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long ball

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Everything posted by long ball

  1. long ball
    Miley pitched well in a very limited sample size due to injury, after several seasons of poor performance. Any GM who hands him a 3-year/$30 million deal should be immediately fired. Jhoulys Chacin signed a 2-year $15 million deal last December coming off a stretch of much higher consistency and results. Granted I know Miley is left-handed, which will increase he value some, but I think he'd be lucky to get a similar contract to what Chacin signed for. Ya that 2/$15m type deal was pretty common with back end type starters last off season. Cashner 2/16 Chacin 2/15.5 Mikolas 2/15.5 Vargas 2/16
  2. long ball
    Yep. It's interesting to see the starting pitcher market develop. The prices appear to be a little higher than anticipated. Next in line will be Keuchel, Happ and Morton. Not sure where Kikuchi fits in things. But after those guys, you get into the next tier of starters - Gio, Miley, Sanchez, Harvey, Lynn, Holland, Pomeranz, etc. I'm guessing the Brewers go shopping for a left hander in the latter bin as Keuchel and Happ will be getting more than we want to spend. That means Miley, Gio, Holland, Pomeranz -- probably forgotten someone, but you get the idea. With these guys we limit the money - and just as important - the years. I definitely agree with you. A lot of the predictions had Miley and Gio getting multi year deals. Not sure if i'd be down for that, but these are the type the Brewers will probably be able to sign.
  3. long ball
    Ray would probably demand a similar package to what the Mariners got for Paxton. Possibly dominant lefties with 2 years of control who have some injury concerns. A theoretical trade probably includes one of Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta.
  4. long ball
    If the Dbacks go full on Mariners there are several guys the Brewers could theoretically target in trade. Ahmed, Marte, Peralta, Ray, Godley, Greinke, and Bradley are all roster fits for the Brewers to a certain extent. Greinke is the only guy they probably desperately want to move since the rest are arb/pre-arb or in the case of Marte signed long term for cheap.
  5. long ball
    Fair, however you also have a clear platoon need with Shaw. And potentially some time at 1B for Shaw if Jesus is more like 2nd half than 1st half. Basically, look at how much PT Perez got last year in spite of having Shaw, Moose, Schoop all healthy. There should be a lot of ABs for a versatile IF who can play vs lefties and I'd prefer that person to be better than Perez. Ideally you could clear Thames money to cover the cost and give more roster flexibility. Any clear DH options in the AL that could make sense for Thames? I agree that Perez getting 350ish PAs in 2018 was still too many and there would still be plenty of PAs available for an infield bat even if Hiura is up in May. I would still like a guy like Lowrie or LeMahieu even on a multi year deal. Thames would be a straight up salary dump so you'd have to find someone who likes Thames' bat better than the other guys in free agency who will get about $6m. Guys like Morrison (1/$6.5m in 2018), Duda (1/$3.5 in 2018), Matt Adams (1/$4m in 2018), Mark Reynolds (minor league deal in 2018), Justin Bour (non-tendered with projected arbi ~$5m), Wilmer Flores (non-tendered with projected arbi ~$5m), etc are all first base/DH types who are 1 year deal guys. Based on those contracts from 2018 and the guys who were non-tendered this year you might not actually find anyone to take on all of Thames' money.
  6. long ball
    It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins. Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen. There's something to be said about the risk that the Phillies took on Arrieta and Santana. They knew that they had a lot of wiggle room in the next few seasons and therefore chose to pay what was likely a higher annual cost in return for less years. I'm sure they weren't hoping to be trying to dump him right away in 2019, but only 2 years of commitment seems to make it more manageable to trade him than if he had something like 4 years at $12-15 million/each left. They also knew that even if he was playing better and they didn't want to deal him or that if they were simply stuck with him, his money would be off the books by the time they need to dig into the coffers for Nola, etc. (added to Corbin and/or Harper and/or Machado) if their plan comes to fruition. Ya that's a fair point. The contract didn't necessarily hamstring them, but they still had a $35m mistake that they needed to get rid of. You can get Santana's production for about $6m on the free agent market. Must be nice to have a big payroll that allows you to absorb big $$ mistakes.
  7. long ball
    It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins. Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen.
  8. long ball
    Interesting proposal. I don’t think I like Marco Gonzales enough to take on that Seager contract though.
  9. long ball
    For LeMahieu doubters this is a solid read. I’m not necessarily advocating for him, but it’s interesting. I went from a hard no on DJL to a maybe. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-hidden-upside-of-a-normal-free-agent/
  10. long ball
    Ahh. I wasn’t aware of that. If they’re going to sign a guy who can’t move it may as well be Daniel Murphy. Cross him off the list.
  11. long ball
    Ya I think a LOOGY without an option isn’t great bet to last a full 162 on the roster given how the Brewers use their pen. Jennings was used quite a bit in the first half as a conventional reliever. He wasn’t great against righties, but he was pretty effective overall. I think this was a roster crunch consideration more than just a financial decision. (Broth DJ and XC were projected for ~$1.5 mm in arbi)
  12. long ball
    I didn’t realize Saladino had an option left. Great depth to potentially stash in AAA for depth.
  13. long ball
    Perfectly respectable utility player. Allows for the brewers to go down to a 4 man bench for long stretches at a time. I just don’t want to see him get 450 PAs again. 2018 was a step in the right direction.
  14. long ball
    Add Wilmer Flores to the potential list. He’s actually a pretty interesting name. He doesn’t strike out, he hits for a little power, slightly above league average hitter over several seasons now, should be relatively cheap, and had 700+ MLB innings at all 4 infield positions. He didn’t play a ton of 2b last year though so I can’t say for certain he’s a viable stop gap option there or just a utility guy.
  15. long ball
    I agree that La Stella just doesn't serve a big need for a team over the course of 162 games. He has a pretty empty OBP because he has almost no power. He has no speed. He can't play defense. Maybe he's a decent guy to have around in September/October where you can fit a singles/bb PH on the roster, but not over 162. My guess is that Russell is tendered. Sports teams continuously demonstrate that they don't care about domestic violence.
  16. long ball
    If the Brewers non-tender Schoop, I wonder if he will get a multi year deal or if he will sign a 1-year deal hoping to have a bounce back season. I agree with non-tendering Schoop and I was a fan of the trade initially. Stack good decisions. Don't compound bad ones.
  17. long ball
    I don't think "saving" on payrolls in previous seasons really has any meaningful impact on what teams are willing to spend going forward. The Brewers also renovated Maryvale and bought the Mudcats so there were other capital investments made. I agree that $105-110mm for the opening day payroll feels about right.
  18. long ball
    1) Yelich 2) Hader 3) Hiura 4) Burnes 5) Knebel 6) Shaw 7) Woodruff 8) Arcia 9) Peralta 10) Jeffress 11) Davies 12) Santana 13) Aguilar 14) Cain 15) Nelson 16) Brown 17) Ray 18) Chacin 19) Williams 20) Lutz I valued cheap + team control over current production for the most part. I have Davies and Taylor Williams on my list. Both are cheap with many years of control remaining. Davies has been a solidly above average starter in 2016-2017 before an injury plagued 2018. He'll be 26 next season. Taylor Williams obviously was a bit up and down last season and likely relegated to shuttle crew service to start 2019, but he showed some long streaks of effectiveness.
  19. long ball
    "the farm alone doesn’t project a clear picture of the youthful health of this franchise" This is what people should be focusing on. They'll have 5-6 impact type players who are minimum salary guys on the mlb roster + another 3-4 on the shuttle crew. The organization is in good shape overall.
  20. long ball
    For the last 2 years i thought Jesse Chavez was the same guy the Brewers had a few years back named Daniel Herrera. I was amazed how well he was pitching remembering back to how bad he was for the Brewers and how well the Brewers hit him when he was on the Reds. Those are my only thoughts on Jesse Chavez.
  21. long ball
    I hope Moustakas is a back up plan for the Brewers. He's an ok player, but would love a higher OBP guy even if it means giving up some slugging.
  22. long ball
    I'd be a no for either Burnes or Woodruff for Bumgarner straight up. Back to back short seasons for Bumgarner and a second year of declining results. His numbers were pretty good 2x through the order in 2018 though. It would be funny to see him come to the Brewers, become a 5 inning pitcher, have no one pay attention all year, and then when it gets to the playoffs have Smoltz freak out that Bumgarner is pulled after 2x through the order.
  23. long ball
    that would be like the reverse of the Sexson deal.
  24. long ball
    I think it's a good deal for the Braves, but I definitely understand why the Brewers aren't signing him for that price or more. The Brewers have more holes to fill and probably need to diversify that risk over multiple acquisitions.
  25. long ball
    I think it's a good deal for the Braves, but I definitely understand why the Brewers aren't signing him for that price or more. The Brewers have more holes to fill and probably need to diversify that risk over multiple acquisitions.
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