BruisedCrew

Diving into first might not be the smartest thing, but if you’re going to do it, a swim move that delays your first contact with the base is really dumb.

Winker and Contreras look like they will fit right in with the Brewers offense.

No hitting, crappy pitching, and boneheaded defense. The umpires are the least of the Brewers problems today.

I don’t expect it to be a big difference in the W-L record, but relative to the rest of the NL teams that they’ll be competing with for playoff spots, the Brewers are losing games against a worse group of teams than the teams in the NL West and (especially) East. The schedules will be more equitable now.

I'm going to skip the individual categories and just make my comments on the overall record. I am relatively bearish on the Brewers because it's hard for me to see how, at least on paper, the team is better than the team that played .500 ball for the last 5 months of the 2022 season. Compared to other teams that are considered playoff contenders they seem to have more question marks. I also think the schedule will be tougher this year as the new schedule doesn't offer as many games as the Brewers had last year against the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs (who still won the season series and should be improved this year). To be a contender a lot of things have to go right, including injury free seasons from the top pitchers. With Ashby and Houser starting the season on the IL, that hope is already off to a bad start. I also think the bullpen is not going to be the asset that it has been when the Brewers were most successful. The duo of Williams and Hader was a huge asset, and that no longer exists. Williams might be fine in the closer role, but there are a lot of question marks in the setup role. Like last year, I expect the Brewers to be middle of the pack in MLB in offense, and I don't think the pitching will be dominant enough to carry that offense to the playoffs. So, my bottom line prediction is 82-80 and fighting with the Cubs for second place in the division. No playoffs.

I don’t doubt that, and didn’t think the decision was a no brainer. But, all things considered, I would have gone for it because a successful play would have put the game away.

I would have gone for it and tried to clinch the win. If you don’t make it make them go 60 plus yards with no timeouts just to get to OT. Now they’ll be starting with better field position and have a better shot at the winning TD.

As long as he doesn’t think Wisconsin’s standards are the same as O$U’s.

While it’s reasonable to discuss whether Hader should have been brought in to face Harper, it was hardly a no brainer. The Padres were pretty clearly hoping for Suarez and Hader to finish out the game. Bringing Hader in to face Harper would have meant hoping for Hader to get 6 outs without good backup if he got into trouble. Maybe they were spooked by Hader’s history of surrendering deciding runs in the 8th inning of elimination games, including a home run to an all star left handed hitter in 2021.

He obviously didn’t have much confidence but, in his defense, under the wet conditions, a bunt might not have been the worst move. A little slip going after the ball, or a wild throw triggered by a wet ball (pitchers are infamous for wild throws to bases) could have made the bunt look brilliant. Failing to drag the bunt away from the pitcher made the defensive play and throw much easier.

It sure can help to have superstar players in big games.

You seem to be ignoring that that Michigan team was horrible and COVID riddled. That whole season should be written off as a meaningless exhibition. Pointing to any game that season as a high point is pretty damning.

That’s a brutal loss. Could be the difference between a 6-11 or a 7-10 record. I have been on a trip the last two weeks and hadn’t seen a game since the NE game, which by itself was pretty uninspiring. Just seeing the summaries of the last two games didn’t prepare me for how inept the team has become. I shudder to think what it will be like against a good team with a legitimate NFL QB. I guess something like the Viking game.

I think it’s time to R E L A X about the Packers. They have struggled against mediocre teams with backup QBs and it’s really hard to see how the offense is going to improve with a patchwork offensive line, a collection of has been or never was receivers, and Rodgers looking like he’s checking out. They look like a team that’s headed for maybe 6-8 wins and nowhere near the playoffs.

This game has all the excitement of a 4 hour 2-1 baseball game.

I get it. You disagree with my opinion. That’s fine.

My broader point is that the regular season is not necessarily reflective of the playoffs. During the regular season teams have injuries and make roster changes through trades, acquisitions, and incorporation of upcoming players. Also, teams that have problems in the regular season because of lack of pitching depth can be more successful in the playoffs when they can get by with fewer starting pitchers and a tighter bullpen. A team with a less impressive regular season record (like the 2019 Nats or 2021 Braves) might be much more equipped for a playoff run than it might appear from its regular season numbers. Or a team like the 1987 Twins that had a huge home/road disparity might be able to succeed by winning games at home while losing all of its road games in the World Series. The randomness of baseball can be a factor too, Bottom line is that it is my opinion that the 2022 Brewers were not well equipped to succeed in the playoffs because their everyday lineup would have a lot of trouble scoring against the top line pitching they would be facing. They wouldn’t be looking at the pitching staffs from the likes of the Reds and Pirates against which they padded their regular season numbers. Coming into the season the Brewers hopes in the playoffs were pinned largely on near perfect pitching from their top line starting pitchers and a bullpen anchored by Williams and Hader. But Peralta’s injury and Hader’s slump and subsequent trade removed a significant part of that strength. Of course it is possible that the Brewers could have caught lightning in a bottle and suddenly started producing runs if they had slipped into the playoffs. But their performance through most of the last 5 months of the season, and especially in September with the playoff berth on the line, tells me that that was the longest of long shots. Just my opinion.

I’m not trying to argue that the Phillies of the regular season were head and shoulders better than the Brewers. But, I do think that they were better, and were significantly better positioned for the playoffs than the Brewers would have been. A few points: 1. Yes, the Phillies played 38 games against the Nats and Marlins, but that they also had to play 38 games against the Braves and Mets, I don’t think there’s any question that that is much more difficult than playing 57 games against the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs, and 19 against the Cardinals (clearly the weakest division winner in the NL). 2. The Phillies everyday lineup entering the playoffs was much stronger offensively than anything the Brewers could have put together. Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, and Hoskins are significantly more formidable than the Brewers top 4 hitters, and the Phillies have used that offense to advance in the playoffs, especially as they pounded on the Braves. I seriously doubt that the Brewers could have done that. 3. The Phillies playoff lineup is stronger than the one they put out through much of the season when you factor in that Harper and Segura each missed over a third of the season with injuries, and that adding Marsh at the trade deadline gave them a boost in CF, both offensively and defensively. The Phillies did an admirable job getting themselves into strong position while Harper was out, then almost buckled under the pressure of expectations down the stretch. They invited the Brewers to take the last playoff spot, but the Brewers couldn’t win games they needed to win, including against the likes of the DBacks, Rockies, and Marlins. They missed Wheeler when he had to miss a few starts in September. Maybe the Brewers could have done in the playoffs what the Phillies are doing. But my guess is that they wouldn’t have.

The one argument might be based on the fact that the Phillies played in a much stronger division and, therefore, had to negotiate a tougher schedule. The teams might be somewhat close, but maybe not quite as close as suggested just by the numbers. For one thing, the Brewers don’t have the big impact hitters like Harper and Schwarber or one of the best offensive catchers in MLB. The Phillies also improved themselves at the trade deadline, something the Brewers clearly did not do.

Phillies demonstrating the value of putting the ball in play.

86 wins and no playoffs it is.

Seems to me that OBP with RISP is a pretty useless statistic. With RISP you’re looking for something to drive in a run or two. If a batter comes up with runners on second and third, a walk (possibly intentional or the result of pitching around a hitter) doesn’t help get a run in. So, the bottom line is that the Brewers were poor at getting runners on base and poor at getting those runners in. That’s a pretty deadly combination, both in terms of scoring runs and winning games, and in terms of being fun to watch. No wonder such a high percentage of their runs came on HR.

I expect 2023 for the Brewers to start somewhere between a complete tear down and trying to get by with no significant attempts to improve the offense. I don’t pay close enough attention to the minor leaguers to know how many, if any, of them will actually turn into above average major leaguers. I’ve seen too many examples like David Green, Randy Ready, Matt LaPorta, Lewis Brinson, and Keston Hiura to expect too much until I’ve seen them have some success in MLB. If some of these prospects can be productive as early as next year, great. But, IMHO, even Mitchell is on the “show me more” list. But, if some of these prospects are as good as some on this board seem to think, maybe the Brewers have an opportunity to use some of them to help the parent club and others to attract an established major league hitter. I thought at the end of last season that the Brewers might trade Lauer, Houser, or Ashby to a team desperate for starting pitching in a deal that would include a good hitting first or third baseman in return. The lockout made accomplishing that much more difficult. There may be an opportunity to do something similar this year (with Lauer being the most likely candidate) by packaging a SP with one of the outfield prospects. If the pitcher dealt is Burnes or Woodruff, the return better include at least one established hitter or the Brewers will be telling the fans not to expect and playoff appearances for a couple of years. The Brewers plan for this year was to have elite pitching and just enough offense to get by with it. When injuries and performance declines torpedoed the elite pitching, the offense couldn’t fill the gap. They may have come close to making the playoffs anyway, but the record was inflated by the weak division and the gap between the Brewers and teams like the Braves, Dodgers, and Mets is huge. My guess is that they will hang on to Burnes and Woodruff and hope that the pitching can be somewhere between the 2021 and 2022 levels. If things go sideways in the first half of the season, they can use the ace pitchers to attract offers in Midseason deals.

I wanted them in the postseason too, but when they play below .500 for the last 5 months of the season it’s easy to accept that they didn’t deserve it. Sure, they blew a number of games they could have/should have won, but so did the Padres and Phillies.

It shouldn’t. The Phillies should be tanking these last two games to make sure they stay behind the Padres. I’d rather be in the bracket with the Cardinals and Braves than the Mets and Dodgers. It might be different if they were trying to win. It makes me sad that the Brewers were sad for most of the season, not that they just missed getting into playoffs that they would have been out of quickly anyway.