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Cool Hand Lucroy

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Everything posted by Cool Hand Lucroy

  1. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Feel really good for Helle. He has been so good for my Jets so many times, and the playoff choker narrative is oppressive. Nice to have him as hero versus a Chuckie. A great hockey game. Feel for Canadian fans. That was a heartbreaker, and 3v3 is such a hard way to lose that kind of game. Puck gets hung up just a little bit with Werenski, and there's a cross ice pass for an easy goal. You kind of felt, this whole tournament, if Canada kept falling behind and struggling to put away teams, it was going to catch up with them. They deserved this win by the numbers and game flow, but that's hockey. Hard to build a huge narrative around random bounces, but I am sure many will try. All I know is, despite having some complicated feelings, that was an incredible athletic event.
  2. Cool Hand Lucroy
    I don't think they still do. The S curve is supposed to determine all seedings. Teams get ranked 1-68 and then put on the corresponding seed lines (1-4 to 1, 5-8 to 2, etc.). Teams can only be moved up or down a line to fit bracketing principles like avoiding regular season matchups and games within the same conference. Travel might be a consideration too. Worse teams get worse seeds and only moved if it's necessary to avoid violating a specific bracket rule. Badgers slight dogs tonight, in a desperation spot for OSU.
  3. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Benetti (who I like, but is drifting into self-parody territory along with Ian Eagle) said something to this effect on the broadcast, and it is absolutely a cliche. But the Badgers are definitely a team NO ONE wants to see in their pod in the NCAAT. When you watch them every game, you see what the computers are missing. Boyd and Blackwell are really really good, and the other pieces fit together. Their defense has really improved, but the strength of recent competition is keeping the computers from fully pricing it in. If they end up on the 8-line, they'll be under seeded. Heck, this team feels like a 4 or 5 based on ability, even if the resume doesn't match. You could convince me they'd be under seeded as a 6. Two true road wins against top-5 teams is a nightmare even for your Houstons and Dukes. I fully expect a lot of dark horse Sweet 16 commentary if they keep this up. Of course, the Badgers could grab four more big wins in the next couple of weeks and turn into much less of a dark horse, too. Or lose three in a row. Basketball is weird. Just seems like a team with a clear ceiling (they go as far as the guards take them), but a really high floor.
  4. Cool Hand Lucroy
    I saw the backcourt violation in real-time as well. I remember Koenig have something similar happen in an NCAAT game I think? Just bringing the ball up a bit casually. It did feel like a quick start to the shot clock, and I'm not sure if Boyd had one point (the ball, maybe?) over the line at 20, but he certainly wasn't across until 19. Putting that in the "evens out" category after Indiana. I thought Illinois really got away from ball movement and post up action late in the game as well. It was a lot of just high ball screen, let Wagler either step back or drive, and live with whatever he puts up. He was great again tonight, but very high usage rate late. If not for Humrichous hitting a ridiculous three late, this is a more comfortable win. Controversial, maybe, but I thought the Badgers handled the last possession of regulation reasonably well. Blackwell ran down the clock, and got a decent look (he made a similar one in OT). In that instance, I think the denial of another possession for Illinois is worth the lower percentage shot, especially since a two-point lead still puts you in jeopardy. 2-1 before the next West Coast trip would be excellent for this team. Have to think a 6-7 seed is the absolute ceiling, but it's certainly in play. Be nice to avoid the 8-9 line, as always. I'd rather be a 10.
  5. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Whoa. That looked done and dusted a few times for the Illini (and once for us). Massive, massive win. 1-1 on this trip is a good result, and if you were only getting 1, this is by far the one you'd pick. I loved the willingness of Rapp and Janicki (who missed his, but still) to shoot down the stretch. Even though the Badgers defer to Boyd and Blackwell, other guys are going to take open looks. Huge winning play from Winter to secure an OReb and call TO late. I give massive, massive credit to Carrington for knocking down two huge free throws. Not only that, but his defense on Wagler was excellent down the stretch. Badgers were totally comfortable switching Winter on Wagler too, and Nolan was up to the task. Genuinely well done. A team win.
  6. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Like others, I need a bit more time with this one, but, without getting into evaluation of what I think, I'd say the following things are true: 1) The FO has earned some trust. 2) Clearly, there's belief that Durbin has reached his peak value and now's a good time to cash in. 3) Stockpiling controllable pitchers (and pitching depth) makes a lot of sense for a team like the Brewers. 4) They're operating on "best player available" principles, not really worrying about position and just acquire as much talent as possible. I think this largely makes sense given their position in the market and the rising positional flexibility of today's INFs. A lot comes down to how much people value Durbin/Mona and how much faith they have in the Brewers to make these two pitchers into something worthwhile. I think this will work out for us from a WAR perspective. If no other moves are made, though, it also means we're going to be rolling through infielders and hoping prospects are ready to contribute ahead of schedule. I think we got more talented today. I'm not sure, though, we got BETTER. That's the part I need more thinking on.
  7. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Indiana really got away from posting Alexis against Boyd in down the stretch too. We had Winter switched out on Enright a bunch of times, and he insisted on taking contested mid-range shots. This goes in the bucket with the Villanova game for me. It's just one you're going to wish you won, even if you didn't play anywhere near your best game. Flip two possessions, and this Badger team is 4-3 in Q1 instead of 2-5. That's a big difference in terms of how comfortable you feel about tourney participation and seeding. It's also just the nature of CBB. Have to admire the effort, never feeling like they were out of it. Great play in the last few minutes to take the lead. Just couldn't hold on. For all the talk about the refs (certainly warranted), Carrington's final heave was one of the worst decisions I've seen by a player this year. Of all the things you can do with a basketball in that spot, including call timeout, shooting was absolutely the wrong choice. You can kind of see why a guy with that level of talent has bounced around. I think he's super valuable. But it comes with a lot of half-baked choices.
  8. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Ultimately, we were up 72-68 with a minute left. Scored 5 points in the last six minutes. Gotta do better than that to get Ws on the road, especially against NCAAT-level competition.
  9. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Not just the final two calls, either. Soft fouls on Blackwell at the end, Boyd never getting calls, missed travel on Alexis in regulation. Ugh. Hard to win 5 on 8. Badgers really locked down defensively over the last 5 minutes. If they play with that level of intensity and effort, they'll be fine. Lots of opportunities left.
  10. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Ditto on Enright. His complete domination of Boyd on both ends of the floor is the difference so far in this one. So far, Badgers are in the game despite a poor performance. Hope they can get it together for the last 15.
  11. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Might be one where it's just whoever hits more threes wins. Modern basketball. I'm not at all impressed by DeVries defensively, so maybe the Badgers can get to the rim with some consistency and hang in even if they're not shooting lights out. These teams feel similar to me not just in terms of their overall season momentum (played reasonably well early, hit a little skid, have picked up some big wins in recent weeks) or their general style (reliant on guards and threes), but in terms of their NCAAT standing. The Badgers probably have the better profile (2-8 in Q1 is not great for Indiana, though they are higher in the computers) by virtue of the win @Michigan. The Gophers sliding up to 72 in the NET helps a lot; hope they can stay there, even if it shows some of the fuzziness of the quadrant system (speaking of which, was happy to see Minnesota get a W; they were due a big one). All of that makes tomorrow's game a huge opportunity for both teams. Both are on the right side of the bubble, but not by a ton. Not at all surprised the Badgers are road dogs, but 4.5 feels a TOUCH high to me. Man, tomorrow is going to be like drinking from a fire hose. Olympics all day and a crapload of great hoops. Real excited for it!
  12. Cool Hand Lucroy
    The thing I like so much about Boyd is that he really doesn't force as much as some guys his type. He's pretty efficient for a guy with the ball in his hands as much as he has it. Drawing fouls is a big part of that, but he's also good at finding the right pass from underneath the hoop when he gets stuck. You'd expect that from a Dusty May/Brian Dutcher guy. I can see why the staff saw something in him. I don't think Boyd is a Devin Harris level player, but that's the Badger PG he most reminds me of. They have the ball a lot. They distribute well. They get to the line. Doubt Boyd will have nearly as successful a pro career, but they strike me as similar college players.
  13. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Good analysis, as usual. Lots of teams have really been trying to go zone against us, and, honestly, we haven't looked great against it. But when you've got a tertiary scorer like Rapp stepping up and having a big half, it really, really helps. Carrington absolutely belongs as an athlete, and he's a big part of this team's backcourt advantage. There aren't many teams that can throw three guys as good as him, Boyd, and Blackwell. The blueprint for beating the Badgers just has to be shutting down the driving lanes, slowing the pace, probably throwing in a few different looks defensively, and hoping you don't have Winter, Rapp, or JB get hot from deep. Impressed with what Janicki's brought in a Showalter (Showalter+, probably) kind of role. That was nice today when Rohde couldn't go. Now's when we find out what this team is made of. Mid-week bye before trips to Bloomington and Champaign. Get a split there, and you're feeling good. Gotta figure 3-2 in the next five puts them in darn good shape for a bid. Any better and you're getting closer to avoiding the 8-9 line.
  14. Cool Hand Lucroy
    A weird thirty minutes of hoops, considering the last 10 of the USC game and the first 20 of this one. Glad they managed to pull it out. The win @Michigan is still carrying this profile, but they'll have 7 Q1 opportunities in their last ten, and the home game against OSU is borderline. Could rise to that level if the Buckeyes string some wins together. Difficult as it is for some (I've come around on Gopher hoops post-Pitno--even the Ben Johnson teams played hard and together in the face of a lot of adversity), we should be big Minnesota fans the rest of the way. Be helpful if they could finish the year top 75 in NET (83 now). Where the Badgers sit, every Q1 win matters. Going to be hard to keep them out if they even get to 3 or 4 of them. The only serious CAN'T LOSE game from here on is the home date with Maryland. Other losses will simply be missed opportunities. Still, it's a weird situation. The Badgers could close 4-6, feel like they're not playing great, and drastically improve their tournament standing. The back half of this schedule is loaded, which is why the disastrous 4th quarter against USC still stings.
  15. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Well, that's not the Badgers the best win of the year, but it's probably their most impressive performance. Never sneeze at any road win. Getting one by 30 is great. Right now, this team is playing very well and playing together. If they continue to put in this kind of effort, their bracket standing is going to be a lot better than the 8-10 range they're currently showing up in mocks.
  16. Cool Hand Lucroy
    One hope I have here is that it ends the Turang to SS idea, which I hated when it was broached last year in ST and hate just as much now. Preserving Brice's value at the keystone is a marginal consideration with this deal, but it's still a consideration from where I sit. Chalk it up as a fringe benefit.
  17. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Big game tonight in State College. Get past this one, and you've got three nice home games before a brutal seven-game stretch that includes tough roadies @Indiana, OSU, and Illinois, home chances against MSU and Iowa, and the west coast trip to Oregon and Washington. I suspect there will be multiple losses in there, so it'd be nice to bank another Q2 win tonight.
  18. Cool Hand Lucroy
    The advantage of being small market is that you can leverage big teams who have to win the press conference. Our FO decided long ago that the press conference does not matter. That gets you a trade like this, which is massive controllable upside for one-year of top-tier SP (Freddy may not be ELITE, but he's really, really good and durable) and a Myers, who is....a guy. A guy I like. But not someone you can't find or re-create. Doesn't mean this will work out, but the team is making a play to be at the top of the Central and in playoff contention for multiple years. It's re-opening the window. You can like that philosophy or not in terms of its playoff impact, but the team has thought about it, committed to it, and made moves consistent with it for a while now. Way better return than I thought.
  19. Cool Hand Lucroy
    What a finish. That was a sloppy victory, but a cathartic one. You're absolutely right on that you take anything you can get against that squad in that gym. It's not a great performance. I think the defense could have been better, especially late in the game. Some bad fouls, and if it weren't for Minnesota missing some free throws, that would've wound up an L. Still, you've got to credit getting almost nothing from the frontcourt and still pulling it out. Blackwell was awesome. Carrington too. The offense kind of rode about 8 great minutes to a W, but that's sometimes all it takes. If MN plays like this, that's going to end up a Q1 game by the end of the year. Really impressed by their effort and toughness.
  20. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Yeah, this is for sure going to be a three-game stretch that tests the focus. You've got the road games against decent teams, playing hard and together, wrapped around the no-win home game against Rutgers. In theory, we should be favorites in all three. Like you said, though, Pikiell is a good coach. Rhodes at PSU too, and Medved may have been the home run hire of the coaching carousel, given where Minnesota was and where they probably should be given their location. Team deserved to celebrate the Michigan win. But breaking serve against Sinner or Alcaraz doesn't mean too much if you can't consolidate the break and hold serve. It's hold serve time for Wisconsin. We've got more talent than Minnesota 1-5. I think it's all about controlling pace. They are going to be hard pressed to keep up offensively in a game that runs 70+ possessions. We want this thing played in the 70s or 80s for sure.
  21. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Rewatching the Michigan game a bit this weekend and thinking it's exactly what happens when you have two stretch bigs knocking down shots: it frees up Blackwell and Boyd. Those two are ELITE college guards, and elite college guards means you are capable of beating anybody. Let's roll up a few wins here and start building a serious profile.
  22. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Was going to say this about Gard too. The possession with about 4:25 left, where Boyd had four fouls, but Gard goes offense-defense with him after we get fouled was a great little moment that shows he was on top of his game today. I also thought the defensive game plan was really, really good. Michigan made some shots and got points at the line. There were one or two breakdown possessions you'd like back (I think we hit a three to go up seven with about 13 min left only to have Michigan answer back within like 4 seconds), but, other than that, that's a game where, sure, you give up 88. But it's a lot of hard-earned buckets. Still soaring on this one. We've got to back it up @Minnesota already on Tuesday, but this is a stretch of games where you could look up and be 8-3 in the B1G. Really hope they make this W payoff. It really is a MASSIVE win. Hard to believe anyone in the country will post one clearly better.
  23. Cool Hand Lucroy
    I thought I saw the double-tap too, but I think that 's fine under the rules. Issue was ball was still on the rim. As the (excellent) crew mentioned on the broadcast, that's a clear basket under FIBA rules. Just not NCAA ones.
  24. Cool Hand Lucroy
    WOW. That is a fist-pump, emotional catharsis kind of win. EARNED EVERY BIT. And did a lot of good work with Boyd on the bench in foul trouble. Obviously, getting all those points from Bieliauskas was huge. Credit to Carrington for a great game, despite two big FT misses down the stretch. And Kinzinger put in some HUGE possessions and did good work on the defensive end. That's the win that separates you from a very messy bubble. A true road win @ the consensus best team in the country (or at least the consensus co-best team) is going to vault your standing. These guys are going to have to back it up, but let's hope they found something today. It's the kind of performance you were just waiting for, knowing the talent and understanding that these pieces SHOULD fit together. A team win. One of the best ones this program has had in a long time. Going to enjoy the heck out of it!
  25. Cool Hand Lucroy
    I don't think they can overturn this call. If they do, it'll take a friendly Wolverine whistle and make it genuine home-cooking. Call stands. Interesting situation here. I would probably foul if I'm Michigan. Gotta make a front end.
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