Ron Robinsons Beard

Or ... counterpoint ... the Cardinals suck.

Lux has more value than Hader. Woodruff for Lux is closer but I think Lux has a little bit more value than Woodruff. Geez. Lux is a prospect. A good one no doubt, but still a prospect. I disagree wholeheartedly that a player that has proven next to nothing in MLB is worth substantially more than a super young top 3 MLB reliever with multiple years of control, much less a young ace-caliber pitcher with multiple years of control. Lets get real here.

Ray Black is out of options. He's either up full time next year, or he's gone. My guess is he establishes himself as a solid back-end reliever at the MLB level next year.

He does: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html B-R states that he'd be arb-eligible in 2021, which means the 2020-21 offseason (or after next season). Super 2 doesn't mean that the Brewers lose a year of control, but it does mean that Hader gets an extra year of arb salary. B-R obviously didn't foresee the Super 2 number coming in as low as it did.

I totally get that Hader has a lot of value. But to use your football analogy, asking for Bellinger and Lux for Hader would be like the Raiders trading Mack to the Chiefs for Pat Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. That is an absolute crazy, never-gonna-happen ask. Hence the trolling comment. Come up with a realistic trade scenario, because asking for Bellinger, who is the likely MVP and one of the brightest young stars in the game, is 100% not realistic. Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #98: Every man has his price. In theory, every player signed by the Milwaukee Brewers - whether on the major-league roster, the 40-man roster, or signed to the minors (down to the co-op team shared with the Indians in the DSL) has a price at which they would be traded. This is true for every team in major-league baseball. For instance, the Pirates were willing to give us Jordan Lyles for Cody Ponce, a minor-league pitcher the Crew might or might not have put on the 40-man roster this offseason. Stearns, rightly, took the chance for an upgrade for a pitcher who might only see a cup of coffee in the majors. Ponce, when you think of it, was a bargain price for Lyles, who may have put things together as a solid #3 (12-8, 4.15 ERA in 2019) with the potential to at least have an ace-like run (7-1, 2.45 ERA with the Crew in 2019). Now, different people may value players differently. I, for instance, would not have designated Troy Stokes for assignment, and probably would have dropped Tyler Saladino instead. Stearns thought differently, and Stokes is now a Tiger. I think Perez is worth a multi-year deal at about $3 million a year because of his versatility - he not only made 13 pitchers on a 25-man roster work, he was the 14th pitcher. If I'm Stearns, I see if I can't get Perez to the pitching mechanics complex in Arizona just to see if they can't push him up to the equivalent of a viable middle-reliever as opposed to mop-up. For me, the price for Hader is extremely high. The price tag is Bellinger-Lux (plus minor-league players) if the Dodgers were the trade partner. If it's the Padres, it's Mejia, Tatis, and Paddack, although in that case I might toss in Arcia and Burnes. Why? Because there's the five years of control, two of which are dirt-cheap when his performance is considered. Honestly, dealing Hader before he is arby-eligible does not make sense at this time unless the other team is willing to give me major help in several areas. Honestly, I think the time to consider dealing Hader is after 2021, not after this year. Two more years like 2018-2019, and Hader will still bring an outstanding return, and three years of control is still a lot. But for the next two years, I see Hader as virtually untouchable, barring someone like A.J. Preller or Andrew Friedman offering what would amount to a massive overpay. Again, as a Super 2 guy, Hader is looking at a salary of roughly $5 million this year. which will only escalate from here on out. Still cheap for what he provides, but no longer dirt-cheap. If I'm Stearns, I'm not shopping Hader this offseason. But if a team like the Dodgers calls, I'm certainly going to engage. And I'm not going to insult them by asking for their #1 prospect, their Yelich-like superstar player, plus more.

Is this trolling? No... Hader has, if I read B-R correctly, five years of control left, and is not arby-eligible until after the 2021 season, so the first two years are likely to be very cheap for the results. He is arguably the best reliever in the game - certainly one of the top relievers, and in terms of cost over the next five years, probably the best value at relief pitcher in the majors. Chapman as a free agent (IF he opts out) could get $20 million a season. Andrew Miller is fading somewhat, but still gets a lot more than Hader. Those are the two closest comparisons to Hader I can think of, and Hader beats both in price, and arguably in terms of performance. Hader is to relief pitchers what Khalil Mack is to pass rushers. Any trade return ought to reflect that. I totally get that Hader has a lot of value. But to use your football analogy, asking for Bellinger and Lux for Hader would be like the Raiders trading Mack to the Chiefs for Pat Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. That is an absolute crazy, never-gonna-happen ask. Hence the trolling comment. Come up with a realistic trade scenario, because asking for Bellinger, who is the likely MVP and one of the brightest young stars in the game, is 100% not realistic. Also, as a Super 2 guy, Hader is arby eligible this offseason.

The problem is Joe Kelly has been a 1-inning guy. He should have never been brought out for that second inning of work, regardless of where his pitch count stood. Kelly worked more than an inning 7 times this year by my count and was not bad in doing it. He also breezed through his first inning of work so pitch count wasn't an issue, which I know you acknowledged, but maybe Roberts thought that Kelly was his best guy left and wanted him to pitch to Rendon/Kendrick (he got to walk Soto). I am not totally against your idea, though...I especially might've taken him out of there once he got into trouble Only three appearances of more than an inning since the end of June. It had been since Aug. 24, so a month and a half, since he pitched more than an inning in an outing. I mean, I get that he was throwing well, but that was a chance that didn't need to happen. The fact that Roberts didn't go to Jansen to start that inning is really telling.

The problem is Joe Kelly has been a 1-inning guy. He should have never been brought out for that second inning of work, regardless of where his pitch count stood.

That's a good point. That team is run incredibly smartly. But at the same time, it's an easy argument to say that the bullpen is also the Achilles Heel of a Dodgers super team that is set up to compete for titles for the next 4-5 seasons at least. I'm thinking there will be a huge amount of pressure on that front office to get that team a championship after annually falling short for so long. There were some indications that they were close to pulling the trigger on a Vasquez deal at the deadline (apparently the Pirates were adamant that Lux came back), and there is certainly an argument that Hader may very well hold even more value than Vasquez did at the time.

That may be the case. It is such an obscure rule that hardly ever comes up. Hard to blame Lafleur for not knowing it. Also, telling Jones he could lose his TD has a little more of a fear factor than being assessed 15 yards on the extra point or kickoff.

I thought that they *can* bring back a touchdown if taunting occurs before the endzone. Almost never happens but l thought I remember examples of it occurring. I'll have to try to look that up. I just looked. Apparently it was discussed in 2013, but I can't find anything saying it was implemented. I know they changed the rule in college in 2012 saying that a TD could be brought back if the scoring team taunted before the score.

It was before he scored. I think they could have thrown it for unsportsmanlike, given them a 15-yard penalty and made them replay the down. It would have been different had he already scored.

Depends on the value they put on Hader. I don't think there has been a reliever dealt with his type of value since the Yankees basically rebuilt their farm system by dealing off Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.

That's pretty much the exact type of package I think it's going to take to pry Hader away from Milwaukee. That's a couple surefire blue chip prospects. Lux is MLB ready and there's a strong chance that Gray will be sometime in 2020. It would be interesting to find out if the Dodgers value Lux and Seager the same way. I'd be stoked to have either one of those guys.

Well, Bellinger was pretty bad in September. Might be a good "buy-low" opportunity.

Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me. This year, Davies was basically a 2 pitch pitcher. For me, sinker/cutter and changeup are basically 2 pitches...sinker and cutter aren't different enough at the speed he throws to really fool anyone...plus he only threw the cutter 11%. Generally, 2 pitch starters are not successful. There are exceptions, those exceptions usually have 2 plus pitches...while Davies has a plus change/command with far below average everything else. Also, through the year...the spin rate on all of Davies pitches decreased pretty steadily. As it did, his results went with it. Which tells me he either wore down or was pitching through an injury. If you also factor in the arms we have available and the upside we have available, keeping someone like Davies seems just crazy to me. We have Woodruff, Suter, Houser that we can basically lock into the rotation along with a ton of options to compete for rotation spots. And I know people want to bring back Lyles if possible, which would be a 4th spot gone. Thanks for the well-thought-out response. While I disagree, I appreciate you backing up your thoughts with numbers that support them. I suppose my only counter would be that, when healthy, Davies has proven to be a solid mid-3 ERA starting pitcher for a pretty large sample now. He had some bumps in the road this season, but more or less was good after he got over his mid-season lull which I would contend was caused by an injury he was trying to pitch through. I have a hard time seeing Suter as a lock for the rotation as well. He was so good in that multi-inning relief role this season that I think there is just as likely a chance that he's kept there as there is he being moved back into the rotation. As the Brewers proved this year, you can never have enough solid starting pitching options. They got very lucky with Lyles, but how often are you going to be able to pull a guy off the scrap heap and see him pitch like an ace? Sure, if another team makes a great offer on Davies, you have to consider it. But I personally don't see him going anywhere. I see him back as the #3-4 guy in next year's rotation.

I have a tough time seeing the Brewers outwardly shopping Hader this winter. But it wouldn't surprise me to see a team offer of a package of prospects or MLB talent that makes Stearns consider it, though. I personally can't see Hader being dealt. But if he is, it's going to be for a huge haul. I could see a team with highly ranked systems like the Braves, Padres, White Sox, Rays, and Phillies making a godfather-type offer. The Dodgers and Astros are also possibilities. Every one of those teams has pieces that are either already on the MLB roster, or are MLB-ready, that the Brewers would be interested in. If Chapman doesn't opt out, I think offers for Hader will come in. Whoever loses the Chapman sweepstakes if he does opt out will come calling as well. It never hurts to listen, but those teams will get a "no" unless they offer a king's ransom. The Crew has Hader under control through 2024, per Baseball Reference, and he's not due for arbitration until after 2021. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml That's five years, two of them at MLB minimum (or super-cheap). So, I see the Crew keeping Hader for the two cheap years barring an offer along the lines of Lux and Bellinger from the Dodgers or Tatis, Mejia, and Paddack from the Padres. I really wish MLB allowed teams to trade draft picks, because I think that is what would make me a little more inclined to deal Hader. L.A. can have him, but they not only hand over Bellinger and Lux, they can give us their first-round picks for the next three years, and about a half-dozen others. Kinda make that deal work for the Crew the way the Herschel Walker deal worked for the Cowboys. Uhh, no.

Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me.

And they'll hire some big name to replace him. And then go out and spend a ton of money again. And they will be one of the darlings going into the 2020 season yet again, and fall short because they have no clue how to actually build a winning team. Just like the Mets. Wash, rinse, repeat.

So it's ok because it was originally used to cheer for an African American that played for the team 30 years ago? Um ... ok. I personally don't care how it got it's start in Atlanta. That doesn't change my opinion that it is stupid and, yes, racist. Nice that you seem to ignore the Seminole-approved part. Sometimes a team's front office needs to stick up for their fans - especially against a visiting team's player when the complaint is clearly nonsense. I wasn't. I assume that Florida State has made rather large "donations" to the Seminole tribe over the years.

So it's ok because it was originally used to cheer for an African American that played for the team 30 years ago? Um ... ok. I personally don't care how it got it's start in Atlanta. That doesn't change my opinion that it is stupid and, yes, racist.

With baseball, we can't tell for sure, either way. But I don't think the Braves would have dumped the chop if it hadn't been for Helsley. If it were Brewers-Braves, and the Crew has no one like Helsley to make that complaint, do you think the Braves still dump the chop for the decisive game in the NLDS? Yes or no. No ... but the team being so quick to dump it when Helsley complained also tells me that deep down the team brass knows it's wrong and that it was only a matter of time before someone stepped in and ended it.

Put yourself in the position of a Braves fan. It's the decisive game of a playoff series... they usually have the foam tomahawks... only this time, you get to the ballpark, and there's no tomahawk. Because a player on the team that the Braves have to beat to get to the NLCS complained to the media, and they front office of your home team backed down. Some of the wind had to have gone out of the sails of the fans. The players had to have noticed that, too. The Cards, knowing the Braves backed off THEIR tradition in THEIR home park, had to have felt a bit of a mental boost going into the decisive game of a playoff series. I guarantee you, if it had been Brewers-Braves in the NLDS, there's no Ryan Helsley on the Crew to make that complaint. There's no way the tomahawk chop WOULDN'T have been in full effect for Game 5 of a Brewers-Braves NLDS in SunTrust Park. I think it's stupid to deny that Helsley managed to mitigate the Braves' home-field advantage in the decisive game of the 2019 NLDS. Maybe the Cards still light up the Braves in the top of the first for ten innings. But maybe it doesn't go that way, and you won't go broke betting that Braves fans are asking those questions right now. Counterpoint - The Tomahawk Chop is stupid, pretty blatantly racist, and MLB should have stepped in an put a stop to it long ago. Helsley should have never been in the position to have to take a stand.

I have no ill will against the Nationals. It's actually pretty neat IMO to see them make it this far after losing Mr. Universe in the offseason. Yeah, they beat the Brewers, but I would argue that was more the Brewers beating themselves.

*barf