Based on just the current standings, the Reds are close to the worst team in the NL. Their record of 23-40 puts them even with the Cubs, just ahead of the Nats, and slightly behind the Pirates and Rockies.
But, since their ridiculously awful 3-22 start (which ended on May 5 with the sweep by the Brewers at AFF in which the Brewers scored approximately 100 runs) the Reds have been a better team than the Brewers.
Since that date, the Reds are 22-18 with a run differential of +31 while the Brewers have gone 17-22 with a run differential of -33. The Reds offense, which now includes Joey Votto, has enabled the team to overcome bad pitching, as they showed in taking two of three from the Brewers in mid May, while the Brewers were at pretty much full strength.
The Brewers have only managed to go 3-4 in recent series against the Cubs and Nats, two teams that have both gone 14-25 since May 5.
Based on recent performances by the offenses and the starting pitchers in this series, the Reds hold the upper hand. Getting 2 out of 3 in this series is going to be difficult, but would be a step in the right direction for a struggling team.