I know a lot of people don’t like it when I do this, but I continue to think that the facts support the premise that the Brewers run prevention is playing a much bigger role in their success than the offense.
I pointed out at the end of May that the Brewers offense that month produced only 4.15 RPG, which was 10th in the NL and well below the league average of 4.54 RPG. But the RAPG was a sensational 2.77, a clear first in the NL and more than a run and a half better than the league average of 4.34.
The first 3 series in June (Giants, Rockies, A’s) produced explosions of runs by both the Brewers and their opponents that skew the season long numbers. But the Brewers went 6-4 so that goofy stretch didn’t affect the pattern of wins and losses.
Since returning from Vegas, the May pattern has returned. The Brewers have gone 15-8, 4th best in the NL, while scoring 4.39 RPG (9th best in the NL and well below the league average of 4.96). But, like in May, their RAPG of 3.30 is best in the NL and a run and a half below the league average of 4.80 and 0.7 better than the second best Marlins.
It appears that as the weather has heated up scoring has increased but the Brewers haven’t kept up. I have heard some rumors or speculation that the baseballs have been tightened up and are now flying farther. Maybe that explains why the Brewers have been hitting more home runs even though their overall scoring hasn’t increased as much as the rest of the league.