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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    How many pitchers do you think cracked 90 MPH in Goose's day? 95MPH? 100 MPH? Average fastball velocity in 2001 was 89.9, in 2015 it was 92.1. Roll that back another 30 years to when Goose debuted and I'd guess the average fastball was probably under 85 MPH. The funniest thing to me about Goose's comments are his complete lack of self awareness. He is a reliever in the Hall of Fame. If the game had never changed from the "good old days" of pitchers being real men and finishing what they started there never would have been a need for shutdown relievers in the first place and his soapbox would be non-existent.
  2. sveumrules
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-positional-ball-in-play-retrospective-rf/ Tony Blengino has been doing a position by position look at batted ball authority over at fangraphs and today breaks down the data for right fielders with Braun having the best profile among NL right fielders.
  3. sveumrules
    People would have said the same thing about Michael Brantley or Lorenzo Cain had anyone rated them that highly following their age 22 seasons. It may not be likely that Reed ever performs up to that rating, but there is also a non-zero chance that he does. Reed (Age 22) AA: 278/379/422 122 wRC+ AAA: 246/351/381 100 wRC+ Brantley (Age 22) AAA: 267/350/361 100 wRC+ Cain (Age 22) A+: 287/358/448 128 wRC+ AA: 277/363/486 125 w RC+
  4. sveumrules
    Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs chimes in with his rankings. Looks like he is they high guy on Reed & the low guy on Lara/Nottingham. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/
  5. sveumrules
    Laughing Maverick bobble coming in 2017.
  6. sveumrules
    Right, Davis ranks 142nd out of 332 players in RBI percentage with at least 250 runners on over the last two years. Not horrible, not elite, but above the median so clearly not BAD. By better, I meant just that. Players that are (or in a couple cases have very recently been) good hitters. I've pasted the same list I posted previously with the player's RBI percentages replaced by their wRC+. Albert Pujols 120, Alex Gordon 122, Nelson Cruz 147, Chase Utley 92, Anthony Rendon 119, AJ Pollock 133, Evan Longoria 108, Curtis Granderson 120, Manny Machado 126, Carlos Santana 119, Yasiel Puig 135, Jason Heyward 115, Ben Zobrist 120, Yadier Molina 90, Carlos Beltran 108.
  7. sveumrules
    Other players with at least 500 runners on over the last 2 seasons with percentages in the same range as Khris include Albert Pujols 14.86, Alex Gordon 14.75, Nelson Cruz 14.46, Chase Utley 14.39, Anthony Rendon 14.36, AJ Pollock 14.26, Evan Longoria 14.17, Curtis Granderson 14.00, Manny Machado 13.73, Carlos Santana 13.57, Yasiel Puig 13.56, Jason Heyward 13.53, Ben Zobrist 13.51, Yadier Molina 13.46, Carlos Beltran 13.45, etc, etc. So looking simply at RBI% it would appear many of the games better players are pretty BAD.
  8. sveumrules
    The link you provided to Flores' Steamer projection has him down for a 100 wRC+ with a walk rate and on base percentage which are both above 2015's MLB average. If you can't see how that type of production would be valuable for a 4th OF, then we have a very different definition of the word value.
  9. sveumrules
    I agree that Flores is at best a 4th OF, but every team needs a good 4th OF & it is especially nice when that 4th OF compliments the handedness of your likely starting corner OFs. Also, he is no longer hurt. "Flores has completed his recovery from a broken ankle, and is a full-go as spring training begins, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports."
  10. sveumrules
    Except Michael Reed bats righty & Flores bats lefty which (assuming all else is more or less equal) gives Flores an edge with two righty batters atop the current corner outfield depth chart.
  11. sveumrules
    I'd say you are reading too much into it. The quoted passage says... "Brewers manager Craig Counsell considers Aaron Hill the favorite to start at third base this season." Reading the actual blogpost at JSonline I do not see that quote contained anywhere therein & the headline currently reads "Aaron Hill will get chance to be Brewers third baseman." Now if it said "Brewers manager Craig Counsell declares Aaron Hill the opening day third baseman this season." I could see potential cause for concern...
  12. sveumrules
    Rule 5 pick Colin Walsh. Career minor league OBP of .395 with a .447 mark last year.
  13. sveumrules
    While the talent level of a team has the most influence over the number of games a team wins or loses, there is still enough noise in the signal (namely sequencing of events), that a team's win total alone tells you about as much about that team's "true talent level" as the number of wins a pitcher has tells you about his "true talent level". The best measure of a team's "true talent level" is probably their baseruns record, which is essentially a more nuanced version of pythagorean record that looks deeper than just runs scored/runs surrendered. Take for instance pre-season WS favorites Washington & predicted AL Central cellar dwellers Minnesota last year. Both ended with identical 83-79 records even though the Nationals scored 68 more runs than their opponents over the course of the season compared to Minnesota scoring 4 less runs than their opponents. By pythagorean record the Nationals would have been expected to go 89-73 & the Twins would have been expected to go 81-81. Using BaseRuns the disparity in actual versus theoretical record grows even wider with Washington ending up at a 90-72 expected record with the more nuanced methodology against 73-89 for the Twins. So why did the Twins who everyone thought was a worse team coming into the season, had a worse run differential and looked even worse under the baseruns microscope finish with the same record as what by all indicators appears to be a more talented Washington team? Clutch performance, namely. On both the pitching side (MIN +0.82, WAS -3.44) & batting side (MIN +3.81, WAS -3.50) Minnesota largely outpaced Washington.
  14. sveumrules
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/2/17/11008934/arizona-diamondbacks-top-20-prospects-for-2016 Sickels released his top 20 Arizona prospects today so I thought it seemed like a good time to give this thread a bump. Current tallies! Gerardo Parra | 1.8 bWAR in 146 career game with Milwaukee. Traded for Zach Davies. Mitch Haniger | 163wRC+ in 226 A+ PA's then 107 wRC+ in 174 AA PA's in 2015. Not ranked on Sickels list. 25 years old & should get his first AAA at bat this year. Anthony Banda | 15th on Sickels list. Grade C+. "4th Starter Potential." Will be 22 for most of the summer and likely open in AA.
  15. sveumrules
    If you buy into analytics you know that any preseason projection is just that, a preseason projection. The error bars around such projections are quite large for a number of reasons. That said, the fangraphs link you provided for the Brewers currently has them projected for 69 wins which is more games than they won last year. Assuming the projection is accurate and the Brewers are a 69 win true talent level team I'd expect them to win anywhere between 59 & 79 games depending on how the season plays out. With that wide of a range of possibilities it is in no way "downright goofy" to say that the Brewers "could" win more games than last year.
  16. sveumrules
    Not receiving any major league ready talent in the Davis/Lind trades has no bearing on the W/L record of the major league team in 2016 since they won't be replaced by the players received. The difference in the projections between Domingo Carter & Khris Lind is hardly large enough to constitute tanking. There is also a very real chance the replacements out produce the departed.
  17. sveumrules
    The term "rebuilding" entered the sports lexicon long before the term "tanking" did. Therefore, if either of the two is being "repackaged" it would be rebuilding repackaged as tanking, and not the other way around.
  18. sveumrules
    If you compare where the system is at now to where it was at for the last rebuild when Melvin took over coming into 2003 I think we are in a much better position now. When Doug came on we had five BA top 100 guys with Brad Nelson, Prince, Mike Jones, Ben Hendrickson & Hart with guys like Hardy & Parra lurking just outside. There was an impending Richie Sexson trade! We ended up picking top five the next three seasons yielding Weeks, Mark Rogers (Yo 2nd round) & Braun. Compare that to now where we have pretty much four consensus top 100 guys in Arcia, Maverick, Lopez & Clark plus fringe 100 guys like Hader, Nottingham, Lara & Diaz with enough depth behind them to be considered a top 5ish farm system. There is an impending Lucroy trade probably. We have a top 5 pick (& more importantly spending pool) this year & likely next. We've spent internationally & look to be doing more in the future. The organization has made great strides in developing pitching in the last 10 years. I'm optimistic this rebuild will yield more than a wild card berth & NL Central Championship.
  19. sveumrules
    I don't think Braun has much surplus value at this point, he's really only had one good season in the last three and is still owed 5/95. If he has another year like last year (140ish games, 130ish wRC+) I think he would have some positive value because then he's had two good seasons in a row & is then down to 4/76 owed. On the other hand, he has a limited no trade now & I believe will get his 5/10 rights after this season. With payroll projecting to be low the next few years, no clear 1B prospect in the system & maybe even the DH coming to the NL at some point I'd be fine if the Brewers keep him around, especially if he's still relatively healthy/productive.
  20. sveumrules
    I know the OF is crowded but I think Stokes ends up in Wisco. Caught a few Helena games this summer and thought that he had the most advanced approach on the team after Clark. They're also generally listed a couple two tree inches apart but looked almost the exact same height to mine eyes.
  21. sveumrules
    Love the trade. Have always been a fan of Chase Anderson's change up, pure filth. Also wanted to throw in that I took in four Helena/Missoula games this summer and was really impressed by Diaz. Kid seemed to have a pretty good idea what he was doing at the plate and a real knack for barreling up/making hard contact.
  22. sveumrules
    With the acquisition of Chase Anderson we now have 8 very solid candidates for the MLB rotation in him, Garza, Peralta, Nelson, Jungmann, Davies, Lopez & Hader. Even with the likelihood that Lopez & Hader open in Colorado Springs we still have 6 legit options for the rotation. With Colorado recently acquiring Jake McGee from Tampa it seems they may be targeting pitchers with big fastballs & questionable secondary stuff as possible Coors Field fits. Enter Wily Peralta. Over the last 3 seasons Wily's fastball velocity of 95.1 ranks 7th among starters, his usage of 66.2% ranks 18th among starters and to top it off his groundball % of 52.2% has ranked 15th among starters. Seems like a perfect fit for Colorado. Speaking of perfect fits, enter Ryan McMahon. Currently blocked at third in Colorado by Arenado he would fit nicely in our system which lacks a clear cut top end 3B prospect. McMahon put up a 147 wRC+ is 251 rookie ball PA's in 2013, followed by a 137 wRC+ in 552 A ball PA's in 2014 and then a 141 wRC+ in 445 A+ ball PA's in 2015. Not sure what Peralta's value is at coming off an injured/down 2015 but I'd be willing to add a couple lower end pieces if necessary to get McMahon into the system.
  23. sveumrules
    None, including Lucroy. He was quoted as saying, "I'm not going to sit here and say we're going to compete for the playoffs this year." Like yfinn6 said, I don't think this news is breaking to any paying customers. Plus, there is a big difference between what Lucroy is quoted as saying and saying the team "sucks", imo anyway. He also wasn't quoted anywhere in the article saying "the team should just trade him". It specifically mentions that Lucroy has not demanded a trade.
  24. sveumrules
    If we're dealing with Arizona I really liked what I saw from Isan Diaz when I was in Montana this summer. Thought he was right there with Trent Clark for the best player I saw while I was out there.
  25. sveumrules
    Lucroy seems like a perfect fit for TB. Don't think we could get Snell but maybe 2 or 3 of Guerrieri/Honeywell/Faria/Bauers could be the foundation for a deal. Even though he's never lived up to the hype of being the first pick I've always liked Beckham too.
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