monty57

Thanks X & Al, if he's truly a .700 OPS guy and has a weak arm, he probably is best suited for AAA with a ceiling of bench duty on the Brewers. I think our 2010 OF situation got a lot clearer with the Gwynn-for-Gerut trade. We likely just picked up our #1 option at CF next year, giving Cain some more time in the minors. Braun-Gerut-Hart with some combination of Gillespie/Katin/Bourgeois/Duffy (if he's still around) as our 4th/5th OF.

Can the Padres just pitch Peavy every day until him arm falls off and then collect insurance money so they effectively don't have to pay him? No team that he wants to go to is going to give up talent for him, and he won't go to any team that will offer anything. The Padres are screwed either way.

JJ, I agree with you, but I think maybe there's a different tack to take. Forget all about Nelson, which I don't really think either you or I care too much about losing and try this: The Brewers have completely misused Gamel for the past few weeks. He's got six at bats and one game at third. How in the heck is he getting any better by rotting on the bench? Macha will seemingly find any excuse not to play him. If this is the way Macha is going to misuse his top prospects, I would rather have anyone, even Brad Nelson, on the team then see someone of Gamel's caliber waste away. They had a plan. The plan was to remove Nelson from the team and their plan was successful. Then why not bring up Jeffress to replace Julio and only pitch once every two weeks. Escobar's better than Iribarren, why not bring him up to sit the bench behind the McGehee/Counsell platoon? If "the plan" is to misuse a top prospect simply to rid the team of a bench player, then why not go all out? There are plenty of players in the minor leagues who are better than bench players in the majors. It just seems to me to be a mistake to hamper their development simply for two or three at-bats per week.

Thanks for the list. As you menioned, I think the Brewers are going to really try to keep Gamel at 3B, or they would have moved him while he was in the minors. He could be moved later, but I think they're going to give him every shot at third, and there is also the possibility that he's moved to 1B when Prince is gone. Also, I hope Lawrie sticks at 2B, where he can be fast-tracked to Milwaukee. I thought Cain was our CF of the future and I'm not sure who Dennis is. I, too hope that Gindl can be a good MLB player in the future, and he may well be Hart's ulitmate replacement, but how far away is the future? Since this thread is about Cole, what I think is the most important question is "what type numbers does he project to post at the major league level?" If he is a low-.700s OPS corner OF with a noodle arm, he shouldn't be in the picture. If he's a high-.700s to mid-.800s OPS corner OF with an average LF arm, he could play a role in the Brewers' future. If the latter is true, I have some questions / scenarios as to why I think Gillespie could play a role. One thing we are pretty sure of is that we will lose Cameron after this year. If Cain is not ready to man center next year, would you: 1) Play Hart in CF and if so who would be your corner OF opposite Braun 2) Play Gwynn / Duffy / Bourgeois as a stopgap CF with Braun / Hart at the corners 3) Sign a FA / make a trade 4) Something else Also, there's a chance that Hart's 2007 (.892 OPS) season was somewhat of a fluke (or pitchers figured him out) and he's really a .750-.800 OPS guy. He had a .759 OPS last year and is currently hitting at a .727 OPS clip in a limited number of ABs (145). I hope he finds his 2007 form, but if not, could Gillespie put up these type of numbers for far less money than Hart? If Hart ends this season with a .759 OPS like he did last year, and is due to be paid around $4-5MM in his second year of arby, what should we do? Finally, Hart could have another .900ish OPS season, and Melvin could get offered a good trade for him. If we're offered a good young arm for Hart this offseason, should we trade him, and if so, who should be our OF? I think the likely scenario is that Cain's ready to step in as a starting CF / leadoff hitter and Hart and Braun man the corners. I see Gillespie as a 4th OF in our organization who gives us some options as some of these questions are answered. It's nice to have someone like him there for the "just in case" scenarios.

The biggest issue with that is the Brewers need to find 3 pitchers for 2011 and finding 3 pitchers either through trade or free agency while replacing Hardy makes it a really tough to keep Fielder and Hart through their last year. Now a World Series win changes a lot of things and maybe someone pitching in AAA, but right now 2011 looks to be tough Which makes signing Bush to a 2-3 year extension look a little more appealing. I'm glad Prince signed the 2 year deal, as we really don't have a replacement for him at this time. I do agree with everyone that it's extremely unlikely he'll be here through his three arby years, and basically no chance he'll be here beyond that. Locking up Yo is #1 priority. I'm more hesitant on Parra, but he should be looked at for the reason endaround stated... we don't have much pitching depth beyond next year. The trend of locking up pre-arby players long-term started just too late for our current class, so players like Hardy may be too far along to buy out any free agency. Hart and Weeks could possibly be bought, but do we want to take the risk on them? It is much more likely to affect our next group of stars. Braun's deal is done, Yo should get a deal soon, Gamel will probably get one next year, the winner of Salome/Lucroy and Lawrie will get a deal in a few years, etc. While there is a lot of risk in signing players to "Braun-type" deals, it's a trend I like, as it will help smaller markets keep their stars for a longer time. It can hurt a franchise if the GM guesses wrong, so I hope Melvin knows what he's doing.

He's a fine player and great depth, but corner OF spots is not a weakness in this organization, and there are some elite talents that are ahead of him on the depth chart. Braun will hopefully be a stud here for a long time. Hart is currently under Brewers' control for another two years (through 2011), and there is no doubt he is "the man" as long as he's here. There has been speculation that he could be moved for starting pitching, leaving a hole, or he could move to CF if Cain is not ready next year, unless Gwynn or Duffy mans the spot, which probably isn't high on a lot of people's list. There is also always the possibility of injury. That said, beyond the Brewers' starters, who do you classify as our "elite talent?" On the Power 50, the only corner OF ahead of Gillespie is Caleb Gindle, who's 20 in high-A ball. Brendan Katin and Jason Bourgeois are the other AAA options, and neither seem to be too highly regarded. I agree that Gillespie shouldn't be put in the same category as Gamel, Braun or Fielder, but there are few players who are in that category (at least offensively), so it's unfair to compare him to our superstars. The real question is whether or not Gillespie has major league talent. When I look at the minor leaguers, I try to envision how they will one day help the Brewers. On that note, I wonder if we have corner outfield talent that would allow Hart to either be traded or moved to center field next year? Hart is a good player, but not irreplaceable. He'll likely be making around $5MM next year, which is not terribly high, but we are still on a budget. I'm fine with Hart as our RF next year, and he'd likely post an OPS in the .800 range. If we could trade him for another position of need, and Gillespie could post an OBP heavy .750-.850 OPS while making league minimum, than that option would have to be weighed. Again, the question is whether he'd be able to do that.

From MiLB.com 2006 Highlights: Led the Pioneer League in on-base pct. (.464). ... Finished second in the league in batting average (.344) and fourth in walks (40). ... Named the Best Strike-zone Discipline by Baseball America. ... Named the 11th-best prospect in the Pioneer League by Baseball America. 2007 Highlights: Selected as a FSL Midseason All-Star. ... Spent the entire season at Class A Advanced Brevard County and hit .267 with three homers and 62 RBIs in 129 games. ... Named the FSL Player of the Week for May 14-20. ... Named the sixth-best prospect in the Brewers organization by Baseball America. 2008 stats: .281 avg, .286 OBP, .472 Slg, .858 OPS, 17 SB, 1 CS I'll readily admit that I don't study minor league stats nearly as much as some here. Maybe that's a fringe prospect, but it looks to me like he has some potential. Very few players in MLB hit like Braun and Prince. What numbers do the other 95% of major league hitters (the non-superstars) put up when they're in AA?

Escobar's starting at 2B tonight in Nashville

I agree that mistakes in the outfield hurt, probably more than mistakes in the infield. However, everyone occasionally misjudges a play and lets one through. Would you say that Braun dives and misses balls more often than an average left fielder? I'm not a proponent of moving players around to different positions, but I've been pleasantly surprised by how well Braun has adjusted to a position he'd never played. By no means is he an elite fielder, but I agree with the poster that said the bar for LFs is set pretty low. Braun is at least an average fielder at this point, with the potential to become pretty good.

I guess the best analogy for me is this: If I lose a $20 bill, it won't cripple me. I'll be fine and I probably won't miss it much. However, I don't plan on throwing $20 bills away simply because losing one won't hurt me. Nelson has some value. In the grand scheme of things, his loss probably won't cripple the Brewers. However, throwing him away for no reason seems silly. Losing him may have some effect on the Brewers this year, as we have no idea how the season will play out. We now have foregone the possibility that he may heat up and win us a game or two. We have also lost the future value of Nelson. Six years at near-league-minimum pay for a decent LH bat has some value. Maybe we'll have better options, maybe not. Again, we don't know how the future will play out, and we just gave away some value for nothing. As far as Iribarren, I see your point. He's hit some and plays better defense than Nelson. Fine. Call him up as the backup that will sit on the bench and not play. At least I see some logic there... Nelson isn't cutting it in a pinch hitting role, so we'll call up someone who's similar but has a hotter bat at the moment. I still wouldn't want to lose Nelson over this move, but it shows some thought. Bringing up Gamel so that he can sit on the bench doesn't make sense to me. I would think he'd be better off hitting and playing the field every day in Nashville. While at the time of the move, Melvin had no way of knowing that Weeks would get hurt, but the injury shows why it wasn't a good move. We've now thrown Nelson away when we could have kept him if we'd have waited another week. The only way this makes sense is if Melvin doesn't believe Nelson has any value, but that can't be the case, as we've held on to him for eight years.

I agree, JJ. Gamel got one PA in a week before his start yesterday. I don't think keeping Nelson for that week and leeting Gamel play full-time in AAA would've been a bad idea. I don't see Nelson as much more than a decent bat off the bench and LH relief for the occasional day Braun or Hart need a rest, but why get rid of him for nothing when we had him cheap for the next six years. Right now, if Hart or Braun go down with an injury Duffy will play every day. How's that effect our playoff chances? Cattalanato (? sp) may be ready soon. It's debateable whether he'll be a better option than Nelson right now, but he has no future value. Currently our best hitters in AAA are Gwynn and Bourgeois, as Gillespie and Katin aren't doing much right now. I guess my point is that after waiting eight or so years for Nelson to heal up and return to form, we gave him up for nothing for no apparent reason other than a slow start. I would guess that at some point in the next six years we'll wish we had a LH bat with some power on the bench. Again, he's not a star, and this probably won't bite us too much, but I just don't see the logic behind making the move at this time.

For some reason, I only got the St Louis feed of one game this weekend, and although I was expecting the worst, I actually thought they were pretty respectful of the Brewers. They did a sit down interview with Hoffman before the game, went on and on about what a great person and knowledgeable pitcher Suppan is. Of Braun, they said he was the type that got better if the opposing fans booed him (Al likened him to himself in this regard). They said most players melt under that type of pressure, but some revel in it. They also explained the reason the Brewers untuck their shirts and said something to the effect of "some people take it as showing up the other team." I kind of enjoyed the broadcast. Of course fans on both sides are going to blow everything out of proportion... that's what a rivalry is all about, right?

So what's the over/under on how many at-bats Hernan will see over the next two weeks. Judging by the way Macha's used Corporan, Swindle and even Gamel, my guess is two.

Is this going to be permanent or something that will heal over time? I've kind of hoped that Gillespie would be the guy that would allow the Brewers to trade Hart at some point. I hope he bounces back quickly and gives the Brewers some options this off-season

With Heether now at AAA and Vinny Rottino posting a .675 OPS in AA, I'd guess Green will be manning 3B at Huntsville soon. I don't see anyone at Brevard County that would keep Green from jumping to AA as soon as the Brewers are comfortable making the move. Also, the injury can't be slowing him down too much... he's got a 1.397 OPS in his first four games in Appleton.

I had never heard much if anything about 30-year old Mike Burns, and he's tearing up AAA. Granted it's only seven starts, but he's 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 31 K and only 8 BB in 43.2 innings. Last year with the Iowa Cubs, he was a PCL mid-season All Star with 101 K and 24 BB in 133 innings, being used as both a starter and a reliever. It looks like he got a couple "cups of coffee" in the majors in '05 & '06 for the Reds, Red Sox and Astros, but nothing since then. That's about everything I know about him, so if anyone knows more, I'd be interested. Is he another "late bloomer" like DiFelice that could help us out at the major league level? Was he just blocked last year with the Cubs, or is there something that makes him a career minor leaguer?

Melvin has given him some respect... isn't this the guy we got back in the Gabe Gross trade? For that reason alone, I hope we get some major league service out of him.

To re-hijack this thread back to Gallardo. In a move that will "look to the future," how much will it take to lock him up long term? He should be targeted to get the next Braun-style deal, so that he can be our ace for the next seven or so seasons. Wasn't Braun something like 7 years, $42MM? Would that get it done for Gallardo?

I agree that Nelson is pressing, and will snap out of it. I just hope he gets his first hit soon to get that monkey off his back. As frustrating as it's been, it's still way too early to give up on someone who's shown that he can be a good hitter. As far as Edmonds, I'd guess that he's waiting for an injury to occur. Right now, he'd have to play a backup role, but if a starter goes down somewhere, Edmonds would likely be an upgrade to most teams' backups. Staying on the market until someone gets hurt gives him the best chance to become a starter.

Congrats to Carlos. I, too, hope that he's able to start at least one game while he's up. If he truly is a defense first catcher, I wouldn't think his bat could be that much worse then Kendall's at this point. As far as those that thought we'd go with one catcher, and McGehee as his backup, that would leave us with no right handed bats off the bench, as McGehee woud have to be the last guy off the bench. Now we at least have one righty pinch-hitter. Blanco was pretty atrocious offensively when we had him but I believe brought his hitting up a bit the past five years or so ago. Beyond this year, you wonder what the near future holds for the Brewers. Do we try to sign Kendall for another year as the starter? Does he accept being a backup in Milwaukee? Does Rivera get a chance to start? Is a good year by Salome in AAA give him the starting nod next year? Is Lucroy the guy we are waiting on and thus need another year of a stopgap? Good question, and it's a good thing to have some talented catchers in the system. I'd think the 2010 starting catcher job is Salome's to lose at this point, with Rivera as his backup. If Kendall is hitting in the low .200's and Salome proves he can play defense, I think there's a chance Salome could even be brought up later this year, much like Soto for the Cubs two years ago. 2011 we could have Lucroy and Salome on some sort of 3/2 split. I'd guess someone would be dealt at some point if they both prove they can play.

I hope that Macha will continue to use Coffey and Villanueva in multiple inning roles starting in the 6th inning if necessary. I hope he doesn't do it too much before Hoffman comes back. We're off tomorrow, which makes it more palatable that Coffey went 2 2/3 innings. Otherwise, we can't be without one of the the two guys (along with DiFelice) who has been dependable because he's pitching multiple innings. When Hoffman's back, we should have several guys (DiFelice, Coffey, Villy and McClung) that can go more than one inning when necessary.

Getting back to the offense, is 4 PAs a week going to be the difference in the offense? I don't see how 4 extra PAs for River is going to make up a for Braun, Fielder, and Hardy not getting the job done. Once those 3 start hitting, we'll feel much better about the offense. I'm not against the idea of Rivera getting more PAs, I just think the impact would be minimal. I get your point, but by that logic, starting Duffy or Gwynn over Braun once / week or Nelson over Fielder once / week wouldn't matter, as it's only 4 extra PAs/week. Going from starting 20% of the games to starting 40% of the games is significant. Braun, Prince and Hardy heating up is the key to our offense, but we need help any way we can get it. Assuming 4 pitches per plate appearance, we are talking about 1 extra fastball every 6 PA. As is often the case, what baseball accepts as common wisdom doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Aggregate stats don't always stand up in individual situations. I think rather than saying #2 vs. #5, I'd look at how pitchers throw to batters when they know the next two batters are capable of hitting 50 HRs in a season. Not many teams have that 3/4 punch, so the current Brewers situation is different than most teams. There of course have been other teams that would have a comperable makeup, so it would make more sense (although it would be much more difficult to find) to compare #2 hitters on the current Brewers to #2 hitters on historical teams that have had two 40+ HR guys in the 3/4 slots. I believe pitchers throw them differently because I've heard a lot of retired pitchers and catchers say that they threw them differently. Who would know better how a pithcer thinks then the pitcher himself?

I agree on the Rivera front as well. He should get at least 2/5 of the starts

brewtown82 wrote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- monty57 wrote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I don't think today's game is a good one to give Macha credit for. why? Even if it didn't work, you're better off pitching Coffey there then letting DiFelice give up the game. Ultimately, its the players that get it done, I just think that the strategic shift from defined "roles" for relievers to using the best for the situation is better. As others have said, leaving Suppan in to hit when he led off the inning and was over 95 pitches and was lucky to get out of the previous inning was not a good move. He gave up a hit that got us into the situation you're lauding. I have nothing against bringing in Coffey when he did, and actually I think that was a good move. Then, Coffey was lucky to get out of the 8th and he was allowed to hit and brought back out in the 9th. He's pitched very well this year, but we're not talking about Mariano Rivera here. If he gave up the tying run in the 9th, people would've been calling for Macha's head. I do like them bringing in the best reliever in the highest leverage situation and letting him go. This church of the closer stuff is overrated. Put your best reliever in the highest leverage spot in the 7-9 innings. If 3-4-5 are up in a close game with 2 on in the 7th...why would you let your all-star closer sit in the pen? Especially one that K's people. Not that we have that right now....more of a MLB issue in general. If a manager puts his closer in in the 7th and the closer doesn't perform, everyone will say "the closer was put in a position he wasn't used to," and the manager will take a lot of heat. If the closer performs and gets out of the tight spot, then the game goes into the ninth with a one-run lead. The closer has been burned, so the manager turns to another reliever, who loses the game. The manager takes a lot of heat. Do this enough and the manager is fired. Also, "closers" get paid a lot more than all other relievers. If a manager eliminates the "closer" role, his best reliever(s) will be very upset with him, as that manager has cost the reliever(s) a ton of money. Finally, most closers have a set routine. Many times, they won't even go to the pen until mid-game. Many of them get massages during the game, sit in the hot tub, etc. Baseball players are ritualistic. If you break that ritual, it may not have good results. Not saying these reasons justify not bringing in your best reliever when he would be the most useful, but it's probably why they don't.

I didn't like the switch when Macha made it, especially since he decided to do it with only a game or two left in spring training, when Hart & Hardy were both hitting well. That said, Hart is doing very well in the #2 spot, with a .943 OPS, and walking 1 out of every 5 ABs vs. 1 out of every 22 ABs last year. I wouldn't want to do anything to change what he's doing right now. I would consider a temporary change in the order for Cameron and Hardy. Hardy will come around, but right now Cameron is Milwaukee's hottest bat (1.133 OPS) and Hardy's argueably their coldest (.403 OPS) One of the other problems I see with the lineup is that Cameron and Hall are hitting in front of two almost sure outs at this point. So we have the number 1 or 2 hitter getting on and the 3,4 and 5 hitters stranding them or the 6 or 7 hitters getting on with 8 and 9 stranding them. Nsimps, that's a good point regarding the current order. We need to do something to wake up the offense, and outside of bringing up Gamel (who would replace the Hall who's playing well), I don't see any major moves that could or should be made. Switching Cameron & Hardy isn't anything huge, but maybe it would be the kick in the pants the players need.