Brewcrew82

Well I’m not saying cause any physical harm to the guy or do anything else stupid along those lines, but yeah this is a betrayal of the highest order…

Someone’s not welcome in Milwaukee anymore.

Non-tenders: Rowdy Tellez, Abraham Toro Trades: Devin Williams to BAL for LHP DL Hall, IF Joey Ortiz, LHP Luis De Léon Tyrone Taylor to SF for RHP Mason Black Signings: Brandon Woodruff 2 years, $18 million Rhys Hoskins 1 year, $13 million Trevor Bauer 1 year, $13 million Comments: This is a roster that's built to win now and in the future, which is the Brewers' MO as we all know. While Burnes is kept until at least the deadline and potentially until the end of the season for a comp pick, Devin Williams is traded to the Orioles for a package of DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, and Luis De Léon. Hall is the Brewers' most electric left handed relief arm since Hader, and the Brewers' go to a closer by committee without Williams. Joey Ortiz is brought in to push Turang at the plate and compete with him for the starting 2B gig and to be Adames' successor. De Léon gives the Brewers a high upside arm to put in the pitching lab. In FA, the Brewers take advantage of a pair of bargains in Hoskins and Bauer. Hoskins gives the Brewers the power infusion they sorely need, while he in turn gets to prove he deserves a multiyear deal next winter. Bauer gets to return to MLB in a low pressure environment in Milwaukee and effectively serves as Woody's replacement. Woody, btw, gets his wish to stay in MKE with a one year extension. In the OF, Taylor is traded to SF for an upside arm, while Yelich is moved to DH. This frees up space for Jackson Chourio, who makes the OD roster as the Brewers go all out for the PPI pick. He becomes the face of the franchise. Wiemer, meanwhile, gets to work on his mechanics in AAA. Black also makes the OD roster and sees time at the corners. C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 1B: Rhys Hoskins ($13.00M) 2B: Brice Turang/Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M) SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M) LF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.77M) RF: Jackson Chouro ($0.77M) DH: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) Bench OF: Blake Perkins ($0.77M) Utility: Brice Turang/Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) Backup C: Henry/Quero ($0.77M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($15.10M) SP2: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP3: Trevor Bauer ($13.00M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M) CL: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: DL Hall ($0.77M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) Payroll is 21.18% under budget

A couple things: First of all, you'd obviously give him some major league run before offering such a deal. Wait until he proves himself at a high level. That mitigates some of the risk right there. Second, not all top 5 prospects are created equal. Guys like Crawford, Russell, and Rosario were shortstops who were ranked highly due to their elite gloves at a premium defensive position and who showed promising tools with the bat at a time when the average offensive production for shortstops was severely depressed across baseball. They didn't necessarily have the same minor league production with the bat as some of these other guys, but were ranked highly due to the floor provided by the glove combined with the upside to hit at a high level for a shortstop. Some, like Crawford, eventually realized their offensive potential, while others, like Rosario and Russell, never did. Chourio is not really comparable to them, however, as his offensive production in the minors pretty clearly outpaces theirs. Also, some of these other guys, like Swanson, Bryant, Ackley, Benintendi were drafted out of college. They tend to have a safer floor, but not as high a ceiling. While Ackley was a pure "bust", each of Swanson, Bryant, and Benintendi have established themselves in the majors and experienced their share of success, yet have fallen short of superstar status, which is to be expected from college picks with limited ceilings. Chourio wouldn't even be draft eligible out of college until 2025, so again, not really comparable. If you want to compare Chourio to previous top 5 prospects, he'd go into a tier with Julio Rodriguez, Tatis Jr., Acuna, Vlad Jr, Trout, Profar, Harper, etc. These are guys who all reached full-season ball at 18 years of age and proceeded to light it up with the bat, as Chourio did last year when he was the MVP of the Carolina League with a 160 wRC+ and .324/.373/.600 slash line. He then made it to AA, which only Tatis and Harper did. This is by far the tier with the best track record, as only Profar failed to become a superstar, and that was largely a result of injuries early in his career. Interestingly, Chourio's career minor league OPS of .837 is almost identical to Acuna's (.841).... As for Chourio's numbers in AA this year, he had a slower first half due to the pre-tacked ball experiment in the Southern League which severely affected the spin and movement of pitches and led to a lot more weak contact and swing and miss. Meanwhile, Jackson Holliday did not have to deal with this as he played in a different league that used the regular ball. Once the ball went back to normal in the second half, Chourio essentially repeated his dominance from last year with a slash line of .323/.380/.544. This actually was superior to Jackson Holliday's second half slash line of .313/.412/.470. So, while Chourio's not a surefire superstar (no prospect is), his type of profile is historically as close as it gets...Which is why I'm personally eager to lock him up sooner than later.

Yep. I'm perfectly content keeping Burnes and going after another division title if the best we're going to get is Busch from the Dodgers. You can always wait until the deadline too when FA market isn't a consideration.

Trevor Bauer also. I think a team is going to sign him this offseason

We need power at 1B and throughout the rest of the lineup. Canha is going to be 35. He isn't suddenly going to start hitting 20+ HRs. Take the upside relief arm and move forward.

Because "1B is still an open position" a few days into the offseason the Brewers are definitely going the rebuild route? What?

Important to keep in mind these guys he's playing against are almost a decade older than him on average.

Yeah. Not much interest for Lux. Would want Sheehan or Pepiot.

I'll take a trade of Wade Miley for money towards Rhys Hoskins or Mitch Garver.

Those articles are a bit outdated. No way am I taking any of Lawlar, PCA, Skenes, or Wood to win NL ROY over Chourio right now and with how he finished the season. I suspect the odds when they come out will reflect that. In hindsight, his struggles in AA at the end of the 2022 season were foreshadowing of his struggles there early this year. He did the exact opposite this time in his AAA cameo, with his .333/.375/.476 slash line in 6 games. I think he's already had his learning curve moment as a prospect. Most emblamatic of that imo is how heavily his contact and strikeout rates improved since the first month of the season even with the tacked ball. He was one of the biggest gainers in that department across the minors. Again, I'm not too worried about any service time considerations with Chourio as I'm doing everything in my power to lock him up to an extension shortly after his debut a la Carroll, Rodriguez, Acuna, etc. You may be right and the Brewers may think differently, but that is my perspective.

On the subject of the comp pick, worth noting that Chourio is probably the favorite for NL ROY right now. I think if he earns it in ST you do it and not think twice, and an early contract extension will take care of any service time concerns.

Okay. So much I have issue with here. Including your interpretation of my argument. But I’ll let you have the last word.

They literally did the exact same thing you're proposing the past two off-seasons where they signed all of the top free agents, and it did end up backfiring on them this year especially, Their 40 year old aces predictably got injured, they received declining production from Marte, Escobar, Canha, Escobar, etc. Look at the Padres, too. Yeah, they can spend to their heart's content, but that is not a guarantor of success. Plus, they've already said they're not planning to contend in 2024.... Anyways, all I was saying is that, right now, the Brewers and Guardians are arguably starting from a better position organizationally due to the elite talent acquisition and development systems they already have in place and have had in place for a while now (the Brewers top 3 farm system being one of the byproducts). Stearns is just starting building the Mets'. It will take time. Spending like the Mets have the capability to do can help hasten that process and chip away at/eliminate the gap, but Stearns is also unproven when it comes to making big-dollar free agent signings. He could be Chris Young or he could also be Preller. Is that enough to make CC think that he has to take Mets job in order to win a title? I don't know. But I don't think it's the no-brainer it's being portrayed as, and for that reason, among a couple others, I suspect he comes back. We'll have to agree to disagree regarding his comments about winning a title in MKE ringing hollow in the event he ditches us for the Mets. I feel very strongly that they would.

This is really long and hard to follow, but two things: 1) They already tried buying their way to a title like you're proposing, and it backfired on them. They're lucky they were able to get out of the Correa deal. They traded Scherzer and Verlander because they weren't planning on contending in 2024, and Cohen hired Stearns to build something more sustainable like the Dodgers. That will take time. 2) Brewers are a consensus top 5/3 farm system. Mets are on the outside fringes of the top 10, if that. That difference matters.

You wait a year to offer Chourio a deal it might be too late.... He's not comparable to either Hiura or Singleton as he's a 19 year old that has reached AAA. He just set the record for HRs in AA by a teenager. Compare him to Carroll, Acuna, Rodriguez, Tatis Jr. Because those are the players who have done what he's done at his age.

Looks like the Rangers are going to leave us, the Padres, the Rays, the Rockies, and the Mariners as the only teams without a World Series title.

Wait, so teams don't actually have unlimited money to spend like some people think?

Mets have a huge $ advantage over the Brewers for sure, but the Brewers are arguably starting in a better position organizationally with their young talent and top 3 farm system. I think if Attanasio matches his other offers, CC comes back. There's no guarantee he'd ever get another chance to manage in Milwaukee, and I wouldn't assume his reputation wouldn't suffer if he left for the Mets.

Add Ken Rosenthal as someone who thinks CC ends up back in Milwaukee...Of course, he says that's dependent on whether the Brewers offer him what he thinks is a fair price. So, who knows. d

Your obsession with me is one of the most bizarre things I’ve ever encountered. It’s pure childishness. All I literally did was share articles from two insiders who both say that Cleveland is a long shot and that CC most likely ends up back in Milwaukee. It’s not even my opinion (I personally think it’s more 50/50 he comes back) and nowhere did I say him signing a contract with the Brewers is imminent. And, yes, generally the goal of rebuilding is to build up your farm system to an elite level through a tear down of your major league roster and then tanking. However, per literally all of the major outlets, the Brewers already have an elite farm system, with each of their top 6 prospects at the upper levels of the minors. Thus, a rebuild=unnecessary.

Except he prefaces it by saying, "I was told by a top MLB source"... I'd imagine that's his usual format for his columns. FWIW, Heyman also said virtually the same thing the other day... https://nypost.com/2023/10/26/sports/mets-money-may-not-be-enough-to-lure-craig-counsell-from-brewers/