sveumrules

I think I'd target Holland. You can guarantee him the closer spot & if he regains his past form could probably bring back the biggest return at the deadline of the guys still out there.

How could he have requested an exception for a condition he didn't know he had? Jeffress failed his tests between 2006 & 2009. The condition was not diagnosed until 2013.

Right. Fowler & Chapman are both being paid at market value. Thornburg, Shaw, Dubon & Pennington are all being paid well under market value. That was why I thought it was an interesting comparison valuewise.

Fowler & Chapman signed very similar contracts. If the market values the most dominant reliever in the game about the same as an above average position player does that mean a reliever with a much shorter track record of success is worth about the same as an averagish position player & a couple prospects of varying intrigue?

There are only two possible explanations - true drug addiction or utter stupidity. Jeffress smoked in an effort to treat seizures resulting from an undiagnosed case of juvenile epilepsy, so there are more than two possible explanations, though I agree the two you listed are the most likely.

Contenders aren't looking at stats like WAR though when trading for relief pitchers who may only throw 50-65 innings. No doubt. It's possible that if Thornurg stays healthy & dominant all year & the Red Sox make the playoffs he will provide more value in one month of postseason play than six months of regular season innings. I don't really like WAR that much for relievers either, but it is the best we have for comparing production between pitchers & position players. It's hard for me to buy that a third baseman with a good half season & an okay full season "hasn't had any real success at the major league level" but a relief pitcher with one good half season, one good full season & three middling seasons has.

In my my opinion venturing past 350 PAs for your minimum is going to lead to inaccurate stats. At that point you are adding a bunch of players with fairly small sample sizes and bench players/utility players that really shouldn't be apart of grading out a starter(like Shaw). Really it is just flat out wrong. The more you play the more WAR you are going to be able to rack up. Obviously Bregmann who got called up late is going to have less WAR and guys who don't play every day won't be able to have a high WAR. I used 30 IP & 200 PAs as the cutoffs because Thornburg had 34 IP in 2015 & Shaw had 248 PAs. As neither player qualified I had to set the minimum at those numbers to get them to appear on the leaderboards. It also makes the fact that Shaw was a middle of the pack 1B or 3B in only half a season all the more impressive. Of the 25 3B & 19 1B with a higher fWAR than Shaw in 2015 none had fewer plate appearances. If he can regain his 2015 form he should have no problem being an average regular with a full season. I don't think anyone is bashing Shaw at all. The only reason I compared their career WARs was in response to paul253's assertion that "none of them, including Shaw I'd argue, have had any real success at the major league level."

The only point I was trying to make was that in his 2 seasons Shaw has provided value roughly equivalent with that provided by Thornburg over his 5 seasons. Tyler had a much better 2016, no doubt. Even then though his career high of 2.0 WAR was barely above the 1.5 accrued by Shaw in a down season. Both players played in 2015 too. Among 210 relievers with at least 30 IP Thornburg's -0.3 fWAR ranked 192nd. Shaw's 1.5 fWAR ranked 26th among 53 third basemen with at least 200 PAs or 21st of 50 first basemen with at least 200 PAs, since that is where he played most of his 2015 innings. Did you leave out that information because it didn't fit the argument you wanted to make?

No doubt getting shuffled around in different roles altered Tyler's developmental path. I'd be really curious if it was his decision or the organization's (or arrived upon collaboratively) to go back to starting in 2015 after he came back from the elbow issue that ended his 2014. If he had gone right back into the bullpen after his impressive showing to start 2014 it might have accelerated his ascension instead of spending 4 months struggling as a starter in Colo Springs.

If you try to estimate Thornburg's trade value over the years it was probably pretty high around 2012 when he was #100 on Baseball America's prospect list. 2013 was terrible in AAA but pretty excellent in the Majors so it probably stayed static, maybe a slight tick up if a team believed in the Major League results. 2014 trade value bottomed out after being shut down with an elbow injury. 2015 climbed back up a little just by getting back on the mound though the results were terrible in AAA & merely solid in MLB. 2016 jumped up quite a bit by staying healthy for a full MLB season for the first time & display upper tier results. Of course it could have climbed even more with another 3-4 months of healthy, upper tier relief work, but I'd say Stearns & company definitely sold Thorny at the highest point his value has been in the last five years.

2013: Terrible in AAA, excellent in 66 MLB IP. 2014: Excellent for a month and a half in MLB, shut down with elbow. 2015: Terrible in AAA, solid in 34 MLB IP. There have been flashes for sure, but Tyler has been in the Majors for parts of five seasons now and 2016 was the first time he pitched in all six calendar months. He is the perfect example of the volatility of relief pitchers with glimpses of his potential here & there sandwiched around injury & underperformance. Shaw has produced 3.4bWAR & 3.0 fWAR in parts of two major league seasons. Thornburg has produced 4.2 bWAR & 2.6 fWAR in parts of five seasons. If Shaw hasn't had any real success at the MLB level than Thornburg hasn't had that much if any more.

& if Thornburg's elbow doesn't blow up & if he maintains the upper tier results he's really only produced for one season... One nice thing about the deal is that our risk is spread among three players; an MLB 3B who produced similar value in a down year as Thornburg did in a career year, a middle infielder who has consistently displayed above average results despite being young at every stop along the way and a lottery ticket pitcher with a live arm. All the risk for the Red Sox is wrapped up in a relief pitcher with as many top flight full seasons as elbow related shutdowns.

Pretty interesting interview of Thronburg conducted by Burke Badenhop over at MLBTR... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/tyler-thornburg-trade-chat-burke-badenhop-red-sox-brewers-interview.html The comment that stuck out for me was Tyler mentioned being yanked around between starting & relieving with the Brewers. I always thought the Garza signing threw a big wrench in any possibility Thorny ever had of being a starter. His 2013 AAA number were pretty bad but he was dominant in his MLB time finishing the season with three straight scoreless relief appearances followed by four straight quality starts for a 1.95 ERA in 27 innings over that stretch. Small sample sure, but given his pedigree that probably put him in line for a pretty good shot at a 2014 rotation spot to open the season before Garza was signed. Instead, he got pushed to the bullpen where Running Ron ran his arm into the ground after he got off to a blistering start. Would be really curious to know if it was his decision or the organization's to go back to starting with Colo Springs in 2015 as he struggled there in that role before transitioning back to the pen in MLB to close the season and taking off from there. Overall a great example of how progress rarely occurs in constant ascension.

You can't use a stat in a way you know isn't accurate and expect an accurate outcome. How am I using the stat inaccurately? Eaton's WAR values the last three years have been 5.2/3.9/6.2 via BRef & 3.1/3.7/6.0 via FG. Even if you consider Eaton's RF defense last year such a huge outlier that it should be disregarded entirely he still would have put up around 4 WAR in either system with a zero defensive rating last year instead of the +22 he posted. From that information I have ballparked his future mean WAR at 3 in an effort to estimate his surplus value. I have regressed his WAR from what he has already demonstrated as a baseline even though he is still at an age where he should not be expected to decline anytime soon & even though he has been one of the most consistent offensive players in the game the last three years (OBPs of 362, 361, 362 & wRC+s of 118, 119, 115). If anything a 3 WAR estimate might be too low considering his track record, age & going to what is generally considered a weaker league.

WAR is a single number that should never be used as anything but a quick and dirty reference. That is all I am using it as. As a quick & dirty reference it shows that Eaton was an above average CF even with average to below average defense. It is especially poor to use it when said WAR is heavily defense skewed. It treats offense and defense equally yet they are not equal in a player's true value. WAR does not treat offense & defense equally, they are on entirely different scales as the number of opportunities and impact of those opportunities is different. Last year batting WAR among qualifiers ranged from 58.3 runs (Mike Trout) to -29.9 runs (Adeiny Hechavarria). Fielding WAR ranged from 22.5 runs (Adam Eaton) to -19.7 runs (Alexei Ramirez). Even the best fielder is only credited with about the same value as the 29th best hitter. Is it plausible that the very best defenders in any given season provide as much value to their team in the field as a top 30 or so hitter provides his team at the plate? I believe that is in the ballpark.

Heyward is about as close a comp as you will find for Eaton. In the three seasons before he signed an 8 year, 184 million dollar contract Heyward hit 274/353/415 good for a 116 wRC+. Over the last three seasons Eaton has hit 290/362/422 good for a 117 wRC+. Heyward is younger & has a better track record on defense, but if the market valued his skill set at 8/184 it's pretty easy to see why Eaton is a massive bargain at 5/38.

Fangraphs had 17 qualified first basemen for 2016. Carter ranked 14th by DRS & 15th by UZR. On a team level DRS had Brewers 1B 22nd of 30 and UZR had Brewers 1B dead last. We didn't have an individual qualifier at 3B but on a team level Brewers 3B ranked 12th of 30 in DRS & 19th of 30 in UZR. In 851 innings at 3B last year DRS had Shaw at +10 & UZR had him at +1.

What sense does it make to trade for a guy who's defense is a significant part of his value then move him to a position where his defense isn't very good? As a CF with average to bad defense Eaton put up 3.1/3.7 fWAR & 5.2/3.9 bWAR in 2014/15. Werth is also a free agent after this year so they could move him back to a corner for 2018 if they are unhappy with his CF defense. Even if he in only a 3 WAR player moving forward that is worth 125 million over the next 5 years without factoring in inflation. With a 5/38 deal that is about 85 million in surplus value, closer to 100 million when you factor in likely FA inflation over the next 5 years.

I only quoted Dubon's AA numbers as a point of reference to illustrate that he has already exhibited better results at a higher level than Erceg or Diaz while being similar in age. I'm not saying it is proof of anything other than that he at least belongs in the conversation with them. Sure the sample is small, but it is larger than the sample that we have for Erceg at A ball and at a much higher level of competition to boot, so if anything it should be slightly more reliable than Erceg's data. Below is a stop by stop breakdown of Dubon's minor league performance as it relates to K%, BABIP & wRC+. TL,DR version is every year he has been 1.5 to 3.3 years young for his level while exhibiting top flight K% & above average BABIP & wRC+ marks at each stop along the way. 2014: Age 19, 2 years younger than average in New York Penn League. 77 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 9.5 representing the lowest mark in the league. His BABIP of .341 ranked 22nd of those 77 players. His wRC+ of 114 was 36th of those 77 players. Of the 35 players with a higher wRC+ than Dubon only 5 were the same age or younger. 2015: Age 20, 1.6 years younger than average in Sally League. 156 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 13.0 ranking 26th. His BABIP of .337 was 44th of those 156 players. His wRC+ of 123 was 30th of those 156 players. Of the 29 players with a higher wRC+ than Dubon only 7 were the same age or younger. 2015: Age 20, 2.7 years younger than average in Carolina League. 89 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 14.1 ranking 19th. His BABIP of .320 ranked 35th of those 89 players. His wRC+ of 100 was 52nd of those 89 payers. Of the 51 players with a higher wRC+ than Dubon only 4 were the same age or younger 2016: Age 21, 1.5 years younger than average in Carolina League. 88 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 9.0 once again representing the lowest mark in the league. His BABIP of .338 ranked 28th of those 88 players. His wRC+ of 118 ranked 25th of those 88 players. Of the 24 players with a higher wRC+ only 10 were the same age or younger. 2016: Age 21, 3.3 years younger than average in Eastern League. 144 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 13.4 ranking 25th. His BABIP of .374 ranked 14th of those 144 players. His wRC+ of 151 ranked 8th of those 144 players. Of the 7 players with a higher wRC+ only 2 were the same age or younger.

No doubt, the crazy UZR/DRS number is RF last year drove Eaton's WAR surge, but even as a CF with average to bad defense he put up 3.1/3.7 fWAR & 5.2/3.9 bWAR in 2014/15. He may not be an "800 OPS" guy but his batting line has been 15-20% better than league average each of the last three years due to a well above average OBP & he also is a top 25 baserunner in the league. Say he is only a 3 win player moving forward. Without accounting for inflation that is worth about 125 million over the next five years putting his surplus value around 85 million dollars. Based on the research on prospect surplus value published by Point of Pittsburgh & preseason BA rankings Giolito is worth about 70 million in surplus value with Lopez worth another 15.5. Dunning hasn't made a top 100 yet but as a first round pick with some success at A ball already it is probably around 5-10 million or so. So maybe 90-100 million in surplus value coming back.

Of course they did. I would never project anyone for a .374 BABIP. At the same time Dubon has run BABIPs in the .320-.340 range throughout his minor league career so he's demonstrated an ability to leverage his frequent contact to his advantage thus far. Erceg & Diaz had BABIPs of .325 & .332 in A ball last year while making far less contact than Dubon. Do you think that is representative of their true talent or likely to regress as they move up the ladder and face more advanced pitching?

Eaton has essentially 3/20 guaranteed on his deal. With the options exercised it could be 5/38. So he's cheap. His last three years have been worth 3.1, 3.7 & 6.0 fWAR. His OBP those three years have been 362, 361 & 362 with wRC+ marks of 118, 119 & 115 so the error bars around his offensive projections are much smaller. Teams like consistency. His WAR exploded last year as both UZR & DRS had him +20 in RF, I imagine Washington will play him in CF where he hasn't graded out as highly in the past. Let's say he is a 2.5-3.0 true talent WAR player going forward. That is worth about 20-25 million a year on the free agent market or around 100-125 million over the five years he is under control so his surplus value comes in pretty safely in the range of 60-85 million.

Dubon may not be elite but at age 21 in the Eastern League he managed a K% less than 15% with an ISO north of .150. The only other players in the EL to match those numbers at age 21 since 2010 are Lonnie Chisenhall, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benitendi & Dominic Smith. Pretty nice company. Isan Diaz put up a 143 wRC+ as a 20 year old in A ball this year. Lucas Erceg put up a 139 wRC+ in A ball as a 21 year old. Dubon just put up a 151 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old. Sure Diaz & Erceg profile with better power, but they also both swing and miss quite a bit (21.1 K% for Lucas, 25.2 K% for Isan). What Dubon lacks in power by comparison he makes up for with better speed, defense (both ability & versatility), and markedly better contact skills, 13.4K% as a 21 year old in AA. Posters seem to generally be pretty high on both Diaz & Erceg, I don't see why Dubon wouldn't generate similar levels of excitement.

Hoping some of the more economically inclined posters who were chiming in on the financial ramifications of the Thames deal can maybe help me with this question. So the reason Sale was so valuable in the first place is because he's been a consistent top 5-10 starter in MLB for five years in a row & has an extremely reasonable contract. Doesn't factoring in the $64 million acquisition cost the Red Sox paid for Moncada into the equation kind of cancel out the extremely reasonable contract portion of Sale's value?

And again it's not like he was a bad pitcher who just had a good year. He's been a pretty solid pitcher his entire career. I've enjoyed following Thorny since he was drafted, but 2016 was the first time his results matched his talent for more than a handful of appearances. From 2013-15 there were 209 relievers with at least 80 innings, Tyler's 87.2 were 195th. His ERA of 3.70 ranked 140th. His FIP of 4.35 ranked 188th. His -0.2 WAR ranked 187th.