Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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1. That Dan Vogelbach (career .213/.337/.408 in 1159 ABs) brought back a 26 year old rookie reliver who Pittsburgh assigned to AAA, suggests to me that Hiura (career ,241/.324/.454 in 826 ABS) isn't going to be worth all that much. 2. With Omar Narvaez walking out the door after this season, the Brewers are not going to trade both Severino and Feliciano. If they traded a catcher I would expect it to be Narvaez or Caratini as they would have more value. 3. The Brewers are trying to win in 2022. Trading Kolten Wong could make sense in the right deal, but swapping him for minor leaguers makes the team worse in 2022. 4. The Dodgers have Craig Kimbrel. His ERA may not jump of the page this year, but his FIP is a nifty 1.95. Evan Phillips has also been lights out as a high leverage reliver. Plus, Brusdar Gaterol should be back this month, and Blake Treinen is throwing and should be back in a couple weeks, Would the Dodgers have interest in Hader? Sure, but they certain are not going to be "desperate" or part with key talent when the back end of their bullpen is already stacked with quality arms.
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It's just not a Cardinals move to be that reckless, and there are other moves that could be made that would deliver almost the same amount of improvement as Soto for less cost. They already have Arenado, Goldschmidt, a resurgent Tyler O'Neill and Nolan Gorman in the middle of their lineup. Sure, Soto would make any lineup better, but the Cardinals would be better served getting some pitching to go with Mikolas and Wainwright as both Flaherty and Matz are out long-term with injuries and Dakota Hudson currently on the IL. The cost in terms of talent to acquire say Jose Quintana and Noah Syndergaard would be much less than that to acquire Soto, and are they type of deals that are much more likely to occur. Further, the Cardinals have never exceeded a total payroll of 163 million dollars. But in 2022 they already have 100 million dollars guaranteed to just five players (Goldschmidt, Arenado, Mikolas, Matz and DeJong), adding what would conservatively be another 20 million for Soto in 2022 would make it tough for the Cards to hang on to arbitration eligible players: O'Neill, Flaherty, Helsley, Gallegos etc. let alone bring in enough pitching talent to have a playoff worthy staff without blowing by their previous threshold for payroll. They may very well have the talent to get it done, but its probably not the smartest move for the Cardinals to make all things considered.
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Nobody thought the Nationals would win the WS in 2019, and not many picked the Braves to get by the Brewers in 2021 let alone win it all, even the Milwaukee Brewers pushed the mighty Dodgers to the brink in 2018. It's getting to the playoffs and then playing well during the post-season that wins titles, not necessarily having the most talent. I assume your being facetious about the pitching. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff are as good as they come in terms of starters and they've pitched like it this year when healthy. Ashby and Lauer have been outstanding at times. Williams, Milner have been terrific. Hader stumbled into the break but allowed 17 baserunners during the first 3 months of the season. If you're really 35 you were alive when the Brewers had Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Yovanni Gallardo and Ryan Braun All Star players who had ten plus season major league careers. But look no further than other Top 50 prospects the Brewers had in the last 17 years and you'll see the that despite being a well regarded prospect it doesn't necessarily indicate the player will turn out to be a great major leaguer: Jose Capellan (#18 in '05), Mark Rogers (#40 in '06), Alcides Escobar (#8 in '09), Mat Gamel (#23 in '09), Brett Lawrie (#26 in '11), Orlando Arcia (#6 in '16) Lewis Brinson (#18 in '17). Like I said, its fun to muse about the Brewers acquiring Soto but I don't think it will happen. If I were in there shoes though I wouldn't miss the opportunity to acquire a generational talent for multiple seasons due to affinity for some minor league players multiple seasons away from the major leagues.
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Soto only played 122 games in the minor leagues and was in the majors for good at 19 years old, so Jackson has some catching up to do! Seriously though, Chourio could be a fantastic hitter, or he could be nothing, nobody really knows. On the other hand Soto already is a fantastic player. With these comments "we're more than one hitter away from being a serious contender", keep in mind the Brewers success is largely driven by pitching, and they're in first place with the 5th best record in their league. If the pitching holds, any addition to the lineup is going to make them a better club and add some balance. They will never have the talent of the Dodgers, nobody does, but the gap between the Brewers and Mets or Braves is Soto shaped.
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I think they needed a starting pitcher and realized Chi Chi and Jason Alexander weren't the answer so they've circled back to Small. With Peralta on a rehab assignment, if Small can command his pitches this time around he will likely get a couple of turns in the rotation until Freddy is good to go. Otherwise, with the number of days off until Mid-August they could probably get by with Johnny Wholestaff once a week.
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The Nationals have three big salaries (Corbin, Strasburg and Soto) and a ton of players on cut-rate one year deals. In other words, they're in essence a small market team, and the team is going up for sale. They are not "buying their way" into anything. I also don't see the Nationals having much interest in Hiura or Urias, for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, Hiura isn't amongst the Brewers 26 best players and in all likelihood is on his way to getting non-tendered after the season. (In fact, look at what the Pirates got for Dan Vogelbach--a 26 year old rookie relief pitcher, currently assigned to Pittsburgh's AAA-- and it gives you a fair indicator of what Hiura's value would be as a similar player who is a defensive liability and has similar career stats). Urias is a light hitting utility infielder who is also about to triple his earnings when he enters arbitration this winter. Secondly, Nationals are the worst team in the NL, and their minor league system is devoid of impact talent close to major league ready. They are likely 3 or more seasons away from being competitive in their Division, I don't see them having much interest in a couple of mediocre infielders from the Brewers who are entering arbitration. I don't think the Brewers have the quality of minor league talent to pull this kind of a deal off, but if they did it likely would be all minor leaguers and not trading from their major league roster, and it would probably need to be 4 or 5 out of their Top 10 prospects.
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Reynolds is 27, has an .848 career OPS, plays centerfield and is under team control through 2025. He’s Christian Yelich circa 2017. I’d give the Pirates all 3 without thinking much about it (not to mention acquiring Reynolds would effectively block Garret Mitchell, and Frelick until 2026 anyways).
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Sure, but Soto is a top 5 hitter in MLB and would be a great fit for Milwaukee. Take the worst bat out of the Brewers lineup and replace it with one of the best in the game, and their lineup suddenly looks a lot more formidable. Moreover, they would have the ability to in essence "run it back" next year, and again in 2024. 2024 is the end of the road for the current group anyways, if the wheels fall off during the summer of 2024 they can always restock their system when they trade Soto, Woodruff, Burnes before they exit as free agents. As for the talent required to get Soto, rightfully so it will likely be 4-5 really talented minor leaguers. Just remember, the Marlins ended up getting nothing in return for Yelich. That's why they call them "prospects" the 'possibility' they might become a major league player, and keep in mind that the odds are heavily stacked against any of those aforementioned names becoming a Top 5 player like Juan Soto. I also don't think the Nationals will try to package Patrick Corbin with Soto, it would kill the amount of talent coming back to them, and defeat the purpose of trading Soto while he has years of team control remaining. All that being said, I don't think the Brewers will trade for Soto, but I would hope prospect love is not the reason stopping them from adding one of the game's superstars for the next 2.5 seasons.
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Right, Jorge Lopez is definitely breaking out this year, but it's been 4 seasons since the Brewers traded him, he's now 29 and went to Baltimore from KC in 2020 on a waiver claim. With two years of team control left after '22, I don't think Baltimore is actively shopping him. -
Right, Jorge Lopez is definitely breaking out this year, but it's been 4 seasons since the Brewers traded him, he's now 29 and went to Baltimore from KC in 2020 on a waiver claim. With two years of team control left after '22, I don't think Baltimore is actively shopping him.
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Who was the best player the Brewers have traded at the deadline under this front office group? Ryan Cordell (Swarzak) Tayler Schott (Jeremy Jeffress) Jorge Lopez (Moustakas) Brett Phillips (Moustakas) Jean Carmona (Schoop) Luis Ortiz (Schoop) Kodi Medeiros (Soria) Wilber Perez (Soria) Cody Ponce (Jordan Lyles) Jesus Aguilar (Jake Faria) Maurcio Dubon (Ray Black & Pomeranz) Alberto Ciprian (Escobar) Cooper Hummel (Escobar) Reese Olson (Norris) Payton Henry (Jon Curtiss). Take your pick between Phillips, Lopez, Aguilar as the best of the bunch. All three of them had major league experience, and none of them made much impact with the teams that acquired them from Milwaukee. Further Aguilar is different too as he was already a 29 and a former All-Star when he was traded. I wouldn't anticipate anyone amongst the Brewers "best" prospects being traded this week. Maybe the former "pedigree" guys like Tristen Lutz, Micha Bello and Corey Ray, and later round draft picks who have been successful in the lower levels: Justin Jarvis, Tristan Peters, etc. That seems to be their history anyways.
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Who was the best player the Brewers have traded at the deadline under this front office group? Ryan Cordell (Swarzak) Tayler Schott (Jeremy Jeffress) Jorge Lopez (Moustakas) Brett Phillips (Moustakas) Jean Carmona (Schoop) Luis Ortiz (Schoop) Kodi Medeiros (Soria) Wilber Perez (Soria) Cody Ponce (Jordan Lyles) Jesus Aguilar (Jake Faria) Maurcio Dubon (Ray Black & Pomeranz) Alberto Ciprian (Escobar) Cooper Hummel (Escobar) Reese Olson (Norris) Payton Henry (Jon Curtiss). Take your pick between Phillips, Lopez, Aguilar as the best of the bunch. All three of them had major league experience, and none of them made much impact with the teams that acquired them from Milwaukee. Further Aguilar is different too as he was already a 29 and a former All-Star when he was traded. I wouldn't anticipate anyone amongst the Brewers "best" prospects being traded this week. Maybe the former "pedigree" guys like Tristen Lutz, Micha Bello and Corey Ray, and later round draft picks who have been successful in the lower levels: Justin Jarvis, Tristan Peters, etc. That seems to be their history anyways.
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The problem is with expanded playoffs, there are fewer teams "out of it" and some of the teams that are buried this year, are not necessarily looking to tear down as much as tweak the roster to compete next year: Detroit, Texas, LAA et al. Therefore, players like Benintendi are the best amongst those who certainly will be traded in the next week. I'm not so sure how well of a match the Brewers are with Benintendi, he doesn't hit for much power, and his offensive numbers appear mostly to be driven by a high BaBiP of .365. The real question is would the offensive upgrade with Benintendi likely exceed the defensive downgrade of moving McCutchen or Renfroe to CF.
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Obviously the players don’t really care or they would have chosen to get vaccinated, so I still don’t understand the “unforced error” here? I think the “unforced error” comment is really just throwing a dig at their vaccination status, which at this point in time, who cares anymore what athletes are vaxxed and not. I can guarantee you I’m not going to get Covid from either Goldschmidt or Arenado.
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I guess my point is: is it an unforced error? Certainly the Cardinals know their schedule before the season starts and who is unvaccinated. Every team that goes to Toronto has players who stay in the US. I’m sure the Brewers would be no different.
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Who exactly feels bad in this situation? Players have known since before the season began they have to be vaccinated or quarantine upon arrival in Canada. The Cardinals certainly know who their vaccinated employees are. Moreover, the Cards beat writers being in the clubhouse have likely known since spring training which players are vaccinated and who isn’t. Maybe some kids are heartbroken realizing not all pro athletes are great humans and team first guys, otherwise who cares?
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As a pitcher who was a later round pick and ticketed to the majors, he probably is happy to get some guaranteed cash up front. Brewers probably eek out an extra year of control and if he develops into a top of the rotation pitcher might have gotten a great deal.
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I don’t think the Brewers would be looking to add the kind of payroll necessary to get a player like Bellinger ($17 million). Moreover, I don’t think the Dodgers would have any interest in Hiura. They’re set at 2nd, LF and DH.
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There are exceptions to every rule which may be the case with the Rays, however its not really apples to apples. After breaking up the Zobrist, David Price et al. teams in 2013 they did go through four seasons of losing baseball before the rise of the current group of players. As for the A's their sell-off involves larger issues than just the team. They are attempting to pressure the City of Oakland to cut red tape for a new stadium and/or provide public financing for a new stadium this year. Running out a perennial playoff team while arguing their current stadium makes it impossible for them to compete does create an interesting juxtaposition. The main issue is with the statement: "If things are done right, I think we'd have as much a chance in the playoffs in 2024 if we trade guys as we would if we try to hold onto everyone we can afford.." This just isn't true in today's game. Can't miss, major league ready prospects simply are not traded any more. The best the Brewers would be looking at is a package of AA and A ball players from another team, or maybe major league ready players like Nick Madrigal (a former high draft pick who has been a disappointment in limited playing time) neither of which will keep the ship afloat in the short run. There's a rebuild coming to some degree no matter what. The question is would you rather not ever lose 90+ games but at the same time not be a serious contender, or alternatively have a chance to win a pennant but then lose a pile of games for multiple seasons.
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I guess my point is: there is no way to trade Hader, Woodruff, Burnes or anyone else and have continued success (assuming we are defining continued success as being a favorite to win their division and play in the postseason). In today's league, any trade involving their star pitchers, is not likely going to yield major league ready blue chippers who will immediately step in an maintain (or increase) the overall talent level of the club. Thus, trading any one of Milwaukee's star pitchers most likely ends the current cycle of "continued success". The easiest course, and therefore most likely course, in the future is to cut corners elsewhere on the roster in order to keep the star pitchers they have together as long as possible.
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2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Jopal78 replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Ahem... Antoine Williamson (#4 overall); perhaps even Ken Henderson who they took #5 overall in 1991. The Brewers passed over Manny Ramirez, Shawn Green, Doug Glanville, and Cliff Floyd to select Henderson then failed to get him signed. -
The Brewers are a team that despite all their faults they’re in first place and have been nearly all season. Anything can happen in the 2nd part of the season, however if they finish in first place they’re not going to break up their team because of “costs”. Let’s be honest there is no way to trade Woodruff, Hader, Burnes etc, and yet improve the team in the short run. The Brewers don’t have a bunch of killers breaking down the door to the major leagues. They trade Woodruff a player like Alexander goes from being a injury fill in to being counted on to give them 30 starts. Sure Williams would step into the closer role if Hader left but everyone else in the bullpen takes a step forward too and suddenly they’re relying on a Trevor Kelley type to give them 60 innings out of the pen. If they’re not a first place club, the paradigm changes but they’re not going to break up the best run the team has had in 50 years over money or fear of losing players to free agency. It’s not only bad for the product on the field, but it would be terrible for their brand as well.
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Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
Jopal78 replied to Roderick's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Not to take the train completely off the tracks, but every player is available at the right price. I would imagine every team listens to offers on every player they have. That's why you always here the GM speak in the media, "We're not inclined to trade X at this time". I'm sure the Brewers have talks about Hader (and Burnes, Woodruff etc.) all the time. But obviously, given those players importance to the club, it would be very hard for someone to hit "the right price" in trade talks. -
The difference being, Goldschmidt, Holliday and Rolen signed extensions after being acquired by St. Louis, Arenado came to St. Louis already under a big long-term contract. If Soto already turned down 14yr/440 million dollars from Washington, it's a safe bet he doesn't sign an extension no matter who he plays for which makes him different than the others mentioned. Also, St. Louis doesn't really have a history of trading away their best minor league talent, which is why they are able to have 2 of the Top 20 highest paid players on their roster while their overall payroll remains middle of the pack amongst the 30 teams and be competitive.
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2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Jopal78 replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
The last players the Brewers took 15 or later who saw significant time in the majors: Grisham, Lawrie, Odorizzi, Jeffress. Grisham was drafted 7 years ago now and the others over a decade ago.
