brewerfan82

This is incorrect: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/christian-yelich-14316/

Agree to disagree I guess :)

Hope this doesn't completely derail the topic, but... my understanding is that if the Dodgers had given Ohtani a traditional contract that paid out equally over 10 years, it would have been for the $46M per year that the luxury tax is penalizing them for. Essentially a $460M contract distributed equally over 10 years is equal to a $700M contract distributed the way the Dodgers are paying Ohtani over the next 20 years. So any team able to pay him a $460M deal over 10 years would have been able to do the same thing the Dodgers are doing. If $700M severely backloaded over 20 years equals $460M over 10 years, then they shouldn't be penalized further than $46M per year just because they structured the same amount of money differently. If luxury tax wasn't adjusted for present day value, then you risk teams actually being able to skirt the luxury tax by severely frontloading contracts instead (ie. giving Ohtani $300M or whatever upfront over 10 years instead and only being penalize $30M against the luxury tax each year).

I'm for making progress towards a more equal playing field (more revenue sharing, incentives for exceeding a lower payroll threshold and punishments for exceeding a higher payroll threshold, etc.) and when I was half my age it really bothered me that the Yankees could buy their way to the World Series (making it there 6 out of 8 years in the late 90's early '00s) while the Brewers were being run by the Seligs on a nickel and a dime. But over the next 20 years, seeing other small market teams like the A's, Royals, and Rays (and eventually our own Brewers) have stretches of success despite all the disadvantages built into the system became a bigger and bigger source of hope. And the closer we've gotten to the World Series, the more pride I've had as a fan that our organization could actually compete and outsmart the bigger market teams. The odds are certainly stacked against us, but we've had a really fun stretch of baseball and part of that is because it's so unexpected considering how the system is currently setup (and how dreadfully awful we were for such a long time). So while I'm not opposed to new measures to even the playing field, it would be so so sweet to get a championship under our belt while things are still stacked against us. Being an underdog has become part of being a Brewer fan and if we don't get that championship until all teams are playing with equal payrolls, it'll take a little shine off that trophy. That being said, it would only be A LITTLE shine lost, I'll definitely take that championship anyway we can get it! :) #gobrewcrew!

I don't think this gives any real indication one way or the other on whether or not they anticipate trading either player before the season begins. If anything, after what happened with Burnes last year, I might think they'd be more motivated to keep good will and come to an agreement if they planned on keeping them. If they're trading them anyways, then go to arbitration and do the dirty work to fight with them for as low a salary as possible to maximize their value to other teams. But really, I don't think it means anything in this respect, it's just easy to come up with reasons for it to mean whatever you want it to either way.

I realllly wish we could get those guys at those prices. Unfortunately, I think you are underestimating what it's going to take to get them, especially Chapman. MLB Trade Rumors (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html - has Hoskins at 2 yrs/$36M and Chapman at 6 yrs/$150M) and FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker - has Hoskins at 1 yr/$14M and Chapman at 4 yrs/$80M) are good places to get an idea of what guys might be going for. I don't think Chapman's getting anything near 6 yrs/$150M, but he's likely still out of our range. Hoskins is a more realistic get, but I also think the estimates on him are likely on the low end of what he may end up getting. I like the thought though!

Part of the issue with this discussion is no one knows what it's going to take to get him. Depending on how a 4/$55M contract is structured (opt outs, front loaded or not, etc) it could work for both parties, but we have no idea what he's looking for right now, what other teams are willing to give him, or what the Brewers may or may not currently have on the table. The consistent complaining about how the team is approaching this offseason when the players you want them to target are still available seems a bit premature. It'll be a more interesting discussion, backed with some more meaningful information, once we see where Chapman and Hoskins go and what their contracts look like. Even then we're not likely to know exactly how hard the Brewers went after either player (assuming they don't get either). Regardless, it'd be nice to start a new topic to discuss this instead of bringing it up in threads about signing a minor league player that has absolutely nothing to do with it.

"Hope" is giving a 4-5 year contract to a player entering his age 31 season when he hasn't played in over a year due to a torn ACL that required surgery to repair and hoping everything goes alright.

Piggybacking on @sveumrules post, looking at last year's wRC+ and fWARs compared to Steamer's '24 projections, here are some places we could see some improvement... Exciting Possible Rookie Debuts (projections only): Jackson Chourio (#1 Brewers prospect, #2 MLB) - proj. 93 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 524 PAs) Tyler Black (#4 Brewers prospect, #51 MLB) - proj. 104 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 381 PAs) Jeferson Quero (#2 Brewers prospect, #32 MLB) - Insignificant projection (1 PA), but could be a wildcard this year as well (wRC+ of 148, 111, 134, and 107 in the minors) Also possible debuts by pitchers Jacob Misiorowski (#3 Brewers prospect, #36 MLB), Robert Gasser (#5 Brewers prospect), Carlos F. Rodriguez (#6 Brewers prospect) Young Players Continuing to Develop and Gaining Larger Roles: Sal Frelick - proj. 103 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR, 583 PAs (2023: 92 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 223 PAs) Joey Wiemer - proj. 88 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, 245 PAs (2023: 75 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR, 410 PAs) - If you believe in his defense, that will propel his proj. fWAR much higher as currently it's projecting below average defense from him Garrett Mitchell - proj. 88 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 310 PAs (2023: 103 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR, 73 PAs) - Another guy I could easily see outperforming his projections Brice Turang - proj. 88 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 484 PAs (2023: 60 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, 448 PAs) Aaron Ashby - proj. 3.70 FIP, 1.3 fWAR, 82.0 IP - Another big wildcard this year. If he returns to health, he could more than makeup for the loss of Houser Abner Uribe - proj. 3.67 FIP, 0.6 fWAR, 60 IP (2023: 2.77 FIP, 0.6 fWAR, 30.2 IP) - Another modest projection for a guy that looked filthy last year Bounceback Candidate (if he's still on the team): Willy Adames - proj. 103 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR, 654 ABs (2023: 94 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR, 638 PAs) - A return to his 2021/22 self (114 wRC+, 7.9 combined fWAR) at age 28 isn't an unreasonable possibility Addition by Subtraction (we had some miserable performances last year): Rowdy Tellez - 78 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR in 351 PAs Jesse Winker - 65 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR in 197 PAs Mike Brosseau, Luke Voit, Jon Singleton, and Raimel Tapia impressively combined for a -1.6 fWAR while accounting for 245 PAs Eric Lauer - 5.58 xFIP, -0.8 fWAR in 46.2 IP Matt Bush - 4.98 xFIP, -0.7 fWAR in 10.1 IP New Players Still to Come Still a lot of time left in the offseason! 30 of 55 FAs proj. for at least a 1.0 fWAR are still available (incl. bigger name guys like Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga, Chapman, Stroman, and Bellinger, and maybe more in our range guys like Rosario, Paxton, Hoskins, Soler, Ryu, Tim Anderson, Bauer, Pederson, Teoscar Hernandez, Lorenzen, Urshela, and Pham). The Brewers have already signed 2 of the 25 players signed in this group to this point (Miley and Rea, each proj. for 1.3 fWAR) 40 of 55 FAs proj. between 0.5 and 0.9 fWAR are still available. The Brewers have signed 1 of the 15 players signed in this group so far (Ross proj. for 0.8 fWAR) 71 of 107 FAs proj. between 0.1 and 0.4 fWAR are still available. The Brewers have signed 2 of the 36 players signed in this group so far (Nola and Haase, each proj. for 0.1 fWAR) And endless possibilities in the trade market

On the surface, I like it as a depth move. From 2019-2022, he had a wRC+ of 105 (8th of 23 qualified catchers) before falling off a cliff last year. According to MLBTR (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/brewers-sign-austin-nola-to-minor-league-deal.html), "Nola discussed his offensive woes back in September, revealing that he had been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement and comes with symptoms such as fogginess and headaches." A quick Google search makes it sound like there are vision therapy treatments. So hopefully it's something he can treat moving forward and will bounce back from now that it's diagnosed. Regardless, it's a nice low-risk pickup for some depth and we'll see how he's looking in the Spring!

I'm not optimistic that Hoskins will happen (just too many teams are interested, which makes the odds low), but I think it's the splashiest move that is reasonably capable of happening still too (outside of some sort of trade acquisition). $16M isn't unheard of with this team and ownership: Yelich extension averages close to $24M/yr over 9 years Braun extension averaged $21M/yr over 5 years Cain contract was signed for an average of $16M/yr over 5 years Grandal was 1 yr at $18.25M

I think all those assumptions are correct. I would also add that Cease is one year younger, is estimated to cost $6M less this year, has an additional year of control, and probably most importantly is on a team coming off a 101 loss season and isn't expected to compete this year vs. Burnes is on a team coming off a division title and while they might be retooling a bit, they definitely have more motivation to keep him than the Sox do Cease at this point. Not saying the Brewers should or shouldn't keep Burnes, there's just more of an argument to be made that they might actually want to keep him this year and see what happens. The White Sox have already traded away players and are coming off a horrible season, so they're a better bet to be willing to continue flipping their current talent for a better shot a few years down the road. All that said, expect a Burnes trade this afternoon.

I haven't followed his whole thing very closely, but if the courts, MLB, and the Brewers FO all feel he's cleared, I'd be interested in taking a chance on him and trust the Brewers have done their due diligence if they do decide to go that route (that might mean reaching out to current players to see how they'd feel, etc.). It's going to be a PR debacle regardless, but maybe it'll be less of an issue in Milwaukee than it would be elsewhere. All that said, totally understand anyone that wants to just steer clear of the guy regardless.

What exactly are you trying to accomplish with this post?

If the complaint is about Winker getting added to the playoff roster rather than Chourio, we're talking about 2 plate appearances... probably isn't a decision that needs to be over analyzed.

Interesting topic! Looking at Cot's we're currently projected for about a $105M payroll (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/). That includes estimates of $16M for Burnes and $13M for Adames. The last 4 full season opening day payrolls were $119M, $132M, $99M, and $123M. So we theoretically could have about $40-50M in payroll space to take on if they do indeed trade Burnes and Adames. Looking at the possible acquisitions you listed, here are their projected '24 fWARs and estimated contracts from FG (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker) and MLBTR (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html): DH Martinez - 0.5 fWAR proj / 1 yr, $12M on FG / 2 yrs, $40M on MLBTR Turner - 0.7 fWAR / 1 yr, $12M / 1 yr, $16M Soler - 1.9 fWAR / 3 yrs, $48M / 3 yrs, $45M Brantley - 1.3 fWAR / 1 yr, $9M / -- Jimenez - 2.2 fWAR / $13M in '24, $16.5M club option in '25 and $18.5M club option in '26 1B Hoskins - 2.0 fWAR / 1 yr, $14M / 2 yrs, $36M Belt - 0.5 fWAR / 1 yr, $9.5M / 1 yr, $15M Santana - 0.8 fWAR / 1 yr, $7M / -- Cron - 0.3 fWAR / 1 yr, $5M / -- Cooper - 0.3 fWAR / -- / -- IF (Note: Adames is projected for 3.1 fWAR) Chapman - 2.6 fWAR / 4 yrs, $80M / 6 yrs, $150M Merrifield - 0.7 fWAR / 2 yrs, $16M / 2 yrs, $18M Tim Anderson - 1.6 fWAR / 1 yr, $8M / 1 yr, $12M Urshela - 1.1 fWAR / -- / 2 yrs, $20M Rosario - 2.3 fWAR / 2 yrs, $18M / 2 yrs, $18M SP (Note: Burnes is projected for 3.8 fWAR) Clevinger - 1.4 fWAR / 2 yrs, $24M / 2 yrs, $26M Paxton - 2.3 fWAR / 1 yr, $8M / -- Ryu - 1.8 fWAR / 1 yr, $10M / -- Stroman - 2.6 fWAR / 3 yrs, $66M / 2 yrs, $44M Velasquez - 0.2 fWAR / -- / -- Manaea - 2.0 fWAR / 2 yrs, $24M / 2 yrs, $22M Lorenzen - 1.2 fWAR / 2 yrs, $20M / 2 yrs, $22M So theoretically.... they could pick up something like Jimenez ($13M), Hoskins (~$16M), Rosario (~$9M), and take a chance on someone like Paxton or Ryu (~$9M) and fit in that range, plus whatever they get for Burnes and Adames. Probably more impact players to be found in the trade market and I'm not too thrilled about any of the pitching options in FA, but fun to think about anyways!

Meh, I think it's fun! Since we can't hand out these kinds of contracts, let one team take all the stars. There's still an 80% chance they don't win it all. Take care of business at home and don't worry about whichever team "wins" the offseason each year. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

On the surface I don't like losing the depth on the team and the return feels light for a couple useful players. That said, I don't think either player had a ton of value, their production is replaceable with players in the organization already (and there's a decent possibility acquisitions are still to come that will outproduce each player), the organization knows more about Crow than I do and may value him more than a lottery ticket, and I don't know what discussions are going on that may have required them to free up some money and 40-man roster spots sooner than later. I'm more concerned about losing the pitching depth with Houser than losing TT with all the young outfielders we have, but we'll see how the rest of the offseason goes. Plenty of time to recoup that depth. In the end, this feels like at worst a "meh" move that frees up some cash and a couple 40-man roster spots and likely doesn't end up significantly altering this season in any meaningful way.

I don't know, seems kind of wimpy to give that to someone so young. A real man would tack on another $70M and give a contract like that to someone on the wrong side of 30.

If you sort this offseason's FA's by projected WAR (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker), 16 of the top 50 FA's have signed. One team has signed three of those players (STL), three teams have signed two of them (MIL, DET, KC), seven teams have signed one of them (LAD, PHI, SFG, ARI, NYM, HOU, CIN), and 19 teams haven't signed any of the top 50 FA's. The Brewers have spent up to $28M on two top 50 FA's, plus another $1.75M on Ross, and gave one of the top prospects in baseball an $82M contract extension. Relatively speaking the Brewers have been more active than the vast majority of the league while also having a better team to start the offseason than the majority of the league as well. The only teams that have signed as many or more top 50 FA's at this point (STL, KC, and DET) have significantly worse holes in their rosters than the Brewers. All that said, it is way too early in the offseason to start critiquing how any team has done yet. 34 of the top 50 FA's haven't even signed and the trade market has just barely gotten underway.

Let me start off by saying, I am by no means a financial, business, or math wizard, lol, so I'm sure I've over simplified this and/or gotten stuff wrong here and am not using proper terms, etc... And note, I pulled a 4.37% interest rate to make this work. I don't know if that's a realistic rate to expect, but I've seen others use 5% or 6%, so I would think it's on the safe side. But I wanted to see if I could work through this $460M over 10 yrs vs. $700M w/ deferrals business to verify/better understand how those two figures could be equal. Here's how I see it... Let's say the Dodgers were willing to go $460M for 10 years, no deferrals. That means they were able/willing to budget paying him $46M each year for 10 years. In this hypothetical situation, that means they spend all of the money budgeted on him each year, leaving no extra money to invest towards the future: Now instead of paying him $46M each year for the first 10 years, they pay him $2M instead and invest the remaining budgeted $44M each year: And this doesn't even take into the whole inflation aspect of paying $68M in 11-20 years being less valuable than paying that much today. Anywho... anyone smarter than me... am I kind of sort of understanding this correctly? 😀

I guess you're set on not believing that this is really a $460M deal that's only $700M on paper because of the deferrals? Otherwise your calculations would have come to almost exactly $9M/WAR for his contract.

Boom, send'em over!

If you put any credence into the BTV site, they're not very close in value: A lot of that is due to Glasnow getting $25M this year compared to Burnes getting ~$15M and Adames being worth about $15M more than Margot as a player.

Doesn't it make sense to calculate the competitive balance tax based on present day value though? If they started negotiations with a 10 yr, $460M offer and it only went up to $700M in order to spread the payment out later, while keeping the same overall value, it makes sense that it should still only be a $46M/yr hit to them.