Madhawk23

Yeah, would love to see us get involved here, but I'd give it almost a zero percent chance that we do.

Looks like Davis was their primary third baseman this year (at least until they acquired Todd Frazier). He was...not great. I wonder if he could handle first? Unfortunately, the thing that might hurt us most in our attempts to trade for any offensive help this winter - is the emergence of the DH in the NL. If the DH becomes permanent in the NL this year, then guys like JD Davis, Edwin Rios, etc. might not find themselves in a logjam on their current teams. If the DH doesn't become permanent, then the Mets and Dodgers might be more willing to talk about these guys, as they then become more expendable on their rosters.

The Dodger organization is one of the best in the league at talent evaluation and their GM is under zero pressure from ownership. Why give up their next generation of players for Hader, when they can sign Liam Hendriks or Colome, or resign Treinen if they decide they don't have an MLB caliber closer in house? If the Brewers trade Hader it would only be if there was a monster return coming back. The Dodgers simply have no reason to pay a seller's market price for Hader. Teams that may have an interest in paying a high cost in young talent for a relief ace would be teams like the White Sox, Houston Astros, or the Braves. Teams that are full of young talent, and where Hader would immediately slot into the #1 spot in the bullpen depth chart. I hear what you are saying, but I think it all depends on what type of value the Dodgers place on Hader. If they think he's still the top closer in baseball, then maybe they decide to pony up for him this winter. But, as I mentioned earlier - I only think they do that if they fail to win a championship again this year and their pen is a big reason why they don't. Could they just go spend the money on Hendriks or Colome? Sure. But again - it depends on how highly they value a guy like Hader. Also, guys like Rios, Ruiz and someone like Gray appear to be guys that are at positions of great depth in their organization. And, are guys at position of need for us. So, that's why I remain hopeful that the Dodgers become really motivated this winter to talk to us about Josh.

Good start on that front as Kenley Jansen gives up two runs in the 9th inning tonight and is pulled after Grisham’s RBI single cuts the Dodgers lead to one. Unfortunately the Dodgers held on to win, but Jansen doesn’t look like a pitcher destined to be the Dodgers closer much longer. His fastball was sitting 89-90 mph tonight. After the game last night Dave Roberts promised to rethink the closer role. I’ll just add that something is definitely going on with Jansen. He is throwing his sinker less reliably and his cutter velocity this season has been dropping rapidly. According to Brooks Baseball in August his cutter averaged 91.66 mph, in September it averaged 90.16 mph, and now in the playoffs it’s averaging just 89.71 mph. The Dodgers have a good bullpen, but if this is the end of the road for the 33 year old Jansen as their closer they don’t really have an obviously replacement. Graterol appears very good, but he is likely best suited to a multi-inning reliever role. I don’t know if they’ll ever be willing to pay a high price for a closer, but they are definitely a team that appears in need of one this offseason. No doubt...the first piece of this puzzle is settling in place. Now, we just need Jansen to continue these struggles throughout the playoffs, and we desperately need the Dodgers to lose out on another championship. If they miss out on another ring AND have a big hole in the closer role this winter - then maybe they finally pony up with a nice package for Hader?

clancyphile mentioned this trade idea in another thread, but since it involves Hader, I thought I'd bring it here as well: Brewers get: Jeff McNeil JD Davis Mets get: Josh Hader Josh Lindblom Luis Urias Curious for opinions on this trade proposal? I think Davis is expendable for the Mets, but I'm not sure they would be motivated to move McNeil? Seems like they need SP help, but Lindblom can't have much in the way of value. Urias would still provide some upside for them, but let's face it - his first two stints in the majors haven't looked great.

I was all about a Hader for McNeil/Smith deal last offseason, and I still am this year. Solves a LOT of problems. After this season, I think Hader/Urias/Lindblom for McNeil (3B)/Davis (1B) makes a lot more sense. A McNeil-Hiura-Yelich-Davis 2-3-4-5 in the lineup is hard to beat. Puts Garcia at 6, Narvaez at 7. Means Arcia sticks around, but if he can put up a .734 OPS, he's not bad in the 8 hole - he gets a 4-year, $16 million deal. Keep Gyroko, Sogard, and Taylor as the core of the bench with Nottingham as the #2 catcher and Hummel as the backup corner OF who could also be a #3 catcher. For pitching, sign Bauer to a one-year deal. Here's how the 26-man looks: cf: Cain 3b: McNeil 2b: Hiura lf: Yelich 1b: Davis c: Narvaez rf: Garcia ss: Arcia pitcher bench: Nottingham, Sogard, Gyroko, Taylor, Hummel rotation: Bauer, Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, Houser bullpen: Peralta, Suter, D. Williams, Rasmussen, Knebel, Torres-Costa, Andrews, Yardley I have no idea if the Mets would have interest in your trade idea, but I think this is one that I could get behind. Would help fill two big offensive holes right now on our team, with guys that we would at least have a few years control over. Again though, I just don't know if the Mets would be motivated to move McNeil right now - especially for a reliever (as the headliner coming back to them)? With Dom Smith emerging this year, that would seemingly make JD Davis expendable. I like your Bauer idea, but I think we all know that ain't happening!

I hear you. A lot of question marks all around the diamond moving forward, and that includes OF. But, I'm selfishly hoping that we can address some of the corner IF issues we have in our system right now in this Hader trade. I know that's not Stearn's usual philosophy, as he typically likes to accumulate up-the-middle players with more positional flexibility, but eventually we need to find some young, power bats at 1B and 3B that we can have some control over.

Brandon Marsh is the exact type of player that David Stearns covets. Tall, powerful, left-handed hitter who is a solid defender in CF or the corners. He's a very exciting prospect. I think any potential Hader deal has to start with him. Good point on Marsh. He probably would be a guy that DS would covet, and I'm sure would need to be the headliner coming back in any type of deal with the Angels. I just wasn't sure if we'd target another OF though with all of our needs right now at the corner IF and C positions?

After really talking through some of the teams that might have some interest in Hader this winter, I feel like we can identify a few different tiers. Top tier (teams that should be motivated to improve their pen that are also in a "win now" mode): Phillies Twins White Sox Angels Mid-tier (teams that will be in a win-now mode over next few years, but may/may not have much of a need for Hader): Dodgers (I would definitely move them up to top tier though if Jansen implodes this postseason and they don't win a title because of it) Padres Rays Blue Jays Wilcard tier (big market/spending teams that you can never truly rule out): Yankees Red Sox Mets How does this list look?

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that the Angels are always a wildcard team. Seems like every year they are making a big offseason signing (or two) and it just hasn't resulted in more wins. New GM, so maybe he would want to make a splash and go get one of the top relievers in baseball to help fix their bullpen issues. I guess my biggest question would be: how do they match up though? No way we are getting Jo Adell in a package back. I like Fletcher being a piece coming back, but are they really motivated to move a guy like him that has multiple years of control? And, wouldn't Fletcher slot into the 2B role that LaStella has filled in recent years? Looking at their top prospects, I'm not sure if I'm seeing much after Adell that would really pique my interest that much. But, maybe someone knows more about those guys than me?

Just had to look up Quintana's stats. Boy, it's shocking to see how pedestrian he has been the past few years, given how dominating he is against us every time we face him. I just assumed that he must have mid 3 ERA's and some solid peripheral numbers to go with it, but nope - not really. Clearly, every other team besides us has figured out how to hit that guy. I'd probably take a hard pass on him unless if you can get him on a really cheap one-year "prove it" deal and if you think that you can fix some of the issues that may have been holding him back with the Cubs the past few years.

Lux did make the Dodgers’ NLDS roster, sort of curious to see how much he plays in this series. I still think the Dodgers hold onto him long-term, but he did struggle in a limited sample this season (69 plate appearances). Just because the Dodgers have lots of young position players, doesn't mean they are a potential landing spot for Hader. Jansen is entrenched as the closer and has a 21 million dollar contract for 2021. Graterol is the heir apparent and is pre-arbitration eligible. Dylan Floro and Caleb Ferguson are relief pitchers for the Dodgers who remain under team control for multiple seasons. Victor Gonzalez was a rookie out of the Dodger pen with great numbers. With the talent they have in the bullpen there is no reason for them to give up a player like Gavin Lux. Hader will not make that much of an improvement to an already strong bullpen to warrant giving up hitters they have earmarked to step in for players like Kiki Hernandez when they reach free agency. I hear what you are saying here. But, I guess that's why I'm hoping that LA misses another shot at a championship this year, which will only motivate them even more this winter to build around this current core. Let's face it - they NEED to get a ring soon here with this group of players. If Jansen stumbles this postseason and blows some late leads, that can only be a good thing for us. I doubt that we could get Lux from them (even after his small-sample struggles this summer), but I do still think we could match up with the Dodgers well. I'd be all on board for a Gonsolin OR Gray, Edwin Rios and Migueal Vargas type package for Hader. Or, if they want to hold onto their pitching, how about a Ruiz, Rios and Vargas package? In the first scenario, we'd get a guy that we could probably slot into our MLB rotation right away, a guy that can play another position of need right away at 1B, along with a good looking 3B prospect. In the second option, you are just subbing in a MLB ready catcher that could come in immediately and platoon with Narvaez at that position. Dodgers would be trading from positions of organizational depth, and the Brewers would be sending one of the best relievers in baseball to a Dodgers team that might have a big need if Jansen falters this postseason.

Yes its old. Like mid 30s. Like La Stella. I throw Cabrera out there for 1st because guy has played SS and his Def rated positive for 1b. He's a 15-20 HR switch hitter who had an OPS that would have been 4th this year on the team and 100+points higher than Smoak. 8hrs this year, 18 in '19. You just know what you're getting with him. Maybe even get in the ears of Urias. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/mlb-free-agent-preview-first-base-2020-2021.html/url] for a reference what's out there. That is Cron, Lamb, retreads Smoak and LoMo, Dietrich, and Brad Miller. Cabrera played in 131games in 2019 his lowest in 10seasons. As I said #5 or #6 hitter. .260/.320/.435 18HRs under 125ks. Not a hindrance defensively. From the list on MLBTR, who else can you pencil that in with? Switch hitter means Counsell won't have to platoon him with somebody. Career on 3rd less than 2outs-.923OPS. 893 OPS as 1b this season. Over .900 OPS as a PH for his career. So please go ahead and tell me how he doesnt help the lineup? Looking deeper at his splits, he his exactly everything the lineup needs. And he can move over to play 3rd or 2b and not hurt your defense doing so. Would I like a 900OPS bat at 1b? Of course. Doesn't exist in this FA. I'm with you. If we could sign Asdrubal to play some 1B (while also providing some defensive flexibility at 3B as well), I think that would be as good as we could realistically hope for this winter. I see that he signed for 1 year 2.5M this past year, so I would have to assume a similar deal could be had this year? Cron wouldn't be the worst option either, but if we are bringing Gyorko back, then I'm not sure if he matches up well as a 1B platoon - as both are righty hitters. Out of the limited options that exist on this F/A market at 1B, I think I'd rank them Cabrera first and Cron second. My wildcard pick would be a reunion with Thames if the Nats decline his option. On the pitching side - what do people think Mike Minor will command this winter? Would he be a good bounce-back option to replace Anderson? He's only a year removed from being really good for the Rangers, and I'm sure some time will probably pony up for a 2-3 year deal, with the assumption that his 2020 was an anomaly. If he falls through the cracks though, this is a guy that I wouldn't mind striking a deal with if the price was right.

Yeah, thanks for doing this exercise. Interesting to see how many other Brewers teams would have made it in under these expanded playoff scenarios. I think we all can agree that 16 teams is way too many. Personally, I would be on board with your 12 team scenario. It would at least expand it by to extra teams each year, but not completely water it down. Making the postseason in baseball has always meant something, and I would just hate for it to turn into the NBA.

Agreed. We need to stop going back to the Sogard well so often! He gave us a good 1/2 season in '17, but has been terrible in a Brewers season ever since. Like many (I'm looking at you Omar!) in '19, I think he benefited greatly from the juiced baseball that MLB was clearly using.

I was all about a Hader for McNeil/Smith deal last offseason, and I still am this year. Solves a LOT of problems. I'd love to find a way to get a guy like McNeil, but I guess I don't understand why the Mets would be motivated to move him? Also, I'm not sure if they have a huge need for Hader, do they? Edwin Diaz had a real nice year, and they also have Familia. Seems like starting pitching was more their problem this summer.

Let me throw another team out there: Blue Jays Obviously, they have a young offensive lineup, and got a taste of the postseason for the first time this year. In looking at their bullpen, looks like they had a bit of a "closer by committee" approach this year? Do we think they might want to make a stronger run at a playoff spot next year - especially if we do get some type of expanded playoffs moving forward? With the Rays and Yanks ahead of them though, I think it would take the expanded playoffs for them to be interested. Would they have anyone in their system that would be appealing to Stearns. Seems like most of their prospects are a few years away at best.

They don't call him "Stormin Gorman" for nothing!

Wasn't it Ricketts who had been suggesting that they were going to be cutting payroll, instead of adding to it? Can't imagine his stance has changed after the $$ lost during COVID, but maybe that new TV network will start paying off for them right away?

It is a fun dream to think about! And, he did mention that he likes Milwaukee, right? I was initially thinking he would get between 25-30M next year, but you might be right with your 35M - if he does just go year to year. If there's one thing we know about Stearns - it's that he doesn't like to spend a lot on pitching. So, I'd be shocked if we are in play here.

Padres are the only team I'm missing on there, you got the other realistic candidates on there already. Though who knows how high their payroll will go. They are at ~$90m for 2021 already before taking arbitration into account. And their arbitration eligible players include Pham, Davies, Clevinger, Lamet, none of whom will be cheap. Yates and Rosenthal are free agents, so they have a need. They're certainly able to fit in his salary, but remains to be seen if they actually will. Yeah, Padres could be a good option as well. I know they still have a good farm system, but with our dire need for young bats - I'm not sure if they match up perfectly? If we could get Patino and Campusano, I'd probably be on board. But, I doubt the Pads make that move.

Thank you NBA playoff system! In all seriousness though - I really hope that Manfred doesn't expand the playoffs to 14-16 teams moving forward. This year was evidence that it just waters down the playoffs too much. It has always meant something to make the playoffs in MLB, and this Brewers team had no business making the postseason this year. I was fine with getting "crazy" this year with some of the rule changes (some I'd be OK with as permanent) and playoffs, but I hope they don't get crazy with the playoffs moving forward.

I know it's probably too early to do this exercise, but what teams do we think might be in play for a Hader trade this offseason? I'll start, but feel free to add others that you think might be motivated to make a deal for one of the best closers in baseball: Phillies: this is a no brainer, as their pen has been a big reason why they continue to miss the playoffs - despite a huge payroll and Bryce Harper in his prime. The problem here is - I don't know if we match up well with them? I'd want Bohm in any package coming back, and I doubt they'd part with him now. Dodgers (maybe?): If LA fails to win a title this month, and their pen fails them - then I think they might get desperate enough to add a weapon like Hader. Plenty of young bats and arms that would be appealing to the Crew. Twins: Seems like it was more of the bats that failed them this year against the Astros, but they also seem to lack real difference makers in their bullpen. They also have to be extremely desperate to end that playoff losing streak next year, so maybe they get motivated enough to make a trade for Hader? Plenty of young bats/arms in their system that should be appealing to DS. White Sox: a young team that might be 1-2 players away from being a title contender next year. Looks like Colome is a F/A this winter if I'm seeing it correctly, and that Crochet kid that they brought up a week or two ago went down with forearm tightness in their final game yesterday. We know that their system is still pretty loaded with good bats and arms, so this might be a team that would match up really well for a Hader trade? What other teams am I missing that would be both motivated (1-2 players away and needing pen help), and have the young talent we would probably want in a return?

Sign me up for both of those signings, but I'm guessing competition might be pretty stiff for both? Of course, the one big wildcard that we just don't know about yet is what the market is going to look like this winter? I would imagine an intense standoff this winter between what the players want with some of these FA deals and what the owners are willing to pay players after losing millions this year during the pandemic. Seems like it would be a safe guess to assume that we won't see many signings until Jan/Feb this winter. Does Stearns just admit he made a mistake on Narvaez and cut him loose to sign another catcher, or do we give Omar another shot next year? Boy, he looked terrible at the plate and behind the plate this year. What do we do at 1B? Gyorko ended up being our best option this year, but I don't want to go into a season depending on him to play the majority of the games at 1B. I'd rather have him in more of a utility role. Vogelbach might be able to give you some games there, but he's obviously more of a DH. Do we trade one of Arcia or Urias this winter? I really don't want to go into next season having those guys slotted at SS and 3B. I think we need to decide on one of them for SS and then either trade the other - or move Urias to 2B (which would move Hiura to DH). But, I think we need to find a decent bat at 3B. We also need to figure out 3-5 in our rotation. Houser needs to get a plan in place to get lefty hitters out if he's going to stay in the rotation. Lindblom - ugh, I don't even know what he needs to do to get better? Lauer - he can't possibly be this bad, right? Maybe send him to the pitching lab all winter? Can Freddy continue to work on his secondary pitches this winter to make himself more of an option as a rotation piece, or are we just fine having him in the long relief role? Do we bring Anderson back, or find another cheaper FA option? A lot of question marks with this team heading into '21. Of course, maybe the biggest will be regarding Yeli. We NEED him to return to his '18 and '19 form. I have no idea what was wrong with him this year, but it wasn't pretty.

A year ago I probably would have scoffed at this proposal, but honestly - I'd sign up for this type of package now as I just don't think we are going to get that huge prospect haul like we all hoped we would get. In fact, a package of Gonsolin, Rios and Busch might get laughed at by the Dodgers front office, as they may not even want to give up that much for a reliever (even one that's been as good as Hader). I think we have to hope that Josh has a great series this week against the Dodgers, just to remind them of how good he can be. Then, I think we have to hope the Dodgers blow another opportunity to win it all over the next month - with their pen showing it's warts. If those things happen, maybe we could get them to do a deal like this? Gonsolin seems like the exact pitcher the Brewers would target. A stater with a mid 90's fastball and a high spin rate...and he's proven he can be an effective starter. If I'm the Dodgers, I don't know that I'd trade him for a reliever, but that has been the one area they're not totally dominant, so if they'd do it, I'd definitely make that deal. And then I'd bring Knebel back. He looked like he was starting to regain his form later in the year. Maybe we work out an incentive laden deal and give him the first chance to win the closers job. I'm not sure how much we'd lose from Knebel to Hader(particularly if the prior is back to pitching like he has). But we'd have 3 power pitchers in our rotation. And if you can add a couple of guys who can become good hitters... Not sure I'd do this is I were the Dodgers...give up a young pitcher who's pitched well, but if they can't win this year...maybe they're desperate enough. Yeah, I think our only hope here is if the Dodgers blow another chance this year to win it all, and Kenley Jansen is a big reason why they don't get the job done. Maybe then they'll be desperate enough to go out and make a trade for Hader this winter. It would appear that the Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches in the starting pitching department, so at least it would be a position of depth for them to trade from if they did decide to part ways with Gonsolin. They'll still have Kershaw, Buehler, Price, May, Urias, Graterol, and Josiah Gray knocking on the door next year. Or, if they are unwilling to give up Gonsolin, maybe we ask for Gray instead? Gray, Rios and Busch for Hader? Too much to ask for?