Brock Beauchamp

Yeah, it's really low. If I was an Orioles fan, I'd be so bloody mad. They have all these cost-controlled players, a good team, and they sit on their pile of money and do nothing.

All very true. In the case of relievers, it doesn't cost much to get a look at them in spring training, maybe a month or so into the season, and then just pay to send them back to their original team if things don't work out. And if the Brewers are truly retooling this offseason, as you said there might be room in the pen to do just that.

I tend to not put much stock in bad rookie performances. Wiemer has long-term concerns with his contact but we'll see how that progresses in the next couple of years. If a team is going to operate in the market the Brewers operate (~20th in payroll), we all have to grin and bear it as rookies and young players fall on their faces.

Now that non-tender day has come and gone, the free agent list is as robust as it will be all winter. It's hard to predict what the Brewers and GM Matt Arnold are going to do this winter. It feels likely they will be, and in that fact already have, been active on the trade market. Thus far they've mainly been playing on the fringes of the market, shuffling lower-ranked prospects for marginal MLB players with a little upside. It feels like the Brewers are not going to aggressively pursue any significant names in the free agent market but with Woodruff's salary off the books, Burnes's likely to follow soon, they're going to be well under 2023's payroll quite soon. But what are they going to do with that money? View full rumor

Yeah, I fully expected Rowdy to be non-tendered but thought there might be a 10% chance they keep him for 2024. Now I’d put that at zero or close to it.

Boy, I struggle seeing him get even 3-4 years unless he pitches half a season, which is out of the question from what I understand. Of course, anything is possible in feee agency.

It sounds like a good deal on message boards because a bunch of pitchers have signed similar deals over the past decade (one rehab year + one full season). Perhaps Woodruff isn't interested in such a deal but even if he comes back in August and pitches, he's still not getting a megadeal. That's only going to come after he pitches a full season or close to it.

Well, this basically means goodbye to Rowdy, one would think.

Oh for sure. It's hard to not get excited about a guy for 4-5 years as they mature and come up through the system and no fan is ever going to be completely objective about them. Just try to remember every fanbase feels the same about "their guys".

Me, pretty much every day right now:

As an example of why fans should try to keep their biases in check, I'm currently arguing with a Twins fan who is outraged that I'd trade Brooks Lee plus prospects (because Lee is an elite prospect, which he's not) for Freddy Peralta (who isn't that good and would be the #4 starter on the Twins, which he wouldn't). There are lots of good players and prospects in baseball. Don't get overly attached to certain ones because they wear a certain uniform.

The Dodgers certainly need the pitching and they can easily meet Burnes's asking price next winter.

Let's all hug it out with a two-year extension, please.

The pitching market is WAY better than the positional market this offseason. The positional market is actually quite terrible. The best guy on the market - Bellinger - is a guy who I have real questions about for three years, much less the 5+ years he's going to get. And when guys like Teoscar Hernandez are in the top ten positional free agents, you know it's a problem. There's nothing horrible about Hernandez, he's just an immensely flawed player (mediocre for a corner guy against RHP, the most easily-exploited weakness a hitter can have).

As we head toward the 2024 season, the Brewers starting rotation is filled with question marks. Will Corbin Burnes be there? Can Freddy Peralta maintain his form from 2023’s stretch drive? Can Robert Gasser make a smooth transition to the majors? Will good or bad Adrian Houser step up? Will he even be tendered a contract? Can Colin Rea be at least serviceable? And last, but certainly not least: what kind of ability has Aaron Ashby retained after his devastating shoulder injury from last season? This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Two of the handbook at the bottom of the article. This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and future entries will be available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here. Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic. That’s a lineup of six potential starters, but of them, one is likely to be traded away; one returning from serious injury; and question marks surround the level of expected performance from Gasser, Rea, and Houser. Of the sextet, only Gasser can be optioned to the minor leagues. The Brewers pitching staff may look very different come Opening Day. They need at least one external addition in order to remain competitive next year. Who is available on the market to fit the Brewers’ budgetary restrictions and be a capable performer? Middle-Tier Arms Seth Lugo An intriguing mid-rotation arm with a career 3.50 ERA across 641 innings, Lugo spent seven years with the Mets before moving to the Padres. After opting out of a deal that would have paid him $7.5 million in 2024, he’s an enticing, slightly under-the-radar arm. He spent 2021 and 2022 in the bullpen for the Mets, but stretched out as a starter for the Padres in 2023, pitching to a 3.57 ERA across 146 1/3 innings. On the positive side, Lugo has a devastating curveball, an 83rd percentile walk rate, and generates a lot of ground balls that were eaten up by the high-quality Padres infield this year. His peripherals leave much to be desired, with a significant uptick in hard-hit balls on both his primary pitches, the four-seam fastball and the curveball. His weak contact numbers dropped from 6% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023, while his solid contact rate (as defined by Statcast) rose from 1.6% to 7.5%. There is a definite worry with Lugo that the transition to the starting rotation has negated his effectiveness, and that the quality of the Padres’ defense had a big hand in his topline results. That being said, he pounds the strike zone and eats innings. Perhaps he has more to unlock in his second year of returning to the rotation. Lugo figures to be seeking a multi-year deal. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a three-year, $42-million contract for him, which may be feasible for the Brewers should they trade Burnes and his final-year arbitration obligations away. He’s the type of pitcher the Brewers enjoy working with, sporting an above-average spin rate that leads to good movement on both his fastball and his curveball, allowing them to play up. Verdict: Definite potential, but slightly overpriced based on last season. Potential to excel or dip off. Kenta Maeda Maeda is injury-prone. He’s 35 years old. He’s barely surpassed 100 innings in each of his last two seasons. All of that means he’ll be significantly cheaper than most pitchers who possess the upside he still owns. Maeda could be brought in on a two-year contract, and combines welcome veteran presence with a skill set that’s effective in the big leagues. After the All-Star break in 2023, Maeda pitched to a 3.79 ERA across 71 1/3 innings, with 82 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP, albeit with a propensity for home runs. His xERA on the season was 3.77. The Twins’ good-not-great infield defense, wherein Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa combined for -1 Defensive Runs Saved, probably cost him a bit. That said, Maeda had just a 33.6% ground ball rate in 2023, a 9th-percentile number far below his career norms of around 40%. Maeda is the kind of risk that could be worth taking, given the quality of the Brewers’ defense. With an xERA that’s never gone above 4.00, a splitter that had a 35% whiff rate last season, and a slider that played well when kept out of the heart of the strike zone, he has a high floor and some chance to improve on the results he posted last year. With many new pitchers coming through, a facsimile of Wade Miley could benefit Milwaukee, especially one who still has the potential to be a significant contributor on a competing team. As he gets further removed from surgery, there remains a possibility that he will take that next step. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Maeda could be in line for a two-year deal worth $36 million. If he comes in a bit lower, though, he would be entirely affordable for the Brewers. His innings pitched over the last three seasons will prevent Maeda from attaining more, but as long as his splitter keeps splitting, there’s a strong chance for him to have one more high-quality season. If the Brewers can find a way to help him get the ball on the ground more often, those results could come through, but they’ll also need more than 100 innings to make this contract justifiable. Verdict: 2 years, $24 million would provide value for the Brewers, given injury history, but any more could be costly Michael Wacha The Padres declined Wacha’s two-year, $32 million option, sending him into free agency, and he’s an intriguing arm. Wacha has pitched 251 innings over the last two seasons, recording a 3.26 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP led by his increasing use of his changeup, which held hitters to just a .187/.304 xBA/xSLG in 2023. With almost a 36% swing-and-miss rate, it’s an elite pitch that’s brought a lot of success to him over several seasons. With above-average walk, Barrel, and chase rates, to boot, Wacha is a highly effective middle-of-the-rotation pitcher who can deliver quality starts... View full article

I’d love for it into be Baltimore, it makes all the sense. But the way they clutch their prospects…

I get it but I think many people here are overvaluing what Burnes is going to return. Do I think it’s better than Morel plus? Probably. But maybe not. My biggest problem with Morel is that he’s not a good fit for the Brewers, either positionally or where the Brewers look to be in the near future. Lots of teams want Burnes but I don’t think there are that many teams that align with the Brewers interests. I don’t think the Twins line up as well for Burnes as they do Peralta, who will be far more expensive to attain. And in the end, it doesn’t matter what we think, it only matters what Matt Arnold thinks. Which is why I’m generally loathe to predict trades. It’s like trying to watch a movie peeking through a hole in the fence… from a mile away.

If that was true you’d see a lot more Twins-related stuff. 29 fanbases are drooling over the thought of Burnes right now. Some of the proposed packages are… comical.

Okay, just wanted to update that I'll probably close voting on this Friday night so if you want to add your input, do so soon!

Sure, that makes sense. I just have more confidence that the Cardinals will do something painful to the Brewers over the long-term, which balances the scales.

You'd make a trade with the Cardinals before the Cubs? Interesting. I'm not sure I agree but it's close either way.