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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    Since it is just a 4 seem fastball it would seem really easy to put back into the arsenal, at least easier than an off-speed pitch. With his sinker being so hard (98-100) I get using it more but I don't quite get when guys don't just have/throw a fastball. I think it is to early to say if it is making him more hittable, 4 hits in 4 innings is worse than last year but hardly enough to make any judgements. Last year baseball savant only had him at 6 % fastballs.
  2. jay87shot
    That Weimer swing looks 100% better, good to see some success. With everyone playing well on the big league roster we really don't need him unless there is an injury.
  3. jay87shot
    I doubt it, they would be trading low on him. He is affordable through 27' so that is a lot of time to get his value back. They should get a haul on Luzardo, Arraez, and Scott at the deadline if they are out of it. I think there is a decent chance the Rays or Jays sell of a bunch of pieces into a rebuild, the Red Sox look good to start the year and someone in that division is finally going to struggle. The White Sox, A's, Nats, and Rockies don't have much to trade for (other than Robert). It's a bit early to speculate about other teams that are struggling.
  4. jay87shot
    By end of 2024 (start 2025)= 1B)Hoskins 2B/SS) Turang/Oritz 3B) Dunn, Willy plays well and we get 2 solid prospects for him at the deadline. I think Tyler Black will be traded with a couple other prospects for a controllable young starter at the deadline. Wilken might get some time the last month of the year. Early/Mid 2025= 1B)Hoskins/Yeli 2B)Ortiz/Dunn SS)Turang 3B)Wilken/Dunn I still would like to see Yeli get some reps at 1st one of these years but it kind of depends on Wiemer's bat/Mitchell's health or how fast Lara/Yophery can climb through the ranks. If Weimer and Mitchell look good this year, I would give Yeli some 1st reps next year if not maybe 2026 (my guess is one of Lara or Yophery will fly through the minors, or we draft a college OF bat). EBJ maybe makes a run at Mone's spot and some MI if he plays well this year. Pratt/O'Rae/Baez ready by late 2026 or so but they are to far to guess where they might play or how much.
  5. jay87shot
    I've always struggled with the pitch framing stat idea. If you have a staff of quality accurate pitchers (Miley Burnes, Houser, Woody) it is going to be easier to frame pitches. Wild pitchers. (Hall, Ross) are going to be way more difficult to frame. Say a catchers sets up down and away and the pitchers throws one 2 inches outside, but easy to frame. Same circumstance but this time the pitch is 2 inches low, hard to frame. I am pretty sure the stat just recognizes both pitches the same and doesn't take the target into effect.
  6. jay87shot
    Any word on the Quero injury on if it's the lesser or more major version. My guess is it is the bad on if we are adding Mejia. I always liked Mejia and with are ability to help catchers defensively he will be great insurance.
  7. jay87shot
    My guess is that when Ashby starts they keep him to like 3/4 innings and piggyback Wilson with him. Ashby was good for 3/4 innings in AAA and then fell apart a bit (if memory serves). I really don't mind Ashby getting some chances, I just wouldn't give him a very long rope and make sure Wilson and Hudson are ready for 3+ innings each if Ashby is bad. Maybe Gutierrez gets a chance somewhere but just isn't on the right time line?
  8. jay87shot
    He looks really smooth, not as much hesitation. If he can man down the 3 hole all year with some real protection our lineup is going to be fun. Especially if Dunn, Chourio, and Turang continue to contribute and Ortiz and Frelick find a groove.
  9. jay87shot
    I really like what the M's did this offseason, Garver, Raley, and Polanco (even Haniger) should lengthen that lineup alot. I am sure at 1 point I heavy advocated for us to add each of Garver, Raley, and/or Polanco. They even added some nice bullpen pieces, but injuries have hurt there bullpen.
  10. jay87shot
    I really wish I lived closer to Carolina to go to some of these games, almost no chance I can convince my wife to take a baseball vacation near there.
  11. jay87shot
    I usually read most of my league wide baseball on mlbtraderumors and it links to baseball reference, I will have to try to use fangraphs more. Thanks for the help.
  12. jay87shot
    I don't know where to put this but thought maybe more people might have questions about some advanced stats. Over the years I have liked using the statistic WAR as a good reference on how strong a players overall season has gone. However I have seen some funny things recently, here is an example. I usually use baseball-reference for stats, I know there are a few different versions like fangraphs use FIP for pitchers and other differenes. Freddy Peralta 6 innings 1 run 1 hit 8 k's 1 bb = 0.2 WAR Joe Ross 3.2 innings 0 runs 2 hits 3 k's 5 bb= 0.2 WAR I am sure the ERA plays a bigger part and WAR really judges a longer part of the season. It just seems like Freddy was amazing and Ross wasn't great. Does anyone have an easy explanation on WAR. I get it is based on a bell curve and has like 6 categories that are used to determine the wins above replacement.
  13. jay87shot
    He wasn't great last year but in 2022 he had a 3.68 ERA. Last year we had to go to Julio Teheran who had a era over 5 in AAA and hadn't been good for like 4 years. I wouldn't think Greinke would be a full time all year answer, just as a vet bridge for 5-8 starts and he could get his 3k k's. There isn't much left at this point on the free agent market and anyone we could get in a trade would be a fringe roster player anyway.
  14. jay87shot
    Agree, it is early and with 3 days off early, I get letting the bullpen soak up some but it is worrisome. I wonder if we are going to be strict on Junis only going through the lineup 2 times. The Giants did that at some point last year and he was better but if he only goes 4 innings every time it will eat into the pen quickly. Being cautious with Ross and Hall early makes sense but hopefully can get pitch count up in a start or two.
  15. jay87shot
    I keep forgetting we should have Miley back soon. I guess he would be the 6th starter when he is back. I wouldnt mind Grienke if someone gets injured, I wouldn't think it would take more than 2 million after Clevinger signed for 3. He is also close to 3k k's so that adds a bit to getting him.
  16. jay87shot
    I am not saying he is hitting 20 bombS this year or next, just that it's in him. He is 6'3", if he fills out to say 210 there will be plenty of power. He did hit like 12 HR the 2nd half of 2022 in AAA.
  17. jay87shot
    I am sure Wilson or Hudson could also make a spot start here or there and go 50-60 pitches if need be. Eventually with this 39 games in 41 days stretch we will need a 6th starter, hopefully that can be Gasser. Murph was talking him up a bunch in camp and it gave me the impression he would be the 6th man when needed.
  18. jay87shot
    He quite clearly can be an average offense player. I have brought this up over the years with Turang but it seemed like every place he stopped in the minors it took him 30-50 games to adjust and then ended the season extremely well. It is just is going to take longer adjusting to big league pitching, it looked like he had done that last year after the all-star break until a wretched last month or so. I have always expected him to be a .260-.280 hitter with maybe 20 HR potential when his body fills out (i think he added 10-15 pounds of muscle this offseason).
  19. jay87shot
    Agree, imagine if he hits .275 or better we have a bunch of guys who play superb defense, run the bases, and have the potential to hit. Basically our entire lineup has the potential to be 5 WAR players other than Hoskins.
  20. jay87shot
    This helpful thanks for the in depth analysis, hopefully by the end the week we have good news.
  21. jay87shot
    Maybe having Ashby throwing 91-92 hitting 94 can be a blessing in disguise. If he learns to mix up his pitches and can hone done his accuracy when that 95-98 comes back he could greatly benefit from learning to battle with lesser stuff. Black playing a good 1st is awesome to hear, I doubt Bauers is going to last long this year. If Black comes up say in June he can play 1st a couple times a week (Rhys DH), essentially be a utility guy at 2B, 3B, and a 5th
  22. jay87shot
    That's a tough one, if I had a billion dollars and was the owner and gm of the Brewers yes no doubt. However we do have budgets and rationality of staff to take into effect. With Chourio and Yeli long term and will likely have some other young guys to pay as well it makes it tough. I think the worry for me would be the 10 years part, if we could make it like 7/98 I would think that would be a much easier decision. I still say we let this season play out until we have a clearer vision into what Quero is going to be. If Quero is a stud all year (cross my fingers on the injury) I would be swayed towards trading Contreras if Quero is ok-good but not great with the bat I would trade Quero in the offseason.
  23. jay87shot
    I think it says a lot that he can go 5-12 only hitting 1 ball hard. He will definitely have some rough stretches and hot streaks but the sheer talent is just so amazing.
  24. jay87shot
    Awesome stuff, any chance he becomes a starter? He seems a lot like Hader minus a few mph in his first year. Obviously it is super early but he has the funky lefty going for him.
  25. jay87shot
    Depends on Quero injury for me. Naverretto and Quero (and Kahle) we don't need more catching at AAA. If Quero is out a longer stretch I'd pick someone up. I am really hoping Cleveland stinks and Jose Rameriz is OK with a trade. He would be a perfect fit for us with a cheaper star contract. I would happily give up 4 good young pieces for him.
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