Brewcrew82

JS reporting it as done.

Lol. Tell me you don't know what you're talking about without telling me you don't know what you're talking about.

Never said it wasn't a youth movement, but the strategy is still perpetual competitiveness/bites of the apple. It's transitioning while still being competitive, which Arozarena helps achieve.

No more than trading top value assets in Peralta and Williams to the Orioles for less than their full value to help ease the sting for Elias the prospect hoarder.

If it was full-on youth movement/rebuild I would’ve traded Peralta and not signed Miley or Turner. Rather, this is simply more perpetual competitiveness and bites of the apple. Trade Burnes and Adames because they’re expiring assets, but get guys back who can help you now and set you up nicely for the future. Same idea with Williams You don’t need someone who lines up perfectly with the rest of the core’s timeline when you also have Lara, Rodriguez, etc coming through and Black who could also be moved to an OF corner once Arozarena leaves in FA in 3 years. Meanwhile, if you believe as I do that Mitchell, Wiemer, and Rodriguez have serious bust potential, you’re cashing in before their value drops further.

As I explained above, you're cashing in on OF depth for a more surefire power upgrade and to maintain competitiveness during transition. I think Mitchell and Wiemer are the young guys most likely to bust due to K issues and we have Lara, Yophery etc. coming through the pipeline once Arozarena would reach FA. I wouldn't say that. Seems like a decent pitching staff to me. Young and unproven, but strikeouts will be there, especially from the pen. Freddy around a top 20 pitcher going forward as he hits his prime. Miley maybe takes a step back, but still hopefully gives you around 120-130 innings of sub 4.00 ERA ball. Sheehan your ascending stud. Houser and Rea steady presence at back of rotation. Maybe one middle of the rotation/innings eater short, but that's why you have Frasso, Hall, Gasser, and eventually Misiorowski (all starting prospects) coming out of the pen and/or acting as the 6th man. So, more like 2018 as we deal with the losses of Burnes and Woodruff. In an ideal world, I'd sign Bauer instead of Miley, but I don't know if they're willing to go there.

Signings: -Justin Turner 1 year, 16 MM (They've been trying to sign Turner for years now. Now as good of time as ever. Bridge to Wilken and Black.) -Wade Miley 1 year, 13 MM (Why leave a good situation? Might need to tack on an option year, but has proven to be a tremendous marriage.) -William Contreras 5 years 87 million, 2027 team option for 15 MM (Cornerstone of next "run" extended for prime years alongside Chourio. Gets money similar to brother upfront at a time when we've just shedded Burnes/Williams/Adames salary in exchange for team friendly option and relief at end of deal when some of the younger guys will start getting increasingly expensive.) Trades: -Randy Arozarena acquired from TB for Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, and Carlos Rodriguez (Need to face that we have a glut of OFers and the fact that not all of them are going to pan out. Wiemer, Mitchell, and Rodriguez give the Rays the cheap, controllable assets they so desperately crave and we get 3 of Arozarena's prime seasons to maintain competitiveness during transition. Basically, Adames trade redux) -Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames to LAD for Emmet Sheehan, Nick Frasso, Joendry Vargas (Burnes goes home and Adames solves the Dodgers' SS conundrum as they're desperate to cash in on Betts/Freeman few remaining prime years and prove 2020 wasn't a fluke. Sheehan takes Burnes' rotation spot and gives the Brewers the TOR upside they need alongside Misiorowski. Frasso starts in bullpen and gives them more young SP depth. Vargas pretty dang good "lottery ticket" who could eventually end up as the Brewers' next top prospect/SS of the future) -Devin Williams and Hoby Milner to BAL for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall (Ortiz blocked in Baltimore and gets to replace Adames, while serving as a bridge to the 2023 draft guys. Brewers ask for Hall as they try go back to 2018 style bullpen and throw in Milner to ease loss. Devin gets to fill in the void currently left by Bautista and then later team up with Bautista to form the most dominant 1-2 punch in baseball,) C: William Contreras ($10M) 1B: Justin Turner ($16M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M) SS: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) LF: Randy Arozarena ($7M) CF: Jackson Chourio ($1.50M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) DH: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) Bench OF: Blake Perkins ($0.77M) Utility: Jake Bauers ($1.5M) Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) Backup C: Jeferson Quero ($0.77M)* SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP2: Wade Miley ($13M) SP3: Emmet Sheehan ($0.77M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M) CL: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: DL Hall ($0.77M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) RP: Nick Frasso ($0.77M) RP: Robert Gasser-6th starter ($0.77M) *Note: I don't actually think Quero is going to start the year in the majors due to service time considerations, but I do think he's going to get called up midseason and start sharing time w/ Contreras who helps with Yelich back management at DH. They'll sign a stopgap though I don't have a specific name to plug in. Don't think it's going to be Caratini. A roster that is competitive now and extremely competitive over the next 5-8 years. Payroll is 26.16% under budget

Signings: -Justin Turner 1 year, 16 MM -Wade Miley 1 year, 13 MM -William Contreras 5 years 87 million, 2027 team option for 15 MM Trades: -Randy Arozarena acquired from TB for Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, and Carlos Rodriguez. -Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames to LAD for Emmet Sheehan, Nick Frasso, Joendry Vargas -Devin Williams to BAL for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 1B: Justin Turner ($16M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M) SS: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) LF: Randy Arozarena ($26.00M) CF: Jackson Chourio ($1.50M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) Bench OF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.77M) Utility: Abraham Toro ($1.30M) SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M) CL: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) Payroll is 48.71% under budget

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I don't think so if you get one or two team friendly options added to that. Give him more money upfront now and get 2-3 additional seasons in his prime when the cost of our other young guys is going to go up. We can do it, especially if we trade Burnes.

I'd be comfortable if the Brewers decided to give him around the same contract the Cardinals gave his brother right now and buy out a couple years of his FA. Could do his brother's 5/87 with an option year or two tacked on. Contreras is only like a month or two older than Adley Rutschman, who everyone considers to be the next big thing at C, and he outproduced Adley last year by fWAR....

Yeah, no way Holliday signs a deal like this with his large signing bonus, money background, and the fact that he's a Boras client. Thank god Chourio didn't hire that guy to represent him. I think Contreras is a great extension candidate, even with the presence of Quero. Guy just produced one of the top C fWAR seasons in franchise history at 25 years old. Can always move him to DH or trade Quero to shore up an area of weakness. I'd probably hold off on the others for now, though I'd be paying close attention to Black, Frelick, etc. because once/if they start hitting at the major league level you'd want to pounce pretty quickly.

What we should really do is trade one or a combination of Wiemer/Mitchell/Frelick for Randy Arozarena, with Lara/Yophery supplementing the lost depth and replacing Arozarena once he departs in FA.

Also, it's like they've read this board and are directly rebutting one @JefferyLeonard because they say they'd much rather do a deal like this with its massive upside than spend a similar to greater amount on FAs in their early to mid 30s who flame out almost just as much as top prospects (e.g., Chapman, Matt).

Highly recommend this listen from the guys over at BA. Chourio deal is the first thing they discuss. They absolutely love the deal, saying that Chourio still will provide meaningful value even if he doesn't develop all the way with the bat while the upside is Acuna-like/superstar. Also note that the hit rate for top 5/3 position player prospects is remarkably high. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/future-projection-episode-69-the-state-of-nl-west-farm-systems/

Since we're the Braves now, real question is how much the Brewers are going to get Chourio to donate to the Brewers Community Foundation.

Wonder how soon the Brewers add him to the 40 man once this goes down officially. I suppose they could wait up until OD, but this deal effectively takes up a spot.

I get that and just curious though I will note he put up a 145 wRC+ after the end of the pre-tacked ball, which skewed things pretty heavily. And then proceeded to be a top 5 hitter (.983 OPS) in the Venezuelan Winter League where the average age is more than 9 years older.

Curious how you could be critical of Chourio given he's done things that only a handful of teenagers have ever done and most have no business doing and possesses plus to plus plus tools across the board... He can be a bit overaggressive and doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he's also 19 years old playing in the upper minors. I just don't see that much to be critical of.

Maybe it would be competitive, though that SP staff is really weak and would probably be their undoing. But I see no reason to trade Freddy for those packages you outlined when his value should be similar a year from now.

I don’t see a need to trade Freddy in addition to Burnes unless blown away which those proposals don’t really do. Freddy’s value isn’t going to be much different a year from now and the team has repeatedly stated they desire to be perennially competitive and not adopt a full-on rebuild.

Chourio’s minor league slash line is almost identical to Acuna’s and they’re both among only 4 teenagers to ever put up a 20-40 season, with Chourio's occurring entirely in the high minors….. Franco and Soto also didn’t have to deal with a pretacked ball…

Ahhh, lunatic hour wouldn't truly be complete without the drawing of an equivalency between the NBA and MLB's salary structure....

Sheehan or bust. This return is terrible because both Busch and Pepiot are on the older side. Plus Busch can’t defend and has shown some worrying signs with the bat in his brief MLB experience. Hard to see the Brewers having much interest in him given what transpired with Hiura.