I think two things stood out about that game to me; one, Houston is a tough defensive team of grown men that took advantage of late mistakes, and two, Duke choked down the stretch. As you pointed out Duke did not play out the last 2-3 minutes well and some of that is on the young coach as well.
Tonight I expect another tough battle. I think Florida gets it done though as they are the deeper team and Clayton is the best player on the floor.