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True Blue Brew Crew

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Everything posted by True Blue Brew Crew

  1. True Blue Brew Crew
    Lots of good stuff in there. Makes me wonder if the Brewers have a strong connection with Driveline. At the very least they obviously value the work being done there. Tomlin trained at Driveline from January 8-17th and then signed the minor league deal with Milwaukee on February 7th. Did someone at Driveline tip the Brewers off that Tomlin made some huge strides? Does Driveline shop their data to MLB teams? Do the players themselves take the data and then present it to teams? I'm very curious about how that works. The article hopefully helps people get over the loss of Derek Johnson. There's much more to the Brewers success with pitchers than their former pitching coach.
  2. True Blue Brew Crew
    Why would Peralta be at risk for an innings limit prior to Burnes or Woodruff? 2018 total innings pitched for the 3 bolded... Peralta - 144.1 Woodruff - 126 Burnes - 125.2
  3. True Blue Brew Crew
    And nor should they. There are very few pitchers in the game who you are better off going a 3rd time through a batting order with than any other available arm.
  4. True Blue Brew Crew
    Not sure why the surprise? I think the bolded kind of go hand in hand. The difference between a bench player on a major league deal, a bench player who came in on a minor league deal, a AAAA player, an older AAA player, a player who heads overseas for a few years, and an unemployed vet is often negligible. Teams are figuring this out and saving the guaranteed dollars for the difference makers.
  5. True Blue Brew Crew
    In addition to obviously enjoying his time in Milwaukee last year, Moose probably sees the chance to put up the kind of numbers that might finally get him the multiyear deal he's gunning for...
  6. True Blue Brew Crew
    To be fair, though, you’ve done quite a job of telling us how right you think you are previously. Fair enough, time will tell.
  7. True Blue Brew Crew
    Yeah, tell me about it. If I wind up being wrong I'll have to own it and move on. I've never seen someone so dead set on making sure it's known that they were right and others were wrong. It's quite premature at this point as well. Nothing Counsell said eliminates what HNW says it does. I've said from the start that the transition away from starters and relievers could take a decade to fully set in. Countless times I've said that the current Max Scherzer's don't disappear overnight. If I wind up being wrong about anything in 2019 it will from overestimating how big of a step towards eliminating traditional roles the Brewers take. It might be implemented more slowly but there's no denying the change is coming. Maybe Tampa will stay the leaders on this rather than the Brewers as I suggested. Tar and feather me for such an outrageous thought.
  8. True Blue Brew Crew
    Lol at doing this celebratory dancing based on what Counsell is saying when he clearly left open for plenty of interpretation. “We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different. “We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.” Did I miss where he said they're going back to a traditional 5 man rotation? Did I ever say they were going to continue to use a pitcher for one out to start the game? Nothing Counsell said equals no piggybacking or tandems. "it's going to look different" is your clue that they're still going to be doing non-traditional things. The same people declaring there won't be piggybacks or tandems in 2019 even though Counsell didn't say that, are the ones expecting additional starters to be signed. At some point you'd have no choice but to pair some of them up. Wait and see.
  9. True Blue Brew Crew
    No genuine comparison between Kluber and Peralta can be made without salary being mentioned. How many wins above replacement separate the two and does it outweigh the huge cost and control disparity. Can't have a realistic discussion without that consideration. "Kluber >>>> Peralta" is not only a gross oversimplification, it might not even be accurate assessment going forward. And that matters a whole lot more than the past.
  10. True Blue Brew Crew
    FTC, the list you want to be looking at is the MLB Power Rankings. That's where the strength of the recently graduated and traded prospects lies. There's nothing wrong with an organization's prospect ranking falling as long as the result is a stronger MLB club. And that's what happened here. The real problem is when the prospect capital is spent and the MLB club doesn't improve. Sure it would be great if the farm was loaded and the big club was a title contender. Short of that you have to ask yourself, would you rather be the Brewers or the Padres right now? The key going forward will be to restock the system by the time the current major league group needs reinforcements. And even that doesn't require building at top 10 system. You just need to have reinforcements in the right positions (Hiura) or enough capital to acquire controllable talent where it's needed in limited spots. Stearns is surely mindful of the one way he can drive this team into a rebuild. And that's to get old or on the verge of expensive all up and down the MLB club. That was the downfall of the team Melvin built. You want controllable talent sprinkled in throughout the MLB lineup so they're not hitting free agency or their twilight at the same time. That's when a top 10, probably top 5 system is required.
  11. True Blue Brew Crew
    I definitely could see that happening and hope it does. I'd love to see every ball and strike called accurately.
  12. True Blue Brew Crew
    Nice Fangraphs article touching on this topic... https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/ryan-braun-isnt-done-yet/ Kinda lands on both sides of this discussion. Based upon how hard Braun was hitting the ball, the case can surely be made to change nothing. On the flip-side the argument is made that his tweaks are with eliminating bad luck in mind. I'm skeptical of altering a swing that data suggests should have resulted in .296 AVG, .515 SLG, .368 wOBA but as a fan I'd much rather just hope it works out.
  13. True Blue Brew Crew
    The poo-pooing I'm seeing here of the effect of superior pitch-framing is based upon publicly available stats. The data we're seeing may be rudimental but the top-tier analytics departments employed by some major league clubs go way beyond what we're privy to. Since I've heard about, and rarely seen, the types and level of data these departments generate, I can only revert to scenarios like that offered earlier. When the elite pitch framers turn a ball into a strikeout it can have a profound impact that only theoretical math can quantify. Ending an inning versus walking in a run for instance. And how do you calculate what happens beyond that batter? A strikeout in place of a based loaded walk not only saves one run, it might save 2-3 more runs that would've followed. How do you account for the saved pitches thrown? Or avoiding an upcoming unfavorable matchup and getting into the dugout? How do you calculate with rudimental stats the effect of significantly more 50/50 counts turning into your team's favor, 1-1 counts turning into 1-2 as opposed to 2-1. It's something that none of us can view on paper or online. You have to be able to conceptualize the compound effect. sveumrules did a great job illustrating this by pointing out the number of chances a catcher has to influence a result. There is a tremendous variance that can be swung in a team's favor or out of its favor. No stat we fans can currently lay our eyes on does any justice illustrating the effect.
  14. True Blue Brew Crew
    Interesting. So you don't think routinely and regularly turning walks into strikeouts or changing a would-be 2-1 count into 1-2 can make even a 10 run difference over the course of a season? Saved baserunners, advantageous pitcher's counts, escaping a bases loaded jam on a borderline 3-2 pitch, etc. A look at how many extra strikes the good ones get called in their favor would probably be an eye opener for you.
  15. True Blue Brew Crew
    A signing like this says nothing about the plans for the major league roster. You're not doing this to answer doubts you have about your plans there. This says nothing about Shaw, Hiura, Perez, Spangenberg, Dubon, potentially Moustaska, etc. It's a flyer folks. Do you start making life altering decisions after purchasing a lottery ticket? Look at it this signing that way.
  16. True Blue Brew Crew
    The things I've said that you disagree with just haven't happened yet. You'll come around. I didn't want to dirty the other thread, but this is EXACTLY the type of arrogant non-sense that ruined the last thread. What is wrong with you guy? I'm trying to figure out how you function in your daily life if you are anything like this in the real world. You're welcome to your own opinion, but it's just that...an opinion. Nothing that we've disagreed on is factually provable yet or definitive one way or the other. I think I just figured out the issue between you and I. You take everything I say to heart. That was a friendly jab. Every discussion on a message board isn't a war you have to wage. Everyone here seems like they're looking for a way to take everything personally. The one time I complained to mods was in response to a direct insult. That's when things go too far. If you reach far enough you can find an insult in just about every post that isn't in agreement with one of your own. That's no way to go about online discussion.
  17. True Blue Brew Crew
    The things I've said that you disagree with just haven't happened yet. You'll come around.
  18. True Blue Brew Crew
    And to get directly to the accusation of collusion, you're going to need proof, not anecdotal history. Especially when there are readily apparent business climate excuses for teams to point to as I did above with attendance and the luxury tax.
  19. True Blue Brew Crew
    Well, MLB attendance dropped below 70 million for the first time in 15 years. Usually when a business is in decline it equals layoffs. Since MLB isn't going to start playing with fewer players on the field or shorten the size of rosters, the logical reactive step is to tighten spending. I realize revenues from TV and broadcasts are still growing but the declining popularity of the sport doesn't scream "keep raising payroll". They sure can't raise ticket prices and expect attendance to actually increase. Scream collusion all you want but no business gives raises when the sale of the product is in decline. Maybe you'd see the type of spending you'd like to see if the big spenders didn't have to guard against the luxury tax. That's a big part of your problem. On the flip side, it there was no luxury tax and the disparity between the big markets and small ones got even bigger, the sport would die an even faster death.
  20. True Blue Brew Crew
    Definite oversimplification on my part. Where I'd be really leery of Keuchel's numbers blowing up would be if he were to sign with a perennial bottom feeder in DRS such as the Orioles, Phillies, or Mets. His supposed final 3 (Hou, Mil, Atl) is comprised of teams that do a good job aligning their defenses. Who knows, maybe that's playing a role in why they're his final 3.
  21. True Blue Brew Crew
    Well then I guess its a good thing the Brewers excel at placing their defenders where the ball is put in play.
  22. True Blue Brew Crew
    I'd be over Machado's antics the second it was announced he was signing with the Brewers. Just the same, if he signs with a rival or a team standing in the way of the Brewers winning the World Series, I'll relish in disliking him very much.
  23. True Blue Brew Crew
    If only there was a way to "short" a team like you can a stock. I guess there is if the win total shoots high enough. I'll be all over the Phillies under in Vegas if they sign Harper and get anywhere near the 4th highest win total.
  24. True Blue Brew Crew
    I would place a large amount of money that Vlad Jr, Tatis Jr, Eloy, Whitley, Robles, Franco, and Kirilloff all have better careers than Huira, and the others in the top 20 probably have bigger upsides - but more boom or bust. Huira isn't getting as much (taking this with a grain of salt as Top 20 is pretty freakin good anyway) prospect love, because he plays 2b. I think you just re-stated what I said. There are few ranked ahead of him I'd bet on and his seemingly low ranking is due to position. Hooray for agreement!
  25. True Blue Brew Crew
    And if a higher percentage of those 100+ exit velocity outs go over the fence...that raises his avg, obp, and slugging. If Braun thinks it's the best thing to do, he's probably right and it will probably be a good adjustment. If only it was that simple. It's not. Altering the plane of your swing is not an automatic positive outcome. Since he was hitting the ball quite hard last year there's plenty of reason to say don't change a thing.
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