UpandIn

That seems about right. Maybe a bit short, but close to what seems reasonable. I wonder if the Brewers approach has been to encourage their hitters to swing more freely. Adames has had a pretty good walk rate that was outstanding last year when he spent part of the year with the Rays and then dropped this year. Wong talked about it, about liking the freedom the Brewers gave him to not shorten up on 2 strike pitches. Their prospects seem like they're going to emphasize OBP...that needs to translate though.

I fully understand why people want to sign him. I don't understand why people think things have changed so much because a couple players got massive long term deals. Neither set any type of precedent. Nor do I understand why we'd possibly pay him the same AAV as Trea Turner with 2 years to go before FA. If he wants a 6/110, fine. 27 a year puts him in the 7/190 range and that makes...absolutely no sense in my opinion. You'd be projecting Adames as the 2021 version with the BB rate approaching 12%(in Milwaukee) with the 2022 HRs numbers and the fielding. I could easily see it happening. That he puts it all together. There's no reason to pay for THAT production that you'd be hoping for right now. You pay him based on what he's done and the 2 years left of team control or you let it play out and then deal him in '24. That's how I see it...and I get why people want to sign him. We're better when we have people like Adames in the dugout. Players that keep the team loose, who can hit and field, who seemingly love the game like...Lindor(who still held out for 345M) but you don't pay them top of the market FA money until they've shown they're better than those players or...they're FAs and then you let someone else do it.

What the hell? They turned Ruiz into Contreras and two pitchers, one with a 100 MPH fastball and the other...well, screw it, who cares about the other. How did they get the Braves to not only trade Contreras, but trade him for THAT package? This feels like a trade in which something isn't being reported. Like a PTBNL or the 33rd pick in the draft.... How did the Brewers insert themselves into this trade and walk away with a 24 year old AS catcher who...by the way, had a 1.000 OPS vs lefties last year?

Seems like the biggest difference was he had better luck last year.

I don't really understand what revenue sharing teams means at this point. You read part of the 2018 CBA and it was all the teams that didn't go over the tax. It also says the Athletics were being phased out of the teams in the revenue sharing recipients and now they're back in that group. It seems like it has to mean different standards with regard to which teams are part of the 48% of revenue that gets divided up vs which teams get the competitive balance picks, but the MLB CBA is not all that clear to me. The NFL and NBAs is a lot more straight forward. The rules with the local TV deals and how much each team has to pay from their own deals and how it's impacted by the "risk" they take...it's a lot to sift through.

Yeah...that really is and it kinda went off the rails for me. I do think we probably get into the playoffs with Hader and that using WAR for a reliever over less than 2 months is not really reflective of their actual value. Hader bounced back, he was dominant for them down the stretch, you could pencil him into the 9th and he'd shut down the other team. You're basically looking at a couple blowups(Which we had as well). If you put Hader back into the pen with Williams in the 8th and Box/Cousins and whoever in the 7th, I think we do win more than 87 games. I also don't really care at this point and I think there's a lot of effort to minimize Gasser and Ruiz. Gasser had a stretch where he struggled with control in AAA? Yeah...most pitching prospects do. I don't think the Padres can say they "fixed" Hader. You take a guy who had a Burnes like 2020 and turn him around and you "fixed" him. Someone who had a couple of blowup's for the Brewers had just that...a couple of blowups.

Yeah, I got that, I just didn't understand why you worded it like that. "Just gotta finish top 2," sounds like it's more about draft pick compensation to me, but...ok. Cleveland should be getting one for Kwan, an top prospect who probably makes top 100 lists if he's drafted higher as he produced all the way through the minors.

There's a few points on here I don't get. "Just gotta finish top 2?" I think it's top 3 for an eligible player. And I don't think Frelick playing over 100 games means he started the season on the active roster. Just as likely means he...became the starter and then the everyday player once they gained an extra year. You're really limiting the ROY list by only counting the guys finished 2nd. I mean...there's a wide range of games he could play without being on the OD roster. Could play 113 as Braun did after being a Super 2, could play 134 after gaining the extra year like Bryan Reynolds did...

Sure...that's another good point. That's why I just don't see the it's either opening day or the trade deadline for Frelick. I don't think we can afford to really play around. We're putting so many chips in the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames basket, you can't go most of the season without what very well could be our best hitter in terms of BA and OBP(*COULD be).

This makes very little sense to me. It's one thing to keep a guy down for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of service time. It's another to keep a guy down who projects to be one of your best players for the first 5 months just in case he fits into what at the moment is a poorly designed incentive for draft picks. You have to be willing to bet on him winning a ROY award(or top 3 finish) in order to be willing to forgo the extra year. So why does that translate to the trade deadline? Carroll, Walker, Alvarez, Cavilli, Perez, Painter, there are a LOT of extremely talented rookies. They could also start him on the OD roster, see how he's playing. I don't think it's either OD or after the trade deadline though. That feels...hyperbolic.

They usually play the 162 games over 186 days I believe. 171 days or fewer is less than 1 year of service time. So a couple weeks. Or you send them down for a couple weeks at some point(which can be tough with a guy like Frelick if he starts out hot).

Oh...silly me. I could have SWORN you were talking about them relying on too many rookies rather than a literal chronological order or when the rookies arrived(in which case, he'd STILL only be behind Mitchell if I understand how...counting works). LOL...why are you so angry? You argued he hadn't spent enough time in the minors. Then you jumped into this thread(if feels like under multiple names) and played the victim without being mentioned...and why? Because people came up with a LOOOONG list of players who spent little time in AAA...including Brewers. But sure, "he should be an upgrade and in the lineup," is ABSOLUTELY the same as "the first player ever elected to the Hall of Fame before he retires." Just...take a breath bud.

They really don't ALL need to align. He's 29 and has a career line of ~.270/.375/.465. Just an average year from Winker and not his worst year would be a needle mover. And in his worst year, he STILL put up a .344 OBP.

I love how you think this has turned into ANYTHING about YOU or...really anything even tangentially about YOU and nobody has said you "hate" Frelick(mostly because people just don't care enough). In fact, it's really difficult to follow the logic in your posts. It went from someone who wasn't as high on Frelick to you jumping in with...this; Unprompted; Brewcrew82 And then you...not addressing the point AT ALL; So the GIANT fact was that you were "blasted" for not "anointing" Frelick as the ROY next year(which was never the argument, the argument was that he could finish top 3 in ROY...which is what you need to get draft pick compensation). Also, there's not some new "BE about how that's not what you meant." It's REAL simple what he he's saying. Frelick's one of the top candidates for ROY. Ergo, there's a strong chance he'll be on the OD roster. The only two reasons he WOULDN'T would be because they want that extra year of service time...which would mean leaving him in the minors for about 6 weeks so he has less than 172 days of service time. This was explained...probably 3, 4 times. Or if he's injured. Otherwise, he obviously should be on the roster. FINE!!! You're under the impression despite almost literally EVERY top prospect who has spent very little time at AAA once they play well there because...it's generally a level for older minor leaguers who are waiting for a callup and a place top prospects spend very little time means Frelick won't be a part of the plans for the everyday lineup and if he is...they might as well trade Burnes, Woodruff and Adames(that's logical and not hyperbolic). He's also CLEARLY not the 3rd rookie, he'd be the #1 rookie given the 70 hit tool and the dominance at the higher levels, the things Flanigan has said about him as a prospect(ya know, the guy in charge of overseeing prospect development). But here's the point...it's not that you DON'T think he'll be in the lineup...it's that you KEEP whining about it and making these claims that people will "blast you" for not saying he'll be ROY, an argument not one single person has made. And I'm sure all you'll get for this is "why do you hate Sal Frelick," so that was probably just a waste of time.

I don't have a problem with that, but just to play devils advocate; Turner is likely going to get 10-15M a year...even if it's just a year or two...I also still don't see him leaving LA. So not sure he's a real option. Also, looking a little more at Donaldson's defensive metrics, he was +6 OAA last year at 3rd, Turner was -2 and Turner has reverse splits(still hit lefties more than well enough to be a good fit). Now...IF the Yankees are looking to move off Donaldson and eat most of the deal, I think that might be a better or at least more realistic option. You would be hoping for a offensive bounce back from him, but he's just a year removed from a .943 OPS vs LHPing.

I love the defensive upgrades. I this is an ELITE lineup vs right handed pitchers. But we are absolutely brutal at this point vs lefties. We need to bring in at least 1 or 2 guys who can be the weak side of the platoon. I'm great with banking on Turang, Frelick...little less so with Mitchell, but his defense and his speed lower his floor. But are we going to be counting on Ruiz, Wiemer, Perkins, somebody at catcher who can hit lefties? Because we were bad last year and as I pointed out, we're losing 3 of our top 4 hitters vs lefties, including the only guy who had an OPS over ~.750 vs lefties in Renfroe. Winkler is a great bet on a bounce back. I did see one comment that made me scratch my head. That Winkler takes Renfroe's place as the clubhouse douche now? Never heard anyone say anything negative about Renfroe, but...whatever. If the Brewers can get lucky and Ruiz and Wiemer are ready and can hit lefties or just we as a team somehow find out a way to get better vs lefties, with the young players, speed, the contact, maybe Toro helps vs lefties and fulfills his potential as well. If those things happen, I could see us getting back to the 95-100 win team we were in '21. But those are some pretty big risks. The Yankees are looking to dump Josh Donaldson...who definitely IS a clown. And also very near the end. But they're reportedly willing to eat most of the contract in order to move him. I wonder if that's something we may consider? He wasn't good last year, but if the Yankees are eating 12M, he could get time at 1B/3B, Urias could kick over to 2B vs lefties or he's just a DH/1B? Still got plenty of glove for 1B. Just a thought if it's a very low risk deal in which the Yanks are looking to move a guy for a lotto ticket type return to open up 3B.

Prepare to hear how important AAA games are for elite prospects who continually get better on a year to year basis and how they need more AAA games despite an enormous list of prospect(including virtually every good prospect we've brought up in the last ~20 years and the top hitters in baseball) having played very little or now AAA ball...and many having played fewer games at AA as well. Also, the premise isn't even a good one. Frelick's Defense; How did Kwan put up 5.5 WAR last year? He hits for less power and is a worse fielder?

I REALLY hope not. We really will need to be able to hit left handed pitching at some point. Winkler would be perfect...if he was a right handed hitter.

Or Juan Soto, or Ryan Braun, or Albert Pujols, Or JJ Hardy or...MOST great players. Hiura is a particularly strange counter-point. So he came up, half a season, hit 19 HRs, hit over .300 with an OPS of ~.940. So it took a year for his being rushed to catch up to him? There is no point in keeping prospects in the minor for some arbitrary # of games that you believe to be significant. I think Soto had ~20 games above rookie ball. Kwan had even fewer games and is about as similar a player as you can get to Frelick(since I'm sure you'll get hung up on the Soto thing and suggest someone is claiming Frelick=Soto). He had 77 games in AA and AAA. There are a LOT of top prospects who skip levels or go straight from AA to MLB. Why? Because...again, no point in keeping a guy with an 1.100 OPS or a .365 BA in AAA when he can help your team just for the sake of more ABs.

I think that may have been part of the rationale behind Perkins. Really good vs lefties the last two years, can play all 3 OF positions. I doubt they're banking on him on the opening day, but he's a low risk signing and if he can just be a platoon player, he could have value. Maybe Ruiz fits in and they think more of him than we do. Or maybe there's some Willy Adames type trade we make but instead of a young arm, it's a 5 tool OFer like Mitchell. Turang can at least hit lefties well for a lefty. Wong had a OPS in the .400s last year. Also...Willy was a ~.280/.360 hitter for the Brewers in '21. Just that version of him for a full season would be huge. Though he too had reverse splits. Perhaps they'll trade Wong, try and shore up the catching position with Contreras...who knows at this point. That's unlikely, but they clearly have other moved planned. They have to if the plan is to "build around Burnes and Woodruff." It'd also be great if Wiemer stayed healthy and was a breakout star next year for us. He still has such a wide range of outcomes, I wouldn't be surprised if was a middle of the order hitter for us by next August.

Ok...so he was BETTER at AAA. Explain why that's a negative? And he played 6 fewer games at AAA than he did at AA(52 games) and he played less than 40 games at HiA. And he had a high BABIP....at all 3 levels, so it's not like he was lucky. He had an elite hit tool when we drafted him. He had a 7% K rate. He's ready. It's obvious he's ready. The only reason he wouldn't be in the OD roster would be due to service time or injury. "check themselves?" Are they in danger of wrecking themselves? Also, the person you quoted...very specifically said he expected Wiemer to make the 2024 Opening day roster and that he should make his debut at SOME point next year. So his inclusion here makes little sense.

I was simply using Chourio as an example. I don't think a K rate of 27% if it comes with a BB rate of 14% playing the most difficult position to develop is really a concern. Especially if that same player is putting up a .290 and .225 ISO slugging and hitting for as much power as Cartaya. Gunnar, Volpe, Gunnar, Elle De la Cruz, they all had high K rates with lower BB rates than Cartaya...and few hit for the same type of power. The 40 man thing is also...really really minor when talking about a prospect of that caliber. Even the Dodgers have guys on their 40 man that they could do without. Johnny DeLuca for example. A 25th round pick who's not among their top 30 prospects...who hasn't done anything particularly impressive and has a handful of games above HiA and will be 25 next year. But I also never suggested we trade for Cartaya. I just pointed out he wasn't among their top 30 prospects when I posted that link. For starters because...I'd just prefer to get arms back and the Dodgers have made it pretty clear they don't want to trade him after the Nats trade...and then their reluctance to include him this year in a deal for Soto. So if they did trade him, it'd likely be a 1 for 1 trade and I'd rather the Brewers get back a pitching prospect or 2. But I'm not sure they'd even include him in a trade unless it was for Woodruff or Burnes.

Vargas and then...they've got so many pitching prospects with big ceilings but you're probably right about Miller. Stone was a guy that they're supposedly very high on based on their reluctance to include him in a trade last deadline. Vargas plus any of the 3 would probably be a good deal. I just wonder if the Dodgers would do THAT deal. Vargas is a guy people think will contend for batting titles in the future. He can play 3B(*NOT well, but he can apparently play it) and he's cheap. For a team that would have had a payroll over 300 last year if not for Bauer's suspension, seems like they'd be better served to sign a FA and then keep the cheap young studs. But maybe they want to stay below the luxury tax line for a year to reset the penalties.

He's showing up again now, but when I posted this, Miller was #1 and I didn't see Cartaya on the list. I figured it was a mistake, but I thought maybe he'd been involved in some trade or...something. I've never seen him play, so I have no idea if he's overrated defensively. His defensive grades are good, 60 arm, 55 field, but a lot of passed balls and a lot pct of caught stealing. The strikeouts don't seem like they should be all that concerning. a 14% walk rate and a 27% K rate? Especially for a guy with a ~.300 ISO? Those seem...pretty reasonable. Compared to Chourio(for example) who had a similar K rate and half the BB rate...assuming a jump to 40% seems a little fatalistic. His K rate didn't jump when he went up to HiA, but his power and BB rate did. Obviously AA is a bigger jump, but...it was also his age 20 season. I won't argue with you on Quero though. I have seem him play and outside of walk rate, he looks like a pretty safe bet to be a solid MLB catcher if not more. He looks quick, we all saw how well he did in the AZF League. I thought he should be a top 100...and I suspect he will by next year. Meanwhile Dominguez almost couldn't be accurately rated. I've seen a lot of different comps for him, but MLB Pipeline uses Trout, Mantle and Bo Jackson. That is just...insane. But that's how it goes for Yankees prospects. When have they not been overrated? Maybe the Dodgers as well, but their prospects seem to hit more often.

Fair enough...they all get some credit. But I don't know how you pick out the team that he actually developed broke through with, become the best in MLB at what he does and say THAT team doesn't get credit for developing him. Jimmy Nelson is another guy who was ascending and if not an ace yet, was on the verge of becoming an ace. Whatever they're doing, that infrastructure should still be in place as Stearns obviously hasn't left yet, so it's not as though we're losing personnel.