KeithStone53151

How is the inside of the plate at any point more of a clear path than the outside of the plate? Lucroy moves from between blocking the inside half of the plate and 2 feet off the plate to the inside. The inside part of the plate was never the best path for him unless he was going to try and slide between his legs or something. You all are grasping at straws at best...

What he describes looks like exactly what happened. Marisnick made the split second decision to go inside before he started the step when he put his right foot far out to the right. Right before that happened Lucroy moved from the right field side of the field away from right field. Making it look like he was preparing to move back and field a slight overthrow or long hop. When Marisnick started moving his right leg out to push off from and go inside Lucoy was blocking the plate, leaving no obvious sliding lane. This is where Lucroy was when Marisnick's right foot about to move outside so he could push off on it and move inside: At this point is when Marisnick decided to go inside, not sot sure how he could have magically know Lucroy would also be there for him to crush. Notice in the picture Marisnick's right foot is already extended and he already decided to go inside, well before Lucroy was there. Watch the first video here in super slo-mo speed (right click choose 1/4 speed) starting at 2:45. You can see Lucroys body swaying towards the outside, then Marisnick puts his right foot out to move inside, then Lucroys moves inside to field it. https://deadspin.com/jake-marisnick-should-probably-be-suspended-for-this-1836180059 People have this odd notion that the "Posey" rule will magically prevent all injuries and now anytime there is an injury on these plays it must be because the rule was violated. It was not, these things happen, and if the rule didnt exist Lucroy would have been expecting a pounding and would not have been This is just blatantly wrong. At no point was Lucroy ever blocking the plate, no camera angle shows this. There was always a very clear lane on the outer half of the plate. Also as another poster noted, had Lucroy magically disappeared...Marisnick would have missed the plate inside by 3 feet. This wasn't a "well injuries happen" situation. If Lucroy was indeed in the baseline and this contact happened, well I'd say it is what it is. The fact that it happened so far off the plate with Lucroy doing exactly what he should be doing and exactly what the baserunner should expect him to be doing...inexcusable.

I actually like this a lot. I think they have Bichette penciled in at SS of the future, but I could see them liking Peralta as the feature piece. Obviously we'd need probably 1 more good prospect included in the deal and probably some lesser prospects. Peralta + Ray + some smaller stuff. I wonder if that's enough. Might need more as other teams may bid on the same package.

How is 2 months of a 4.7 ERA starter worth those prospects? I know you have your ways of coming up with these calcs, that just seems like a crazy price to me. I'll also at baseball reference has him at 1 WAR this season so far, not sure how you project he'll post 1.7 WAR in less starts unless you're assuming he'll be way better in the 2nd half.

Are you being serious with the < 1%? And not even worthy of discussion? I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher? I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what? There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak. Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters. When is the last time a unanimous top 5 reliever in baseball was traded with more than 3 years of team control left on their rookie deal? Hence where the <1% comes in...

This is going to be a bit of a weird deadline. There are maybe 7 or 8 obvious sellers in the AL and maybe 1 obvious NL seller? I don't think even the Giants are 100% sell yet. They are probably prepared to sell but might wait a week to see how they look out of the break. Almost every team in the NL could look to contend and therefore could look to add. Might drive up prices.

I think this is somewhat key, I don't think anyone thinks he was trying to injure Lucroy. This isn't like a Suh stomping on our lineman's nuts situation. But, he was clearly trying to truck him. It's a dirty play even without intent to injure.

Marisnick for sure walked off the field and immediately into the managers office, which also had a PR person that coached him on a response. That PR person probably started coming up with the best possible spin as soon as the play happened. This is so clear-cut, I can't believe how much back and forth there has been on whether this was a dirty play. Marisnick looked more like Ronnie Lott than a baseball player yesterday.

I don't hate the idea of adding 2 relievers and trying to piecemeal the pitching for 1.5 months until we can call up extra arms in September. I think adding someone like Bumgarner helps so much though, guy goes 6-7 innings every start. Would be nice to have at least one rock in the rotation.

In these types of situations, I always feel like an eye for an eye is best. Not that someone should concuss Marisnack, but he should be out until Lucroy returns. That won't happen though, Marisnack will get probably 5-6 game suspension and Lucroy will miss a few weeks or more. And he's also that much closer to not being able to catch anymore as concussions tend to rack up at the position.

I think any changes we make are to pitching, especially if Aguilar looks good out of the break. I've been advocating for trading for Justin Smoak for weeks, but if both Thames and Aguilar are hitting...that would be pointless. Outside chance we look at a SS/utility type to take over SS, but I think we rotate until we find an in-house option that works. I also think the rest helps Cain/Braun bounce back a bit...especially Cain. As for pitching, I'd like to see 1 starter and 2 relievers. I like the idea of someone established that will eat innings and keep us in games. That's part of why I like Bumgarner, also the whole postseason monster thing. I obviously love the idea of Will Smith so we have a 3rd lefty, especially with claudio struggling...but that might not be realistic. I definitely think we should add a LH reliever specifically though...2 RH relievers would be overkill as we have a couple good from the right side.

My guess is a lot of teams will have similar offers and Bumgarner will pick the team he wants to play on from about 3-4 teams. That or whoever makes the best offer has to send him some sort of financial kicker. I hope communication is generally good so the Giants don't end up with a Lucroy veto situation.

I'd put it at about 0.1% this year and maybe 1-2% next year. I'd put the odds of the Brewers winning the world series one of the next two years higher than a Josh Hader trade.

Are you kidding? The contact was a good 2 feet inside the base line and he lowered his shoulder. Marisnak looked like a safety hitting a WR over the middle back in 2002. He should get a severe suspension. Watch his feet. He was going to slide one way then decided to change direction and then changed direction again while attempting to slide head first. The throw took Lucroy into the path he eventually decided to go. He "lowered his shoulder" because he was sliding head first. And if you watch his upper half, you'll see he tried to avoid a collision right before they collide so his top and bottom are going in different directions. Was it stupid and a really bad attempt, absolutely. But there was no intent to truck him, just weird baseball stuff. The path he took was one where he wouldn't even be able to reach the plate. He was so far inside he had to come back and touch home plate after he knocked out Lucroy. And in what universe shoudl a runner be sliding to the inside of the plate? Catchers are now trained to set up in front of the plate for a sweep tag. 99% of the time, the runner should be sliding on the outside of the plate. I've watched this over and over, it doesn't at all look like he tried to avoid collision or let up at all. He juked inside at the last second to truck Lucroy. Dirty dirty dirty.

I think you missed the whole point of my post. We scored 118 runs while the Padres for example were 3rd in the NL with 153 runs. Meanwhile we had a higher BB rate, lower k rate, 7% lower soft contact rate, and 10% higher hard contact rate. In what universe should the team on the wrong side of all those advanced metrics score 37 less runs? Well they had a .318 BABIP while we had .286 BABIP. They had a lot of bloop junk fall in while we had more line drives not fall in. Eventually that stuff evens out, and their soft contact turns into easy outs while our hard contact goes over the fence and plugs gaps. The entire point of my post above was pointing out that this team got really unlucky in June and the sky is not falling.

Ya, not quite. Lucroy moved to get the ball, the runner couldn't decide which way to go and they collided. Absolutely no way he should be suspended. Are you kidding? The contact was a good 2 feet inside the base line and he lowered his shoulder. Marisnak looked like a safety hitting a WR over the middle back in 2002. He should get a severe suspension.

Brewers were tied for 12th in the NL in runs scored in June with 118. We did have 4 days off, maybe if we have an extra game we get to 123 which would put us alone in 12th in the NL. The bulk of NL teams were between 128 and 145 scored. The Brewers have the highest hard contact rate in the NL, middle of the pack k rate, highest BB rate, and 10th in the NL in BABIP. Brewers were 10th in the NL in ERA in June with 4.86, 8th best was 4.20...so we were a bit of an outlier on the high end. That said, the Brewers were 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. We also had the highest BABIP despite having the highest soft contact rate. We also were 12th in the NL in LOB%. All that is enough to tell me our pitching was wildly unlucky in June. I know everyone says the sky is falling because of our pitching, but a lot of soft hits finding holes in key spots. Their record was 13-13 in June. Based simply on runs allowed and runs scored, we got a bit lucky on overall record. But i think we got severely unlucky in both runs scored and runs allowed based on the advanced metrics I look at. I think this is a better team than we're given credit for right now on both sides of the ball.

This won't happen, but for pure speculation purposes...I think something like Verdugo + Lux + Smith could be interesting, also add in them taking Braun and his contract. No way the Dodgers would be willing to give that up, but I think it has to be something like that to give up Hader. All those guys are either MLB ready or in the upper minors and very close to MLB ready.

I think it's very smart to pull Anderson here. Treat this game like a playoff game. Everyone gets all the rest they need after today, do whatever it takes to keep runs off the board.

Not just the HR, the last 2 weeks or so he's looked better at the plate. Not constantly fidgeting with where to stand in the box and missing hittable pitches. Would be huge to be able to plug either him or Thames in the heart of the order on a daily basis. If some rest helps rejuvenate Cain and we can get back to Cain-Yelich-Moose-Aguilar-Grandal-Hiura-Braun-Dubon-P lineup...I think that lineup scores a lot of runs if they are right.

What part of anything Dubon has done over his minor league career led you to that conclusion? This is a shockingly bad take.

I could go either way on this one. I currently project Brewers payroll at 108 million if they pretty much keep everyone and don't keep Grandal/Moose. Nelson, Anderson, Aguilar, Thames, and Shaw...are some primary options of guys that have some chance to get cut to save $.

Saying we need more hitting feels lazy to me. You should be looking more at a position than simply saying "offense is bad, get better offense". With pitching, it's either starting or relieving...and there are plenty of candidates for both starters and relievers that could be shifted to another role or sent to AAA. For hitting, you should have specific positions in mind you think we can improve. My deadline opinion, 2 relievers and Justin Smoak. If there's a SS option to replace Saladino that is a clear upgrade, I'm open to it pending cost. Those are what we should be looking at in my opinion.

I always find their pitching projections so funny. It's like they start at 4.5 for everyone that doesn't have multiple years of consistent, established results...and mildly adjust from there.

This is about where I'm at. We should for sure be trying to win this year and next year, 2021 will be a decision year where we consider trading some of our elite players if we fall out of contention. And I said consider, doesn't mean we should necessarily do it. But that would be roughly a time we could max out value on Yelich and Hader.