Brewcrew82

Would be interested to see what other teams are offering for our OFs not named Chourio. I feel like we'd be selling low, but you never know.

No, but Esteury Ruiz just had one dominant year at 23 in the upper minors and had atrocious batted ball data, culminating in him having by far the lowest average EV in the majors this year. Black's is nowhere near that low. Vargas, interestingly, put the ball in the air a ton with a 47%. FB rate (which you want Black to do), yet had his worst season of his career including the minors. Black has plus speed so I don't think you don't want all of his contact going in the air. Fact of the matter is, unlike Ruiz and Vargas, Black has put up a +.400 OBP everywhere he's been. He may not reach quite that level in the majors, but there's very little reason to think he won't get on base at a well above average rate, which is precisely what you want from your #2 hitter. As Wiguy points out, you're completely ignoring his AA data where he spent the vast majority of the season and then decide to extrapolate out a much smaller sample size from AAA.... If this were a one-off, I wouldn't think much of it other than I simply disagree, but with some of the other articles you've been pumping out lately and with seemingly increasing frequency, it sure as heck is going to raise eyebrows on a Brewers fan site.

I personally have relatively few concerns about a guy with a career .415 minor league OBP and plus speed hitting 2nd in the order.

Yeah, I've been reluctant about the Cubs fan stuff, but this is getting ridiculous.

How it is unfortunately for a player who produced like he did last year and who is still in pre-arb.

A Burnes trade seems pretty obvious to me. Or maybe Williams.

Elias is the definition of a prospect hoarder.

Joey Ortiz, who is blocked by Henderson and Holliday in Baltimore, would be the one. Plus to plus plus defender and has been steadily improving with the bat.

Garrett Mitchell or Joey Wiemer is not getting Parades. His surplus value is through the roof with 4 years of control remaining. You'd have to add Quero and Misiorowski. Or substitute Frelick for Wiemer/Mitchell and then add Quero.

Yeah, I wouldn't automatically insert him in the rotation or anything. He could be moved to the bullpen or released before OD. They obviously like what they saw from him in the minors this year.

I could see them inserting themselves into the Soto sweepstakes.

Now, if they can packaged Adames with Burnes that’s a different story…

Zero interest in helping the Cubs get Soto.

JS reporting it as done.

Lol. Tell me you don't know what you're talking about without telling me you don't know what you're talking about.

Never said it wasn't a youth movement, but the strategy is still perpetual competitiveness/bites of the apple. It's transitioning while still being competitive, which Arozarena helps achieve.

No more than trading top value assets in Peralta and Williams to the Orioles for less than their full value to help ease the sting for Elias the prospect hoarder.

If it was full-on youth movement/rebuild I would’ve traded Peralta and not signed Miley or Turner. Rather, this is simply more perpetual competitiveness and bites of the apple. Trade Burnes and Adames because they’re expiring assets, but get guys back who can help you now and set you up nicely for the future. Same idea with Williams You don’t need someone who lines up perfectly with the rest of the core’s timeline when you also have Lara, Rodriguez, etc coming through and Black who could also be moved to an OF corner once Arozarena leaves in FA in 3 years. Meanwhile, if you believe as I do that Mitchell, Wiemer, and Rodriguez have serious bust potential, you’re cashing in before their value drops further.

As I explained above, you're cashing in on OF depth for a more surefire power upgrade and to maintain competitiveness during transition. I think Mitchell and Wiemer are the young guys most likely to bust due to K issues and we have Lara, Yophery etc. coming through the pipeline once Arozarena would reach FA. I wouldn't say that. Seems like a decent pitching staff to me. Young and unproven, but strikeouts will be there, especially from the pen. Freddy around a top 20 pitcher going forward as he hits his prime. Miley maybe takes a step back, but still hopefully gives you around 120-130 innings of sub 4.00 ERA ball. Sheehan your ascending stud. Houser and Rea steady presence at back of rotation. Maybe one middle of the rotation/innings eater short, but that's why you have Frasso, Hall, Gasser, and eventually Misiorowski (all starting prospects) coming out of the pen and/or acting as the 6th man. So, more like 2018 as we deal with the losses of Burnes and Woodruff. In an ideal world, I'd sign Bauer instead of Miley, but I don't know if they're willing to go there.

Signings: -Justin Turner 1 year, 16 MM (They've been trying to sign Turner for years now. Now as good of time as ever. Bridge to Wilken and Black.) -Wade Miley 1 year, 13 MM (Why leave a good situation? Might need to tack on an option year, but has proven to be a tremendous marriage.) -William Contreras 5 years 87 million, 2027 team option for 15 MM (Cornerstone of next "run" extended for prime years alongside Chourio. Gets money similar to brother upfront at a time when we've just shedded Burnes/Williams/Adames salary in exchange for team friendly option and relief at end of deal when some of the younger guys will start getting increasingly expensive.) Trades: -Randy Arozarena acquired from TB for Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, and Carlos Rodriguez (Need to face that we have a glut of OFers and the fact that not all of them are going to pan out. Wiemer, Mitchell, and Rodriguez give the Rays the cheap, controllable assets they so desperately crave and we get 3 of Arozarena's prime seasons to maintain competitiveness during transition. Basically, Adames trade redux) -Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames to LAD for Emmet Sheehan, Nick Frasso, Joendry Vargas (Burnes goes home and Adames solves the Dodgers' SS conundrum as they're desperate to cash in on Betts/Freeman few remaining prime years and prove 2020 wasn't a fluke. Sheehan takes Burnes' rotation spot and gives the Brewers the TOR upside they need alongside Misiorowski. Frasso starts in bullpen and gives them more young SP depth. Vargas pretty dang good "lottery ticket" who could eventually end up as the Brewers' next top prospect/SS of the future) -Devin Williams and Hoby Milner to BAL for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall (Ortiz blocked in Baltimore and gets to replace Adames, while serving as a bridge to the 2023 draft guys. Brewers ask for Hall as they try go back to 2018 style bullpen and throw in Milner to ease loss. Devin gets to fill in the void currently left by Bautista and then later team up with Bautista to form the most dominant 1-2 punch in baseball,) C: William Contreras ($10M) 1B: Justin Turner ($16M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M) SS: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) LF: Randy Arozarena ($7M) CF: Jackson Chourio ($1.50M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) DH: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) Bench OF: Blake Perkins ($0.77M) Utility: Jake Bauers ($1.5M) Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) Backup C: Jeferson Quero ($0.77M)* SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP2: Wade Miley ($13M) SP3: Emmet Sheehan ($0.77M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M) CL: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: DL Hall ($0.77M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) RP: Nick Frasso ($0.77M) RP: Robert Gasser-6th starter ($0.77M) *Note: I don't actually think Quero is going to start the year in the majors due to service time considerations, but I do think he's going to get called up midseason and start sharing time w/ Contreras who helps with Yelich back management at DH. They'll sign a stopgap though I don't have a specific name to plug in. Don't think it's going to be Caratini. A roster that is competitive now and extremely competitive over the next 5-8 years. Payroll is 26.16% under budget

Signings: -Justin Turner 1 year, 16 MM -Wade Miley 1 year, 13 MM -William Contreras 5 years 87 million, 2027 team option for 15 MM Trades: -Randy Arozarena acquired from TB for Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, and Carlos Rodriguez. -Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames to LAD for Emmet Sheehan, Nick Frasso, Joendry Vargas -Devin Williams to BAL for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 1B: Justin Turner ($16M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M) SS: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) LF: Randy Arozarena ($26.00M) CF: Jackson Chourio ($1.50M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) Bench OF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.77M) Utility: Abraham Toro ($1.30M) SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M) CL: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) Payroll is 48.71% under budget

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I don't think so if you get one or two team friendly options added to that. Give him more money upfront now and get 2-3 additional seasons in his prime when the cost of our other young guys is going to go up. We can do it, especially if we trade Burnes.

I'd be comfortable if the Brewers decided to give him around the same contract the Cardinals gave his brother right now and buy out a couple years of his FA. Could do his brother's 5/87 with an option year or two tacked on. Contreras is only like a month or two older than Adley Rutschman, who everyone considers to be the next big thing at C, and he outproduced Adley last year by fWAR....

Yeah, no way Holliday signs a deal like this with his large signing bonus, money background, and the fact that he's a Boras client. Thank god Chourio didn't hire that guy to represent him. I think Contreras is a great extension candidate, even with the presence of Quero. Guy just produced one of the top C fWAR seasons in franchise history at 25 years old. Can always move him to DH or trade Quero to shore up an area of weakness. I'd probably hold off on the others for now, though I'd be paying close attention to Black, Frelick, etc. because once/if they start hitting at the major league level you'd want to pounce pretty quickly.