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SeaBass

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Everything posted by SeaBass

  1. You're absolutely right and I'd wager nearly 100% of the posters here that read it saw right through it. I had a headache for two entire days with how hard my eyes rolled after reading it.
  2. I do think it would give them pause. MA and Stearns later talked about the timing of the Hader trade and how they learned from it, Arnold certainly would have been part of that too he just wasn't "the guy" yet. Maybe that was just talk to appease the media/fans but I felt there was truth to it. That trade didn't bother me then and it certainly doesn't bother me now. But I do understand the clubhouse effect it caused. Doesn't mean that they wouldn't still pull the trigger on a trade like that but they'd think about it for sure.
  3. Why WAR matters as a statistic as explained (perhaps poorly) by a non-stat head. First it should be stated that the overall view of WAR as a stat, as far as I've come to understand it, is it's not to be used as a be-all, end-all in statistics. It's useful as a measure, but I don't think most people would enter into an argument or discussion and just slap down a WAR stat and declare victory. I don't think that voters for MVP simply look at WAR and cast their vote, nor should they. I'm not great at math (in fact, I'm terrible) so generally, advanced metrics look like a different language to me. However, OPS and OPS+ do make sense and a lot of times that's kind of good enough for a baseball fan to elevate their understanding of value when compared to a more passive baseball fan that doesn't look much past the basic stats. Let's look at two players, super stars of the game today. Stats are through games on July 8, 2025. Juan Soto .269 AVG, 66 R, 21 HR, 52 RBI, 10 SB Elly De La Cruz .275 AVG, 68 R, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 22 SB Which has more value? Old school numbers are fairly even, maybe offering a slight edge towards Elly. Both are over 6 feet tall (yay?). I chose these two guys because in my fantasy baseball league I had to choose between them with my 1st round pick, which was #6 overall. Ohtani, Witt, Judge, Ramirez, Skenes were the top 5 picks. So it's been a point of interest for me as the season has progressed. I ended up picking Soto which was somewhat of a gamble with him switching teams and not having Aaron Judge protecting him in the lineup anymore. Elly went with the #7 pick. Keep in mind, in rotisserie fantasy baseball steals are a pretty important category and getting a star player with power that can steal 60 bases is super attractive. I think a lot of people would have taken Elly at #6. I had one big reason to choose Soto (which I mention later but if you know, you know). For a while I regretted that choice as Soto indeed got off to a slow start with only 3 HR by the end of April, while Elly got off to a hot start. (Ahh, remember the torpedo bat hype? Good times.) Now it's looking more even, at least in fantasy terms. Even so, fantasy baseball does not factor in defense, which is factored into WAR. Right off the bat Elly as a SS would suggest a value bump but Elly is maybe slightly above average as a defender at his position since there are so many excellent defensive shortstops. Soto is squarely below average at his position. The stolen bases are also an advantage though Elly is not on the same 60 steal pace from last season. Soto's career high is 12. Of course, most people here see that OBP was left off the stats above. OBP is such an important stat that its omission is glaring. This is why batting average has become nearly useless in today's game, it's just such a poor stat to make any kind of evaluation with on its own. It is important but only when compared and contrasted with other stats like OBP and SLG. Soto outclasses Elly because he draws a prodigious number of walks. He's lead all of MLB in walks 3 of the last 4 seasons and is currently leading MLB in walks with 72 which brings him to a .399 OBP, which would actually be a career low OBP if the season ended before games played today. Our fantasy league uses OBP rather than AVG as a rotisserie stat and that's the big reason I chose Soto. It's bonkers how quickly most players group into an OBP that is .330 or lower. Soto is a guy that you can bank on being .400 minimum. Elly isn't quite on Soto's level but he's not terrible by any means, he has a .348 OBP which is a nice improvement on his previous two seasons. (I dream of Jackson Chourio being at a .348 OBP. Someday...) Add in slugging and Soto pulls away more. Soto's slash: .269/.399/.509 for a .908 OPS Elly's slash: .275/.348/.482 for an .829 OPS (There's some rounding going on in there.) End result: Soto 3.8 bWAR / 2.6 fWAR Elly 3.1 bWAR / 2.1 fWAR These guys are really good players with similar appearing basic stats but just simply looking at OBP and SLG helps define the difference between them. And there's more baked into WAR than that but to me it's kind of easy to see why Soto just feels like he's better even when their production looks similar. It wouldn't, however, shock me if someone were able to put together an argument for Elly despite this. For those interested I'm in 3rd place in my league currently. The guy in first place is in a runaway position but the next three teams including mine are pretty close in the running for 2nd. It's a H2H using rotisserie categories so each week you can add a possible 10 wins to your record using the 5x5 rotisserie stats. Last season I won the championship despite being the 5th seed in the playoffs. I had to beat the #4, #1 and #2 seeds to win.
  4. With as close as the Cubs, Brewers and Cards are in the standings I'll take a split series between the Cubs and Cards all day long (or 4 days long I guess). Brewers just gotta keep on winning.
  5. A Willson Contreras HBP is one of my favorite things as a baseball fan. Can't happen often enough.
  6. I am so tired already of people commenting, just on the internet in general, about Misiorowski eventually getting hurt when they're clearly talking about his arm. As far as I've seen his near misses with injury have been when he rolled his ankle on the mound in his debut and yesterday in the first inning where his landing foot slipped a little and it looked like his knee hyperextended a tad bit. I'm just rooting for the guy to keep standing upright at this point.
  7. I think it's pretty hard to justify a rookie with about a month of service time being awarded an all star spot. Which is what Misiorowski will be at when July 15 rolls around. Last season Skenes was called up in early May. That made it easier to award him a spot with how much he dominated. Misiorowski just made his debut June 12th. MLB has been here time and time again with rookies making incredible debuts in a short time and more often than not they don't make it. Yasiel Puig and Elly De La Cruz had a ton of hype behind them and didn't make it despite a lot of national talk about how they should. And those guys played every day unlike a starting pitcher. Puig ended up only making one career appearance in the ASG, De La Cruz looks like he'll be an annual participant for the near future at least. I'm ok with Misiorowski just being a rookie this season, I don't think he needs an all star game appearance to validate anything. Next year is soon enough.
  8. Imagine the Twins giving up on Byron Buxton because he's hurt all the time... Not saying Mitchell is as good as him but he's still a good player. You can deal with injuries to players that have a positive performance when they're healthy. He's not a starting pitcher that you're relying on to be your ace. The team can cover for him while he's out and make room for him when he's healthy. It's not that difficult.
  9. I didn't see the game live but I watched the YouTube highlights and they spent a good amount of time on the "bat drama". I thought it was a little over the top to kick the guy out and was glad when he returned but I do see the side of the Cubs not wanting fans to put themselves at risk of injury for climbing the net. I agree also that it was cool that Sal gave the guy a bat. I thought while watching the highlights that it was something Sal would do and it's cool to hear that he did. Ok, I'm back to hating all things Cubs again. I blacked out there for a moment. 😂
  10. I don't have an issue with you wanting to explore upgrades at SS. I just don't view Edwards as a realistic target. He's a good player, I'm not saying you're wrong to like him. My opinion is that the price to trade for Edwards right now would make the Brewers choose to wait for Made or Pratt instead.
  11. Sure but back to my first point, the Marlins aren't very likely to trade the guy unless it's part of a big deal. Marlins are a last place team, they don't need to push for the playoffs. Edwards doesn't hit arbitration until 2027, he's is exactly the type of guy the Marlins want to hold on to. Let's say they think about trading him with a year of control left. That's what, 2029? There's your 3 or 4 years. Like I said, they could just wait for Made or Pratt. Or he's part of a trade package to get a front of the rotation type starter.
  12. Yes and I'm sure if the Brewers wanted to offer Jacob Misiorowski maybe they could convince the Marlins to trade him. Or they could just wait for Jesus Made.
  13. If memory serves the Brewers were strongly considering moving him to SS this year. Then in spring training he developed shoulder soreness which Murphy surmised was due to the longer throws from SS. I don't think the Brewers doubt he can be a gold glove SS they just didn't want to chance injury to an important player for them.
  14. Mookie Betts has won 6 gold gloves playing in the OF and then in 2023 and 2024 the Dodgers moved him to play significant time at 2B and SS. This year the only position he's played is SS. But I guess that doesn't count because he didn't win his gold gloves at 2B? That's such a ridiculous condition to form an opinion around.
  15. I typed a great many words but after I typed it all out I found I could summarize my thoughts in just one sentence. The fact you feel Willy Adames deserves to be booed says a lot more about your character than it does about his. While you're booing just remember, Willy Adames was a member of this organization for just three and a half seasons. Wasn't drafted here, wasn't a minor league prospect here, never signed a contract here. I'm not counting any arbitration agreements because ultimately those are formalities unless a player wants to gamble against odds that are stacked against him. End of the day he's being told what he'll be paid, it's not up to him. And none of that was his fault. He never had control of his own destiny until this offseason at the age of 29 and the Brewers didn't make him an offer, didn't even ask him what he was looking for in a contract. He wanted them to, they just didn't. I guess I couldn't help myself, I typed more anyway.
  16. I wasn't posting that to be "right" on the internet but you mentioned you hadn't seen it in a while and I had this vision in my head of you wanting to see it again and starting to watch Crimson Tide and wondering when Sean Connery was going to show up LOL. Not that it would be a bad thing to watch Crimson Tide again, it's a great movie too.
  17. You must mean The Hunt for Red October because Sean Connery isn't in Crimson Tide, that one stars Denzel Washington and Gene Hackman.
  18. "What has Gute done this offseason that even counts as what you're suggesting?" You mean signing someone that can be called a solid contributor? I mean, dang, what's your definition of that anyway? Future Hall of Famer apparently. You're likely right, Hobbs is not giving people the impression he'll be a HoFer. Why is that your floor for acceptable roster construction? Reggie White and Julius Peppers. Cool. So yeah I'm still really super confused.
  19. It sure seems to me some people on this board are all about the Packers needing to sign some huge FA every offseason or they're trash. Feel like nobody has been paying attention to how the Packers have operated for oh, the last 30+ years. They signed Reggie White in free agency. That happened one time, in like 1993. Where are these grand expectations of free agency daydreaming are coming from? For the longest time people griped about Ted Thompson's non-activity in free agency and saying things along the lines of, "He doesn't have to sign the BEST guys out there, just add some solid pieces that can contribute." Now Brian Gutekunst is doing that and we've graduated to, "Nope! Not good enough!" LOL
  20. It was, of course, 100% an April Fools joke.
  21. I'm not so good with the jumping so I underhand toss my Pet Rock at some squares.
  22. Respectfully, I see both sides of this coin. I think most regular posters here know that you share links with useful information about the Brewers. But I also think that empty posts with only a link are... lacking. Even a quick sentence to provide some context would be enough I'd think. Something like, "Hey I found this site with pictures of cute bunnies if anyone is interested." Not everyone might want to see cute bunnies so they know not to click the link (LOL). Now please enjoy this picture of a Kung Fu bunny.
  23. Started too early, stayed too late. My kind of houseguest.
  24. Can you imagine if it was the Cubs logo on the Milwaukee Brewers Talk forum instead?
  25. We don't know if it was early, maybe one of the mods lives in Iceland.
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