UpandIn

I could really be convinced to go any number of ways. I think the most realistic is we run it back, hope we get more from our own bats and maybe push the payroll a bit with a Jose Abreu type signing. I see he's projected to get ~10-12 over 2-3 years. That seems light. I'd go 2/30 mutual option for 5M if we decline it. Run it back next year with a lineup or PROJECTED lineup by June of So, option A-The option I believe Attanasio is more likely to be in favor of, acquire a steady, middle of the order bat. Abreu is the most reasonable or would seem to be the most reasonable in terms of cost and also his production has been remarkably steady. Finally, the White Sox aren't exactly a run prevention team, but they can't really keep running out lineup's with 4-5 1B/DH types. Not spending just to spend or pushing the payroll just to show the fans you're doing something, so if the Sox want to keep Abreu and keep Jimenez, Sheets, Vaughn, etc....if they decide Abreu is too important to their culture, we could offer a package for Jimenez who is an outstanding bat and would become our DH. Lauer+a solid prospect may be a good match for both sides there. The quality of the prospect would be contingent upon the CHW throwing in any money. Yelich-LF/DH Adames-SS Frelick-CF Abreu-Jimenez/DH/1B Tellez/Hiura-1B Renfroe-RF Urias/Brosseau/Jace-3B Cartarini/Serverino-C Turang-2B Lefties in italics. It's a whole lot to ask Frelick to hit #3, but I think he'll hit near the top of the order and unless Yelich regains his power stroke, atop the order may be the best spot for him. And you could swap Urias and Turang. I just like that old idea of that sorta 2nd leadoff man hitting 9th. Someone with speed, who walks a lot coming up before the top of the order, but it could create a situation where 3 of 4 hitters are lefties. Not ideal, but just a rough idea. Option 2- Put a 5 year 140M dollar extension in front of Burnes. 15/20/28/32/34 15M deferred, team option for 35. Maybe he bites. Woodruff maybe 5/110 with a similar structure and a team option. I don't really expect either to bit, but if one does, then you sign them, play it out and you have a bit more wiggle room to possibly trade pitching for a big bat. You can now use Lauer, Gasser, Houser(though his value is low until he comes back and I'd still be worried he needs the TJ surgery). Point is, if you know that you've got one of those two, plus Ashby, Peralta for the next 5 years, you can be a LITTLE more aggressive in dealing pitching prospects. At this point, you're effectively in a post-Rodgers era. Not a terrible team, but one that wouldn't have World Series ambitions for a year or two(at least). In the more likely scenario in which they turn them down, I'd look at teams like Texas, Philly, Boston, LAD...and maybe Detroit/Baltimore. Burnes+Hunter Renfroe to Texas for Josh Jung, Kumar Rocker, Owen White, Tekoah Roby Yeah, you get 2 years of a Cy Young, you're gonna get taxed. And for a team that's just spend a defend sized European's GDP on it's IF, fired it's GM because the owner is growing impatient, this is the type of team I could see aggressively pursuing Burnes. And they get Renfroe. Or hell, throw in Ruiz. But a 60H 3B and then three pitchers with TOR upside. Woodruff+Devin Williams to LAD for Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Gavin Stone, Dalton Rushing I might go for Cartaya, but I suspect the Dodger would keep him off the table. MAYBE Williams does get it done, but I doubt it. I also will admit, despite constantly putting up dominant numbers, Williams decreasing velocity has be a bit concerned. When teams can just sit on the change....and if we're trading our two most valuable players, we might as well sell high on Williams. Walker Buehler down for the rest of this year, won't be the same until 2024. Kimbrel is up and down...not that it matters, the Dodgers collect stud relievers like Yasiel Puig collects speeding tickets. I'm sure some will say those teams won't give up those prospects for 2 years of Burnes or Woodruff, I'm sure I'm asking for a lot, but two legitimate aces to two teams who are spending a whole lot to to win now. I'd also consider a trade involving a swap of Woodruff+Adames+Yelich to Detroit for Javier Baez, 40M, Jung and Wilmer Flores younger brother...Wilmer Flores. If we're going to go through this..."reset," we might as well see if we can Baez back on track. Maybe he opts out after next year. Maybe he has a bounce back year and you can get another team to take on that contract. At Josh's younger brother and another high upside pitcher+ a couple lottery tickets and Detroit gets an ace, a replacement SS and they get their own hope at rebuilding a MVP caliber player. Doesn't seem likely, doesn't help that Willy's not really having a great year at the plate but he's still an upgrade on Baez. Really just a convoluted way of trying to get out from under the 7 years left on the Yelich deal OR at least cut off a few years, but...I don't see that as likely. So we'll stick with Burnes, Woodruff, Devin Williams, Hunter Renfroe for; Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Gavin Stone, Dalton Rushing, Josh Jung, Kumar Rocker, Owen White, Tekoah Roby Lineup would be 1B-Miguel Vargas(He's not a very good defensive 3B due to a poor arm, but he's got the size, glove and athletic ability to be an outstanding 1st basemen). 2B-Luis Urias--->Tyler Black SS-Brice Turang 3B-Josh Jung LF-Garrett Mitchell CF-Sal Frelick RF-Joey Weimer C-Cartarini/Severino DH-Yelich SP Peralta Ashby Bobby Miller Lauer Gavin Stone Houser (Minors- Owen White, Kumar Rucker, Tekoah Roby, plus our own Gasser, Small, Miskiorowski, Brewers Twitter-On fire Mark Attanasio--MLB Owners protection program 2023 Attendance 1.5M Vargas, Frelick, Jung, all sign 6 years right out of the gates for 50-60M each coming with 3 option years in the 15-20M range. See how Miller and Stone progress, but Ashby type deals for them could be in order as well. Brewers slash the payroll to ~80M this year saving the 50-60-70(Whatever they make) to push the payroll up in a few years when they're competitive to the 160-170 range with the new regional TV deal(that still pays them ~400M less than the big boys) and the 60-70M in National TV money every team is getting. So to use David Stearns analogy, we throw the apple away for the next couple years and get a whole bushel of them for the future. With all that said, they're ALMOST certainly just going to try and run it back with mostly this same lineup because...when pitching...always gives you a chance and we're really not that far away. We damn near made a world series with 'openers.' The Burnes/Woodruff scenario is more something I'd do if I was playing a video game and could sim through seasons to get back to the good part. I don't think you actually break up a pitching staff like the one we've got or that just finding highly regarded power arms is a guarantee of anything. But for the "prospect" fan in me, these trades offer a whole lot of future potential and are a lot of fun in theory, probably not so much in application.

I agree. I think the worst thing they could do with Turang is start him out not knowing if or where he's going to be playing. Better glove, I think he's got more offensive upside and he's 22 and the future. If they were both 22 and both in AAA...I guess it'd be a coin flip, but he's not. Adames to 3rd, Turang to SS and Urias to 2B would probably makes sense(Turang has a strong arm, so HIM playing 3B would also make sense) but you'd think the Brewers would have Turang playing some 3rd if that was the plan. That he's been playing some 2nd suggests to me they view him as an up the middle defender.

I agree. I think the worst thing they could do with Turang is start him out not knowing if or where he's going to be playing. Better glove, I think he's got more offensive upside and he's 22 and the future. If they were both 22 and both in AAA...I guess it'd be a coin flip, but he's not. Adames to 3rd, Turang to SS and Urias to 2B would probably makes sense(Turang has a strong arm, so HIM playing 3B would also make sense) but you'd think the Brewers would have Turang playing some 3rd if that was the plan. That he's been playing some 2nd suggests to me they view him as an up the middle defender.

I agree, I think it was the back. After that shot to right though, I'm also hoping that back has some life left in it!

I agree, I think it was the back. After that shot to right though, I'm also hoping that back has some life left in it!

I'm inherently skeptical of the un-named sources in the industry when it's a Jeff Passan... That seems like too obvious of a thing to first start coming out 3 years after an injury that ended his second straight MVP season in a failed attempt to try and explain why he just feel off a cliff. I also have friends who work in or around the industry. One who works for Bally telling me Khris Middleton was coming back Gm 5 of the Celtics series, then telling me everyone on the team was questioning his toughness. I'm pretty sure that person just wasn't privy to that information at all because their job in no way is related to the health of the players. Now...that's not to say Tigeruppercut is wrong or that he doesn't know reputable people in the front offices of Major League Baseball(though it'd really have to be the Brewers or how would they know how hard he is or isn't working right now?)...I'll just say I take these types of insults with a grain of salt. You're really kinda insulting who he is as a man and as a person. So I need more than an anonymous person repeating what other anonymous people say before I'll put any credibility into that. With Sheets, we HEARD people questioning his lack of commitment to his conditioning. We saw a very different personality. I don't see that from Yelich. Again, doesn't mean it's not that...I just don't see it).

I'm inherently skeptical of the un-named sources in the industry when it's a Jeff Passan... That seems like too obvious of a thing to first start coming out 3 years after an injury that ended his second straight MVP season in a failed attempt to try and explain why he just feel off a cliff. I also have friends who work in or around the industry. One who works for Bally telling me Khris Middleton was coming back Gm 5 of the Celtics series, then telling me everyone on the team was questioning his toughness. I'm pretty sure that person just wasn't privy to that information at all because their job in no way is related to the health of the players. Now...that's not to say Tigeruppercut is wrong or that he doesn't know reputable people in the front offices of Major League Baseball(though it'd really have to be the Brewers or how would they know how hard he is or isn't working right now?)...I'll just say I take these types of insults with a grain of salt. You're really kinda insulting who he is as a man and as a person. So I need more than an anonymous person repeating what other anonymous people say before I'll put any credibility into that. With Sheets, we HEARD people questioning his lack of commitment to his conditioning. We saw a very different personality. I don't see that from Yelich. Again, doesn't mean it's not that...I just don't see it).

This is why I'm pretty confident that his injury has just been his back injury getting progressively worse. It was an issue when he was 25 years old. In 2020, it appeared he was still mostly the same player, just hitting into incredibly poor luck in a small sample size, but still hitting for power. 2021, more back issues, missing time. The power is gone and now....we are where we are.

Imagine THIS Christian Yelich is a FA. What's he going to get? MAYBE 2/20 with a 3rd year option. So 25M guaranteed. There's no WAY a team is taking back ~180M in contract obligations for a year and a half of Hader...who himself will cost ~17M next year. I really don't even want to think about what it'd cost to unload Yelich contract at this point. I'm pretty sure it'd be part of a Burnes/Woodruff trade and you'd still have to eat a pretty significant chunk and take a whole lot less back in terms of prospects. I think the best way to proceed is just...hope Yelich can figure something out. Maybe try something different with his back and then hope he can get going again in some way or just be happy with what you've got. The horse is out of the barn. Unless he suddenly figures it out, it's a sunken cost we've just got to deal with. It sucks, but the only way forward is to try and keep churning out young, talented, valuable controllable players. We can compete while paying Yelich 26M a year(22 and then deferred money)...it's just gonna be difficult.

But he didn't get paid 80M. He got paid ~65M. And it's 11.6 WAR per Bref 8.4 per Fangraphs We got pretty lucky he opted in before opting out in 2020 or we'd be on the hook for another year(likely why the Brewers were willing to wait to DFA him).

It sounds like he did try to acquire a few bats. Drury, Joc Peterson, Josh Bell and...even Joey Gallo(who I was not a particular fan of, but nonetheless). I wonder if the Reds weren't trying to tax the Brewers a bit to acquire a bat that fit so well as Drury did. It's hard to really form an opinion without knowing exactly what they wanted...but I will say I'm not a fan of trading away LA Bonus Babies before you really get a feel for what they can do. The chances you trade away a Tatis Jr(an example that's suddenly been made to look much worse, but I think the point remains) is very low, but...they still got a pretty highly regarded SS/2B who was in his first year of full season ball. Do you risk giving up a guy like Hedbert Perez with his upside? Even with the very long odds that he ever becomes a productive player? Would that even have been enough? I don't know. Stears seems more comfortable trading away players with higher floors and lower ceilings(Alex Binelas types for example). https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-the-2-former-all-star-hitters-that-the-brewers-looked-to-acquire-at-mlb-trade-deadline-revealed/ As for David Peralta and Tyler Naquin, sure. They could have provided...something. Both are really bad vs lefties, but have been able to hit righties a little. Pretty similar to Keston Hiura but lower strikeout rates.

Yes. The Dodgers make a ton of money with ~400M in TV money each year. The Yankees make a ton of money with at least that, AND a whole helluva lot more in tickets revenue. I don't recall when it's been studied or reported that the Brewers are making a "ton" of money. Even still, that's not the reason they failed to get Drury, Bell...and I forget who the 3rd player they'd gone after but were unable to acquire at the deadline. Money wasn't the reason. It was almost certainly not wanting to give up the prospects that are the lifeblood of this team in order to get an impact player in return. Bell was part of the Soto deal, so as I said in another thread...I can't imagine the Nats holding a firm line there during negotiations and saying, 'well, if you don't want to include Bell, we can't do Hassell.' So that's just messy in trying to separate what it would have cost. Joey Gallo...who's been discussed here, cost the Dodgers a 50 FV type arm. I wanted a bat badly as well. I also did NOT want to see them give up Turang, the 3 OFers who are in AAA, Chourio or one of our top 2 pitching prospects(which they ended up doing anyway, though they got another back). So I've gotta ask, what was the trade they should have made? You don't just force a trade just to make at trade, right? Last year, Escobar was available, the Brewers went out and got him. Who was that player this year?

Huh...I could have sworn I've seen people calling out David Stearns the last month on this site(at least it's felt like a month since the deadline). Yelich CERTAINLY gets called out. Who exactly is not "allowing" you to do this? They also paid Lo Cain 65M over 4 years and a week and got back 12 WAR. Not REALLY a "blunder," in my opinion. Edit-I'd also LOVE to go back to my much younger self, watching the Brewers trade away star player with seemingly no plan in place, losing 90-100 games a year...with a 20 year high being a 10 game winning streak that would come to an end vs the Reds that would bring the Brewers to the staggering heights of...58-75...I'd love to be able to tell him, "don't worry about it, in the future when the Brewers are slumping, they'll call 61-53 a "dumpster fire."

I'd like to see Ecerg, Brown, Luna, Chirino, Monasterio, Walters and of course Harris back. But particularly Ecerg, Brown, Walters and Harris.

I don't think you're overly optimistic on the prospects...other than Warren. I just think he'll take at least another year, but the bigger issue, I just don't think you'll see Mitchell/Weimer on the bench. Leave them in the minors in Rondon and Contreras...that's pretty bold! I've seen Contreras wants 5/100...and that'd be a pretty reasonable contract to be honest. Problem is, you look at the best teams and so many of them need catching help BADLY. But I'd be all for that. I suspect Contreras will end up getting closer to 25M a year, so 5/125 Rondon, eh...it's bold! I'll give ya that. I think, baring a late season shoulder fatigue, he's on pace for a maybe 5/140 type deal. I'd really rather just give that to Woodruff(or Burnes, but I don't think he takes that). Rodon is absolutely filthy...and I like how his fastball velo actually ticks UP during the games. It'd be interesting. The problem I have is you're taking Lauer out of that rotation...and Houser. And those are pretty good pitchers. My FA predictions are nothing special. I just said in another thread, maybe a Wily Peralta reunion now that he's seemed to figure it out a bit. A "big" signing would be a Jose Abreu. The CHW have Andrew Vaughn in house as a replacement, Jimenez is not a very good OFer, so you could just simply move Vaughn to 1st, Elroy to DH and move on. Meanwhile, we tried to sign Abreu when he came to the States. Josh Bell I think will get a 4/65 type deal, maybe 5/90. Somewhere in that range. Abreu on the other hand is 36 and maybe 2/30 gets it done? If he wants to stay close to Chicago, it'd make sense. That's about as wild as I'd go in free agency though. I think Abreu still has a couple productive years left. We'll likely let Wong leave, Cain's off the books, as is McCutchen, but that'll mostly go to arbitration raises. I can see the payroll getting pushed as high as 150...maybe. But not on long term deals. Rowdy/Abreu/Hiura handling 1B/DH most days, Turang at 2B, Frelick in CF and then Yelich/Renfroe in the corner OF spots with Taylor as the 4th OFer and Mitchell/Weimere/Ruiz waiting to prove themselves would be a nice upgrade. Jurickson Profar, Mitch Haniger, Drury, these are the types of guys I could also see them targeting, but on short deals. And outside of Haniger, I suspect the other two will price themselves out of Milwaukee. I think the most likely scenario would see the Brewers take a package of Ruiz/Small+ for a younger impact player. A corner IFer(3B preferably) or just a good bat. I'm more curious to see if David Stearns is the POBO after this season. How I'd LOVE to see a press release that says the Brewers have signed DS to an extension through 2026! I'm still pretty confident in what Matt Arnold provides as he'd almost certainly be elevated to that role, but I don't love the idea of the people Stearns would take with him. There'd be a significant brain drain and THAT is troubling. But again, the infrastructure he's left in place will make me appreciate of his time in Milwaukee in either event.

Mostly agree with how the lineup is going to look like. I think we're going to see another player added via trade/free agency(maybe someone like Mitch Haniger for a year at ~8-10M coming off an injury plagued season)...but I do think you're jumping the gun in a few places here with regard to prospects. 1B-I don't think Warren is really all that close. He's been hitting the ball well recently, but he's in HiA and slashing .222/.299/.384 Really like the upside, but I don't see him in the plans for 2023. 2B I could see Hiura getting more time there than this year and Wong's option declined. Jace maybe starting the season there(or at 3rd with Urias at 2nd) and then a couple months in Turang taking over. C-I don't know if Omar comes back. Maybe if he's back cheap, but catching is in pretty high demand right now. I think we're going to go with Caratini and Severino as their catchers next year. Good defense, a switch hitter and a lefty, both cheap and cost controlled. But hey, maybe we do get Omar back for a year at 5M. We could jump at that. OF-I think Frelick's the CFer as soon as he's called up and Taylor moves over to LF. And beyond that I think Mitchell and Weimer will be in AAA next year until they force the issue or we have injuries. They need and....will likely get 25 PAs a week. Same with Ruiz. And in that scenario you'd imagine Weimer would be RF, Mitchell and Ruiz rotating between CF(maybe Ruiz plays some 2nd). The one NEAR certainty I can predict...Brewers fans will be mad when we don't sign Trea Turner or Aaron Judge. They MAY be understanding when we pass on giving deGrom a 4/160M dollar deal, but that's 50/50.

Well...the Brewers announcers have been talking about it for some time. I'm guessing it's been communicated to him.

I went into this deadline hoping to turn a couple of decent prospects into Bell or maybe Bentidendi...and maybe a reliever. Maybe even a Small or Valerio for the right stick(definitely NOT a rental). I anticipated it being someone we hadn't even considered(like Adames). I came out confused how it worked out and just really annoyed that we let a potential high leverage dominant arm like Lamet go with nothing. The bad, aforementioned Lamet and trading Antoine Kelly. I just didn't like it. The good, 3 relievers who can and have closed who can get outs in October(and hopefully November when you need power arms) and what would appear to be a VERY good left handed pitcher in Gasser. The Great, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Joey Weimer, and obviously Chourio are all still part of the system...we look like we may be deeper in the pen(though not as dominant) and I think we actually improved our chances to win in the future without having much of a negative impact on the immediate future. Give me Rosenthal coming in throwing 100MPH, Lamet as a long man and then Bush and Rogers matching up and this deadline would be a very solid B+ to me. That said, it seemed disjointed and either not well planned out or they weren't able to complete some of the trades they had worked out that, as Attanasio said, "fell through." One last point, for those who are claiming Stearns has a foot out the door, is there any better reason for him to empty out 4 of our top prospects to acquire a difference making bat if that's the case? If he's in such a hurry to partner with Cohen, winning the NL is the best way to make that happen Based on what seemed to be available, I'm definitely happy the Brewers didn't overpay for a bat. I think at some point that may be a good idea, but teams also have to make that bat available via trade.

I can't square this. If it's nonsense that he's not being used correctly, why is he in there starting vs lefties and then lifted when a RHed pitcher comes in? That kinda seems like they're completely ignoring his current trends and...using him incorrectly.

We appear to be on the way to non-tendering a whole lot of valuable players next year. Renfroe, I've seen Bush is already out the door in another thread! Probably why we traded Hader... Really though, I can't imagine we're going to DFA...really any of the players who are performing well. Tellez may be the closest I suppose we might...though I really doubt it. Houser if the elbow issues turned out to be worse, but as of now, maybe a Suter, Gustave, Gott, but the guys who'll be making a lot in arbitration are players who are very important and that you just don't DFA. The ones in the middle are all pretty clearly worth it. Renfroe would be traded before you'd dump a 30HR, .800 OPS RFer with his type of arm(even with some poor defensive decisions recently, mainly with regard to his inability to hit the cutoff man and his belief he can throw everyone out with that massive right arm). Hopefully in 2024 we can afford to be more pick as it pertains to who we're throwing into the OF/DH, but that supposes at least 2-3 of Frelick, Hiura, Weimer, Mitchell, Ruiz develop or Taylor shows a little more. Pretty big assumptions.

He didn't come close in voting, but that '04 season was...pretty incredible and I think in 2022 he'd have finished 2nd or 3rd. But...of course it appears as though Burnes will pass him up. Woodruff very well may as well without the benefit of the additional couple years. The criticism Sheets got at the time was that he didn't put the work in that a guy like Jimmy Nelson or Burnes or Woody did. That he just got by on pure talent more than grinding and attention to detail. Helluva pitcher though.

I don't think that's accurate...the distinction you're making between "Stearns guys," and "Melvin guys." I think Stearns has built this team around guys with power arms and questionable command who were developing. It was Stearns who drafted Kelly, so...by definition he's a Stearns guy. We just drafted another Juco guy with a power arm and command issues and then paid him about a million over slot(more than the 1st round prospect). Ashby was certainly a guy who had(and continues) to have command issues. Burnes had command issues coming out and in the lower levels. And Stearns said Glasser is "quietly one of the better," not the best. That's a...enormous difference. One of the better is...not meaningless, but doesn't really say much to me. Yeah, he's ONE of the better ones. Well, of course you've got to say that. They were also talking up Lamet the day before they DFA'd him...so obviously they're going to say they like the prospects they got. I can do two things, trust Stearns and still not change my opinion soley because we moved players out in a trade. A 6'6 lefty who came back hitting certainly with command issues, but also dominating A+ hitters getting both Ks and weak contact and throwing 99 with a plus slider after effectively missing two years vs a 6'1 lefty with less stuff and better control. I can trust Stearns track record...but the statement was made, 'if these players were in our system all year, performing like this, we'd be calling them untouchable.' Well...we obviously wouldn't as we aren't in Kelly's case.

1-Drew Rassmussen seems like he's doing alright. And no, I don't "blindly mis-trust Stearns," but I also haven't changed my opinion exclusively because we've traded one and acquired the other. 2-Kelly was on the brink of AA...and now he's 3 years from MAYBE might possibly being a reliever? I wonder how Ashby made his way to the majors based on that time frame.

So drafted in 2019...pitches well in an obviously small sample size. 2020-Covid, lost season, apparently impressed at the Alternate Training Site. 2021-Thoracic outlet surgery...a much more common surgery now with a much higher recovery rate. Not really "shoulder," surgery...in the traditional sense with pitchers. Nothing like Jimmy Nelson or a rotator cuff. Much higher recovery rate...and...he recovered from it. Came back throwing in the upper 90s again this year, slider was elite. So hard to see THAT particular injury being a real factor after he's fully recovered from it. But...ok, Glasser is more advanced. That's a pretty small margin as Kelly was just far more dominant at the same level after coming back from, again, the Covid year and the TOS. Surely you'd agree that Kelly has far more upside, no? As for when has Stearns done X, as I said, if you just want to say, you blindly trust Stearns...fine. If it's just trusting Stearns, ok. I don't believe Brewers fans 3 days ago would have argued for Glasser over Kelly as they are now. Kelly has performed similarly to Ashby, similar stuff(upper 90s, plus slider, command needs to improve). Higher floor, lower ceiling pitcher at the same level performing worse?

Yup, the only two options were to talk about how he fits in your team, how talented he is and "he's garbage. We plan to cut him tomorrow." But actually...yeah, I DID expect them to say they were going to DFA him rather than praise him if this was all part of the plan.