Brewcrew82

This is still the most likely scenario, imo. Everything that Stearns has said about "bringing back the core" and "competing" indicates this. Without Burnes and/or Woodruff, they'll be lucky to win more than 85 games. With both of them, they have a shot to win 95. Extend one of them (probably Woodruff) this offseason and then trade the other next offseason for a still significant haul.

This is still the most likely scenario, imo. Everything that Stearns has said about "bringing back the core" and "competing" indicates this. Without Burnes and/or Woodruff, they'll be lucky to win more than 85 games. With both of them, they have a shot to win 95. Extend one of them (probably Woodruff) this offseason and then trade the other next offseason for a still significant haul.

Interesting. My guess is that they sign one of Burnes or Woodruff (probably Woodruff) to an extension this offseason, in the mold of the recent Castillo and Musgrove deals. Besides the fact that it is so hard to develop elite starting pitching in the first place, they might feel the need to do so given the huge hit they took from the fanbase after the Hader trade. They would get absolutely excoriated for trading Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff in successive years.

Contreras isn't coming to Milwaukee. Nor would I want him to.

Contreras isn't coming to Milwaukee. Nor would I want him to.

Yeah, there's no point to the Brewers acquiring Buehler as he's currently on the mend from TJ surgery, will become a FA at the same time as Burnes, and has shown diminished skills recently. This is a straight-up rebuild, no doubt about it. Which conflicts with every statement Stearns has made.

Again, why would the Brewers sign Benintendi, when A) he would almost certainly cost more than Renfroe who you're non-tendering and B) when they have Frelick who is basically a cheaper, faster version of him. Frelick in RF, as you have it, doesn't work either as his arm is mediocre. You say Suter can make a spot-start, but he hasn't done so in almost two years. He's the definition of a low-leverage, replacement-level reliever (-0.2 fWAR) who the Brewers could replace internally at a fraction of the $3 million cost. For someone who wants to create payroll flexibility, to the extent that he is determined to non-tender Renfroe, that is completely non-sensical. Moreover, his age and underlying numbers from this past season indicate (4.40 FIP) that he is due to suffer further decline. As for Vasquez and Caratini, their value was nearly identical by fWAR, with Vasquez just barely edging out Caratini. And their underlying numbers were also virtually identical. Caratini was slightly better at framing per baseball savant, while Vasquez was slightly better per fangraphs. Definitely doesn't justify a $5.0 Mil. difference in their salaries. Feliciano is not going to be the back-up C. Your back-up catcher actually has to be respectable defensively. Feliciano is nowhere near respectable defensively ATM.

We can argue about Houser and Hiura to the A's all day long. Fact is, that trade isn't a central element of my plan. If it came down to it, we could just go ahead and trade them to a different non-contending team for a reliever and a utility player. I will note that the A's still need to field a ballclub at the MLB level and that all of their moves aren't going to exclusively be acquiring minor league talent. Houser is an above average starting pitcher that they have room to feature at the big-league level. Same with Hiura. They have the ability to give him the playing time that we simply don't have against RHP. You emphasize that neither would be around when the A's field their next competitive team, well, doesn't the same logic apply to Puk and Kemp, given how weak the A's currently are on talent at the MLB and minor-league levels? The upside is that, if Houser and Hiura produce in their roles, they can be used to net more prospect capital. It's a risk that a rebuilding team like the A's can afford to take for barely over $1 million dollars. As for Kemp, I was more focused on matching salaries with Houser and acquiring a left-handed bench bat to replace Peterson. I'm sure the Brewers would attempt to get him to consider increasing his positional flexibility to SS and 3B as the price of playing for a contender. Meanwhile, with respect to the Dodgers, they do have significant payroll flexibility this offseason. But, again, they have decidedly more holes on their roster right now than they are accustomed to having, especially on the pitching side of things. They WILL NOT be able to resolve all of them in the FA market. Some will have to be addressed via trade. My assumption, based in part on the outcome of the Padres series, is that they will be heavily invested in the elite starter and reliever FA market (DeGrom, Rodon, Kershaw, Diaz, etc.) as well as the OF market (Judge?). Which could make them particularly open to acquiring a SS like Adames for a reduced cost similar to what they were paying Trea Turner over the past year and a half. Especially when the production gap btw. Adames and the elite FA SS is relatively small. They would have to part with some prospects, but Vargas is looking like he's blocked by Freeman and Pepiot is overshadowed by Stone and Miller. It's a deal that could end up making perfect sense for both sides. Certainly, a heck of a lot more sense than non-tendering Renfroe, while signing Benintendi for a greater cost and retaining Suter and Houser.

I wanted to strike the best balance between going for it next season and optimizing our future, which seems to be the direction Stearns. and co. are likely to take. This roster strikes that balance, imo. Gives them one year to attempt to extend Burnes/Woodruff, while eliminating Adames as an extension candidate. I love the guy, but his profile is simply too risky in light of the Yelich deal.

Yes, the Dodgers are well into the luxury tax, but the further you venture into it, the greater the penalties are. Which is why it acts as a de-facto salary "cap". The Dodgers have multiple holes that they need to address this offseason, particularly on the pitching side of things. Thus, they could easily prefer a lower-cost option at SS such as Adames who already produces on a level that is similar to those FAs. They would essentially be replacing Turner's salary over the past two years with Adames over the next two years, which would then enable them to use their resources t'o attack the pitching market (i.e., DeGrom, Rodon, Diaz, etc.). Meanwhile, Vargas is looking more and more like a first-baseman, where he is blocked for the foreseeable future by Freeman. I wouldn't say that Houser and Hiura "don't make any sense" for Oakland. Kemp and Houser is essentially a salary swap and provides them with an above average starting pitching option that they can eventually flip to a contender. I think Houser would perform very well in that ballpark. As for Hiura and Puk, Hiura does cost slightly more and has one less year of control, but that is roughly offset by the fact that Hiura is a position player and Puk is strictly a reliever. Oakland could be very tempted to see what Hiura can do in regular playing time, which, unlike the Brewers, they can provide, and the possibility of flipping him for prospects. Yes, Oakland would be paying about $1.3 million more, but they certainly have the payroll flexibility to take that chance, when Puk isn't likely to play a role on their next contender anyways. Regardless, it certainly makes a heck of a lot more sense than the Brewers non-tendering Renfroe, keeping Suter and Houser, and then going out and signing Benintendi for even more than Renfroe and despite the presence of 4 MLB-ready outfielders.

Because he has a superiority complex and thinks he is always right, regardless of his lack of complete information. He doesn't want to understand. To the normal reader, however, what you and I are describing is perfectly reasonable. Independent validation of data is one of the cornerstones of effective analysis.

After further consideration, I've decided to swap Mitchell and Wiemer in the Jansen trade. We're going to need a right-fielder after Renfroe departs next offseason and Wiemer is by far the best candidate in our system. Sets you up for a Frelick-Chourio-Wiemer outfield of the future. That might bring us a World Series. Mitchell allows the Jays to start to phase Springer out of CF.

Yeah, I like the trade as it enables us to become more contact-oriented, upgrade our pitching depth, and focus on resigning Burnes/Woodruff. I love Adames, but I don't think I want to take the risk of extending him after Yelich. Burnes/Woodruff are more sure things imo. Very hard to develop front-line starting pitchers.

Power doesn't need to come with swing and miss. For example, Rowdy and Jansen both have big power, but strikeout less than league average. But you can't strike out as much as the Brewers did this season and consistently win games. It's no coincidence that all 8 division series teams combined for the top 8 spots in adjusted strikeout rate. This lineup helps move us in a more contact oriented direction, which will hopefully lead to more consistent offense.

Pitcher.

Not sure. Just decided to do this one in light of reading trade proposals from other posters. This is the version that I feel gives us the best team for both the present and the future. You already stated that you wouldn’t give up those players for Jansen in my last one. I responded that you have to give up value to get value, especially considering Jansen led all MLB catchers in WRC+ last season . With as many outfielders as we have in AAA and on the major league roster, Wiemer becomes expendable due to his heavy swing and miss tendencies. That’s something we need to move away from.

Kolten Wong, option exercised Brent Suter, non-tendered Trevor Gott, non-tendered Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at $9 MIL AAV Willy Adames, traded to LAD for Miguel Vargas, Ryan Pepiot, and Jorbit Vivas Keston Hiura and Adrian Houser traded to OAK for AJ. Puk and Tony Kemp Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez Thanks to @nate82@reillymcshanefor the trade ideas. ? Danny Jansen ($3.70M) 1B: Miguel Vargas ($0.70M) 2B: Kolten Wong ($7.50M) 3B: Luis Urias ($4.50M) SS: Brice Turang ($0.70M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.00M) DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M) 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($2.00M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Utility: Tony Kemp ($3.90M) Backup ? Victor Caratini ($2.80M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M) SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M) RP: Ryan Pepiot ($0.70M) RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M) RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M) RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M) RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M) Payroll is 5.92% under budget

Give me between 85-92 wins. Cardinals aren't that much better than us. And the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates still have plenty of work to do.

Whatever. Believe what you want it to believe. I’m done arguing it as it has so little to do with my original post.

Now you’re a wRC+ truther (aka pretty much the best available stat to evaluate offense)??? Lol. Did you know the earth is round, too?

“Garbage”. Yeah, that’s why it’s been accurate on 95% of trades since its creation. It’s not perfect nor is it the Bible, but it’s a very useful public resource…Keep it going man, you never cease to amaze me. Lol

Lol “logic”. Says the guy who wants to non-tender Renfroe, yet is fine tendering Suter and Houser while potentially signing Benintendi. Listen, you can ultimately choose to believe whatever you want but the anecdotal evidence is out there that MLB front offices do refer to it from time to time. And it doesn’t fly in the face of logic when independent verification is a key part of the analytical process. Otherwise your results may suffer from bias.

A HUGE "no" on Aroldis Chapman for me. He hasn't been dominant since 2019, and this year he's looked like he's just plain done. Not to mention the havoc he could wreak on clubhouse chemistry, which already experienced a dip this past year. At $10M, could end up alongside Gagne in Brewers' FA infamy.

You say Renfroe has "no upside", but where he is right now at his position relative to the rest of the league is better than every one of our position players except for Adames. But I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one and see which one of us is proven right in a little over a month. Suter and Houser are the literal definition of replacement-level players. Houser may rebound and produce more in line with 2021, when he was a good #4 starter, but I question whether he is likely to do so given the new rules. If you're going to jettison Renfroe due to cost, which his production actually justifies, then you have to apply the same logic to Suter and Houser, as their production this year does not come close to matching their projected cost The whole (potentially) non-tendering Renfroe and then signing Benintendi (for the same cost or greater) thing is just bizarre. In that situation, the savings should be used to bolster the bullpen and rotation depth. Based on Stearns' season-ending press conference, that is the direction he seems to want to take.

That's because, as I've stated before, every team has its own private system that it mostly uses. A public system such as this is not relied on, but used occasionally to "check their work."