BruisedCrew
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Brewers (Hall) vs Mets (Severino): 3/30/24, 12:40pm
BruisedCrew replied to Frisbee Slider's topic in Archived Game Threads
Brewers castoff Tyrone Taylor batting cleanup for the Mets. -
And then deal with the critics who complain that she says “he said” too often. I haven’t figured out yet exactly how she’s supposed to report on conversations, both when interpreting or summarizing off camera conversations.
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Always nice to get that first one on the record.
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Hearing the “Let’s Go Mets” chants today reminds me of another of my favorite Opening Days. In 1973 the student radio station I broadcast for became an affiliate on the Mets network to add some programming and revenue that would allow it to continue broadcasting over the summer. As an affiliate all we had to do was contact the Mets and if there was availability they would leave us tickets. Opening Day wasn’t a big deal in NY in those days so a friend and I were able to get freebies. We drove the hour or so to Shea Stadium to see Hall of Famers Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton square off. Carlton had won 27 games the year before for a Phillies team that only won 57 games. The Mets rode 2 HR from Cleon Jones to beat the Phil’s 3-0 in a game that lasted an hour and 59 minutes. Good times. (Thanks to Baseball Reference for refreshing my memory on some of the details.)
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Ah, the first wasted scoring opportunity of the season.
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I think I looked into this some time ago, and that the answer is that the ABs against LH starter include all ABs in a game started by a LHP, where the other reflects only ABs against a LHP (whether that pitcher was a starter or a reliever).
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And people used to point to that to support the argument that Craig Counsell is a plus manager. Of course 86 wins is within the realm of possibility. But I hardly see it as the midpoint of reasonable expectations.
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I saw that, but he appears to be using some Fangraphs projections and then ignoring others. If the point is that the offense is going to improve enough to overcome a significant decline in pitching, I'll put an "I'll believe it when I see it" on that. The everyday lineup is still littered with several players with no record of success in the big leagues.
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Who are these starters that are above replacement level to take all of these starts? Especially when you factor in that more injuries to pitchers are all but certain. Even the most optimistic Brewer fans have to concede that the rotation is not great and that the depth is a concern when you factor in that several pitchers are already dealing with injuries and/or have a history of injuries.
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So, you're using pieces of the Fangraphs projections to produce an expectation of 86 wins. But the Fangraphs projection for the Brewers is 80 wins. How do you reconcile that? Are you being too generous about the Brewers offense? Mediocre doesn't necessarily mean precisely league average.
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I'd like to know what some people are smoking when they think this is a starting rotation that's going to pull a team with a mediocre offense to 85 wins or more.
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It has now been officially postponed to Friday.
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Brewer win total in 2024 season?
BruisedCrew replied to Sixtolezcano's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There’s a lot more to it as others have discussed. Your disagreement is noted. For one thing, almost half of the Brewers starts last year came from pitchers no longer on the roster. Are those starts going to be taken by pitchers who will cover as many innings and, as a group, be as effective as those pitchers? With potentially more innings to cover, will the bullpen be as effective as last year, even without a proven closer? Is the offense really going to be better than last year, and by enough to make up for what figures to be a less reliable pitching staff? Lots of big questions and several unproven players will be providing the answers. -
The weather forecast for NYC tonight and tomorrow sounds very similar to what we had here the last few days. Rainy. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear, even as early as tonight, that the Mets are taking advantage of the built in off day to play Friday when conditions are expected to be much better.
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Brewer win total in 2024 season?
BruisedCrew replied to Sixtolezcano's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
78 wins. Way too many holes and question marks for me to expect more. -
One other favorite Opening Day was in April of 1970 when I took a day off from my senior year in high school to see the Brewers first game ever. Even though they lost 12-0 it was great to have a team again.
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This was mine too. Stuck it out in the bitter cold to see the great finish. Went to the second game that year too and saw the Brewers hit two grand slams in one inning in a rout over the Red Sox. After that the season was more than a slight disappointment.
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https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2024/03/25/brewers-garrett-mitchell-suffers-hand-fracture-to-miss-opening-day/73099810007/
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🤦🏻♂️
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Lighten up everybody. Someone posted a few pages back that Brewers fans were the only ones who thought this was a bad trade for the Brewers so I was amused when I saw this one on a sidebar as I was doing something else. I didn’t post that because of its insightful analysis.
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Cubs' Shot at Division Title Skyrocket After Trade (msn.com) This site thinks it was a great deal...for the Cubs.
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Even if the pitching is no worse than 2018, the offense has to improve A LOT to contribute as much as 2018 with MVP Yelich, All Stars Cain and Aguilar, aging but still productive Ryan Braun, etc. The biggest thing in the Brewers favor is no obvious dominating team in the division.
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That sounds like a lot of ifs, and also seems to assume that some of the young players that have been hyped on this board are no better than replacement level. I realize that trading Burnes was probably a move that had to be made and that the return they got might have been as much as could have been expected. What depresses me, though is that, once again, the future that looked bright a few years ago did not pan out as hoped, and the Brewers are forced to regroup and try to be competitive with a different formula. They seem to go through this cycle every 4-5 years since they broke out of the doldrums of 1993-2006. Don't get me wrong. The last 15 years have been much more entertaining than the 15 than preceded them. But the franchise seems to be following a Sisyphian pattern. In 2020, a generally mediocre team displayed some hope that the Brewers could succeed with an elite staff of starters and bullpen arms that could make them a difficult opponent in a playoff series. Adding Adames in 2021 threw an exciting young position player into the mix and led to one of the best Brewers seasons ever despite the late season and playoff swoon. Trading Burnes highlights that the elite pitching era for the Brewers is over and leaves the Brewers with a lot of question marks in both pitching and hitting. So, it's back to "the future is bright" and hoping that some players with no major league track record blossom into something above replacement level.
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Is anyone taking the position that this trade will make the Brewers better this season?
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A 25 year old who’s still in the minor leagues doesn’t strike me as a likely prospect.
