BruisedCrew

That sequence would be a good example to make the case for Yelich batting lead off. Scratch his way on base then let him run.

Have to remember the Harper DP when someone gets a cheap hit to knock in a run.

I guess the plan is to hope he hits a smash right at someone.

I wonder what the plan is for pitching to white hot Harper with 2 on and none out.

I hope this isn’t too negative, but I’m surprised they’re going with Alexander and sticking with the 6 day rotation instead of using Houser tonight. Despite his solid outing last week, I’m apprehensive about how Alexander will do against a team coming off a hot hitting weekend. Unless they think Woodruff will be able to start on Sunday, this corners them into using Alexander (or another fill in) before the Monday off day.

Tweaking a hamstring when that wasn’t his original injury sounds a little troubling to me. In addition to his ankle sprain he’s now had quad discomfort and a tweaked hamstring in the last two weeks. You’re going to have to hold your breath every time he runs hard.

I agree with this. Having a league average hitter for the 3B position is not one of the offense’s biggest problems. Being near worst in the league at LF, CF, and DH is something else again.

I didn’t think or say that Urias first injured the thumb on Friday. But I didn’t think it happened in early May either. If it did happen that long ago, and is still bothering him now, it is probably going to be a chronic problem for some time. A .740 OPS is the current NL average for the third base position. What Turner is currently hitting is irrelevant because the Dodgers have enough stars at other positions to absorb a below average performance at one position and still have the highest scoring team in the league.

Prospect credentials aren’t of much interest to me. I’ve seen too many examples of guys who come with the label “he’s hit everywhere he’s played” who end up not hitting in MLB. For every Ryan Braun who comes to the Brewers there have been many Randy Readys, Joey Meyers, Matt LaPortas, and Louis Brinsons. Hiura might be headed for that category too. On the thumb injury, how long has he had it? They just mentioned it when he left the game Friday and made it sound like it was something that happened when he got jammed on a pitch shortly before that. They also said it didn’t affect his hitting. His current run of OPS around .650 goes back to the Miami series over 3 weeks ago. His season OPS is propped up largely by the 6 games against the Reds. If his thumb has been bothering him that long, 3 or 4 days of rest isn’t likely to cure it.

My mistake. I know the Nats have said that they wouldn't trade Soto but I thought he had turned down a long term contract offer from them. So, scratching that as an example, the point still remains that moves made in July (by either team) could significantly change the outlook for the division race

I could go through something like this for several Brewers, but Urias might be a perfect example of the questions I have about the Brewers offense. Urias in only his second year as a regular doesn't have the kind of track record that a veteran has, and that makes it harder to know what to expect from him. I know that I never expected him to hit 23 HR like he did last year en route to an OPS of .789. Was that a breakout year or would he be susceptible to a "sophomore slump" as teams get more of a book on him? His current OPS of .740 is in line with what he did last year, though it is a little on the light side for 3B. But, when you look more closely at his performance this year you see that when he first started playing in early May, his first 3 games were in the Reds series in which the Brewers scored 34 runs. Urias left that series with an OPS of 1.393, obviously not very significant for 3 games. In the 25 games he's played since then, his OPS is .670. So, what do we expect from him the rest of the season? Your guess is as good as mine, but if his OPS for the rest of the year is around .700, that's not very good for 3B, especially compared to other contenders who have players like Machado, Arenado, and Riley stationed there.

This is probably a good jumping off point because that is my main point. I think the Cardinals are better than experts and preseason projections expected and that the division race is likely to be close unless there are significant developments in the future like major, long term injuries or significant acquisitions before the trading deadline. If the Cardinals pick up Juan Soto as a rental that would change the picture.

Last season is last season. I look at the projection models for entertainment, but I don't treat them as true probabilities as many others do. If they were that accurate this early in the season the Mets and Padres would have been fighting it out in the playoffs last year and the Braves would have been sitting home.

I guess you'd have to define "elite". You're picking out a couple of statistics where the Brewers rate high. I focus more on runs allowed than how many strikeouts the pitchers get. To the extent that runs allowed is affected by fielding, so be it. I don't think there's much question that the Cardinals fielding is better than the Brewers, and that helps their pitching. But, at this point in the season the Brewers and Cardinals are virtually even in runs allowed per game. Whether they're preventing runs with pitching or fielding is immaterial to me. On a couple of your other points: 1. I am not "assuming" that O'Neill and Flaherty are going to return and play at an All Star level. You're adding that word. But, they are players who could provide positive contributions. 2. I also am not "assuming" that the Cardinal rookies will continue to outpace the best Brewers hitters. If you want to disagree with me, please react to what I actually said, not your twisting of it. I referred to how the Brewers hitters have performed individually the last month. If you haven't done that, maybe you should. It would illustrate why the Brewers offensive problems have come from more than injuries. 3. I am not "assuming" that Woodruff will be as mediocre the rest of the season as he has been so far. But it wouldn't be the first time that a pitcher with high expectations had an off season. I remember guys like Nola and Giolito last year. 4. On Peralta, I heard what Counsell said. When I hear that a pitcher will be out for a "significant amount of time" with no timeline for when he will be back, and that "we expect him back this year", my experience with this kind of "manager speak" is that the player may or may not be back this season but they aren't going to rule it out yet. So, while I'm not "assuming" that Peralta will not pitch again this season, I'm not going to be surprised if he doesn't. In its most optimistic presentation, Peralta will at some point begin soft tossing, then throwing a little farther, then throwing a few pitches off a mound, then pitching to hitters, then going on rehab for a few starts, and then maybe returning to the big club. If there are no setbacks at all that process will take a few months when it starts, and we haven't heard anything about it. What the Brewers said about Peralta is very similar to what the Mets said about deGrom last June. Keep in mind that this is the same organization that wasn't sure Adames would need to go on the IL when he first got hurt and now he's been out for 3 weeks. I'm sure they will be very cautious with Peralta.

You mention the Brewers “elite” pitching, but has it really been that elite? You should scratch Peralta off that list because you can’t count on him returning this season, much less returning at an elite level. Woodruff has not been elite so far either, so who knows what he will do once he comes back from his injury. I really think you’re applying a much more critical standard to the Cardinals than you are to the Brewers. When I look at how the Brewers hitters have performed since the hitting surge that ended with the 3 game sweep over the Reds in early May, it raises some real questions about what to expect from that offense going forward. Of course they will be better than they were with the lineup they had to field last weekend. But will it be good enough to get to 90-95 wins even with high quality pitching? To me that’s the big question.

I’m not assuming that those Cardinals are going to continue at an .870 OPS pace, but when I look at how even some of the best Brewers have been hitting for the last month, they still look pretty good. I suspect that people who are looking for Turang and Dahl to provide a spark to the Brewers offense that was sputtering even before the run of injuries would be pretty excited to add some of these guys to the Brewers lineup.

I was going to raise something about the Cardinals today. The Brewers issues have been fully discussed, and it remains to be seen how much of the problem with the Brewers offense is the injuries and how much is just not having enough good hitters and too many black holes in the lineup. I might put something about that in the offense thread. I think the Cardinals are clearly going to be better than the preseason projections. They have had their own issues with injuries and lack of performance, and still have scored more runs per game and allowed fewer runs per game than the Brewers while compiling a virtually identical record. They have something important the Brewers don't have in proven star caliber hitters (Goldschmidt and Arenado). Edman is also a strong producer who can set the table for the big hitters. They didn't waste time reaching down to the minors to plug in Yepez, Donovan, and Gorman. If those guys keep producing like they have so far that offense is going to be tough to handle. Their starting pitching may not be as strong as the Brewers, but they do OK with what they have along with some strong arms in the bullpen who can handle multiple innings. Their defense also helps their pitchers more than the Brewers defense does Flaherty is starting a minor league rehab and if he can come back at something close to his usual form that will be a big boost to their rotation. They also can look forward to O'Neill coming back from injury and producing at something like last year's pace. IMHO, even if the Brewers can get straightened out and challenge 90 wins I'm not seeing the kind of runaway division race they had last season.

I would disagree that past playoff failures make future success more likely because that team becomes due to get hot. Yes, an “inferior” team can get hot and win the World Series, but I would rather take my chances with a stronger team that only has to win 3 playoff series instead of 4 to win the championship. I suppose the Twins are due to win a playoff game one of these years given all of their chances.

Unlike the Padres, who came into this series after getting swept by the Cardinals, and their offense in a slump, the Phillies have had a Bambis Bombers style response to the Gerardi firing. They scored 26 runs in 3 games while piling on the reeling Angels. And they did it after losing Segura for a couple of months with a broken finger. With Alexander and Houser slated for Tuesday and Wednesday against a hot hitting team I, wouldn’t bet the ranch on a quick turnaround, even if Adames and Renfroe are back. Harper alone can carry a team in a way no Brewers hitter can.

That takes care of that.

It took 3 hours and 20 minutes to slog through 9 innings. Why make it any longer than necessary.

Heart of the Padres order with a man on second and nobody out. Not a promising situation

Ump was fooled on that 1-1 pitch.

They just said Hill has to face two more hitters. I thought the 3 hitter rule didn’t apply if the pitcher finishes an inning. ETA: I guess he could have been removed after the 8th, but if he comes back he has to face two hitters in that inning to make it a total of 3.

Once you get there there cannot be a save situation in the game. In this case he hasn’t pitched since Monday and there is an off day tomorrow. If he is ever going to get a second inning, today would be the day.