UpandIn

Yeah, that's true. It's also just good to know. Maybe they don't reach an agreement and the Dodgers like him enough...AND need a CFer. Mitchell+Adames for Vargas/Miller plus...a couple of those power arms could make sense for both sides. Adds that big RHed bat, a potential TOR arm while the Dodgers saved 35M this year on Turner or Correa(which would destroy that fan base) and with Bellinger getting non-tendered, Mitchell would be a good fit in CF for them. The trade favors the Dodgers on the ever holy Trade Value Simulator, so they throw in Bruns or Knack...or both. The fans are are always...ridiculously undervaluing the return...probably in the same way I'm suggesting they give up two guys who will probably play huge roles for the next 6 years for cheap for Adames and Mitchell. Two elite prospects. I'm sure the wouldn't be what most of us want or that Friedman(or hopefully Arnold) uses that site. The Dodgers always find a way to keep the legit studs off limits while trading the Kiebert Ruiz rather than Cartaya or Bobby Miller as the Dodgers found out when they got hosed for Scherzer and two years of Turner. I am a little curious why Cartaya is no longer listed as their #1 prospect. Must be a mistake on MLB pipeline; https://www.mlb.com/prospects/dodgers/

I don't think you trade him with Burnes and call it a wash. First, I'd just write the 28M in deferred money to a sunk cost. I don't think a team is going to take that on. Second, not this year, but if he has another 3 WAR season next year, I'd agree to send ~40M with him in a deal, at which point a team would be paying roughly 5 years and 110M, 70M with the Brewers eating 40M of that money. At that point, his contract is more like Aaron Hicks, but he's a much better hitter. Then...maybe you can get out from a big chunk of that money and you'd have young players who could step in, play the OF, they'd be cheap and...MAYBE if a team was desperate you could make a trade. Not real likely, but also '22 Yelich isn't quite the albatross he's painted as. Especially as the shift should help him as much as just about anyone. Best case is he can get up to ~280/.370/.400 with the limited shift, be a valuable hitter atop the order and we just....live with it. Worst case is his back gets worse and we're stuck eating the whole contract and he's in and out of the lineup. So not much different than '21. The deal made a lot of sense, just...didn't work out. Kinda like the guy who won the MVP after him, Cody Bellinger...who the Dodgers had also tried to lock up. Just bad luck. I don't think it was the knee, I think it was the back, but whatever it is, he hits the ball hard still...just on the ground and to the right side of the IF. So again, hopefully the new rules benefit him.

I don't think you trade him with Burnes and call it a wash. First, I'd just write the 28M in deferred money to a sunk cost. I don't think a team is going to take that on. Second, not this year, but if he has another 3 WAR season next year, I'd agree to send ~40M with him in a deal, at which point a team would be paying roughly 5 years and 110M, 70M with the Brewers eating 40M of that money. At that point, his contract is more like Aaron Hicks, but he's a much better hitter. Then...maybe you can get out from a big chunk of that money and you'd have young players who could step in, play the OF, they'd be cheap and...MAYBE if a team was desperate you could make a trade. Not real likely, but also '22 Yelich isn't quite the albatross he's painted as. Especially as the shift should help him as much as just about anyone. Best case is he can get up to ~280/.370/.400 with the limited shift, be a valuable hitter atop the order and we just....live with it. Worst case is his back gets worse and we're stuck eating the whole contract and he's in and out of the lineup. So not much different than '21. The deal made a lot of sense, just...didn't work out. Kinda like the guy who won the MVP after him, Cody Bellinger...who the Dodgers had also tried to lock up. Just bad luck. I don't think it was the knee, I think it was the back, but whatever it is, he hits the ball hard still...just on the ground and to the right side of the IF. So again, hopefully the new rules benefit him.

What do you consider developing a pitcher then? Hader had spent a little time in AA for Houston. He got to Milwaukee, his K's kept going up, two years later he was the 33rd ranked prospect in one top 100, 38 in MLB Pipeline(he wasn't top 100 before the trade). Phillips and Santana were the top two prospects in that trade. Houser had thrown 33 innings above HiA. So who did develop Hader? The Orioles? The Astros? Or the team that spent the most time with him and turned him into a top 40 prospect? "Developing" a pitcher is a lot more than simply drafting him. It's...well, developing him into a MLB pitcher. With Lauer, they had him throw his slider about 11% more and his 4 seamer about 11% less... By the logic you're using, did we develop Peralta? We didn't draft him...at what point does the team that got him to the Majors get credit for developing him? Example...if Makenzie Gore breaks out and becomes an ace with the Nats, I'd consider them having developed him...particularly given his struggles, not the Padres who rode his raw talent and then didn't help him make the adjustments. Corey Knebel is another guy. We got him to change the way he pitched...he became an elite late inning reliever.

What do you consider developing a pitcher then? Hader had spent a little time in AA for Houston. He got to Milwaukee, his K's kept going up, two years later he was the 33rd ranked prospect in one top 100, 38 in MLB Pipeline(he wasn't top 100 before the trade). Phillips and Santana were the top two prospects in that trade. Houser had thrown 33 innings above HiA. So who did develop Hader? The Orioles? The Astros? Or the team that spent the most time with him and turned him into a top 40 prospect? "Developing" a pitcher is a lot more than simply drafting him. It's...well, developing him into a MLB pitcher. With Lauer, they had him throw his slider about 11% more and his 4 seamer about 11% less... By the logic you're using, did we develop Peralta? We didn't draft him...at what point does the team that got him to the Majors get credit for developing him? Example...if Makenzie Gore breaks out and becomes an ace with the Nats, I'd consider them having developed him...particularly given his struggles, not the Padres who rode his raw talent and then didn't help him make the adjustments. Corey Knebel is another guy. We got him to change the way he pitched...he became an elite late inning reliever.

Yeah...you're right. It's not possible the Brewers who are trading Renfroe and possibly Wong could afford a 1B projected to get ~15M a year(which would STILL leave them with a lower payroll than last year). I really thought you had more insight than this...I'm starting to realize, you don't really offer any insight.

Yeah...you're right. It's not possible the Brewers who are trading Renfroe and possibly Wong could afford a 1B projected to get ~15M a year(which would STILL leave them with a lower payroll than last year). I really thought you had more insight than this...I'm starting to realize, you don't really offer any insight.

I'd probably hold out and ask for another lower rated arm or two. Bruns, Kopp, Knack...a couple lower rated prospects with big velocity but other issues...usually command that's kinda holding them back.

Why does "everyone" on this board act like "everyone" makes these statements that aren't remotely true? The overwhelming majority of the Burnes/Woodruff discussion has been centered around IF either would sign for comparable deals. Woodruff->Luis Castillo and Burnes in the deGrom 5/135 range. Who has said that it's just up to the Brewers if players sign extensions? In fact I'd guess the majority of people have said it's unlikely either would sign an extension at this point. Same with Abreu. We know three things now about Abreu with regard to free agency. His preference was to stay in Chicago. He is "a top priority for the Padres." And he wants to continue to play 1B. I don't know how the numbers work out to 1% chance that he signs with the Brewers or what that's based off, but it's kinda silly. Maybe "everyone" should just stop speaking for "everyone?"

Why does "everyone" on this board act like "everyone" makes these statements that aren't remotely true? The overwhelming majority of the Burnes/Woodruff discussion has been centered around IF either would sign for comparable deals. Woodruff->Luis Castillo and Burnes in the deGrom 5/135 range. Who has said that it's just up to the Brewers if players sign extensions? In fact I'd guess the majority of people have said it's unlikely either would sign an extension at this point. Same with Abreu. We know three things now about Abreu with regard to free agency. His preference was to stay in Chicago. He is "a top priority for the Padres." And he wants to continue to play 1B. I don't know how the numbers work out to 1% chance that he signs with the Brewers or what that's based off, but it's kinda silly. Maybe "everyone" should just stop speaking for "everyone?"

Right...but is anyone assuming he makes the ML roster?

If you wait until they actually do it, it's not really a prediction or projection so much as an observation.

That's where Frelick should be huge for the Brewers. I just don't know what they're going to do to add right handed bats. Everyone keeps saying you can replace what Renfroe gave you by putting Frelick in there, but you can't. The power and...again, the ability to hit lefties is a big loss. We'll see where they end up, but that seemed like a very reasonable 1 year deal bridging the gap until Wiemer was ready. And I don't buy that because his chase rate was up from 33% to 34%, that's some indicator of things to come(especially as the point was made that his chase rate from '21 and '22 going up and the age of 31 being key indicators). It's a marginal tick up. Same with the BA with RISP. Yeah, you need to get guys who can put the ball in place, take an extra base, all those things. You could have added those things without getting rid of Renfroe. But until we see what this lineup looks like to start next year, I won't worry about it too much. But we're certainly not looking great at THIS moment. Expecting Wiemer to step in and replace what Renfroe did is asking a lot. I think Frelick as a whole can more than replace Renfroe, he was coming up either way. So again, I'll just wait and see how this off-season goes.

That's where Frelick should be huge for the Brewers. I just don't know what they're going to do to add right handed bats. Everyone keeps saying you can replace what Renfroe gave you by putting Frelick in there, but you can't. The power and...again, the ability to hit lefties is a big loss. We'll see where they end up, but that seemed like a very reasonable 1 year deal bridging the gap until Wiemer was ready. And I don't buy that because his chase rate was up from 33% to 34%, that's some indicator of things to come(especially as the point was made that his chase rate from '21 and '22 going up and the age of 31 being key indicators). It's a marginal tick up. Same with the BA with RISP. Yeah, you need to get guys who can put the ball in place, take an extra base, all those things. You could have added those things without getting rid of Renfroe. But until we see what this lineup looks like to start next year, I won't worry about it too much. But we're certainly not looking great at THIS moment. Expecting Wiemer to step in and replace what Renfroe did is asking a lot. I think Frelick as a whole can more than replace Renfroe, he was coming up either way. So again, I'll just wait and see how this off-season goes.

People keep stating this unequivocally. He may not be. He's on the 40 man roster. He hits righties. He's going to be in big league camp. It's hardly a stretch to see him breaking camp with the ML team...particularly as it would not look like Frelick, Yelich and Mitchell are in line for a LOT of playing time. Taylor is likely a lock to make it and then it'll come down to how ready they think Wiemer is and how this kid does in Spring Training, what they may do with a guy like Ruiz and who, if anyone else they acquire to play the OF. But at the moment, we're looking VERY weak vs righties and that just happens to be where he has excelled at the last two years. This was a signing that cost almost nothing. It won't be his fault if we lose Cam Devanney in the Rule5, they already made that call. He could be on another team by April, the 26 man or AAA. I sincerely doubt Chourio is going to force the issue in 2023. I'll be happy if he spends most the year in AA and he's healthy. He's an absolute stud...for a 18 year old kid who played at HiA this year, but it's premature to start talking about a place on the roster for him at this point. Wiemer is obviously a reasonable candidate. Wouldn't shock me to see him put up a 5 WAR season playing elite RF, stealing bases and if he gets hot, even putting up a .270/.350/.500 line. I could also see him being Jared Kelenic. I don't care if a guy strikes out 30% of the time if he's making loud contact and taking pitches...but Wiemer is also a guy who's up and down, has only 40 games at AAA. But of course, he could force the issue and take that RF spot and make the Brewers look brilliant.

Is that what they settled on? That makes more sense as Khris Bryant in particular was the type of situation they were attempting to remedy...making a player like that a FA a year earlier, but I've found contradictory statements. I'd nix the top 100 ranking and keep the full season credit. It really is nonsense that Brice Turang cannot net the Brewers a comp pick based on such an arbitrary set of rankings...and one that he's appeared on before. At least as of now. He may make one of the...three lists they go off. MLB, BA and...ESPN. That's an absolute joke. We may be subjected to the whims of Keith Law when determining who gets an extra draft pick and another...million plus in the bonus pool. Awesome. A guy who's so humble and willing to admit he's wrong... They also lose that year no matter what...So if you DID wait to bring Wiemer up(for example as he's one of the two players who'll be on top 100 lists that have any shot of getting called up next year) you could wait until June, he could have a Ryan Braun like rookie year and you both lose time AND you don't get a comp pick. That's kinda stupid. Give him the year of service time, but leaving Wiemer down in AAA isn't necessarily manipulating service time. Leaving Frelick down would be. So if I'm reading this right, both Burnes and Woodruff would have qualified for a PPI pick...but as you can get just the one, we'd have gotten one for Burnes while just missing out in 2020 and this past year. As an aside, it's nice watching two Cards cast offs finish 1st and 5th in Cy Young voting for different teams.

Perkins crushes Left Handed hitters whereas Mitchell doesn't. So he could slide into a platoon role IF he has a good ST'ing and they want to start the year with a couple of these OFers in AAA. 2022- .310/.406/.483 2021- .298/.412/.478 He's hit righties very poorly. So he fits with Frelick/Mitchell/Yelich...maybe buys them some time. Or maybe he's off the roster by January and they make a bunch of other moves. I don't know, at the moment, seems like a fine deal.

I don't disagree with what Brewcrew82 has said in this thread...but I'm also not sure how Perkins shows they're going for a different style of ball? He's a good athlete, walks a lot but strikes out and his hit tool is clearly his biggest hole in his game. He's a ~.245-250 hitter at the higher levels. We've clearly trying to get guys who can manufacture runs, use their speed, they make contact more. What I do like about him is that he crushes lefties. Which...as of now, we BADLY need.

Do they have to be on the OD roster though? They just have to be ranked in the top 100(so no chance for Turang...which makes it REALLY stupid IMO) and that's it...I think.

Right...and again, to be clear, I wasn't actually suggesting I thought that deal would get it done. I guess it's possible as every team has their own scouting reports, but I'd think they could get better value and players who offer more immediate returns and certainty at the big league level as they look like they're a legitimate contender as of now.

Right...and again, to be clear, I wasn't actually suggesting I thought that deal would get it done. I guess it's possible as every team has their own scouting reports, but I'd think they could get better value and players who offer more immediate returns and certainty at the big league level as they look like they're a legitimate contender as of now.

I didn't say he was a "throw in" type player, I said I'd throw him into that deal as A-He fits what Toronto needs(they went out and got JBJ to get a left handed hitting CFer last year) and Lauer for Kirk is SOOO far away from being worth it for Toronto, it's not even funny. I don't think it'll matter though as I don't think the Blue Jays would seriously entertain Lauer, Mitchell and Wong for Kirk. They'd almost certainly want Frelick and even at that point, I don't know if they make that deal for Kirk and they definitely don't for Moreno.

I didn't say he was a "throw in" type player, I said I'd throw him into that deal as A-He fits what Toronto needs(they went out and got JBJ to get a left handed hitting CFer last year) and Lauer for Kirk is SOOO far away from being worth it for Toronto, it's not even funny. I don't think it'll matter though as I don't think the Blue Jays would seriously entertain Lauer, Mitchell and Wong for Kirk. They'd almost certainly want Frelick and even at that point, I don't know if they make that deal for Kirk and they definitely don't for Moreno.

Agreed...though I sure as hell wouldn't give a 2nd thought about dealing him for Kirk. I'd throw in Mitchell and Wong. Fill two more needs for the Jays, left handed bat and another good defensive OFer and a 2B. Right now, they've got 9 RHed hitters in their lineup. Moreno is ready to play right now. So they've got 3 catchers. I don't think any are getting dealt for that particular package save for maybe Jansen. Could solve the catching problem and our issues vs lefties. And, again, assuming it's Jansen as the other two seem just that much more valuable with their service time...even if Kirk is less than ideal as an everyday catch, it'd be a good bridge to Quero. Quero should start in HiA I'd guess...given the limited # of at bats. Gives him 2 years to be our primary catcher. It's a stretch, but if we're going to deal Lauer, it should be part of a package for a significant upgrade.

Agreed...though I sure as hell wouldn't give a 2nd thought about dealing him for Kirk. I'd throw in Mitchell and Wong. Fill two more needs for the Jays, left handed bat and another good defensive OFer and a 2B. Right now, they've got 9 RHed hitters in their lineup. Moreno is ready to play right now. So they've got 3 catchers. I don't think any are getting dealt for that particular package save for maybe Jansen. Could solve the catching problem and our issues vs lefties. And, again, assuming it's Jansen as the other two seem just that much more valuable with their service time...even if Kirk is less than ideal as an everyday catch, it'd be a good bridge to Quero. Quero should start in HiA I'd guess...given the limited # of at bats. Gives him 2 years to be our primary catcher. It's a stretch, but if we're going to deal Lauer, it should be part of a package for a significant upgrade.