TJseven7

The off the radar guy I'm a big fan of is Dylan File. In the last 2 years the only pitchers in AA that have shown better than File are named Brown and Supak. They are both considered top 12 prospects in the system. His k/9 is climbing and bb/9 falling. No love. I guess guys drafted in the 21st round who succeed aren't good. Guy could jump Supak and Brown this year. Everyone has seemed to completely forget Caden Lemons. He's 21. Small is nearly 23 for comparison. MKE drafted Lemons as a child. He's been a big invisible lottery ticket but the upside is still incredible and he gets completely ignored despite being a 2nd round pick and hitting 98 mph in HS. This brings me to a point of issue I have with almost all talent evaluators. Lemons is taken 46th and promptly placed 18th on the top 30 for the Brewers. He's young and seen as a big time project with monster upside. We are now 2.5 years removed and he's done nothing to elevate his stock. However, he's done nothing to lower his stock. He's 21. That's still young for A ball. I don't get why you call him a top 20 prospect in the MKE system then start grading him down immediately because he's developing like a project typically does. They knew the moment he was taken that it was going to be a long road. Then they call the MKE farm system crap. There aren't 30 guys with higher potential than this kid, and omitting him then calling the MKE system bad is in part due to them choosing to omit talent from the list. They are talking out of both sides of their mouth. Either you include the talent and rank the system based on talent or you never include projects and don't bump up other systems based on the projects they've collected. With a few additions to the pen in MKE, the AAA pen could be top to bottom stellar. I think the shuttle has a lot of options this year.

Difference is, the White Sox are starting their push with a lot of money to spend. The Brewers on the other hand, not so much. Pretty big difference imo. You completely missed the point. MKE started their push in 2018. They were coming off a 62 and 68 million dollar payroll season. CWS started their push this year. They are coming off 3 seasons where their payroll averaged 83 million. MKEs payroll averaged 121 million over the last 2 years. Clearly they had a ton of money to spend in 2018. Just like the CWS do in 2020. The only difference is the year that the 2 teams started in on the buying. MKE bought in 2018 and really spiked their payroll short term in 2019. This could be the CWS going all in. They might not spend for the next few years outside of Arby.

Yes Brewers bottomed out at 62 and 68 mil in 16 and 17. In 2018 they brought in Cain Yelich. 2019 Grandal and kept Moose. CWS isn't doing anything different. CWS is starting their push now. MKE is 2 years in.

They better be. They spent a ton. All in all it's discouraging as a Brewer fan to watch a team that drew a million or so fewer fans spend like that while the Brewers continue to shop in the bargain bin They burned their franchise to the ground to built up a massive farm. All those kids are starting in on the majors and their team is cheap and cost controlled. Their only spending was done on stuff this year and keeping abreu. They had 9 guys over 580k last year. They had 9 guys over 570k in 2018 and they were trying to expire the Shields disaster deal. The team burned it down. Ran bottom out payrolls for a few years and now that the youth is up they made a splash offseason. Do you get discouraged when you watch a guy eat ramen, gather aluminum cans and car pool to work for a few years after he finally saves up enough to buy himself a vacation? They penny pinched for years to earn this splash. Team had a 83 million dollar payroll for 3 years and won 67 games a year during that span. Give them their moment in the FA sun. Brewers in the last 2 years spent 242 million. They spent 249 in the last 3 years. They banked a full YEAR.

Because the eye test lies unless you actually watch the player an extensive amount through the eyes of someone who is actually qualified to scout. You'll never see me pointing to analytics as the end all be all. I sit in the camp of that believes great progress is being made but the metrics are still a long ways off from correct. Baseball is the sport that is furthest ahead. But you can't turn around and point to errors and fielding percentage and say in my day you just watched people and could tell a good player when you saw one. No, you couldn't. That's precisely why Beane succeeded. Perception on short sample sizes lie. Fielding percentage and errors tell you absolutely zero about range. They tell you absolutely zero about the ability of the 3b to make the throws required for the position. It tells you they didn't screw up things they touched and that they were accurate with a throw. One step down the analytics path shows him to be a dreadful 3b. His UZR is dreadful. Culprit. Range, no shock. Please don't reject analytics in the manor you do. It makes analytics folk lump people who are grumbling about inaccurate variables (in the attempts to challenge analytics to go further) with guys who watched a guy pick 5 balls at 3b and go, well he looks fine to me! I'd like to know how much you actually watched him to come the the conclusion of "I can just tell he's a good player." Looked at his offensive numbers? Looked at errors? If you go look at 2008-2011 Yuni B played around 4900 innings at SS. Yuni Bs range at SS = Castellanos range at 3B. It's that level of immobile. His F% was around .965 and he made 78 errors. Roughly 850 PO. In Castellanos 4400 innings only 310 PO. That's actually a bad F% and a lot of errors based on his attempts. Don't spit on analytics because it's stupid numbers kids OVERTHINKING, when you aren't doing the required work to have an educated opinion. You are pointing at basic stats to prove your point and you aren't even reading them correctly because you aren't even acknowledging volume. You'll come back and say, "well it's my opinion." Yeah, that's great but its a horrible take, that lacks a ton of information, any credibility and it's flatly wrong. The good old days weren't better, they were lazy and uninformed.

CONTROL When something makes absolutely zero sense the answer is always the simplest nonsense. Control, Fear etc.

So paying him 20 is like paying another elite arm 30? You are getting roughly 2/3rds of the starts. Give me Rich Hill for 1 year and no future concerns of the deal blowing up in our face. He's not as flashy but carries none of the risk. He's a poor mans Ryu.

Yeah, just get on base. I'm sure Yelich and Hiura will move you.

Put me down for Cishek McHugh and Walker. Walker as a swing man. (Woodruff Anderson are in, Houser Linblom Lauer could all be bumped to the pen by Walker if he's on and healthy) McHugh as the closer/2 Ip guy if Knebel takes the role back. 2.76 ERA career out of the pen over 114 innings. 10 more innings in the PS at 2.7 ERA. Cishek SU and he's basically alternated years being elite and solid. 2020 points towards elite. Free Hader up to be a weapon. Cishek McHugh 8-9 Hader weapon Peralta Walker and Suter 1 time through the order guys. Black because of potential and no options Claudio D Williams Wahl (pick 1 and start the shuttle bus) Knebel IL to start the year. At the end of the day I'd want the pen to be a traditional 8-9 (note, this doesn't mean Hader wouldn't get handed the ball in the 8th to close the game, but if he got weird in a bad way you got options) and 6 1 time through the order guys. Tell Rasmussen and Burnes (as a starter to bump Houser into the pen) to hurry up. I know I'm being greedy but Walker Cishek McHugh and Rich Hill would make for one heck of a smoke and mirrors pitching staff.

In comparison to MadBum and the deals of this off season I would agree that it's not an overpay. Depending on the vesting option criteria the length isn't toxic. However, this entire off season has been 1 giant overpay in comparison to the previous 2 years. I'm pretty content that MKE is laying low in a players market. The thing is the last two years are the outlier years. Every other year baseball inflation of 8% give or take is the norm. It doesn't pay to sit out and wait for next year, because next year will tack another 8% on contracts and go forward. This is the normal - at least until TV contracts come down. But you have to ask yourself why did the outlier happen. Teams over extend, beyond inflation and the nature of the fully guaranteed deals leave them stuck. Happens in the NBA too.

My god no. Please no more challenges with vague wording so that you can disregard making a change when you are wrong but almost not wrong. Let the machine call every pitch. If you do that and have a few challenges for plays around the diamond, they should be about as good as we can get.

His exit comments made it sound like HE thinks its the former. Doesn't mean it's true but if HE thinks so, that's a problem.

I think there are a few warning signs on Shaw. He seems like a bat that needs to be in the lineup daily or things go badly. When Boston started limiting his bats the year before MKE traded for him he tanked badly. Last year he struggled and MKE started limiting his ABs he kept right on tanking. I think he's got some Villar to him. Play him every day and he'll get hot at some point and pull up his numbers. Jostle him around and he folds. Then there's the problem that you don't want to play him vs LHP. I'd consider those warning signs. I also don't think he's done but I think there are warning signs that his 2 good years are going to be very hard for him to repeat.

The Blue Jays? 4 years is a long time. He's good, but that's 33-36 on a pitcher with 44 starts in the 3 years prior to last years 30. It's not like he's regularly putting up 32-35 starts a year. This one seems a slight bit under what the market is dictating right now. Probably due to the 15 starts per year in 2016-2018. That's still a lot though and I'm good with not spending 20 mil on a guy who is coming off a 30 start season which he hadn't done since 2013. 2017-2019 he averaged under 25 starts a year including the post season. Can I get an 8/1 on Rich Hill? He's pitched roughly 1.5 less starts than Ryu over the last 3 years and carried ERAs of 3.38 3.87 and 3.07. While Ryu's 3.77 1.97 and 2.32 is clearly better, Ryu's 4.87 ERA in his last 5 playoff starts vs Hills 8 starts at 2.43 is not.

Got a good friend who is a CWS fan. I've talked to him about them quite a bit. It's a fascinating team. They could absolutely be a Marlin type team that flies up into the WS. They could absolutely be a potential laden team that is too young to get off the ground.

I wanted Shaw in AAA pretty early in the process. I'm happy they didn't offer him arby. Yet, this is a great move by Toronto. If he finds it, he's every bit as valuable as Moose. If he doesn't, oh well it's Toronto. Shaw is a very risky (well as risky as a short term can be) signing who could make them look like genius'. Easily could be a guy who Toronto fans forgot played for them a year or two down the road. He's a fantastic addition for a team that doesn't have high expectations. The risk of him being a black hole again for MKE was plenty enough reason for MKE to walk away. Best of luck to him. Guy gave MKE 2 awesome years, went through some garbage and still delivered. I hope he finds it in Toronto but if anyone says after the fact that MKE should have kept him they are off their rocker. Guy is a complete coin flip going into 2020.

Here's my question to that. First a clarification: Yes losing Moose who they had for 1.5 years and Grandal who they had for 1 year hurts. (Both were possible acquisitions because the market tanked and they could buy very good players at a value 1 year prove it deal. I don't consider them a part of the core of this team because of that. Who did MKE lose from their CORE? I see a lot of moving pieces where the vast majority are average filler pieces. The massive turn over has largely been filler guys who were sent out and replaced with less expensive filler guys. Counting Guerra Jeffress Shaw Perez Thames Anderson Gio rental Lyles and Pom overstates what is happening. Thames cost 6.5 mil extra to keep. Smoak cost 4.5 mil. Essentially the same guy, save 2 mil, move on. Swapping half of the roster would be a problem if they were all "needle movers." Most were filler, glue guys, deadline adds. The guys they brought in cheaper are also filler, glue guys and when the teams playing well there'll be another round of deadline bargain bin adds on the way. I think DS needs to receive a TON of credit for exactly that. From every fan of this team. Yes, you can be disappointed that they didn't get big names. But he's done a wonderful job of getting above average filler as cheaply as possible. The stuff of this roster is going to turn over constantly and you can be mad that Grandal Moose are not back. Or you can be impressed MKE filled the FILLER portion of the roster so inexpensively that they were able to add them in the 1st place. There's 2 avenues to this team. The constant value controlled core building. The yearly filling out the roster with the best values available on the market. If we kept Guerra Perez Shaw Thames Saladino Anderson turn over would be far lower and no one would be excited about that. DS has replaced all of them for less money. That's something to be excited about. It should also excite fans that when last years trade deadline was unfolding DS sent out next to nothing and brought in 2 guys that no one was excited about and their success in MKE was able to springboard them into contracts that no one would have expected prior to the trade. This is just another wash rinse repeat. The core looks deeper with Narvaez Urias and maybe Lauer. The new value filler has plenty of potential to out perform their contracts. If you want flashy additions, I'll apologize for DS but don't pretend Woodruff Hader Hiura and Yelich went from our contending team to FA. Most of the stuff that we are turning over is fluff and filler.

Here's my question to that. First a clarification: Yes losing Moose who they had for 1.5 years and Grandal who they had for 1 year hurts. (Both were possible acquisitions because the market tanked and they could buy very good players at a value 1 year prove it deal. I don't consider them a part of the core of this team because of that. Who did MKE lose from their CORE? I see a lot of moving pieces where the vast majority are average filler pieces. The massive turn over has largely been filler guys who were sent out and replaced with less expensive filler guys. Counting Guerra Jeffress Shaw Perez Thames Anderson Gio rental Lyles and Pom overstates what is happening. Thames cost 6.5 mil extra to keep. Smoak cost 4.5 mil. Essentially the same guy, save 2 mil, move on. Swapping half of the roster would be a problem if they were all "needle movers." Most were filler, glue guys, deadline adds. The guys they brought in cheaper are also filler, glue guys and when the teams playing well there'll be another round of deadline bargain bin adds on the way. I think DS needs to receive a TON of credit for exactly that. From every fan of this team. Yes, you can be disappointed that they didn't get big names. But he's done a wonderful job of getting above average filler as cheaply as possible. The stuff of this roster is going to turn over constantly and you can be mad that Grandal Moose are not back. Or you can be impressed MKE filled the FILLER portion of the roster so inexpensively that they were able to add them in the 1st place. There's 2 avenues to this team. The constant value controlled core building. The yearly filling out the roster with the best values available on the market. If we kept Guerra Perez Shaw Thames Saladino Anderson turn over would be far lower and no one would be excited about that. DS has replaced all of them for less money. That's something to be excited about. It should also excite fans that when last years trade deadline was unfolding DS sent out next to nothing and brought in 2 guys that no one was excited about and their success in MKE was able to springboard them into contracts that no one would have expected prior to the trade. This is just another wash rinse repeat. The core looks deeper with Narvaez Urias and maybe Lauer. The new value filler has plenty of potential to out perform their contracts. If you want flashy additions, I'll apologize for DS but don't pretend Woodruff Hader Hiura and Yelich went from our contending team to FA. Most of the stuff that we are turning over is fluff and filler.

FA markets in every sport have years where the lag and years where they run hot. They are coming off 2 straight lag years. Teams are throwing money around irresponsibly. Even if the market is being set at this level this year, it doesn't mean that it won't correct soon. The 2020 market could be seen as a terrible investment when we look back on it in comparison to 2018 2019 and 2021. Ebb and flow. When they zig, you better zag. I'm glad they are laying low. Following the crowd when numbers balloon is a bad move.

FA markets in every sport have years where the lag and years where they run hot. They are coming off 2 straight lag years. Teams are throwing money around irresponsibly. Even if the market is being set at this level this year, it doesn't mean that it won't correct soon. The 2020 market could be seen as a terrible investment when we look back on it in comparison to 2018 2019 and 2021. Ebb and flow. When they zig, you better zag. I'm glad they are laying low. Following the crowd when numbers balloon is a bad move.

In comparison to MadBum and the deals of this off season I would agree that it's not an overpay. Depending on the vesting option criteria the length isn't toxic. However, this entire off season has been 1 giant overpay in comparison to the previous 2 years. I'm pretty content that MKE is laying low in a players market.

In comparison to MadBum and the deals of this off season I would agree that it's not an overpay. Depending on the vesting option criteria the length isn't toxic. However, this entire off season has been 1 giant overpay in comparison to the previous 2 years. I'm pretty content that MKE is laying low in a players market.

Well that would kill Grandal's framing value.

Well that would kill Grandal's framing value.

Don't really agree with how they "framed" that article. Projected WAR in vs actual war out would have held more water. You can project Shaw as a .9 WAR player all you want but he gave MKE -.9 last year. Saying they aren't better than they would have been if they kept all the pieces together is fine and all, but that's also far more expensive than what they have done to this point. Basically, the team can achieve a higher overall WAR in 2020 than it did in 2019 even if the 2019 roster achieves a higher overall WAR than the 2020 team does. Also saying they've shaved payroll isn't the half of it. Their payroll would be quite a bit higher than 2019 if they had kept the 2019 team intact for 2020.