Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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What age group is that? Nelly and Shaquille O’Neal are both over 50 years old and haven’t been relevant musically in years if ever. What do you really expect for a post-game concert that’s free for those who bought tickets to a game?
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Mistake about what? Protecting a 25 year old relief pitcher who’s never played in the majors? I’ve always conceded the fact Smith could make it, but the indisputable reality is the probabilities of him doing so aren’t great. Next, people can throw out metrics all they want, but reality is if Smith was anything why haven’t the pundits who write for a living acknowledged it? On MLB Pipeline Smith is not ranked as one of the Sox’s Top 25 prospects, Keith Law doesn’t have him amongst his Top 20 on the Sox, yet more than one poster here has clamored that Smith is one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. Somebody has to be wrong….. . As for Milwaukee they’ve got relievers coming out their ears. It’s simply not a spot they’re going to invest an extra 40 man roster spot right now, especially when there’s fair odds Smith gets returned to them anyhow before the end of 2025.
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I don’t much care what a player’s metrics are. The data can be filtered to support any argument one wishes to make. You leave out Smith is a reliever/swingman. If he was a bonus baby as you suggest and pitched as a swingman/reliever in the minors, he’d already be considered a disappointment not the #1 prospect. Sheesh. There’s a reason the Brewers didn’t add him to the 40 man roster. He’s got arm talent but he’s too inexperienced to predict where he winds up in the future, and 40 man spots in Milwaukee are at a premium. Equally important there’s a significant chance he is returned to the Brewers organization anyways. For the 2024 season, 11 pitchers were taken in the Rule 5 draft and 7 were returned to their original organization. For the 2023 season 13 pitchers were selected in the Rule 5 draft and 9 were returned. Over the last two years the odds of any random Rule 5 pitcher sticking in the big leagues are about 33%.
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One of the best pitchers in the minor leagues? Be serious. Smith wasn’t even the best in his own organization last year. He’s not even in the White Sox’s Top 25 prospects, and he’s a swing man/reliever. One of the best pitchers in the minor leagues, ha! Your anecdotal evidence about Erceg also omits he was a position player (3B) in the Brewers organization for YEARS before turning to pitching. Plus, Erceg was never on the 40 man roster and was Rule 5 eligible in 2021 and 2022 and went unselected. It’s a straw man argument and not a particularly good one
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You’re right, if the leash is in fact long. Can a pitcher who hasn’t pitched all that much since high school make the jump from AA to the majors? Even the lowly White Sox won’t keep someone around who can’t perform at the major league level.
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Like I said, time will tell. My guess is a 25 year old man with under 200 total innings pitched since he finished high school won’t be able to keep pace in the major leagues, but it will be a great story if he does
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Of course it is. Just like your opinion he’s a “stud” or was a mistake to leave him unprotected. I do know that Gus Varland had twice as much experience at the same age as Smith, and Varland flopped as a Rule 5. Like I said, maybe Smith has enough sheer talent to get by on a club that was historically bad last year, but the track record for inexperienced Rule 5 pitchers sticking in the big leagues an entire year isn’t great.
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And how many teams are gonna burn a 40 man roster spot on a 25 year old relief pitcher/swing man with less than 200 total innings pitched across seven years? Unless that team has a 40 man roster devoid of talent, not many. Maybe Shane Smith is the second coming of Christy Mathewson, but I kind of doubt it, and believe his rawness/inexperience will get exposed once the game start to count and therefore a decent possibility exists he returns to the Brewers organization.
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Funny, he was an undrafted free agent. He was unprotected because he has less than a full season of innings total since finishing high school 7 years ago. Maybe the White Sox stash him all year because they’re terrible but they won’t if he’s simply not ready for prime time.
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Smith is soon to be 25 and has pitched less than 170 innings total since high school. Unless he’s some sort of pitching savant my guess is his inexperience will catch up to him in the majors when the games count and wouldn’t be surprised if he finds his way back to the Brewers org at some point as simply being too green.
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Then again that’s my point. Voit was a non-roster invitee. When he opted out of the minor league deal, the Brewers gave him a guarantee and he broke camp with the team. you might be 100% right and Alexander doesn’t finish May with the Brewers, but the odds of him breaking camp with Milwaukee are close to 100%
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Nope. It’s a million dollar guarantee. If they cut him and another team signs him for the mandatory minimum, the Brewers obligation would be reduced to the difference between that mandatory minimum and $1 million. But it’s $1 million guaranteed if he makes the team or not.
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I don’t think it’s a Dr. Evil moment. The Brewers act with intent, meaning there is a reason they gave Alexander a 40 man roster spot and a million dollar guarantee. If they wanted to take a flyer on a depth piece they would have done what they did with Canha and Margot and wait him out with an NRI on the table. They gave Alexander the guarantee because they want him on their big league club in 2025. Absent a complete and total implosion on the field; he’ll head north with them in a couple weeks.
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Alexander has more than 5 years of service time, he can refuse being optioned. He gets the million dollars either way. Thus if the Brewers try to option him, why wouldn’t he refuse force his release to try to catch a major league deal somewhere else all while collecting the million dollars. So you’re right, anything is possible. But if you can find an example where the Brewers gave a veteran a million dollar guarantee then cut them in spring training; I’d love to see it.
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Tyler Alexander has a major league deal and no options. The Brewers wouldn’t take a million dollar flyer on a pitcher and DFA him at the end of camp, so Alexander is almost certainly on the team.
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Sure neither Payamps or Perkins is that 26th or 27th best player where their spot on the 40 man roster is in immediate peril. But let’s be honest, Payamps and Perkins are a prolonged slump during the season away from becoming DFA worthy. Look no further than Hoby Milner. He was terrific for the Brewers until he pitched 12 really poor innings during the ‘24 season, and got himself non-tendered as an arbitration eligible player. Baseball can be a harsh mistress for bench players and middle relievers. -
It certainly is a weird turn of events where Frankie Montas gets 34 million guaranteed for 2 seasons, Andrew Heaney gets 5.5 million from the Pirates, and the best Quintana could apparently do was a 4.5 million guarantee from Milwaukee. Montas might be the baby of the bunch at 31, but other than that it’s hard to argue that Quintana is not the best of those three SPs.
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Starting pitchers always have trade value. It might not be much, but if the season blows up in their face, they’ll be able to trade all four of those players if healthy.
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Nope, I meant what I wrote; there are four: Woodruff Cortes Civale Quintana
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Pretty interesting they have four SP heading into free agency after ‘25. If they fail to keep pace at least they will have an infusion of young talent coming in July 31st.
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All-Time Brewers team that were never All Stars
Jopal78 replied to JackNicholson1974's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Don’t forget Brady Clark .360 career OBP as a Brewer, and Mike Fetters -
Dunn starting at 3B….Are you cool with it?
Jopal78 replied to Scooterfletcher's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Gyorko had a club option with Milwaukee for ‘21 which the Brewers declined. After that he moved back to West Virginia and got into coaching and is currently on staff with the University of West Virginia baseball team. As for Oliver Dunn, I’m sure the Brewers will have Durbin in the mix at 3rd. The only other real player Dunn has to compete with at 3B is Capra who is out of options. If the Brewers don’t want to risk losing Capra on waivers he will at least start the year in the rotation at 3B with either Durbin or Dunn at AAA -
Level Two Experience - Where would you go?
Jopal78 replied to GreatNWwi's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There’s only about 5 stadiums that are truly worth seeing. Fenway, Camden Yards, Dodger Stadium, Oracle Park, and Wrigley Field. Phillies, Target Field, Tigers, D’Backs, Rockies, Cleveland. Reds. Mets, Sea, etc. They’re all okay venues to watch a game but the stadiums themselves aren’t particularly interesting. If you want to see a Brewers road game, almost any stadium is good as the next; but if you want to soak up energy, vibe, history, while watching a game go with one of the first 5. -
It wasn’t like they blundered making a trade. Arenado demanded to be traded and had full no trade protection. So in reality the Rockies had zero leverage. They essentially had to ship Arenado to a team of his choosing for the acquiring team’s last best offer. The Rockies are such a weird franchise. They’re doomed almost every year because nobody can pitch there. They’ve lost 87 or more games every season since 2018, yet they still outdrew the Brewers in attendance in 2025 so the fan base sticks with them despite a terrible Product on the field
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This is how it always works doesn’t it? Brewers have NRI on the table to players, while the player looks for a guarantee. With campS open players will start making decisions. Can’t go wrong with a veteran player on an NRI. I hope they bring in even more
