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wntrtxn21

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Everything posted by wntrtxn21

  1. wntrtxn21
    Rodgers still a prospect and not proven like Hiura. Hampson offers very little more than Arcia. Freeland a little better away from home, but still terrible. Davis has a huge salary and not much else. No thanks. Getting an unproven prospect, a huge paycheck reliever, a guy who wouldn't make the starting rotation, and a bench guy is not even close to value for Hiura.
  2. wntrtxn21
    I think Nelson is already making $3.7M so his arby number may be higher. I'm not sure Claudio is a fit with the new 3 batter rule. I think Pina stays no matter what. Freitas is not an option for anything buy AAA again. CC didn't trust him to catch even one inning when Pina got hurt. Nottingham may be the backup catcher if Stearns can't re-sign Grandal. I really agree on Anderson. I think he's going to be too pricey for a 4 inning pitcher. If they trade him the return, like you said, won't be much. I still don't see Austin as anything even after re-reading the rookie scouting report. Obviously the report was wrong. Austin's last 3 years: .225/.283 (small sample) - .236/.294 - .188/.296....I would rather see Stearns sign a vet at $1.5-2M range who can play 1B and pinch hit.
  3. wntrtxn21
    Would it be better to see what Nottingham could do as Pina's backup? Flowers is a nice backup, but if Pina is going to be the starter, I believe Nottingham deserves a look as the part-time catcher.
  4. wntrtxn21
    Gomes isn't much with the bat. I think Pina offers more and at a lot less money.
  5. wntrtxn21
    Huge problem! Navarez is one of, if not the worst defensive catchers (-30) in all baseball. Plus Stearns would have offer big prospects to get him. He is really a DH who catches.
  6. wntrtxn21
    You might be looking at the right team but perhaps the wrong guy. Angels like Simmons (a lot, they dealt to get him). They would be looking for a lot to deal him. But they have salary tied up in another player that is coming back from a shoulder issue and is also a FA after 2020. Zack Cozart might be a buy low candidate where the Angels even eat some salary in the deal (he is set to get $12.67M).. The Angels moved him over to 3B when they signed him but he has struggled huge in the AL. Perhaps a move back to the NL (& SS) would be a boost for his performance.. Maybe a change of scenery for both him and Shaw would work. Just a spitball thought... I agree, Simmons and his $15M contract is far too much for the Brewers to spend on SS. Cozart is coming off two horrendous years and has a huge contract for 2020. If the Angels were willing to eat about $10M he would be a candidate for the bench and backup SS.
  7. wntrtxn21
    Taylor is an interesting option. Had not thought about him. If they were willing to trade him, I hope the Brewers would be interested in Chris Taylor. His ceiling might not be particularly high, but he seems like a safe bet to offer solid production. I think his presence as a good right-handed bat would help stabilize the lineup. Also, Taylor is an example of how the Dodgers’ emphasis on developing defensive versatility over the past 5 years has really paid off. Players like Taylor are seemingly far more valuable in the context of being able to adequately cover 3-4 different positions with regularity. Taylor is an OF who can play infield if needed. Versatile, but it looks like his arby value number is going to be around $5M. With Stearns looking for money to re-sign Moose, Grandal, Lyles, Pomeranz, etc... I think Tayor is going to be too expensive for the Brewers for a bench player.
  8. wntrtxn21
    When runners are on base, there is a better chance of moving runners if the ball is put in play. That doesn't happen with strikeouts. However, a K is better than a double play... A strikeout is better than a double play, unless the DP scores the eventual winning run. There are 9 possible position errors that can happen with a ball put in play. One if the batter Ks. A whiff never scored a runner from 3B unless there's a WP or PB. A ball hit on the ground with the infield back usually scores a run. A long fly ball could advance a runner on 2B to 3B. A ball hit on the ground to the left side could advance a runner on 2B to 3B. A whiff advances the hitter to the bench. A strikeout is the worst type of out that can be made other than a DP ball. Ask anybody who ever pitched and see if he would rather face a guy in a crucial situation that whiffs a ton or a guy who puts the ball in play nearly every time.
  9. wntrtxn21
    I'd agree. At this point, if the Orioles non-tender Villar, and he wants to come to Milwaukee on a cheap one-year deal, I'd take him if it was no more than $2 million. But at this point, someone like Cesar Hernandez would be a better option. Comes cheap, especially if non-tendered, no baggage from a bad relationship with Counsell, and provides excellent OBP skills. Hernandez would not come cheap. He's already making $7.75M and very likely will get an increase on that, even if the Phils trade him.
  10. wntrtxn21
    I would, because Lux is likely to provide more surplus value over the next six years than Hader will over the next four. 3,600 plate appearances + 7,500 innings in the field give a player much more opportunity to add value than do 300 of even the highest leverage relief innings. Lux is just as likely to provide LESS "surplus value" because he is not much of a SS, and he still is an unproven prospect. His value to the Brewers would be as a SS, and as many have already said, his best position is 2B where the Brewers have Hiura. Plus he has yet to see the big leagues and could equally be a Brinson type bust.
  11. wntrtxn21
    No thanks on Navarez. First Stearns would have to part with some high prospects to get him thus almost gutting an already weak farm system. Plus Navarez is one of, if not the worst defensive catchers (-30) in MLB. Austin is a .188 hitter, and .228 against lefties. I can't see any way he makes the roster. Shaw is going to make too much to be a bench player. I think they try and trade him and add a lower cost infielder, or use the money saved for a SS and use Arcia as a backup. Gibson would cost too much ($11-12M) for a below average pitcher. I would much rather re-sign Lyles at 1/2 the price. Imo CC would not keep a 6-man bench, but would almost certainly carry an 8-man bullpen. Lots of options for the 8th spot.
  12. wntrtxn21
    Imo Gyoko wouldn't be an option. He hit .174/.248 and getting worse. I'd try and re-sign Perez for $1M and look at Neil Walker for $2M. He would eliminate the need for Thames thus saving money. Spangenberg, Perez, Walker, Grishom, Maldy is the bench. I don't think Faria, based on his horrible numbers (11.47 ERA-7.94 FIP-2.6 WHIP-18 hits per 9 IPs), is retained by Stearns. He's beyond horrible. Black-D. Williams-Feyereisen all have much more upside than Faria. Lyles would be cheap at $3m and I think it's going to be closer to $5-6M to re-sign him. After the year Kendrick had, even at his age, he may get more than $5M. I seriously doubt Stearns has a shot at Cole, but I like your thinking.
  13. wntrtxn21
    Surplus value is meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Lux has potential. Hader is a proven all-star. There are lots of examples where "high surplus value" prospects didn't pan out in the big leagues. The Brewers have had their fair share of such prospects. Until Lux proves he is of MLB caliber, Hader remains more valuable, especially to the Dodgers who already have Seagers.
  14. wntrtxn21
    Absolutely correct! Desmond is way over paid for a .255/.310 hitter. I'm not sure the Brewers would consider him even if the Rockies picked up most of the $25M he'll make in 2020-2021.
  15. wntrtxn21
    Imo Stearns re-signs both Moustakas and Pomeranz if he could get them for your numbers. They would be worth every dollar. The Brewers have nobody else at 3B other than Moose. They can't roll the dice with Shaw based on his horrendous 2019. Pomeranz is a late inning reliever who was outstanding for the Crew. $5M is not overpaying for him. Grandal, if he signs for anything more than $16-17 per on a multi-year deal is too expensive for the Brewers.
  16. wntrtxn21
    The problem with your scenario is that you've given up on the next 2-3 years and don't know if any of the 3 will turn out to be MLB caliber players. IF Stearns isn't going to re-sign Moose or Grandal, then I might be in favor of your trade.
  17. wntrtxn21
    If you add the Angels, you have to add the Mets as well. The Mets have DeGrom and Thor... and Cole would make a nice upgrade over Wheeler. The Mets also get out from under the Lagares and Frazier contracts this offseason. That combines for about $24 million. They get out from under the Lowrie and Cespedes deals at the end of 2020. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/new-york-mets-salaries-and-contracts.shtml Gerrit Cole joining DeGrom and Thor lets the Mets match the Nationals rotation - or even exceed it if Strasburg opts out. From what Mets blogs have been saying they are looking for outfield help more than SP. They may re-sign Wheeler if the price doesn't get too blown up and look to FA for outfielders. They also have a couple of power arms coming up to go along with Thor and DeGrom.
  18. wntrtxn21
    While I normally very much agree with opinion, the fact that the Dodgers lost is dramatic fashion last night due to their bullpen will definitely have them making changes in the offseason. As someone said a few posts ago, Hader is much more valuable to a team like the Dodgers than a team like the Giants. A player like Hader in Dodger stadium is a Chapman type acquisition. If they come calling, Stearns should listen and see what can be pried away. If they dangled Lux and May, I would hope there would be a conversation there. Resign Moose, Lux and SS, Keston at 2b, Thames/Braun at first is a pretty darn good infield. RP like Hader are not a dime a dozen, but if Stearns wants to consistently push for the playoffs, this might be the best way to go about it. I agree ... last night's pen implosion from the Dodgers is going to have them in a panic to make major upgrades in the pen. Hader is one of the most electric pen arms out there. The move makes a lot of sense, which means it's likely to not happen. But if the Dodgers dangled a couple players like Lux, Seager, May or Will Smith for Hader, Stearns would have to listen. Lux and Seager are basically the same player. I could see the Dodgers moving one of them in a pkg for Hader. I don't know if May who has a high ceiling, would be in the deal though. Lux and Smith would get Stearns thinking.
  19. wntrtxn21
    I think you are way low on what Wheeler and Odorizzi will probably get. Wheeler will probably get in the $18-21M range, and Odorizzi will too. d'Arnaud made $3.5M this year so it's very,very unlikely he'll take a 30% pay cut to sign with the Brewers. At $12M Smith is too costly. Hader and Pomeranz and Suter will be the lefties. They can better use the money on a starter. You've got an interesting bull pen, but I don't see any way in the world Burnes makes the MLB roster. Knebel, Wahl, Black, and Guerra are all ahead of Burnes. I forgot about Feyereisen. Good call!
  20. wntrtxn21
    Anderson-- look for a trading partner or NON-tender. Too much for a 4 inning guy. Put the $8.5 towards a SS or another starter Nelson-- he's already making $3.7M from what I see, so the price would be a bit higher. He showed enough to bring back at about $4M. Perez-- NON-tender. Let him look, but there were no takers last year at a lesser price so I don't see much interest in him. Bring him back at $1M or so. Possible minor lg. deal too. Knebel-- already making the $5.125 so it will be interesting what he gets. Definate tender. Claudio-- very iffy. With the new 3 batter rule it makes him a lot less effective. It probably depends on Stearns re-signing Pomeranz. If Pomeranz re-signs, then NON-tender. Shaw-- look to trade him for anything. Again depends on re-signing Moose. If Moose re-signs, then a definate NON-tender if they can't trade him. Pina, Spangenberg, Davies, Guerra--- Tender them all. Saladino-- bye-bye Arcia--tender, but look for his replacement and use in a trade. Gamel-- depends on how they feel about Grisham and on the new rule about how many pitchers can be on the 26 man roster. It could go either way. Austin--NON-tender. Guys like him are a-dime-a-dozen and can be easily aquired at a low price. Suter-- a no-brainer, but he may get $1M+....
  21. wntrtxn21
    I'd have no problem giving up Corey Ray who has been a complete bust at AAA last year. His stock is sinking fast. Ashby is a decent prospect that I'd be willing to move for Ray IF Stearns re-signs Grandal-Moustakas-Pomeranz. Ray would be a very nice addition to the rotation at a price around $9-10M and give them a much better chance of winning. W/o re-signing those three it makes little sense to give up Ashby.
  22. wntrtxn21
    Adding another $12.5 to the payroll just doesn't fly unless MA is going to totally blow up the payroll. Grandal and Mouse are high priorites along with Lyles and Pomeranz who are much needed re-signs. Plus the arby guys are all going to make more. I don't think Stearns can make the move on Yelich w/o sacrificing the other positions that need improving in order for the Brewers to be serious contenders next year.
  23. wntrtxn21
    Also sign Starlin Castro as a 1B/3B RHB I'm a little leery of the cost for Castro. He made $12M last year. I don't think the Marlins give him the $16M option, but he may be too expensive for a bench player. I like Neil Walker for around $2.5M. SW who plays 1B-3B and can fill in at 2B if needed.
  24. wntrtxn21
    It is quite a large difference and Grandal did it while playing every day basically. I love Pina....as a backup. I think he's a perfect backup which means having a great starter is very valuable cause you never feel like you're missing a beat. I don't trust Pina's OPS to hold up that well if he's starting every day and I also don't expect him to play as much as Yaz which means our backup gets more time and we don't even really have a great option there either. I think Pina has basically proven that he's a solid backup .. perhaps one of if not the best backup catchers in the league. But he wears down when depended on for a near everyday role. I think that if Grandal is not resigned, you at least have to find a platoon mate that can do a 50/50 playing time split with Pina. i don't know if they'd be willing to hand that role to Nottingham or Freitas. I think you got your answer about Freitas and Nottingham this year when Pina got hurt. They think so little of Freitas they didn't trust him to catch even one inning. If they bring him back it will be as the AAA catcher again. Nottingham was used strictly in mopup duty and then only twice. If Stearns decides not to re-sign Grandal, he'll look outside the farm to find another catcher.
  25. wntrtxn21
    Boy are you right! The 15 day thing is huge to teams like the Brewers who used the 10 day call-back option liberally. Plus I think they are still working on the total number of pitchers (13/14) allowed on the 26 man roster. The LOOGY is dead with the new 3 batter minimum which effects guys like Claudio. No matter what I think Stearns has to look at getting more/better starting pitching.
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