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Ron Robinsons Beard

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Everything posted by Ron Robinsons Beard

  1. Ron Robinsons Beard
    That's what worries me, along with the hunting opener next weekend. I've seen several posts and memes going around Facebook in the last few days indicating ideas like "you don't know how much time you have left with your loved ones, so don't sacrifice your holidays with them". It makes me want to slap those people upside the head. I mean, I get that family time and tradition is important, but if there was one time where it's prudent to break with tradition, this is the year to do it.
  2. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Nah, Payton isn't going let Jameis lose games that way. Get ready for 37 Kamara check-downs and Taysom Hill running the option 15 times a game. As a Michael Thomas fantasy owner, I'm dreading the gameplans that Payton is going to be putting together when he should be opening up the offense. Payton also isn't going to let Jameis play well enough or look explosive enough to create a QB controversy.
  3. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Well, as it turned out, I guess you should have gone with Gibson and Swift in your backfield, with Dionte Johnson at WR and Godwin or Moore in the flex. Shows what I know LOL. Conner has been a huge disappointment lately, spinning his tires in good matchups. Davis has been a disappointment lately too in what should be a RB1 role. I think moving forward I'd ride Swift. The Lions seem committed to him now as their feature back.
  4. Ron Robinsons Beard
    That isn't my argument, though ... and I don't think it is Peavy's, either. That site's valuations are its valuations. If you want to argue those, that's fine. That is the totally subjective part, and likely an unwinable argument. I don't care that the site "didn't say exactly what I think it should" in regard to valuations because, as you said, those values are subjective. My whole issue is the fact that they retroactively, minutes after the trade was announced, went in and adjusted the values of those players who were dealt, with no justification for doing so other than to make the trade appear more even. That is a textbook example of "moving the goalposts". It's poor optics, plain and simple.
  5. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I think players such as Kirksey, Lowry and Wagner are going to have to see the writing on the wall. They are they types that every team is going to be looking to jettison come March, and will be looking at vet minimum-type deals. I have a really tough time seeing King break the bank, too. I know he plays a premium position, but that injury history is going to scare off a lot of other teams. I could see the packers re-signing him to a modest deal, with the idea that if you get him for 10+ games a season, you are playing with house money. i actually feel pretty good about the depth the team has at CB with Sullivan, Jackson and even Hollman, and they have proven that they can weather the storm without King if needed. I think P. Smith is probably gone, as they have a ready-made replacement for him on the roster with Gary, with a developmental guy in Garvin who has flashed enough to deserve a bigger look. Linsley is probably gone as well, as Lucas Patrick is a ready-made replacement there (with Runyan stepping into Patrick's G role). There is no way they let Jones walk for a compensatory 3rd, though, IMO. Either they get an extension done with him before the end of this season, or they tag and trade him for a 1st rounder.
  6. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Reading between the lines with what Gute said during his presser yesterday, he's expecting a flurry of cuts in March as teams are desperate to get under the adjusted cap, and he expects the Packers to have the financial flexibility to take advantage of that buyers market.
  7. Ron Robinsons Beard
    The "as time goes by" portion of your argument is null and void, though. The trade values site certainly didn't foresee Grisham's and Davies' strong 2020 seasons judging by their valuations of both players, especially before the trade. Even if the site's justification in changing the values was to essentially "right a wrong", the optics of the timing were simply terrible. Since then, in essence, the "wrong" has been "righted" with the justified change in those players values after their 2020 performance. If you go in and do a "trade back", Davies/Grisham are now nearly double the surplus value of Urias/Lauer. I think the crux of the issue is that the trade value site seems slow to update values on minor league players who "break out" in a quick fashion, such as what Grisham did, while they are also slow to lower the values on highly thought-of Top 100 guys like Urias when they don't live up to that advanced billing early on. They certainly didn't need to go in to their system the day of the trade and raise the value of the guys the Brewers traded off, though, while lowering the value of the guys the Brewers got back. At that time, those players did nothing to justify the value adjustments.
  8. Ron Robinsons Beard
    The changing of the grades was explained in detail on this very forum and had zero to do with saving face or making the trade look better or anything like that. You literally said "rather than take the L and admit they didn't have the players valued correctly, they went in and changed them after the fact." Um, isn't changing them an admission that they did in fact have them wrong? If they knew they were wrong, why on earth would they stubbornly keep the same valuation? It's not like the player valuations just ended after the trade. They didn't value them "retroactively." Their trade value estimate changed based on the market. If Kelley Blue Book says your car is worth $15K and one thousand cars of your type sell for $13K, the valuation will change because that is the price they are going for. It makes perfect sense that player values would be adjusted because of what the real trade market says they are worth and it doesn't have anything to do trying to make themselves look better. The trade value site is a nice tool for those who take it for what it is, a best guess current estimate based on the knowledge they have, and don't expect it to be valuation gospel. I'd trust/respect them less if they didn't change their estimate based on some macho need to avoid "taking the L." So, by your logic, it appears you don't believe one team can come out way ahead of another team value-wise when making a deal? In my opinion, that's what the site should have done.
  9. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I'd go Conner and Davis at RB, and Chark at WR (even with the bad weather expected tomorrow, the Packers likely won't have Alexander, and the Jags will be chasing points). Toss a coin between Swift and Gibson at the flex spot.
  10. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I fully expect them to eventually throw practice squad guy Dominique Dafney into that spot. He's another who is cut in the same mold as Deguara and Lovett. Perhaps a little more athletic, though.
  11. Ron Robinsons Beard
    It is also quite obvious that the trade value site is terrible. When you go in retroactively and revalue players following a trade, as they did with last year's Urias/Lauer for Grisham/Davies swap, you lose all credibility, with me at least. Rather than take the L and admit they didn't have the players valued correctly, they went in and changed them after the fact, in order to make the trades look more even. That's a major no-no in my book, and it is hard to take anything they have seriously now.
  12. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Just finished up Ted Lasso last night. If one could have elected a fictitious television character to serve as president in last week's election, Mr. Lasso would have won in a landslide. "I wrote it on a back of a take-out menu, but I signed it, so it's legit!" - classic!
  13. Ron Robinsons Beard
    It seems like a rather huge assumption to say that Grisham and Davies would have had the same WAR with the 2020 Brewers that they had with the 2020 Padres. Also, as pointed out in my post above, I think it is obvious that this deal was not made with 2020, and only 202, in mind. But then, you know that.
  14. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Is it possible to be simultaneously happy for Trent, and also optimistic/hopeful that Urias and Lauer turn out to be quality contributors for the Brewers? I'm having trouble seeing what the end goal is to your argument here. Did Grisham have a nice season? Yes. Could the Brewers have used him in 2020, especially considering Cain's opt-out? Yes. Did Urias show flashes in 2020 of perhaps being a valuable contributor in the future? Yes. Has Eric lauer had past Major League success that points to the possibility, if not probability, that he will valuable future contributor? Yes. is it possible that we look back at this deal 4-5 years from now and see that the Brewers got fleeced? Yes. Is it possible that we look back after that same time period and see that the Brewers fleeced the Padres. Also yes. I will admit that the optics of this deal are not exactly stellar on the Brewers' end currently. But this deal wasn't a "win now" deal when it was made, and it still isn't a "win now" deal. It's quite possible that both teams will benefit from this deal. It is also possible that all four of these players either put up middling results or end up washing out in a few years. I think the best thing we can say right now is "Grisham looks like the best player currently, but we'll see."
  15. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I am actually somewhat miffed that the Department of Health felt the need to say, basically, "A mask is not a cure-all. It is not advised to go do a mosh pit just because you are wearing one." Are people really that stupid?
  16. Ron Robinsons Beard
    RB is also one of the most fragile positions in the NFL, and as we've seen with Aaron Jones throughout his career, he is not immune to the injury bug. We've seen the RB doomsday scenario play out this year with the 49ers, who are rotating an oft-injured 3rd down back in McKinnon with a practice-squad guy in Hasty because their top guys are all out. I think the Packers brass saw what happened to them against the 49ers last year, and what the 49ers did to pretty much everyone last year with their backfield, and decided that they weren't going to be caught with their pants down in the backfield. I also wouldn't completely write off the idea that Dillon won't make a significant contribution this season. Having 3 NFL-quality backs is a significant advantage, this year especially. I don't necessarily agree with picking Dillon in the 2nd round, but I can understand the thought process for why he was selected. The dots are pretty easy to connect.
  17. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Really not sure how that equates. Using a 2nd on Dillon has far more to do with ensuring a competent backfield in 2021 while Rogers is still QB and the Packers have no money for Jones and possibly Williams. There's a huge difference between using a pick for 8 games and drafting a guy and having him basically sit a year so that he can hit the ground running in year 2. It's a running back. You don't need to take one in the second round and groom him for a year like a QB to ensure a competent future backfield. They're cheap in free agency (except the elite ones) and very often contribute as rookies. One of the most effective workhorses in the NFL is a UDFA RB in Jacksonville. Gibson, Swift, and Moss are also having nice seasons. I'll give you Robinson, who has been a revelation in Jacksonville, but Antonio Gibson was selected by Washington 4 picks after the Packers selected Dillon. D'Andre Swift was selected with the 35th overall pick at the beginning of the 2nd round. Zach Moss was a 3rd round pick. While it is entirely possible to find a competent RB in the later rounds or via free agency, it is certainly not as easy as you are making it out to be, judging by the premium picks used on RBs is the last draft.
  18. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Tampa didn't show up. They looked disjointed and uninterested on offense, and that hyped defense let the Saints march right down the field on every possession. Watch out for that Saints team, though. With Michael Thomas back and healthy, they are truly dangerous.
  19. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I said 11-5 earlier in the thread, with the wiggle room of a game each way. I'll take that wiggle room, and put them at 12-4. I see matchup issues with the Colts and Titans, but they "should" beat their relatively soft remaining schedule outside of those two.
  20. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Weird post. He's had a good game. He's saying Gary is a huge bust because he still doesn't like the pick, and wants to feel justified in not liking it. There are a lot of fans who agree, and IMO, that opinion is pretty insufferable. Gary was out of position a few times, but he also made several key plays in the game, and was around the QB quite a bit. Also had several nice hustle plays. Not sure where people are getting that he didn't play well last night.
  21. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Right. Fuller would have been a nice piece if he stayed healthy. That's a huge if, though. I'm not worried about the offense's ability to move the ball, especially if Lazard can return soon. I'm much more worried about the defense underperforming, and getting into a situation where gameflow dictates trading scores, and coming out on the bottom of a seesaw battle in the playoffs.
  22. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I read somewhere yesterday that of the people who voted, 85% had their minds made up...two years ago. All that money to persuade so few people. Wisconsin was decided by 24,000 votes in 2016, and it's looking like it's going to be a similar margin this time around. Less than a percentage point. Don't underestimate the power that those few people hold.
  23. Ron Robinsons Beard
    They don't get nothing though, they get a comp pick. (3rd or 4th for Fuller probably). But don’t you take the pick for next year rather than 2022? Just never makes sense to me how these teams operate. Yes, you do take the sure thing pick next year. But if the rumors are true and the Packers only went as high as a 4th rounder, I can see why the Texans hung onto him.
  24. Ron Robinsons Beard
    I think Cain will be back this year, mostly because money. He was willing to pass on the 60-game prorated season, but he's not going to say no to a 162 games at his salary. Although I am starting to wonder if the Brewers might be hoping that he does opt out ...
  25. Ron Robinsons Beard
    Not too bad for a guy who many questioned could even stay in CF long term. Good for Trent! He got a raw deal with the way he was treated by many in the fanbase after last year's WC game.
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