82brewcrew82

I'm kind of surprised they haven't brought in a pen arm yet. Makes me think they are waiting on the 3B dust to settle before spending any more money.

Sure, but isn't also incumbent on DS to come off of asking for the moon is no one is willing to give it? I happen to think the use of analytics has made "fleecing" in trades less common unless you are a team that is literally one player away from a really dominant team, then you may see an overpay but it is not going to be all that common moving forward. I also think we are in an era where we have some really good GMs all over the league. Thus, expecting the other side to be dumb enough to be "fleeced" is asking a lot in my opinion. Hader is worth whatever the top price is that another team is willing to pay whether we like that or not. The only question is whether he is worth more to us than he is to any other team. A team like the Brewers HAS to turn assets like Hader in order to stay successful long term.

I think it's an option but I don't think it's written in stone yet. DS doesn't typically make his big strike until mid January. Maybe he does it again, maybe not. If not, then I'll worry about whether Urias will start at third.

Hader is a valuable asset and his future needs to be handled carefully by the Brewers. I get that some folks think the moon is the target but I am of the opinion that we will never see that type of return for Hader. If, hypothetically, you were to come to the same conclusion as me, when then do you trade Hader? Never? That seems short sighted and a poor way to run an organization like the Brewers. At some point he needs to be turned over for more controllable assets and, ideally, you do that at his peak...which is now.

Um, yes it does. A fact can be proven true or false, an opinion cannot. Your (or anyone else's) opinion is, quite literally, not a fact. Why not? It's what you do...in literally every thread...with literally the exact same point. So Thompson never signed big name free agents except those times when he did? I'd say at least one, if not both, of those losing seasons had to do with losing one of the better QBs in the game due to injury, not just lack of veteren depth. I'd further suggest that most any team that lost a QB of that caliber would be in jeopardy of having a losing season which says nothing of the number of other significant injuries the packers sustained in those two years which, again, would torpedo most any team in the league. All of this in no way addresses the comically wide gulf that represents the financial architecture of the two sports which makes any comparison between the two apples and oranges. In any case, if signing "name" free agents is the key to playoff appearances, how do you explain one very near miss and two years of playoff appearances for the Brewers during DSs tenure without utilizing your magic potion for success? If they don't have veteran depth, and veteran depth is the key to success by your measure, how did they overcome significant injures to their best starter this year (Woodruff) and last (Nelson) and best positional player this year (Yelich)? No, they really are not and even if they were your theory is easily disproven. The 2018 Phillies spent big on "name" free agents like Arietta and Harper and that didn't work out all that well. It just isn't a formula with a guaranteed result.

Considering the past two seasons their biggest moves were made in mid-January or later (Yelich, Cain, Grandal, and Moustakas), I think there's still plenty of time to pull off some nice acquisitions. I'd disagree with this being backwards. They came into the season with a ton of holes to fill (C, 1B, 3B, SS, Util IF, OF depth, SP, SP...SP, RP...RP). 3B wasn't the only, and wasn't even necessarily the biggest hole to fill at the time, they had to find options for all over the field. If DS had targeted a big 3B acquisition right out of the box, it would have immediately limited the financial flexibility, trade asset flexibility, and/or positional flexibility he had in finding players to fill the rest of the team with. Instead, he first targeted value acquisitions, regardless of specific position, to fill out the team. This has left him with a ton of resource flexibility to target the remaining spots on the roster that could still improve the most, namely 3B. But even at 3rd he's in a much better spot with Sogard/Healy/Urias than he came into the offseason with, so he doesn't need to make a desperate move if the right opportunity doesn't come along. That said, I'd place my bets on one or two more significant moves being made before Spring rolls around. This is absolutely perfect on both accounts.

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I agree on File. Not a flame thrower but not a soft tosser either, he has been on my radar or over a year now. Unfortunately the prospect rankers seem to rely more on "what have you done for me lately" than anything else so I'm not surprised. Having said that, I would think that not having thrown any meaningful amount of innings since being drafted is a problem. That goes beyond "he's a project" to me. I also agree there are some sneaky good options in the minors to back-fill pen roles as the the season moves on.

No, no. My apologies, not arguing with you at all. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions that are being drawn based on arbitrary assumptions and there is definitely some hyperbole going on but I get your perspective.

I don't know how you can determine a trend from one year of data and, in reality, I don't know how can determine anything reliable from one year of defensive metrics. I don't think it's fair to just extrapolate out Andujars one year and make that conclusion and just assume no improvement. The metrics show Castellanos was actually worse than Andujar so these statements about Andujar being so bad he makes Castellanos look good are certainly being overblown. I mean, if being a bad defensive player is not acceptable why are the same people not clamoring to trade Hiura? Why does Andujar have to be considered the centerpiece just because he is included in the deal? Maybe DS sees Garcia or Dominguez as the real prize and Andujar as one of the "other" pieces. Frankly, the resistance to trading with the Yankees seems much more about not wanting to trade with the Yankees than it does anything esle.

You are much more informed than me on this so lay it out for me. What metric, that is reliable with basically one year of data, is being used to determine that Andujar is the worst 3B since Ryan Braun (hyperbolic, yes)? What skill set does Castellanos possess that allowed to improve that Andujar does not have? Is Andujar stiff? Is he not athletic enough to improve? Will all the shifting we do mitigate some of the issues? Can he be moved to another position in a year or two and we survive with him at third for a couple of years? Not being a jerk or sarcastic, I legitimately respect your thoughts on these questions.

I think this is a viable option as well. My issue is that with the way he throws and the workload he has put in, I think his arm is a ticking time bomb. I don't think he makes it another four years and I'm not sure he makes it another two years. Maybe that is my personal irrational fear but it seems just as likely we get nothing for him if we wait too long. Folks talk like it's a guarantee we can move him at any time, it isn't. If DS gets the value he wants now, deal him now.

Why would DS get fleeced and Cashman make out like a bandit two years later? This just seems irrational to me (I know you are not irrational). Further, why are we basing the value of the return on arbitrary prospect rankings? How did those prospects work out? Were they really the 21st and 69th best prospects? What if DS values say, Garcia, as a top 20 prospect (not that a GM would think in terms of rankings)? Honestly, do we not trust DS over a bunch of under-informed message board junkies (myself included)?

I don't think I'm 100% correct but I'd be shocked if some of the returns I'm seeing proposed actually end up happening, and yes, I'm fairly confident in that statement. It's not like your comments haven't been equally assumptive and absolute. I don't think Hader returns a Torres (or a Judge, or a Severino or anything equal to that from any other team) or a combination of Lux and May and I'd be willing to bet a fair amount on that. Again, not one single person on this board is not going to take the time to consider the components of any trade and draw their own conclusion. You keep making these strawman arguments as though people are actually saying things they aren't saying. DS has done a pretty good job of acquiring talent in whatever deals he has made. Do you honestly believe he is going to trade Hader just to trade Hader? Hader isn't getting dealt unless DS thinks he is getting a favorable deal. The guy isn't perfect but he isn't an idiot either. I'm not sure what analogy your trying to make here. If I get a loan for my house it really doesn't matter whether my house is worth $200,000 or $250,000, the interest rate for buying that home is going to generally be the same. The value of the asset doesn't affect the interest rate. In any case this is a trade, not a purchase. Hader is worth whatever a partner team is willing to pay for him, nothing more. You don't have to like it, and you can certainly keep him rather than trade him, but that doesn't materially change his value. The fact that we CAN keep him really doesn't change that and it certainly doesn't create the leverage some folks think it should. The Yankees, for instance, have the resources to go out and acquire another asset that may be nearly as good as Hader (or at least close enough to satisfy themselves).

Data is fine, no question about it, but a lot of times, and it's not just posters here but people in a lot of different places think analytical numbers are gospel. That's what bothers me about it. People have clung to analytics like they are the be all end all, and an absolutely perfect system. I have news for those people. It's not perfect. never has been, never will be. Sometimes, keeping it simple is all you need. I mean look at how many people here cite War...like it's the be all end all and if they don't have this or that War, that means they aren't very good, as if that tells them everything they need to know. It isn't. I mean back before analytics existed, people were able to tell who was good and who wasn't by using the simple eye test(which to me is still accurate), now, it seems people don't trust their eyes enough that they are relying on analytics to essentially "do the work for them". How did we ever survive this life without analytics and advanced metrics?? Back before we had stoves and microwaves we could cook well enough. Ovens and microwaves have made cooking a whole lot more efficient and accurate tho. Having said that, there isn't one person on this board that will tell you analytics is the end all be all. Not one...ever. This is just another straw-man argument and an attack on those that actually understand the analytics and how to use them. They matter because our eyes lie to us and the "eye test" is every bit as flawed as some of the metrics. Heck, this entire window this team is operating is highly analytically driven and it has been a complete success. The proof is right there. Having said that, I am increasingly in the camp that suspects Andujars defensive shortcomings are being a bit overplayed, particularly when equally poor defenders are being proposed as alternatives.

Strawman, not one person has made the claim that DS is perfect.

This exactly. I don't want to trade Hader for a "fair" return. I want a team to pay through the nose for him. If they don't, I'm hanging on to one of the top relievers in the game. If a team really wants him, they'll meet the asking price. Of course, we have no idea what that asking price is, but it better be dang high. I just don't see the Yankees as a match, despite what the national pundits think. Their system kinda sucks, and a lot of their higher ranked guys in their system are super young. I don't care how well Dominguez is ranked. I just don't have any interest in waiting around for a 16-year-old "Maybe". Andujar is a decent piece, but he's coming off a lost year, and has defensive issues. I don't think anyone on this board would disagree with this sentiment form either of you. I think the difference here is the definition of "paying through the nose". DS has a very strong track record of NOT settling and exchanging the asset he wants for the price he wants. I trust that if he does deal Hader, the return he gets will be one he considers to have been paid "through the nose". Whether that meets fans expectations is another story. I am of the opinion that the fan version of "paying through the nose" isn't realistic.

Ummm might want to do some research as Garcia ended the year in AAA. Regardless, he's 20 years old and not a major league piece, not instantly anyway. Pretty darn close. My guess is that if we had a 20 year old starting pitcher putting up the numbers Garcia is, we'd be drooling over the potential.

The market will always dictate what your asset is worth. It's a fallacy that the owner of the asset controls that narrative. If no one is willing to pay the price, it isn't worth the price you think it is no matter how desirable you believe your asset to be. Sure, you can hold on to it and take the gamble that it may be worth more tomorrow, but then you learn they are building an outlet mall across the street and suddenly it's not quite so desirable. The gamble can cut both ways.

What if DS valued the other pieces in the deal more than Andujar?

This is a stretch. You don't get to decide the value of your home. If no one is willing to pay the $500,000 you want for it, then it isn't worth $500,000 and you lower the price. It happens every single day and it isn't low balling at all, that is how the market works. Sure you can hold on to it but every year it is going to get more and more expensive to maintain and you are eventually going to have to deal with significant repairs like a roof (shoulder) or HVAC (elbow) and loose some of the utility of the home. You have to pay to replace the broken things as well which incurs a certain opportunity cost. Personally, I'd take the market value and turn that into a less flashy house, a small beach house and a couple of rental properties that have a good chance of producing in the future.

No, you get market value for him. Last year Grandal and Moose were worth one year contracts. This year they are worth four year contracts because the market changed. Just because Chapman was worth Torres a few years back doesn't mean that is where the market is now. Not to mention that the Chapman deal was an overpay then and there isn't anything that says a team has to overpay again because they did in the past. I don't think the Chapman deal is a legitimate starting point. I understand holding on to him and that wouldn't bother me at all if DS didn't find a deal he thought was a good one. I think the fan disappointment angle is overblown as well. DS has put a pretty darn competitive team on the field for three years running with rosters consisting of players most fans would say "who" about. I think he's earned the cache needed for fans to trust him.

I don't think anyone necessarily thinks that they are, we are simply stating what WE(as GM) would require from the Yankees to move Hader. If the answer is "no" on Gleyber, then for me, that's fine, you simply move on and keep Josh. I just don't know how you could deal an all star player, and fan favorite like Josh for a package of prospects. You'd be vilified I think. Sure, the deal can include SOME prospects, but it also has to include at least one or two proven major league talents. Otherwise DS's statement about contending will ring hollow. This is all based on what? I can put my house on the market for $500,000 and truly believe it's worth that but if he high bid is $350,000 then is it really worth $500,000 or have I misjudged the value? Sure, I can stubbornly hang on to my house and risk that it won't start falling apart because I arbitrarily believe it's worth $500,000 when the market clearly says it isn't worth that. S0 you can hang on to Hader but if this is his high point in value and his value is going to depreciate, what are you going to get for him later? If the Dodgers were going to give up Lux and May in a deal then Lindor would most likely be a Dodger by now. If they aren't giving that up for Lindor, they aren't giving that up for Hader. I think the value placed on Hader has gotten way far out of control and a bit hyperbolic at this point. You aren't getting Torres (or Judge or Severino) and I highly doubt you get Lux AND May. And I'm not sure the smart play is to hang on to Hader.

I would be willing to bet large sums of money that if Hader is traded to the Yankess that the deal would not include any of Severino, Judge or Torres. If I had any of those players, I wouldn't trade any of them for Hader. I don't think Hiura or Woodruff are in that class yet so yes, I'd expect to have to trade one of those players but I wouldn't do it. In my opinion there is a certain amount of risk that comes with acquiring Hader and that has to be factored in.

This isn't going to happen. Not ever. So the choice is to trade Hader at his highest value or hold on to him. There is a lot of uncontrollable risk in holding but I certainly see the value in that as well. Personally, I'd deal him if DS feels the price is right.