Brock Beauchamp

I also think this is the driving factor but I'm unsure shortening the on-base pitch clock time will achieve that goal. I'm also wholly unconvinced the pitch clock has caused more pitcher injuries. The data behind that seems dodgy, at best, and certainly an insufficient sample size.

Yeah, that's kinda my take on it. Between Yelich and Contreras, paying prospect capital (and a pile of cash) for a dedicated DH doesn't make much sense to me.

I just don't see this being a good fit for a variety of reasons. But weirder things have happened in an offseason.

I stay pretty plugged into rumors but don't recall hearing that the Brewers were pursuing enigmatic slugger Eloy Jimenez, as reported in this MLB Trade Rumors roundup. Jimenez is a potent bat... about half the time. Over the past four seasons, he has posted an OPS+ of 139, 99, 141, and 104. And he's also injured often, playing only 259 games in the past three seasons. Pretty much a DH-only, Jimenez would add a sizable right-handed threat to the Brewers but it's hard to see where he fits on this roster as currently constructed. And his contract won't be cheap. He is owed $13.8 million in 2024 and has two team options in 2025 and 2026 for $16.5 and $18.5 million, respectively. View full rumor

Polanco is somewhat expendable. The Twins also have Julien at second and Lewis at third while Lee looks to make his debut some time in 2024. They have more viable infielders than infield positions to play.

Jenkins has the upside but he’s still a ways from the majors. But it’s a fair ask.

Maybe? But MLB players just don’t bring back the prospect hauls they used to. Personally, and as I said earlier in this thread, I think Peralta has the same value 12 months from now that he has today. Length of contract seems to bring diminishing returns past a certain point. If the Brewers want to compete in 2024, they should consider keeping Peralta for one more season and reevaluate next winter. As for Raya and Soto, they’re in the ballpark of return value in an abstract sense. The actual nuts and bolts come down to how the Twins and Brewers view each. Either team could be high or low on each of them, what we think doesn’t really matter much when it comes to specific names. Change Raya to a different name, maybe the Brewers like that better but looks worse on paper.

No, that's a fair deal for Peralta. Brooks Lee is a top-50 global prospect that's likely to make his debut in 2024. Soto and Raya are pretty good prospects with upside. And the trade was suggested by someone else, not me. How do I know it's a pretty fair deal? I proposed a very similar Lee+ deal at Twins Daily and Twins fans were gnashing their teeth over how lop-sided it was because Freddy Peralta "isn't that good".

Yeah, I wonder if Arnold believes the difference in value between Peralta today and Peralta 12 months from now isn't substantial... and he's probably right (barring catastrophic injury, of course). It's really hard to see the Brewers contending without Woodruff, Burnes, AND Peralta. So maybe just hold on to Freddy as a bridge for a little while longer.

I think that deal for Peralta is pretty close to what it will take to move him, though I'm not sure the Brewers are interested in dealing Freddy. From both sides' perspective, the deal makes quite a bit of sense, though.

I definitely see the Brewers shopping in that tier, I only hope they do a better job of it than the Cardinals. I'd take half the names in your second paragraph over what the Cardinals have done with Gibson. There's just no upside there other than innings and even that is sketchy. I'd rather the Brewers' coaching staff have a go at Ryu, Severino, Montas, or even Odorizzi over Gibson. I'm keeping Clevinger off the list for off the field stuff. Miley is an obvious return candidate if he's willing.

Huh. Maybe I'm just undervaluing the current market for slightly-below-average starters. Makes the Colin Rea deal look good if Kyle Gibson is getting $12m, though.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic! Severino is one of the most interesting names on the free agent board that's in the Brewers' budget, for sure. But given what Kyle Gibson got, I really don't know what to expect from this market.

The Brewers are at a crossroads with Willy Adames. On one hand, last year was the least productive of his short tenure with Milwaukee. On the other hand, he’s an exceptional fielder, a great clubhouse presence, and is still capable of being an offensive sparkplug. So what will it be: trade him for better hitting, or trust in his ability to bounce back? Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic & Brock Beauchamp This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Three of the handbook at the bottom of the article. This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and full entries are available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here. Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic. wiOffensively, Adames was below-average in 2023. His slash line of .217/.310/.407 totaled an OPS of .717 and registered an OPS+ of 95, making him five percent less effective than the average hitter when adjusting for ballpark factors. He struggled to make good contact and avoid strikeouts. His average exit velocity was just 87.4 mph (16th percentile), and his hard-hit rate of 36.5% (23rd percentile) was down, too. Interestingly, his sweet-spot percentage and barrel rate were better than average, but how? The key differentiator is that barrel percentage for a batted ball is calculated using exit velocity and launch angle, while sweet-spot solely considers launch angle. The launch angle of his batted balls is in the sweet spot 35.0% of the time, right around the league average. When you throw in exit velocity to gauge how often he’s barreling the ball, his 12.4% rate (82nd percentile) was quite good. In essence, Adames is hitting the ball at the right trajectories, but isn’t hitting it hard enough, consistently enough. Strikeouts have been a weakness in Adames’s approach. Often choosing to swing first and ask questions later, Adames ended up chasing 31.8% of the time (28th percentile), whiffing 31.0% of the time (18th percentile), and striking out 25.9% of the time (26th percentile). This approach isn’t uncommon in even the sport’s best hitters. Aaron Judge, Luis Robert Jr., and Adolis Garcia are some examples of productive players with worse-than-average strikeout figures. However, they can compensate by possessing more power, a characteristic Adames didn’t have this year. He was able to make up some points on his OPS with a great walk rate (11.1%, 82nd percentile), but it wasn’t enough to return his numbers to the level he reached in his stellar 2021 season. In addition to the aforementioned regressions in exit velocity and strikeouts, Adames was probably a tad unlucky on batted balls. His expected batting average and slugging were quite a bit higher than his actual numbers, with his xBA at .242 and his xSLG at .442. His expected weighted on-base average was actually above average, at .341 (68th percentile), meaning that based on his intrinsic batted-ball characteristics, he should have produced more runs for his team than he did. Expected stats aside, he did seem to iron out some of his issues in the regular season’s final month, which saw him slash .240/.373/.479. Despite a lukewarm year at the plate, Adames’s glove made him a very valuable player, overall. He was an integral part of the Brewers having one of the best infield defenses in MLB, and a key reason why they won the 2023 National League Team Gold Glove Award. At 16 outs above average, he was the second-most effective fielding shortstop, trailing only Dansby Swanson. Defensive Runs Saved didn’t look upon him as favorably, as his 8 DRS placed him eighth among shortstops. No matter which stat you decide to emphasize, Adames was, at the very least, one of the 10 best defensive shortstops in the game. What’s His Trade Value? Trading Adames wouldn’t be out of the question. With Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio available to play shortstop, there’s a reasonably high floor even if he does leave. Many teams could be interested in acquiring Adames to bolster their infield, but how many of those teams also have pieces that would interest the Brewers? San Francisco Giants With Brandon Crawford’s long reign over, the Giants need a new shortstop for the first time in a decade, and they have plenty to offer. For example, Wilmer Flores (.863 OPS, 136 OPS+) would be a great addition to the Brewers and a big offensive upgrade at first base–though obviously, the Crew would want him in addition to other, younger talent, not in lieu thereof. Adames would give the Giants the defensive stability they always had at short during their glory days last decade, but which has eluded them as Crawford has aged and battled injuries the last few years.Unfortunately, the Giants were the worst-hitting team in the second half (.651 team OPS), so they might be unwilling to give up what little good hitting they have left. They have an excellent shortstop prospect named Marco Luciano, who could be exchanged, allowing the Giants to focus on winning now versus later and giving the Brewers a replacement to whom to look forward. It’s unlikely that Luciano would be available in an Adames deal, given that he’s only under club control for one more season, but maybe the Brewers could kick in some pitching depth and land an elite prospect that way... View full article

His defense as currently constituted is definitely a problem. My expectation would be the Brewers might be able to eke some additional value out of that, they seem better at doing that than the Twins, particularly with infielders. Miranda isn't some lumbering clutz, he looks and feels like a guy who CAN be average with coaching and work.

Ace-level pitching doesn’t come easily, and it doesn’t come cheaply. A former Cy Young winner with an unblemished injury record would be heavily sought-after, even amidst a free-agent market relatively rich with starting pitching. This could be precisely the time in which the Brewers can cash in for a big haul with Corbin Burnes. Before we can establish his value, we need to know the other options, and which teams might be the most desperate for his services. Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic & Brock Beauchamp This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Three of the handbook at the bottom of the article. This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and full entries are available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here. Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic. Why is Burnes So Valuable? Corbin Burnes brings everything you could want in a starting pitcher. Most important is his durability. He’s made 93 starts over his last three seasons, with over 200 strikeouts in each. Since his return to the Brewers in 2020 after a rocky 2019 campaign, here’s where Burnes ranks among pitchers with a minimum of 300 total innings: 2.98 xFIP (1st) .198 BAA (4th) 2.85 ERA (5th) 747 Strikeouts (3rd) 30.8% K Rate (7th) 2.82 FIP (2nd) 0.99 WHIP (4th) 0.8 HR/9 (7th) 609 2/3 Innings Pitched (6th) 46.8% Ground Ball Rate (27th) All of this adds up to a workhorse who has proven (over three and a third seasons) that he’s durable, works deep into games, has top-tier strikeout stuff, and can keep the ball on the ground. This is a combination teams dream of, and constitutes as little risk as you can get with an elite starting pitcher. Burnes’s team control through the 2024 season allows any trading team an entire season to try and negotiate a long-term contract extension with the righty before he hits free agency, which may interest large-market teams like the Dodgers. Everything Burnes does is based on his cutter. Some high-end relievers have a pitch like it, but no starter in MLB can rival the movement and speed at which he throws this pitch. Usually, hitters sit on a pitcher’s primary, fastball-adjacent offering, and try to do damage against it. Their goal is to lay off the rest. Yet, Burnes held hitters to a .209 batting average and .340 slugging percentage on his cutter. In July 2023, Burnes adapted his curveball and slider to increase their effectiveness in putting hitters away. He saw more movement differentiation with his slider, and added five inches more vertical drop to his curveball. It made a big difference in performance. Burnes threw 107 2/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA and 102 strikeouts before the All-Star break. After it, he threw 86 1/3 innings to a 2.71 ERA and 98 strikeouts, a considerable difference. The second-half version of Burnes is what other teams will be buying, not the one that struggled early in 2023 and at the back end of 2022. The Other Available Aces Tyler Glasnow: 529 2/3 innings, 3.89 ERA, 678 strikeouts career line Glasnow has an issue with staying healthy, and the stats above don’t demonstrate quite how much potential he’s flashed since 2021. However, during that time, he has averaged only 71 innings per season, which will have a massive effect on teams considering an acquisition. Armed with a 96.4-mph average fastball and a curveball that held hitters to just a .095/.190 line in 2023, he has the raw stuff to be successful if he can stay injury-free, but the concerns on a one-year trade and the $24-million salary he will receive in 2024 will put suitors off. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 1.21 ERA, 169 strikeouts, 28 walks in 164 innings during 2023 NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) Yamamoto is a two-time winner of both the Sawamura Award and the MVP award in Japan in the last two seasons, armed with an almost unhittable splitter. Combined with a mid-90s fastball and a unique curveball, he’s being widely courted in the majors. Scouts consider him a full step up from the talented Kodai Senga, and a likely number-one starter. There is one issue, however: the MLB ball’s seams are thicker and put more stress on a pitcher’s arm, particularly when throwing splitters. While Shohei Ohtani and Senga have partially assuaged these concerns, there are still question marks about how Yamamoto will perform Stateside. Blake Snell: 180 innings pitched, 2.25 ERA, 234 strikeouts and 99 walks in 2023 Snell won his second career Cy Young Award last week, but it’s hard to imagine a two-time winner of that award who would make potential suitors more nervous in free-agent negotiations. Snell led the league in walks, and averaged less than six innings per start–hardly the traditional hallmarks of a true ace. That being said, he is a high-risk, high-reward option this offseason, even if he lacks the reliability of Burnes. He is one of the least aesthetically pleasing pitchers in the game, but his results are ace-level. Aaron Nola: 96 starts over the last three seasons, 660 strikeouts Nola showed utter dominance in 2022, with a 0.95 WHIP and 3.25 ERA. However, he regressed in 2023 and recorded a 4.46 ERA. The man drafted seventh overall in 2014 posted a 2.35 ERA in the playoffs, when it mattered most. Teams know they’ll get length and quality starts from Nola, with the potential for more. His expected ERA (xERA, based on whiffs and batted-ball quality) has been significantly lower than his actual ERA in each of his last three seasons, likely due to the Phillies’ unimpressive defenses, coupled with a 96th-percentile chase rate arising from one of the best curveballs in the game. Nola’s top line may not challenge Burnes, but it shouldn’t be underestimated how much value he’ll have, due to his durability and underlying numbers. Other key figures to watch are Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Shota Imanaga, but it’s fair to say none of the above quite tick all the boxes in the way that Burnes can. His most intense competition will be with Yamamoto. However, once he gets signed, many rejected teams may turn to Burnes and be aggressive about it. For the record, teams currently heavily interested in the Japanese star include the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, and Cubs. On top of that are teams more interested in the cost certainty of a one-year deal for Burnes to match their window–lower salary teams such as the Orioles, Rays, Mariners, Twins, or Diamondbacks. What Trade Packages May Be on the Table? Any team getting ahold of Burnes will either sign him to a long-term deal or get a compensatory draft pick following the 2024 season. That is important in constructing any potential trade package. Some stacked farm systems would be very appetizing to the Brewers’ front office, and any deal could come down to which prospects entice Matt Arnold the most. Burnes is projected to obtain a $15-million contract in arbitration next season, which may slightly limit the return, but it comes in nearly $10 million under Glasnow’s 2024 commitment price. The Brewers will probably be searching for MLB-ready talent, and some form of pitching capital should be involved in any deal. The Brewers are also searching for more power in their lineup, particularly in the infield. With that in mind, who could dangle some juicy carrots? Los Angeles Dodgers - SP Ryan Pepiot, SP Emmet Sheehan, SS Joendry Vargas These are two exciting pitching prospects. Pepiot carries some injury concerns, as well as occasional home run tendencies. However, he has an incredible knack for limiting walks and hard contact. Combined with a high chase rate (especially on his changeup), you can see why Pepiot shows some promise of being a solid big-leaguer for years to come. Without actual strikeout stuff, he will rely on good defense, particularly in the outfield–something the Brewers have prioritized since 2018 and which could allow him a place to flourish. The injury concerns, however, are sizable. Emmet Sheehan, after a rocky start, showed some promise toward the end of the year, striking out 34 hitters in just 22 innings in September. The expectation is that he will develop significantly in the years to come, thanks partially to this early exposure. He had an xBA of .187, 98th-percentile in the league, alongside above-average chase and whiff rates... View full article

Miranda had a recurring shoulder issue all season, which is reportedly ready to go now. That's why he went from a 2021 156 wRC+ in AAA and a 2022 117 wRC+ in MLB to the dreadful numbers you posted in 2023. I'm skeptical Miranda will ever be a good third baseman defensively but don't put too much stock in his first base defense, he was basically handed a glove and told to stand there. The Twins tend to do that to players and it rarely works out well for them in the short-term.

Jorge Polanco + Jose Miranda for Joey Wiemer + (fill in blank). Who is the fill in the blank? Someone like Logan Henderson? BTW has that skewed toward the Twins but I think they're undervaluing Jose Miranda a bit.

I'm pretty wary of Chapman. He's a good player but with so much of his value tied to defense, I don't think I'm eager to offer him a deal into his mid-30s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that rival executives are saying the Blue Jays are open to trading embattled starter Alek Manoah. Manoah was one of the promising young pitchers in baseball as he pitched 308 innings over 2021-2022 with an incredible 157 ERA+. Unfortunately, his 2023 was equally as bad as those seasons were good. He pitched to a 5.87 ERA in 87.1 innings pitched and lost all control over his pitches. The big (and I mean BIG, 6'6" & 285 lbs) right-hander won't come cheaply but with the Brewers knack for developing starting pitching, he could be worth the sizable risk. Manoah is still only 25 years old, won't become arbitration-eligible until after the 2024 season, and will not be a free agent until the 2028 season. View full rumor