Before I can get too excited about advanced metrics and projections I need to see if the Brewers can actually escape the funk that produced losing 10 of 12 games. One win over the Nationals, as welcome as it was, doesn’t do that.
In the short term the Brewers next two weeks include 6 games against the Mets and Blue Jays, two very good teams, 4 against the Cardinals, and 3 against the Reds, who aren’t the pushovers that they seemed to be when they started 3-22. Without some improvements in all areas things could get ugly really fast. On the other hand, winning 6 or 7 of these games (including at least 2 against the Cardinals) would be a vast improvement over the previous two weeks.
Tim Muma’s latest article about Burnes, Lauer, and Houser pinpoints something that has to change, and quickly, if the Brewers are going to avoid sinking further.
The daily snapshot of the Brewers position relative to last season may look similar. But the forward looking picture without Peralta and Woodruff is a lot more cloudy. And I wouldn’t count on the Cardinals folding up and going away like the Cubs did last year.