UpandIn

Makes sense. A bit of a logjam. I've thought I'll be interesting to look back at the 2020-2021 NFL, MLB, NBA drafts and see how they compare to normal years. Will we see more prospects who went later in the draft, guys who...say in the NFL would have risen if they'd have the combine process, or UDFAs from the last year in Baseball(or maybe 4th round picks from Cincinnati) exceed expectations. 2020 is going to have lasting implications for HS kids who didn't get a Sr year of sports, for fringe players who couldn't catch onto a practice squad and prospects who weren't invited to the alternate training site and ended up in independent ball. all stories I'm sure we'll hear about in the future. But it'll be interesting to follow.

I didn't even think about this, but with no Rule5 draft last year...anyone think it's more likely there is a bit more movement this year when it comes to the Rule5? Not with our prospects necessarily, but just in general.

I didn't even think about this, but with no Rule5 draft last year...anyone think it's more likely there is a bit more movement this year when it comes to the Rule5? Not with our prospects necessarily, but just in general.

Really good article. They haven't QUITE gotten the dominance out of their top 2, they've lost Woody and Peralta to injuries. Lauer...I though he'd kinda helped keep us above water the last two months(or at least stopped us from completely going under). 2.98 his last 10 starts, but he had a rough stretch. The top two not being just quite as good and injuries have played the biggest role. Ideally, Houser would be your #5 and Ashby would be available to throw 2-3 inning up to 3 times a week or being used in any number of roles. Also, I had high hopes for Ashby to take that next step and become a little more dominant this year. Not that I'm disappointed with his performance per say...it's just frustrating WHERE he's making his mistakes. A guy with his type of stuff should NOT be at his worst statistically when it's 0-2 or on the 1st pitch. That 97 MPH fastball with movement, the slider. The only thing I wish he could do is take a bit more off that change. 96 to 89 isn't quite the change of speed you'd like... Anyway, I still see the potential for a big Sept run. My biggest concern at this point though is close games late. Devin Williams just FEELS shaky, Bush and that straight FB gives up HRs. Rogers has looked better. I think it's gonna take someone stepping up. If that's Cousins or Box, IDK, but I still like this teams chances.

This tracks with my opinion of Counsell. He's a great manager, however this year in particular though...I haven't been as big of fan of some of his moves. I've seen people suggesting he should and or would get fired if this team fails to make it to the post-season. Not just trolls, I've seen it on here and by actual Baseball people speculating. I say speculating because I can't imagine they have a source that would back up such utter nonsense. Counsell to me has this job for as long as he wants it. I full expect him to be the manager in Milwaukee for another 10-15 years. He's Bobby Cox, he's Tom Kelly, I'd say Sparky Anderson, but he was fired in Cincy, but Sparky in Det. The Brewers are having one of the most frustrating years in the last decade when you look at expected performance vs actual performance. I thought this was another ~100 win team that could compete for a WS. Things happen. Adames has struggled. We've played poorly. As mentioned, I've disagreed with some of CC's moves and what should be a reliable BP(despite the loss of Hader) has been disappointing with someone blowing the lead seemingly every night. And we're 68-60 the last day of August and in a playoff race. That is how David Stearns...who's also made the occasional bad deadline deal, Matt Arnold, Tom Flanagan, Tod Johnson, among others...have given Counsel varying levels of talent and they've always played up to it. And I say always as this year is not yet over. Remember the names Sal Bando, Ron Roenicke, Ken Macha, etc... This also doesn't mean you can't question why he's not starting Keston Hiura vs RH'ed pitchers just to be clear. Just appreciate we have one of the best in baseball and a manager can do but so much.

This tracks with my opinion of Counsell. He's a great manager, however this year in particular though...I haven't been as big of fan of some of his moves. I've seen people suggesting he should and or would get fired if this team fails to make it to the post-season. Not just trolls, I've seen it on here and by actual Baseball people speculating. I say speculating because I can't imagine they have a source that would back up such utter nonsense. Counsell to me has this job for as long as he wants it. I full expect him to be the manager in Milwaukee for another 10-15 years. He's Bobby Cox, he's Tom Kelly, I'd say Sparky Anderson, but he was fired in Cincy, but Sparky in Det. The Brewers are having one of the most frustrating years in the last decade when you look at expected performance vs actual performance. I thought this was another ~100 win team that could compete for a WS. Things happen. Adames has struggled. We've played poorly. As mentioned, I've disagreed with some of CC's moves and what should be a reliable BP(despite the loss of Hader) has been disappointing with someone blowing the lead seemingly every night. And we're 68-60 the last day of August and in a playoff race. That is how David Stearns...who's also made the occasional bad deadline deal, Matt Arnold, Tom Flanagan, Tod Johnson, among others...have given Counsel varying levels of talent and they've always played up to it. And I say always as this year is not yet over. Remember the names Sal Bando, Ron Roenicke, Ken Macha, etc... This also doesn't mean you can't question why he's not starting Keston Hiura vs RH'ed pitchers just to be clear. Just appreciate we have one of the best in baseball and a manager can do but so much.

This was my thought...though I'll be honest, I didn't really consider the 13 pitcher limit, more just the extra roster spot and the DH. I was just curious how close people have Valerio to protecting him, if people thought he could be picked. The arguments against make sense. He's 21, been pushed aggressively, but also limited defensively and hasn't had a big year offensively.

This was my thought...though I'll be honest, I didn't really consider the 13 pitcher limit, more just the extra roster spot and the DH. I was just curious how close people have Valerio to protecting him, if people thought he could be picked. The arguments against make sense. He's 21, been pushed aggressively, but also limited defensively and hasn't had a big year offensively.

Well...if I was running a team that was projected to lose 90+ games anyway(or even a team that's going to lose 80 and they know they won't be competitive) then I'd argue talent and potential is pretty big. And it's not like he'd be going from A ball to the Big leagues. AA to MLB. Not all that rare of a jump. I get we have to be selective, but...yeah, I think there are teams that would take a prospect like him and sit him for most of a year, especially with the 26th man. He'd be the highest rated prospect we'd have left unprotected in a while, wouldn't he? I could definitely see the A's taking a guy like him. A team that's probably going to lose 90-100 games, doesn't have much 2B depth and keep him on the roster for 90 days and then like Wei-chung Wang, he starts dealing with some injuries and they get him through to next year. There are a lot of guys, I was just asking if he'd given Valerio any consideration.

Not even a maybe for Valerio? A guy with a 60 hit tool who gets doesn't strike out a ton and does walk a lot? It's a little tough for a 5'7 player who's primarily limited to 2B, a position we seem to have fairly well stocked at the moment, but nonetheless, someone who can play all IF positions along with CF. After the season ends, anyone on the 60 day DL, they revert back and count against the 40 man, correct? We should be able to get down to ~30 40 man roster spots...though I'm sure Stearns will add a few players pretty quickly. Obviously some of those will go to FAs/trades. I've love to be able to keep Turang, Uribe, Robinson, and then Victor Castaneda, Justin Jarvis, Felix Valerio...probably in that order. I wonder if the 26th man roster spot and full season MiLB will increase the # of rule 5 players changing teams or if it will have little impact. I thought there was an increase last year, no? I haven't really followed it all that closely the past few years.

Not even a maybe for Valerio? A guy with a 60 hit tool who gets doesn't strike out a ton and does walk a lot? It's a little tough for a 5'7 player who's primarily limited to 2B, a position we seem to have fairly well stocked at the moment, but nonetheless, someone who can play all IF positions along with CF. After the season ends, anyone on the 60 day DL, they revert back and count against the 40 man, correct? We should be able to get down to ~30 40 man roster spots...though I'm sure Stearns will add a few players pretty quickly. Obviously some of those will go to FAs/trades. I've love to be able to keep Turang, Uribe, Robinson, and then Victor Castaneda, Justin Jarvis, Felix Valerio...probably in that order. I wonder if the 26th man roster spot and full season MiLB will increase the # of rule 5 players changing teams or if it will have little impact. I thought there was an increase last year, no? I haven't really followed it all that closely the past few years.

Yelich needs to have the type of year next year that...if he was a FA, a team would be willing to pay him 5/110M in order for the Brewers to just unload him. That'd involved more than just getting on base and even hitting for a better average. It'd need to be closer to .280/.370/.470 and 30 HRs. A 3-4 WAR season. And then you're probably picking up 3-4M a year and still paying the deferred money. That feels extremely unlikely, BUT, he is only 30 years old and maybe he finds a way to deal with that back issue and regain a little bit of that back speed? Otherwise it's packaging another very valuable player or a prospect...or 2 in order to rid ourselves of his deal. But a big year next year with Burnes, Woodruff and then moving on from all 3 would be just about the ideal scenario. Just a very bad luck signing. I can't imagine anyone at the time we signed him would be asking year 1 of the team friendly extension, if we could find a way to unload him at this point.

I knew his two kids a bit through sports. Not the same school at Matt, but played on a couple teams with him coming up and became friends. Jerry was certainly invested in Matt's athletics and I think Melanie played Volleyball or something for a while, but she wasn't into sports. I'm like 99% sure they were twins, but I knew them at different times, but Matt was a smart kid. I THINK he became a Doctor. Last I saw him, he was in Med school volunteering for something. Mel got married and I know she's doing pretty well(or again, was, at this point, you go years between hearing/seeing from people). I always thought Jerry was a bit arrogant, but in retrospect...I just think he was a father who was busy, a bit on the stricter side and didn't like people who were friends with his daughter(never that there was anything along those lines). Good people.

I knew his two kids a bit through sports. Not the same school at Matt, but played on a couple teams with him coming up and became friends. Jerry was certainly invested in Matt's athletics and I think Melanie played Volleyball or something for a while, but she wasn't into sports. I'm like 99% sure they were twins, but I knew them at different times, but Matt was a smart kid. I THINK he became a Doctor. Last I saw him, he was in Med school volunteering for something. Mel got married and I know she's doing pretty well(or again, was, at this point, you go years between hearing/seeing from people). I always thought Jerry was a bit arrogant, but in retrospect...I just think he was a father who was busy, a bit on the stricter side and didn't like people who were friends with his daughter(never that there was anything along those lines). Good people.

It's certainly not hard to envision Ashby going from 4.5 ERA to a 3.00 ERA guy by cleaning up some of the 0-2 issues, some of the 1st pitch issues. Where he's really struggling. ESPECIALLY relative to the rest of the league.

I don't agree with that. A 2nd year, that's two "bites of the apple." I don't actually believe that they make that trade, but if they chose to do so, I think the return would be SIGNIFICANTLY higher now than in another year. I think the argument for getting back an impact, middle of the order hitter(ideally 3B) came from filling in the lineup FOR Woodruff and Burnes. If they're trading them...then of course you have to go out and get pitching. I've suggested trade parameters, but all of them include TOR type pitchers who are at LEAST in HiA, mostly in AA. We've seen the Brewers built around offense(Weeks, Hardy, Prince, Hart, Braun..etc...). They were hit or miss and needed to go all in to get to the playoffs. We've seen these last 4 years, teams built on pitching. Save for someone like Jung from the Rangers, pitchers should be the priority in any potential trades involving Woodruff and or Burnes...in MY opinion.

Renfroe has one more year of arby left. I'd guess ~11M next year. Wong is a pretty obvious one to me, but I MIGHT actually pick up that option. It costs 8M as we've got a 2M buyout...and he looks like he may be the top 2B on the FA market. We'll get a better idea by the end of the year, but you might be able to deal him, save that 2M and get back a decent prospect for him(I'm talking about one or two 40-45 FV type prospects). I'll make one bet. If we hear about the Brewers making offers to Burnes or Woodruff, the chances they get traded start going up. We usually don't hear about these offers unless they're not real offers. Like Sabathia, Grinke, Prince...among others. That could lay the floor for saying, "he didn't want to sign here and we could lose him for nothing," for whomever they're talking about(but I'd love to be proven wrong and actually sign one).

All great points. You could, in theory, still be a competitive team if you moved on from Burnes AND Woodruff. This could be the best time to do it or the worst. There is such a HUGE gap between how these prospects could perform...maybe it's better to find these teams that have been mentioned(the Baltimore deals suggested are both GREAT deals returns that are just insane). Right now, you have a 2 year window...and when you've got Burnes and Woodruff, you could win a WS in either of those two years. I still think they could win it this year. IF you trade them though, then maybe keep Turang in AAA until it's late enough in the year that you get another year out of him, maybe you deal Adames if he hits. Build up this farm system so it's a top 2-3 system with 4-5 more power arms who'd be in AA or above next year, plus a corner IFer, a slew of OF prospects, some 2B prospects. I've already thrown out a bunch of names, but two years of a Cy Young for a team starved for winning or one that's so close like Toronto or maybe we raid the Angels for everything they've got while they try and convince Ohtani to stick around(that guy generates so much revenue, you might be able to get them to take back most of Yelich's contract to get Burnes AND still grab a couple prospects(they've got a 2nd round pick from St. Mary's...which would be nice symetry). Maybe Burnes+Yelich+Peralta and his surplus value to get rid of Yelich's big contract for O'Hoppe+Bush+Bachman+Madden+ a couple other lotty tickets. Gives the Angels 2 pitching prospects, an OFer ahead of Trout who can get on base and give them a short term window to try and help Ohtani stick around. 3 high upside arms, a good catching prospect, plus a couple lower level guys and you reset the payroll. It'd be like going through one of those MASSIVE Astros/Orioles like rebuilds...but you'd be skipping the 2-3 years of 100 loss teams and be looking at almost 0 money on the books for 2025 year when these prospects could be hitting their strides. And the fan reaction to this type of move would likely be akin to Disco Demolition reaction but over a whole season! I really wouldn't want to be the one making any of these decisions though...I just don't know how I'd be able to trade Corbin Burnes or Woodruff. And ultimately, I don't think we actually will.

Agreed...and this is why I keep going back to the Rangers. All the money they spent on those middle IFers, Seager and Seimen. They have a 23 year old at 3B who was a top 100 prospect heading into the season. You send them Hunter Renfroe to give them another bat in the OF, one of their few weak spots...and then you ask for the moon back. Get back Jung, Wright, Rucker and then 2 more lower tier prospects. If they don't go for it, they don't, but I'm with you. The Mets, Baty, Prada, Tidwell+2 or 3 more prospects. Pretty sure you're not getting Alvarez, but if you can get Baty and Alvarez+Tidwell, you have to consider that, don't you? And I wouldn't be afraid to sign a couple of these guys a month into the year if they look like they're competent hitters. Jung/Baty/Alvarez 6/60 with 3 options for 14 per. Frelick, something similar, maybe a little less. That's beyond premature, talking about contract extensions for prospects that aren't on your team and who you probably can't get...but it makes the inevitable sting of losing Burnes a little more palpable. And of course, the assumption that we're going to lose Burnes means we're DEFINITELY giving him a 5/140 extension with a 6th year TEAM option for 35M. 6/175. I don't really believe that'll happen, but with all the young, cost controlled players we've got coming up, I do think we could pull that off. It may not be wise, but... I do think Woodruff would be more receptive given his age and raynauds? 5/110, option for 30 and 10 buyout? 5/120 guaranteed?

That makes no sense to me. How about Hiura at DH and Taylor/Davis in CF...for the next couple days.

They'll have ~29M committed to the '24 payroll with most of the rest of the team entering arbitration. I don't think the problem or the issue will being able to keep those players together and field a competitive team. The arbitration numbers will be big, but the Brewers are capable of a ~150M dollar payroll in 2 years. Hell, they're capable of it this year as Attanasio said there literally wasn't a player they couldn't have added financially). No, I'm not nearly as concerned with the debate about pushing the payroll up for a year while TV money increases(Again, NEVER to a point where they're remotely competitive with the big market teams, that's not even comparable, but enough to go 150-160 for a year). The debate will be do you trade Burnes/Woodruff and recyle you're talent like the Jays/Guardians and other successful smaller market teams do, or go the way of the Royals, ride it out, increase their payroll(they spent ~130 in '15 and then ~145 in '16) and watch their FA's walk for nothing? It'll be interesting to follow, but that lineup is likely to be relatively cheap, the rotation will be expensive, but it's one year. I don't think that'll be the issue. 2 years, Frelick, Turang, Mitchell, Weimer, they'll all be cheap. In two years, Chourio could even be up(not that I'm counting on it). Black could be up, Urias, Brooseau won't break the bank. But if we got that route, our "bits at the apple," will be much smaller the next couple years even with the likes of Misiokowski, Ashby, Gasser, Pertalta still in the rotation(and who knows who else). But 2025 would be a year with a couple or 3 QO's that get turned down and aces and SS's with power who I'm thinking could be a candidate if he bounces back next year and hits for better average. But all told, it'd be netting us 3 picks after the 1st round I believe. So they'll have to see where they think they are heading into 2024. Do they think they're one of the best teams in baseball? Or do they think they'd be better off picking up 3-6 top 100 prospects by trading both of them(and Adames at tht point because...wouldn't make much sense to keep him). This is going to be one of the most interesting storylines the next two years...and I suspect David Stearns place in the organization...should he BE a part of the organization will dictate which route they take.

Well...they bother the hell outta me, but since everyone else is doing it, we might as well keep playing the guy crushing the ball when he DOES make contact(which...I get is basically what you're saying). I think there is a lot of validity to what Nate is saying. He SHOULDN'T be doing what he's doing. But...the fact is, the guy is mashing. Keep him out there. MAYBE you get him back to where he was as a prospect coming up. Maybe you just get a good, fluke year out of Hiura. Maybe he stops hitting next week and goes into a slump. None of that is a reason to NOT ride the hot hand RIGHT NOW.

Well...then with respect, saying he's made no adjustments is just objectively false. Irrespective of the results...which have been outstanding, the statement that he's made NO adjustments is kinda ridiculous. He's closed his stance, he's overhauled his swing. That's an adjustment. You're really clinging to the fact that he's struggling with Fastballs up...and he's CLEARLY attempting to lay off of them, but you know what makes it REALLY hard? When you're the best hitter on the team and yet you're getting sporadic playing time. For all the "it's luck, he won't keep it up," you may be right. OR maybe his exceptional bat speed and hand eye coordination will improve with more playing time. I don't particularly care right now as I want to see THIS team get into the playoffs and THIS team win a division and have a shot at a WS. Hiura is very obviously helping us do that MORE than Either way, numbers on a chart are a nice source of predictive analytics...but when a guy is on the field consistently producing NOW for a team desperately in need of a bat NOW...I really don't care. This feels like the Packers board with Love except for exact opposite reasons. You see the guy actually doing the thing on the field and it's somehow diminished. Now, in fairness...bringing up a post from 12 days ago after a big day, not a fan of that as that'll get REAL petty in a sport like baseball, but you doubled down on the "he hasn't made an adjustments." He very clearly has.

Well, I think this is so overly speculative, it's tough to get too definitive. I know how highly regarded Abreu is in Chicago and how much HE likes playing for Chicago. He's also helped them recruit quite a few Cuban players to that team. But the fact is...they've got a 36 year old 1B/DH and about 4 young players who shouldn't be playing elsewhere. So I came up with Abreu. Not just because I think it's up in the air if the White Sox bring him back(there's a lot of speculation both ways, but they aren't the most sentimental organization)...but because in looking at the FA's, there are very few who I see that both A-Meet the Brewers budget restraints even when pushed...as I think they will be next year and B-Are even worth bringing in. Mitch Haniger, Joc Peterson I guess? Brantley could be an option on a cheaper deal...he hits lefties enough. Very little power, but he can put the ball in place. But I really don't think 10M for 36 year old who should be platooning is worth it. So Haniger as a bridge to Weimer/Mitchell/Ruiz, none of whom I'm convinced as as ready to contribute. Burnes-If he'll sign a 5/140 deal with a team option for a 6th year, I'd make that offer. You've got a whole farm system with a ton of young talent. This would be the best chance we'd have to have an ace pitcher who's just on the front end of his prime. I am keenly aware of the Brewers financial limitations, but some players are worth working around. Arguably the 2nd best pitcher in the game...he's one of them. And hell, if things don't work out or you need to get out of it, you'd certainly be able to trade that deal in 2 years short of a serious injury(and even then, it'd be shoulder as we know TJ is a relatively straightforward recovery at this point). As for the Rangers...the owner seemed pretty pointed in his remarks. They spent big to make the playoffs, Daniels got fired because they haven't. Wouldn't be smart to trade for Woodruff IMO, but throw it out there. If they're willing to trade Jung+White and Roby for Woodruff...even if we have to throw in something like maybe Lauer or Renfroe(again, they're short on OFers and obviously Renfroe would be the preference)...maybe you get lucky. But as I said, I think it's more likely that the Brewers run it back, they make a fairly substantial trade, they push the payroll into the ~150 range for next year. Dosn't make them players for a big time FA, but we could take back a nice player. If only there were more talented players on the Rockies. Getting Arenado for 7/141 and not a single top 100 prospect was just a robbery. Maybe CJ Cron? He could fill a big hole. 1B/DH. Splits are pretty good. He just seems to hit everywhere he goes. And he's signed for one more year and the Rockies aren't close...so why not deal him? There are just so few FA's who fit what we need and the ones who do are mostly coming off years that would make signing them...a poor idea. Josh Bell probably wants 5/85 at least, likely more. Drury is struggling, and I'm not all that eager for a 3B who's up and down as a FA and who's also likely to get more than he's worth coming off what has been a very good year. So you're probably right. A player here or there, nothing that really moves the needle unless one or more of the rookies do and...you just hope maybe Ashby can figure out how to put guys away on 0-2, Freddy can stay healthy, Lauer has another good year. As long as you have 2 viable aces, 2-3 viable #2-3 pitchers and then Adrian Houser, we'll have a shot. I just don't think they're punting on the Burnes/Woodruff era at this point.

Maybe not...which is why I allowed to Jimenez in a trade(and immediately make him a DH). BUT, despite Abreu being the...Godfather to all the Cubans the CWH have signed, and his production, the fact is, that's a team that has terrible, terrible defense and two pieces who are clearly part of their future who should not see any position on the field other than the dirt on the right side of an IF or the bench. Eloy Jimenez is brutal, Vaughn is already their DH. Sheets...they could do away with him, but he's bad. And Abreu is a FA and he's getting older. If they're going to get better, they'll need pitching. So I'd focus in on them for a bat. They re-sign Abreu, fine, I'd go Lauer+1 of Weimer/Ruiz/Mitchell for Jimenez+Reynaldo López. I think the CHW with the way their roster is built, it makes the most sense to part with Abreu and the only reason not to would be loyalty. But they'll either keep losing, or reconstruct their roster in a smarter way at some point. This means moving on from someone who can't play defense, but who can hit. If it's Woody and Lauer, we'll likely get less than just Burnes. But I'd demand Jung, White and Roby as 3 of them. Then a couple lower level guys like Teodo and Church. A cornerstone at 3rd, a good pitching prospect and then 3 "Brewer guys" with great stuff, elite spin rates and command issues. I feel like I can say this with a certain degree of certainty...that's not enough to get Rogers. The Marlins have one of the best young pitchers, a loaded farm system, they've got more pitchers on their way. Why are they trading 5 years of pitcher who was worth 4-5 WAR last year in just 133 IP for 1 year of Renfroe and Urias? I see zero upside for the Marlins here. This is another one, I just...don't see why Seattle does this. You're selling as low on Lewis as you can. ROY, injured in '21, struggles in '22 and you give him away for Rowdy...a nice bat, but not better than Lance. And Taylor does nothing for them. So it's basically Rowdy for a pitching prospect and then Taylor, who you know is pretty much maxed out, vs Lewis, who still has a ton of upside. Someone who COULD break out(Ala Carlos Gomez). Suarez, Crawford, Frazier(maybe), Lance. They have a whole lot of money to spend and a lot of pieces in place. Here's the set back for me in this little exercise. This is a half measure to me. To win a WS without a major overhaul, you need 2 aces. I don't think you can expect several young OFers to click at once, plus Turang. So I'd really do either one of Burnes/Woody or both. Run it back with both of them, or deal both with 2 years remaining, add 7-8 players who are projected to be up by '24 or sooner(maybe a A ball player or two) and go that route. Those are two of those most valuable contracts in baseball. But that lineup, as improved as it may be, won't be elite. That pitching staff, unless Rogers bounces back(good bet, but that's why I don't see Miami trading him)...it's basically an ace, a couple 3s, a wild card in Ashby(he could develop into an ace or he could continue to struggle with the finer points) and then Small...who should be solid. So I'm of the all or nothing mindset at this point.