BruisedCrew

At least the Cubs rally forced the Cardinals to use Gallegos.

After a walk to the pitcher. As hot as they are if you make any mistakes against these guys they make you pay.

According to the 538 projections you have an 85.4% chance of being right. They also say that the probability of the Brewers clinching the division tonight is 11.6%.

You know, I've largely stayed out of your continual comments like this, including your 'I was berated for saying....' comment in the IGT last night, but come on, man. In the end, you weren't comfortable with the projections 6 weeks ago, which, as it was then indicated, was your right to believe. You still weren't comfortable even as the Reds faded and the Brewers became actual 'locks' for the division, and now you're trying to do some sort of victory lap, even though they're STILL virtual locks for the division. You can believe what you want on a personal level, but you continually refuse to simply acknowledge that that's all this is. Instead, you continue to challenge statistics and historical facts and have tried to find flaws or twist the data to try and prove that your concern was valid, even though even now it's still nothing beyond a personal feeling. In short, believe what you want, as I've literally said all along. But stop sniping at those that have enjoyed the ride with little stress in worrying about a race that has been virtually over for weeks and simply didn't share your concern. I’m amused that you continue to lecture me that I don’t understand statistics and historical facts about baseball projections in a year when at least two teams, and possibly more, are going to defy projected probabilities of over 95%. Maybe you should explain to me the difference between something being “mathematically over” (which is objective) and something that is “statistically over”, which is how you described the NL Central race in mid August when the Brewers had a 7 game lead over the Reds. Because the projection sites at that time had the Brewers probability of winning the division at about 95%, I concluded that you were saying that anything with a projected probability of 95% or more is “statistically over”. If I misunderstood you, please correct me. But, because there are several examples in just the last few seasons of projected probabilities of 95% not playing out that way, I think that characterization is incorrect. Whether you think my concern that the Brewers have not yet mathematically clinched the division is valid is not important to me. But, maybe you, as a moderator, should take your own advice and stop sniping at those who see and react to things differently than you do.

Unless I misread it, I thought the Brewers originally had Burnes going tonight and Lauer tomorrow. Maybe I just assumed it because that would have kept things in order. I wonder what the reason is for flipping Lauer ahead of Burnes, giving Burnes a full week in between starts. I was hoping that Burnes would be available for Thursday against the Cardinals in case the magic number is still 2 or 3, in which case a win over the Cardinals would be more useful than a win over the Dodgers. If Counsell wants to pitch Burnes on Friday against the Dodgers to set him up for the first game of the NLDS the following Friday, he must be assuming that the division will be wrapped up before Thursday.

Because the doubleheader games are only 7 innings pitching Flaherty in one of them makes sense. He can go 3 innings and then turn it over to a couple of relievers. The doubleheader could stress the Cardinals bullpen, but they should be in decent shape because they had no stress on Wednesday and didn’t have to use all of their top relievers yesterday. If the Cubs are going to win a game against the Cardinals they’re probably going to need to score a lot of runs, something they are capable of doing. I don’t see them winning 2-1.

I’m in total agreement with this, including the parts about how teams meeting in a playoff series fared against each other in the regular season (when rosters and pitching matchups may have been significantly different). So, just get there, take a few deep breaths, and then reassess. But get there. And avoid the wild card game if at all possible.

The linked article addresses the issue of how a team that streaks or stumbles in September performs in the postseason. That isn’t and hasn’t been my concern. I am focused entirely on the Brewers winning the division and avoiding the wild card game. This article mentions the Indians winning 21 in a row in September and a Yankees team losing 15 of their last 18. So, when people say that the Cardinals can’t win their final 22 in a row, or the Brewers can’t lose 15 of their last 19, that is simply not true. Things like that are not completely unprecedented and both are now rearing their heads (and upper bodies). We’re now to the point of the Cardinals needing to win just 10 in a row, which is made even less unlikely than a normal 10 game winning streak based on who and where they are playing. And the Brewers losing 7 of their last 9 isn’t that far fetched given the state of their offense and problems arising in the bullpen, and considering who and where they are playing. If the Brewers can pull it together enough to clinch the division, such as by winning 2 against the Mets while the Cubs stop the Cards winning streak, or the Brewers manage to win one in St. Louis, then I’ll focus on their playoff prospects. I’ll be buying Game 2 NLDS tickets this morning even though we won’t be able to use them if the Brewers get there through the Wild Card game and play Game 4 on a weekday. Sure, the odds still heavily favor the Brewers, but I’m not going to apologize for not celebrating until it is mathematically over, not just “statistically over”, whatever that even means. If and when they do clinch, that celebration will come with a big sigh of relief that wouldn’t have been there if the Brewers had simply won a couple more games this last 10 days instead of allowing their 15 game lead over the Cardinals to be cut in half. Maybe we’ll be fortunate enough to see the division clinching that I originally thought we might see last Sunday. We are going to tomorrow night’s game, and if the Brewers can win with Burnes on the mound tonight, and the Cubs can win one of the three games they will have with the Cardinals before then, that could be the clincher.

This would be the dream. In addition to the run scoring drought, the Brewers now have some pretty serious bullpen issues with Boxberger on fumes and Williams hurt. They could really use 8 strong innings from Burnes tomorrow to set it up for Hader. Not sure who the set up men out of the bullpen would be if needed. For the Cubs tomorrow will be the best chance for them to break the Cards winning streak. They have a split doubleheader and the Cards will have Happ and Flaherty (who will presumably be going only a couple of innings off rehab). Maybe the Cubs can put up some runs. The concern is that the Cardinals red hot offense will hit double figures.

Looking at splits is fine. But, with 9 games left in the season and a couple of wins desperately needed, season long splits might not be the best thing to go on. Yelich hasn’t been hitting anyone for the last few weeks, while Taylor hit 2 HRs today against one of the best RHP in the league. It pains me to turn on Yelich because of what he has done for the team and the community in his time here. I really hope he can find his stroke again, though that probably won’t be this season. It’s no time for sentiment. You have to play the players who you think give you the best chance to score runs and win.

At least for the next couple of days I think Taylor and Garcia have to start over Yelich. It’s hard to argue that that doesn’t give them a better chance to produce some runs.

As difficult as it might be, I really think that for tomorrow night, and then Saturday against 50 year old lefty Rich Hill, Counsell has to bench Yelich and start Taylor in left and Garcia in right. See if Taylor can be hot for a few days. When the team is struggling so much to produce runs, at least play the two guys who have produced the most this week.

I didn’t say body language. I’m basing it on uncharacteristic performance. ok. you don't know anything about their emotional state. they're playing poorly. it happens in 162 games. if you're right or upset or panicking , cool you can feel that way. you can't possibly know how they feel. I could buy a statement like "they look like they're pressing" or Something like that but..... ok I have said that before but if it helps I will officially change my statement to “it looks like they’re pressing”. And I think they need a win in the worst way to take off some of that pressure.

I didn’t say body language. I’m basing it on uncharacteristic performance.

Fixed that for you, quite a few typos on your part. Typos like your use of the phrase “I am a physical and emotional a mess”? I am basing my opinion on how the Brewers are performing, not how they are talking. Physical and mental mistakes, things like swinging for the fences even more than usual, relief pitchers who can’t get the ball over the plate, wild throws, passed balls, etc. carry the signs of a team that is feeling a little tight around the collar.

At this point I think we need to throw the playoff projections out the window because they do not and cannot capture the current state of the Brewers, or the Cardinals for that matter. With 9 games left (10 for the Cardinals) we can easily see that the Brewers need to win 3 games (or only 2 if one is against the Cardinals) to clinch the division regardless of what the Cardinals do. And they can be helped further by any games the Cardinals lose to the Cubs. Here’s a narrow, simple example that illustrates what I mean. The 538 site, in addition to its season projections, releases won/loss percentages for each game every day. For this week’s series, the released percentages were: Monday- Brewers 63% Tuesday- Brewers 63% Wednesday- Brewers 53% Thursday- Cardinals 52%. These forecasts take starting pitchers into account and use the same method used to make the season projections. Coming into the series my goal was for the Brewers to win two to wrap up the division, but I would have settled for one to bring the magic number to one and make it almost certain that the division would be locked up before the Brewers go to St. Louis. Based on these percentages, the probability of a Cardinals sweep was just 3.3%. That’s even lower than the 5% chance that the Brewers would not win the division in mid August when I was berated for not being willing to declare the race over with 50 games still to play. And yet, in this case, the 96.7% probability of the Brewers winning at least one of the four games did not materialize.

They have 8 more wins now than the Cardinals. I don’t believe the Brewers will lose all of their remaining 9 games, to think that is frankly stupid. But for the sake of argument even if they did the Cardinals have to go 8-2 over their final ten games just to tie! Teams simply don’t play .000 baseball for extended periods of time nor so they play .800 baseball for a month. If it happens I guess it goes down in baseball history with the shot heard round the world, as the greatest turn around of all time…. And Counsel gets fired. I understand all of the numbers. Maybe you don’t understand the meaning of the word “literally”. It would be absolutely historic for the Brewers to lose the division after leading the Cardinals by 15 games with 22 to go. They have already blown half of it, and now their poor play suggests that they are pressing. They need a win in the worst way to relieve some of that pressure and get back to playing winning baseball. Time is running short. ETA: Due to the reactions to my original comment, I have revised this post to make it clear that I have no inside information about the Brewers emotional state and that my opinions are based solely on their recent play compared to how they played the last few months.

If this continues, they're going to turn into meaningful games. Nope. They literally need to lose every game they have left. Not to mention the team behind them have to win virtually every game they have left. Hell, I would limit the innings of the big dogs and late inning guys and let Gustave, Norris, etc pitch a lot these last 9 games You’re free to believe the Brewers have the division locked up, but it is not literally true that the Brewers would have to lose every game.

Mayday.

If we lose today, it really is not hard to come up with a scenario that the Cardinals enter the last series against us with control over their own destiny for the division. It’s impossible because the Brewers could still sweep the Dodgers to get the 3 wins they need. But it isn’t hard at all to come up with a scenario in which they can win if the Brewers can’t win a couple over the weekend. This game is very pivotal right now.

If the Brewers didn’t have the division locked up this game would be upsetting me.

Just like that.

Trying to get by with Cousins the walking man didn’t work.

Letting that opportunity get away really hurts.

Add in some runs against this guy. Just remember his last appearance and repeat it.