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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    I get that Mitchell was a first round pick, and the Brewers have plenty of OF options. But Mitchell hasn’t been able to stay healthy since turning pro, not to mention a diabetic. If you can’t count on him to be healthy, what’s he really worth in a trade?
  2. Jopal78
    Just restate the conclusion and say there’s no arguing against it, quality post.
  3. Jopal78
    Yep,Giolito serves as a reminder on prospect hype. When he debuted he was MLB’s #3 prospect. Baseball Prospectus had him #3 and Baseball America had him #5,
  4. Jopal78
    That’s a bold statement I don’t even think either of those two are the worst run in baseball (Athletics) let alone sports. There was a thread on this over the off season. Arte Moreno maybe is too patient keeping Scioscia around for too long. Outside of Trout, the GMs he hired haven’t done well enough developing players from within, they’re certainly not along in that regard. And like most big money clubs they’ve had their share of high priced free agents flops. Yet to their credit, the Angels haven’t finished last in their Division since 1999, they have lost 90 games or more just twice in the last 24 seasons. (By comparison in the same span the Brewers have had three last place finishes and 5 seasons with 90 or more losses, the Mets have had two last place finishes and lost 90 or more games four times). Because the floor is higher yet the ceiling has been lower, does that make them a poorly run team?
  5. Jopal78
    … or maybe because of expanded playoffs and a couple weak divisions there’s only about 8-9 teams really looking to trade off their veterans so it’s a seller’s market. According to MLB, Edgar Quero was #65 (the Brewers Quero is #72), and the Angels had to include another player with potential to net a good but not great starting rental pitcher and a middle reliever. Now couple that with Matt Arnold‘s comments about “buying responsibly” and “improvement from within” it could very well be a quiet deadline for Milwaukee.
  6. Jopal78
    No team is going to take on that amount of cash for that long AND give value back to Milwaukee for Yelich so there would be no real reason to trade him. Granted, even if they simply wanted out from underneath Yelich’s contract to have the financial flexibility to deal with the next generation; the risk that none of the young outfielders referenced grow into major leaguers who deserve that kind of commitment or are even interested in forgoing their ultimate free agency is real.
  7. Jopal78
    Laying on the snark while scolding others for it… nice.
  8. Jopal78
    I’m not playing devils advocate, the opposite. It’s as though you pay no attention to how this team actually operates. They have Yelich making a 5th of the payroll. The starting pitching staff takes up an even bigger chunk, and they fill in the roster with rookies, bargain buys, bounce back players, etc. In years when they don’t have the talent to compete they cut payroll pretty close to the bone. Thus, I don’t know why you think they would suddenly deviate from how they’ve gone about roster construction for the last 10 years by suggesting they should go sign a couple of impact free agents. Maybe you just want to be a Cubs fan.
  9. Jopal78
    If it were only that easy. That’s 6 players on the 26 man roster or major league injured list. That 43 million won’t help add any impact players when it’s spread out to cover arbitration raises plus signing players to replace this year’s 1B, 3B, DH, back up Cather and 2 starting pitchers and bench players.
  10. Jopal78
    They wanted to give him one more shot; I am sure it is hard to move on from a former top 10 pick who had a season like Hiura did in 2019.
  11. Jopal78
    I’m not an expert on the CBA, but when they DFA’d Hiura and he went unclaimed, the Brewers outrighted him to AAA. At that point if Hiura reports to AAA he still gets paid. So Hiura’s there to get paid, and for the Brewers since they have to pay him anyway it’s one fewer spot to they need to fill to field a AAA team. Marriage of convenience that will be over in about a month or less.
  12. Jopal78
    You’re right, maybe Counsell and Arnold simply want to get fired and never get another job in baseball so they jerk Hiura around on purpose and blow the owner’s money.
  13. Jopal78
    He’s not worth anything. Any acquiring team would have to pay him a half million bucks (when most sellers are looking to trim payroll) for 8 weeks worth of games. Then he’s either tendered a contract for 3-4 million and carried on the 40 man all winter or he’s cut loose. What exactly do you expect the Brewers to get for that?
  14. Jopal78
    I’m sure they have more information than fans do, there’s something about his game that’s unacceptable to the team and he can’t fix it. If they didn’t like him as a human, they’d just release him.
  15. Jopal78
    I just don’t think he’s in Milwaukee’s plans, period. Their DH goes on the DL they have an open spot on the 40 man roster and they call up somebody else. In a week or so, the math will really be working against Hiura as the Brewers will need two spots for n the 40 man roster for Justin Wilson and Woodruff, eventually an 3rd for Ashby. Plus spots for whomever they acquire at the deadline. Even Hiura’s trade value isn’t much beyond doing him a solid with a change of scenery, because even if he was traded at the deadline, he’d still be owed a half-million dollars in salary by his new team, he would have to go on an acquiring team’s 40 man roster and then after 8 weeks of play his new team would have to decide to tender him a 3-4 million dollar contract and carry him on their 40 man all winter. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hiura finishes out the season in AAA for Milwaukee then leaves as a minor league free agent.
  16. Jopal78
    And Winker makes nearly 10% of the teams payroll. 10 million dollar guys get plenty of chances before being sent packing
  17. Jopal78
    Be careful implying I don’t know what a straw man argument is, the civility police might think you’re making a personal attack calling me dumb. (In fact I do know what it means, and that was a joke -fabled- because 90% of the time it’s tossed into these debates it’s an incorrect application) Anyways, neither Jimenez or Burger will be a Brewer in August, I’ll let you have the final word on the rest.
  18. Jopal78
    Sounds to me like you’re encroaching on the fabled straw man argument, highlighting that folks disagree with me (oh well), in order to obscure the fact the hallowed Baseball Trade Evaluator says you’re wrong about the value of Jake Burger, Tyler Black. I say if you’re wrong about those two, maybe you’re wrong about them all, and you don’t really know any better than anyone of us.
  19. Jopal78
    Hahaha, sure. They drafted Burger 11th overall in ‘17, and he’s been okay hitter and is pre-arbitration eleigible. I’m sure the Sox will just give him away for spare parts. Wait! What does that junk trade evaluator site say?! Black AND Mitchell is only a slight overpay… sacrilege!
  20. Jopal78
    I said, 822 OPs+ which would mean 22% better than league average, or at least that’s how MLB defines that metric, agree or not…. And I haven’t cherry picked any metrics but OPS+. We both know all teams have the DH now, so Jimenez not being a good defender is irrelevant and doesn’t figure into his OPS+ stat I cited anyhow. I will add a contract JD Martinez signed 7! years ago means absolutely nothing because salaries have exploded since then, especially since the signing of the most recent CBA. If you want to believe a hard throwing rookie relief pitcher without demonstrable major league command is close to fair value for an above average 26 year old cost controlled major league hitter even with injury issues go for it.
  21. Jopal78
    So what? Talent costs money, and Trout is nearly twice the player Yelich is. (an 85 career WAR in 5400 games. Yelich is 39 WAR in 5000 games), but his AAV 35.5 million on his contract isn’t twice what Yelich is paid in his (27.4 million AAV). Trout is an absolute bargain when compared to Yelich. In fact, it’s probably a good bet Trout’s production over the next five years outpaces Yelich’s to such an extent that it makes the extra three years worth it.
  22. Jopal78
    Ha, that website is a joke, I don’t really care what it says. (According to that website the Brewers would be getting hosed trading Yelich for Trout straight up). It’s a classic Brewerfan trope to dump on some other team’s players while boosting the value of the organizations own players— but the real inquiry is what it would cost to buy a 26 year old with a career OPS+ of 122 as a free agent. Without a doubt more than 3yrs/49 million. Heck, I don’t think a team could even sign such a player for just three years let alone the AAV. As to the JD Martinez reference, there’s a reason he’s playing on a 1yr/10 million dollar deal— he’s 36 and had a .790 OPS last year. That’s exactly what you get for 10 million dollars in the free agent market— aging players coming off bad seasons. Finally as for Uribe his walks per 9 ratio in the minors was more than 50% higher than Hader and Williams. Like I said, he either figured out his command overnight, or he hasn’t gotten exposed yet in his 4 innings. Time will tell. I do know, he won’t be a late inning reliever walking that many per 9. Exactly what is the value of a middle reliever/long man who walks almost 7 batters per 9? Zilch. That’s what hurts his value.. the risk that he can be a nothing .
  23. Jopal78
    Of course it makes sense. Jimenez is an above average major league hitter under team control through 2026. He has had his share of injuries, but Jimenez isn’t the problem with the White Sox. To trade him suggests they 1.) got blown away by an offer— which certainly is not two stiffs like Hiura and Urias and a relief pitcher. 2.) they’re taking it down to the studs to completely rebuild, which isn’t happening. As for Uribe, I’d encourage you to take off the prospect love glasses. I agree he has an electric arm and you cannot teach triple digit velocity, BUT he had MAJOR command issues in the minor leagues, and has pitched a whopping 4 innings in the majors. Which leaves two possibilities, Uribe magically solved his command issues, or he hasn’t gotten exposed in the majors yet. Maybe he’ll figure it out and be a dominant late inning reliever for years, but a relief pitcher walking nearly 7 batters per 9 won’t cut it in the majors, and nobody at this point knows which outcome is more likely. That means his value simply isn’t as great as you think because there is a ton of risk with him going forward.
  24. Jopal78
    Hitting is hitting. OPS+ is a hitting stat, so there is a relevance issue with your comments about defense. My point is: Jimenez is 26, has been a significantly better hitter than average and is cost controlled for years down the road. Considering that in today’s game even a mediocre free agent hitter costs in the neighborhood of 10 million a season, Jimenez’s contract makes him that much more valuable.
  25. Jopal78
    26 years old, .825 career OPS in 1400 career PAs, under team control through 2026 at an AAV at 15+ million. True he has dealt with injuries, but his career OPS+ is 122, that’s better offensive production than Richie Sexson, Willy Adames and a hair behind Arenado. I would say he has a great deal of value. Yes, I get the White Sox are a moribund team having a particularly bad season. However it does not also mean all their players are low value and they’re looking to do a tear down. The reality is the price it would take for them to move players they don’t have to like Jimenez, Robert etc. would be the type of prospect capital the Brewers simply wouldn’t trade. Impending free agents: Lance Lynn, Grandal, Giolito Reynaldo López, Joe Kelly etc are a different story— they’ll likely move them all for whatever they can get.
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