long ball
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Everything posted by long ball
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Mariners “Actively” Trying To Move Robinson Cano
long ball replied to ewitkows's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
When there are so many freely available options for second base I don't think it makes sense to acquire Cano. The risk reward benefit probably isn't there at that price for the brewers. Once he's moved off of first base he probably won't be worth $10mm/yr anyway. -
Eovaldi could help every team in the MLB. I don't think the Brewers have the financial flexibility to take the risk on a 2x tommy john surgery guy at his predicted contract.
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After Hiura's AFL season... do we really need a bridge to Hiura, or just to plug him in on Opening Day? I'm not saying it's right, but there is no way Hiura will be on the opening day roster. Teams just don't promote top prospects until they gain that extra year of control. I think that's somewhere around 4/28/19. So that's probably the earliest we see Hiura regardless of how how he hits in spring/AAA and independent of other options they have at second base to start the season.
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Nationals sign Kurt Suzuki to 2-year deal ($10M total)
long ball replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I kinda liked the idea of bringing is Suzuki to help the offense, but since he doesn’t have a strong defensive reputation I knew he was unlikely to become a Brewer. Solid signing at a modest price for the Nats. -
I love Greinke. He's one of my favorite Brewers ever. I think Mrtplush is right and he's probably worth ~3/60+ as a free agent. I don't think the Brewers are in a position to pay market value on a starting pitcher though. The only way the Brewers can compete is to develop their own talent, make smart trades, and get surplus value out of most/all contracts.
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Brewers Interested in Anibal Sanchez
long ball replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
OMG a rumor. This will probably end up being nothing, but I think this is the first Brewers connection we've seen this off season. An inexpensive veteran starter who could be more than an innings eater makes some sense. Since none of the internal options are LHP someone like Derek Holland might make more sense, but it's early. -
Players added to the 40-man tend prior to Rule 5 tend to make it through their first full year on the 40-man without being removed. Looking back, Brock Kjeldgaard was DFA'd on July 27th, eight months after being added to the 40-man, one of the few examples like that I could find since the start of the Melvin/Stearns era. That is good news. Hopefully he gets is shot this coming year. It just looks like with Braun in the outfield that their is no place for Santana and he does not make a very good 4th outfielder. Taylor fits that bill better than him and to an extent Broxton (although I really love Broxton's defense). There's two main points I disagree with here. 1) why do we need to think of Braun as a primary starter? He will miss time due to injury and he hasn't been great the past two seasons. I know some of his statcast numbers were good so I don't think he's useless, but I also don't think he needs to be on the field 5-6 games a week. 2) why can't Santana be a 4th outfielder on this team? Typically you want someone who can play CF, but Yelich and Perez are both capable of making a spot start in CF or covering for a few days.
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A nice cap to the 2018 season. The best and probably most fun Brewers season of my lifetime.
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I'm sure there are conversations going on, but I'd be surprised if any of the notable options actually sign before the non-tender deadline. In an ideal world they wrap up their preferred second baseman in the next two weeks and then non-tender or trade Schoop before the deadline. I just don't think it will actually play out that way.
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I agree that Lowrie probably gets more than 2/18. MLBtr predicted 3/30, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs predicted 2/30, Jim Bowden of the Athletic 2/20. I do think that Lowrie is a great fit for the Brewers though. Primary 2b to start 2019. If/When Hiura arrives in 2019 Lowrie becomes either the super sub between 2b and 3b (maybe ss, if they were willing to play Schoop/Miller there maybe they'd be willing to play Lowrie there depending on who the SP is). The likelihood of Aguilar repeating 2018 are slim so him getting fewer PAs vs RHP is a good thing so Shaw can play first as well. Lowrie will help them push the boundaries of positionless defense on the infield. With the number of options at 2b available the Brewers can be patient though. Unless they really like a guy (maybe it's Schoop??), I don't think we will see them be super aggressive in acquiring a 2b if Schoop is non-tendered.
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Fangraphs shows is k% at 26.5% for his MLB career. (maybe the difference between PA and AB?) I like Nimmo, but I don't think I'd spend a lot of prospect capital in another corner outfielder.
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The likelihood of Braun and Aguilar being worthy of 500 PAs in 2019 doesn’t feel very high. There will be PAs for Santana if he’s still with the brewers.
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Solving the Catcher Position for 2019
long ball replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Is it really a bad thing to have a 60/40 or 50/50 playing time split at catcher with the way pitching has changed? The job of catching every day has to be mentally exhausting. The amount of game planning that goes into preparing for every different batter a team has + how a specific pitcher is going to attack each hitter. There's more information than ever before so the job of a catcher has evolved over the years. We saw the Brewers pair up Pina and Kratz with specific starting pitchers and I'd expect that to continue in 2019 (easier to do because neither was a great hitter in 2018). If you invest heavily into a catcher like Ramos, Grandal, or Realmuto you probably want them playing 80% of the time. -
Statcast has him at +5 for outs above average in 2018. DRS has consistently rated his arm as slightly above average in RF. So he might be a pretty solid defender in RF even if UZR and DRS don't look very favorable. He's had one amazing season and otherwise pretty bad at the plate. Probably only interesting as a free agent if he's non-tendered because he doesn't fit on this team at a ~$8m salary, IMO.
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Heyman is basically a hype man for Boras clients, but if almost every team has checked in on Marwin Gonzalez that probably means the Brewers will not be signing him. I like him at the 3/21 type deal that Escobar signed, but at the 3/30+ predictions I've seen I would have no interest.
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Well the Mariners 2018 season kind of mirrors the Brewers of 2014. Not unlike the 2014 Brewers, they have a lot of guys in mid career getting expensive and tough intra-division competition. Brewers waited until a horrid start to 2015 to start looking to sell. Mariners have a ton of money committed to very few players. Brewers at least had guys who were on back ends of team friendly deals to trade. Not so with the Mariners. I was actually thinking there were a lot of similarities to the 2014 Brewers, as you pointed out. If the Brewers had actively sold going into the 2014 season I would have been upset.
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The market inefficiency right now is playing for the middle. If you don't have a 95 win team you may as well have a 65 win team. The Mariners fall somewhere in between. They haven't made the playoffs in forever. They have some really good pieces on the roster and could easily end up back in the 85-90 win range in 2019 which gets you in the playoffs most years.
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I know this really isn't the point of the post, but I find it ridiculous that they'd be willing to tear it down. I know that the AL was extremely competitive in 2018, but that is more of an exception than the rule. The Twins won the WC2 in 2017 with only 85 wins. In 2015 the NL WC2 took 97 wins, but in 2016 it only took 87 wins. Teams should be more willing to play the middle and instead of just selling they should attempt to make improvements on the margins. Once you get into the playoffs anything can happen.
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If they offer arbitration to Schoop ($10mm estimate) that puts the payroll at ~$112mm. Will they be able to fit an upgrade at catcher into the budget? Sure I suppose they might be able to find a taker for Thames salary and they should pretty easily be able to find someone to take on Anderson, but then the team depth takes a hit and you're looking for reinforcements or counting on sustained success from Aguilar and putting some weight on the young pitchers to succeed and pitch a bulk of the innings in 2019.
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Man, with so many second basemen available someone is bound to fall through the cracks in free agency and be had for a bargain. I just don't see Schoop at $10mm fitting into this payroll.
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I did think Cain was going to win and I'm bummed that he didn't, but Inciarte is certainly very deserving as you pointed out. The NL Gold Glove field is really deep at CF. Almora, Marte, and Bader are all fantastic in CF too.
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After thinking about what the Brewers Rotation "could" look like next season it might be more important to field a stronger infield defense than they did in 2018. Ground ball rates: Woodruff- 50% ML career, similar in the minors Chacin- 42.2% 2018, but 47.4% career Davies- 48.7% career Burnes- 45.9% was the lowest rate in the minors. Nelson- 49.7% career Miley- 49% career (if retained) We know Suter and his FB tendancy won't be in the rotation in 2019. Anderson very much seems in question. Peralta appears to be more FB:GB neutral. Point being is they may be less willing to play Shaw primarily at 2b compared to what I initially thought. So that might diminish the appeal of Donaldson and Moustakas. It might increase the interest in LeMahieu given his strong defense (and that contract prediction from MLBTR is pretty palatable).
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I think that’s a pretty reasonable price tag. Mccutchen at the same predicted contract also makes some sense if the brewers decide to add a free agent corner outfielder.
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No doubt. It's not easy being a superior athlete, we need constant fine tuning. Exactly. That’s why the brewers should be investing in high speed cameras for Miller park and Maryvale as well as a biomechanics expert. Know what players are doing when they’re going well and be able to identify the issues and correct them when things are going poorly.
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Since they got the Rangers to take on Smyly’s $7m in 2019 it’s basically a $13m net decision. Really not a big deal for a team that’s going to have a payroll over $220m. Actually pretty good leverage for the cubs to use that buyout against the rangers as a negotiation term to dump a $7m question mark on them.