Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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Once you realize 97% of pro baseball players (and their agents) do not care where they ply their trade, as long as the money is right, none of this matters. Fans might be dumb and refuse to believe, but every MLB player who stacks success at a young age like Hader, likely has the date they can file for free agency circled on their calendar. Obviously the one exception is some Latin players who signed as teenagers for Pennies on the dollar compared to what top draft picks born in America get. The simple truth is Hader plays a game for money, and his career as a player will most assuredly be over in ten years or less. He’d be foolish to not try to secure as much guaranteed money as he can while he has incredible earning capacity.
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Wouldn’t Garrett Mitchell have to stay healthy for a season before he has any real trade value? The most games he’s ever played in a season as a pro is 68. No team is going to trade much if anything for a player who so far has been injured most of the time as a pro.
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Don’t let the facts get in the way, Brebbia had a 0.2 WAR and spent half the year injured-facts-. I don’t have an opinion if Junis is a good signing or not for the Brewers, I do know, however, that in 2023 if you’re shopping for free agents for 3-4 million or less per season you’re shopping in the junk bin where most players are in their late 30s, or coming off injuries or just had bad seasons. I think you know that too but want to ignore it in order to double down on a point (you don’t like Junis/Junis sucks) that’s subjective,
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The same Brebbia who missed 2.5 months with a lat strain and barely had a positive WAR 0.2. 37 year old Kirby Yates who has pitched 71 innings total the last four years, or 38 year old Ottavino. I get it you don’t like Junis but your examples of old, injured and ineffective pitchers is arguing against your point.
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Look around the league since the latest CBA went into effect I think you’ll be surprised at what a 3-4 million dollar or less guarantee gets you: Luke Weaver, Jorge Lopez, Carlos Carrasco guys coming of 6.00 era seasons. Rowdy Tellez, Kevin Pillar, Joey Wendle, Nick Senzel guys who had negative or Zero WAR in ‘23. Even ancient players like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen are getting 5 million dollar guarantees. Maybe you’re right and Junis isn’t worth 7 million dollars, but that’s certainly the going rate for the type of pitcher he profiles as (back end starter, swingman), and I’m not sure who you can realistically expect them to get for the same or similar dollars that makes more of a difference.
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I’d be surprised if they truly have Junis in the rotation, and not the swingman it would be playing against his strengths. As for the salary, 7 million dollars is nothing in today’s game. You can’t get a SP, high leverage reliever of quality position player for that kind of money. You get exactly the Junis type of player: mediocre career numbers coming off a decent season.
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Brewers sign Gary Sanchez (Deal Official, $3M plus Incentives)
Jopal78 replied to Vgmastr's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Players go where the money is. I’m sure Martinez (and Soler) are holding out for multi-year deals. If/when they decide they’ll accept a one year contract they will have no lack of suitors. Given the Brewers M.O. to be active in free agency late with one year guarantees, I’d bet they have open offers to both Martinez and Soler. It’s somewhat out of character for Milwaukee to hand out a major league deal to Haase and now sign Sanchez. Gary is not really the kind of guy you want to DH every day, and if he’s going to play some catcher than there’s no need to carry Haase on the 26 man at all, and it’s essentially eating a million dollars . -
$7 million dollars, market rate?? Like most recent Brewer free agent signings it’s actually a cut rate deal ( especially being able to split that 7 million dollars across two seasons with use of a buyout on a mutual option). You can’t sign a free agent starting pitcher for much less than 10 million dollars. Then relievers with starting experience like Matt Moore, Joe Kelly, and Martin Perez are all making 8 million or more in 2024. Grandal and Hoskins aside, this is the same song and dance the Brewers do every late January/early February: sign some established veteran free agents who are willing to take bargain rate one year guarantees.
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Which is my point; Junis may have some real value as a multi-inning reliever swingman. As a 5th starter he’d likely be below average guy you hope makes it through 4-5 innings. With Gasser, Hall, Ashby, and the other younger arms they have, it seems in the long run they’d be better off seasoning those guys than having Junis soak up 4 innings every 5th day.
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But Houser 42 of Houser’s 45 appearances in that time frame were starts. Only 21 of 63 appearances were starts for Junis. The last time Junis was used as more than an opener (2022) his era as a starter was nearing 5.00 Probably earmarked as the swingman on the ‘24 team in the vein of Jason Alexander or Aaron Ashby. I sure hope they would stick with their young arms at the back of the rotation than rolling with Junis.
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That doesn’t make a lot of sense. If Hoskins plays well in ‘24, it means he’s opting out. That’s why Boras coined the term “pillow contract”. If he doesn’t play well, this discussion becomes a moot point because the Brewers won’t be able to trade him anyway. Catastrophic injuries for non-pitchers do not happen very often; assuming he plays well in ‘24, I doubt the risk of another catastrophic injury figures significantly in the calculus if he ultimately becomes available in trade.
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Hmmmm, one MLB team has a recent track record of trading key performers at the deadline despite being a contender, and they have dropped pitchers who started a combined 84 games for them last year, so there is definitely some unpredictability in the Brewers front office so I wouldn’t rule it out completely. But yeah, you’d think it unlikely which is why I put “or he opts out”
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Folks want to be Tampa Bay, yet when the Brewers shuffle the deck like the Rays there’s anger and frustration. They were always going to trade Burnes, despite their “bites the Apple talk”. The awkward timing of it just means the front office figured this package from Baltimore was the best they were going to do. The Hoskins signing is smart despite what happens with Burnes. If he plays well, they trade him at the deadline, or he opts out, declines their QO and they get a pick in ‘25. Even if he struggles, he’s a vet with a good reputation league wide to hold down the fort with Yelich while they break in young players across their lineup
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I’d mention Juan Soto, while merely a rental, is on a hall of fame track with his production, Burnes, meanwhile, is a very good starting pitcher but wouldn’t be on anyone’s Hall of Fame watch list right now. Finally, the days of getting a young John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander or a young Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon are over. Even the most aggressive teams don’t trade their best blue chippers for veterans anymore.
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That’s a huge IF though, even in a loaded draft class it’s a crapshoot after the first 15-20 picks. Further, the Brewers have made a lot of selections, supplemental or otherwise, near the back of the first round with pretty underwhelming results. Jake Odorizzi (#32 in ‘08) Mitch Haniger (#38 in ‘12) being the best of the bunch, though neither ever played for the Brewers. Evan Fredrickson was #35 overall in ‘08, Kentrail Davis #39 in ‘09, Henry Gatewood #41 in ‘14, Nathan Kirby #40 in ‘15 and Tristen Lutz was #34 overall in ‘17; none of them saw major league action. Ethan Small was #28 in ‘19 and just got DFA’d. I’m not knocking the trade, but really it’s two players and an extra roll of the dice for Corbin Burnes.
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Maybe they use their new surplus money to sign as many vets as they can to one year deals: Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu ,JD Martinez, etc. Make the talent drop off somewhat less.
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…Justin Turner… DH, but play a little 1B, 3B maybe even a taste of 2B in a pinch like last year
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Doesn’t it feel like it’s going to be announced Justin Turner is coming to Milwaukee on a one year deal? Like Hoskins, not a lot of buzz as a free agent, has some question marks (age, declining skills) but was still terrific last year, and would fill a need DH/3B
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What’s not to like signing a veteran to a minor league deal? He shows them something and makes the team, or he goes to AAA/exercises his opt out.
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The Brewers would have to release Junk for him to be able to go play in Japan, so I think the answer to your question is no. Interestingly, if Junk is seeking opportunities in Japan it tells me he already has the go-ahead from the Brewers to try to find a situation that would advance his career more than remaining in the Brewers organization.
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I doubt the owner’s involvement extends to dictating actual personnel moves. I don’t think Brewers would have been able to achieve what they have in the last 20 years with that degree of meddling and NOT have it been reported on.
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MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
Jopal78 replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It is irrelevant what I think, I don’t own a team or have a say. Obviously, the large market clubs like things the way they are, so if your team is not one of the big dogs you have no choice but to hope for miracles, or follow one of the big dogs. -
MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
Jopal78 replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Of course it’s not fair; the owners of the large market clubs could always offer to split their local broadcast revenue, but if you’re the Chairman of the Board of the New York Yankees it is probably viewed as a good thing that a third of the teams you’re competing against for the pennant do not have a realistic shot at winning it because you keep all that broadcast revenue for yourself. Then again that’s also one of the beautiful things about baseball, the teams with a roster of players collectively being paid 275 million dollars or more do not always finish ahead of the team with the 100 million dollar payroll which in turn makes those clubs (outside of NYY and LAD) volatile and constantly hitting the reset button. -
Tyrone Taylor while a sentimental favorite is really just a guy (can play all three spots with a little power an no on base skills). Trayce Thompson has nearly an identical career stat line and bounces from club to club on minor league deals, yet Taylor is set to make triple that amount. Sure it was a salary dump, but a smart one for a player who was owed more than market rate for his skill set. Houser is a useful major league pitcher, but in ‘23 he failed to pitch five innings in his starts more often than he made it to the sixth inning. Another player who is kind of pricey for what his skill set brings to the table. Below average starting pitcher or long relief.
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Deferred money or not, it’s all real dollars and the Dodgers’ folly. Despite extreme financial clout they haven’t a won a full season championship since Ronald Reagan was President. The Yankees weren’t the first team to hand out a 100 million dollar contract, a 200 million dollar contract or even a 300 million dollar contract, but they traded for each of those players (Kevin Brown, A-Rod and Stanton) in pursuit of a championship and have one title to show for it in the last 23 years. Point being, it’s very rare that the team making these mega deals doesn’t regret it soon after the ink is dry. Which isn’t to say Ohtani isn’t worth it given the non-performance based revenue he will generate, just from a team on the field perspective I bet the Dodgers regret it before his contract is half over
