns has been casting a wide net, but I just don't see Yelich fitting in our OF picture given that I believe the long term goal is to field three plus defensive OFs. Since his debut in 2013 Christian has been bottom 5 by both UZR & DRS in arm rating & even with all Stanton's various injuries never logged a single inning in right. He is not a RF. He has played 2,025 innings in CF grading out at -12 by DRS & -9 by UZR. Maybe some of that is the larger CF in Miami, but he likely projects as an average at best CF defensively even if you account for less ground to cover in Milwaukee & more realistically is a below average option in CF. In 3,535 career innings in LF Yelich has posted a +32 DRS & +12 UZR. He appears to be a well above average LF, which generally fits with his good speed/poor arm profile. Braun is pretty locked in LF. If the package is Brinson plus whatever else, a remaining OF of Braun/Yelich/Domingo would be below average across the board.
  23. sveumrules
    Lo's 15.5 K% last year would have been easily the best among our regulars with only Sogard (299 PAs) striking out less frequently out of all batters, so he definitely fits the mold of trying to make more contact. It's been pretty clear that some of the OF glut would be moved at some point this offseason it was just a matter of who & for what & when, so if this indicates the process is maybe getting closer to its end & we're about to see something(s) go down that's almost exciting.
  24. sveumrules
    This is actually much closer to a best case scenario than a worst case scenario as it assumes Rosen will stay healthy & productive throughout the duration of time you mentioned. It's far more likely he doesn't live up to the hype or is injured at some point along the way than it is he signs three franchise tenders.
  25. sveumrules
    Chacin was one of only 23 pitchers in all of MLB last season to throw 180 innings, with an ERA better than league average. I think the odds of any of Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, Ventura or Derby matching those numbers are extremely low.
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