UpandIn

Buehler has very little trade value though. I think it's 4.4M excess value. It'd be like Burners if he was going to miss all years next year, but you're still going to pay him ~20+ million over those two years. As for Miller and Stone...I don't think they're going to have to wait very long. Both are big league right right now....and the Dodgers have Pepiot who's already thrown very well at the big league level.

Gerrit Cole's deal is one deal and an aberration. It'd be like using Aaron Nola's 4/45M extension with a team option coming off a ~10 WAR season at the same point Burnes is at. And sure, in two years I guess 6/180 would make sense. But that's 400+ innings and 2 years away. The fact that he's still got service time left means he's obviously not getting the same value as pitchers who are free to sign with any team. So asking how much I think he WILL get in 2 years...I have almost no idea. I expect deGrom, Verlander to get 3 year deals, possibly with vesting options. I would expect Rodon to get a 5 or 6 year deal in the 140M range, but again, he's a free agent. The deal deGrom signed when he was 2 years away from Free Agency should be the starting point for Burnes. ~5/137.5. But deGrom was far more dominant and just better in every way than Burnes at the time. So I think 5/130 would be a very fair deal to buy out his two arbitration years(~30M). That'd make it 3 years ~100M. But teams are going away from the long deals for pitchers. 6 years is on the long end for most pitchers. Burnes can look for a 10 year deal...I sincerely doubt any MLB team is going to give it to him. That'd be the longest deal a pitcher has signed in modern free agency.

Gerrit Cole's deal is one deal and an aberration. It'd be like using Aaron Nola's 4/45M extension with a team option coming off a ~10 WAR season at the same point Burnes is at. And sure, in two years I guess 6/180 would make sense. But that's 400+ innings and 2 years away. The fact that he's still got service time left means he's obviously not getting the same value as pitchers who are free to sign with any team. So asking how much I think he WILL get in 2 years...I have almost no idea. I expect deGrom, Verlander to get 3 year deals, possibly with vesting options. I would expect Rodon to get a 5 or 6 year deal in the 140M range, but again, he's a free agent. The deal deGrom signed when he was 2 years away from Free Agency should be the starting point for Burnes. ~5/137.5. But deGrom was far more dominant and just better in every way than Burnes at the time. So I think 5/130 would be a very fair deal to buy out his two arbitration years(~30M). That'd make it 3 years ~100M. But teams are going away from the long deals for pitchers. 6 years is on the long end for most pitchers. Burnes can look for a 10 year deal...I sincerely doubt any MLB team is going to give it to him. That'd be the longest deal a pitcher has signed in modern free agency.

Yeah, but not really. He left to get paid and little else. He joined up with Hakeem and Barkley, two players who were considered better at the time(he did not disabuse people of that notion). But he was always going to live in MJs shadow. When you think of Pipp, you think of Jordan. Where is Middleton going where he's gonna get out from Giannis shadow and establish himself without being tied to Giannis? We know he's not a #1. He's going to make less in every other team in the league unless we do some sign and trade. I would guess Middleton knows how much the Bucks need him and he wants 4 years+PO@ close to 40 AAV and the Bucks probably don't want to go longer than 3+TO. I assume they'll get it done though. Otherwise...if they have to, I'm alright with trading Middleton next year. Find a team that really needs a wing(Cleveland is the painfully obvious team, but not sure we want to load them up anymore). But I guess if he wants out and he wants to get paid, that'd be the only realistic avenue for him to do so. Not sure what the Bucks would get back beyond a 1st and then a few players who's salaries would come within ~8M of Middleton's salary. You'd likely get like a Buddy Hield or someone who a team doesn't want and in return, they get a veteran on a young team in the most likely scenario. I doubt that'll happen though.

Does that short hop the catcher? I can't tell if the catcher just has to go down to catch it or if it bounces. It's not a huge deal either way, just trying to get a read on his arm. If he bounces it up there...it's a good, accurate throw, but not great arm strength(not Khris Davis arm strength either). If he gets it there on the fly, it's a nice throw...albeit from shallow Center. Incredible hands at the play. Just a smooth, easy swing, but the way he barrels it up, this kid is going to be a lot of fun to follow.

I don't put a whole lot of stock into that BTV...BUT if you were a team like Baltimore who came off a 3 year run where they lost 108, 115 and 110 games in 3 full seasons(excluding the Covid shortened season) and then last year won 83 games in the toughest division in baseball...would YOU be excited to not only give up a pitcher who has Randy Johnson(sick of using deGrom as a comp) like stuff but as a RHed pitcher, PLUS the #2 overall prospect in baseball, PLUS this other pitcher who could be a future ace, but if he's not in DL Hall, will almost certainly be an elite SU/Closer? 18 years vs 2 years. If we're going to look at a 3-4 player package, we'd be better off maybe targeting one MLB ready prospect and then a couple more who are in A ball with a couple big tools. A big fastball, a 60 hit tool. Whatever. Tyler Black type prospects with higher upsides. Misiorowski type pitchers who maybe have 100 innings in.

I don't put a whole lot of stock into that BTV...BUT if you were a team like Baltimore who came off a 3 year run where they lost 108, 115 and 110 games in 3 full seasons(excluding the Covid shortened season) and then last year won 83 games in the toughest division in baseball...would YOU be excited to not only give up a pitcher who has Randy Johnson(sick of using deGrom as a comp) like stuff but as a RHed pitcher, PLUS the #2 overall prospect in baseball, PLUS this other pitcher who could be a future ace, but if he's not in DL Hall, will almost certainly be an elite SU/Closer? 18 years vs 2 years. If we're going to look at a 3-4 player package, we'd be better off maybe targeting one MLB ready prospect and then a couple more who are in A ball with a couple big tools. A big fastball, a 60 hit tool. Whatever. Tyler Black type prospects with higher upsides. Misiorowski type pitchers who maybe have 100 innings in.

I'll throw in Devin Williams with Corbin Burnes to make a Baltimore deal work. Rodriguez Holliday Westburg Felix Bautista For Burnes Williams(I have less and less confidence in Williams as his FB continues to drip from the upper 90s to the low 90s and he throws that Change the majority of the time). I'm willing to bet by the time this deal gets done, Brewers fans are going to be very disappointed. Not that teams aren't going to put a ton of value on Burnes, but this is a trade that's been thrown around for a while now. By the time a trade happens if it's not this off-season, a lot of the players we're talking about will be in the Big Leagues. I think it's more likely we get one blue chip prospect that's close to MLB ready and then a 2 more really good ones who have big upside, but are in maybe HiA, then a lottery ticket or something like that. Go back to the Zach Greinke trade and we gave up a top ~15 prospect(Escobar), a top ~75 prospect in Odorizzi and then a good probably underrated CF prospect in LoCain. Greinke was one year removed from 10.4 WAR, he was a enigmatic personality and IIRC he had a no trade clause, so it's not apples to apples, but...I think we end up closer to that than what most of us would like. ---Again, the X factor is always that desperate and poorly run team that has a hot streak and decides to go all in. Is that the D-Backs this year? One more thing, as I was just looking at teams that MIGHT be interested in an ace and willing to pay for it, I took a look at Boston's prospect lists. I had no recollection of this, but their top pitching prospect;

I'd ask for Buehler as well. Sure. When you're talking about a trade like this, I don't think you're going to end up within 1-4 in any trade. You're limiting yourself too much and it's not realistic. The Soto trade IIRF was 162 to 130 in favor of the Pads(maybe). It's gonna be fun to see how this plays out. The trade I really want to happen that does kinda line up on here, Vargas, Stone, Miller+...I don't think that's gonna be something the Dodgers will go for. They're run so well, I don't see them trading 18-24 years of players who are both MLB ready right now and who have high ceilings and low floors. For instance, if Stone or Pepiot don't hit as the aces you want them to, they're almost certainly going to be very good, valuable multi-inning relievers. And given the makeup of this organization right now, I would absolutely not be opposed to just compiling 7-8 pitchers who may not have 3 pitches or be able to be traditional workhorses and instead have a couple of guys who...like Freddy last year, you were happy to get 4 good innings out of, then bring in another guy who can give you 3-4 innings, go through the rotation 1 or 1.5 times, get to the end of your BP. I'm starting with a Vargas, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, Buehler trade for Burnes+...maybe a Garrett Mitchell. They could use that speed and CF defense, meanwhile if we have one good prospect I could see throwing in who I'm not totally sold on, it'd be Mitchell.

Normally that'd be very comforting. This year it seems like that means very little with regard to those two. Both times they didn't play this year they'd been practicing and teammates had expected them to play up until the last minute. Hopefully they're getting healthy and stronger because any hope we have kinda starters with those two staying on the field. Bakh has been the best LT in the league the last 3 weeks when playing(grade wise, missing a whole game doesn't help). Jenkins...well, he's not been very good...but maybe as he settles back in at guard he will be.

They are 2 of the top 4 prospects in the game who are in AAA or the Major Leagues. That pitcher has a deGrom like profile and he's 22. Expectations should be high...but also realistic.

They are 2 of the top 4 prospects in the game who are in AAA or the Major Leagues. That pitcher has a deGrom like profile and he's 22. Expectations should be high...but also realistic.

That is WAY over the top IMO. He's going to make roughly 30M the next two years. So that's giving him 4 years and 150M dollars for his FA years? And if it nearly doubles after this season...you're talking about the largest deal for a pitcher ever. Burnes is a...very good pitcher. This is the type of deal you give deGrom if he was 25 and you're the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets(who probably won't need Burnes). Nearly 38M a year and we're taking on all the risk? 5/130. He gets paid now and he hits Free Agency again when he's 33 years old and he is in line for another massive payday.

That is WAY over the top IMO. He's going to make roughly 30M the next two years. So that's giving him 4 years and 150M dollars for his FA years? And if it nearly doubles after this season...you're talking about the largest deal for a pitcher ever. Burnes is a...very good pitcher. This is the type of deal you give deGrom if he was 25 and you're the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets(who probably won't need Burnes). Nearly 38M a year and we're taking on all the risk? 5/130. He gets paid now and he hits Free Agency again when he's 33 years old and he is in line for another massive payday.

Khris Middleton isn't big enough to get out from Giannis shadow. I don't see him going anywhere(maybe Cleveland, but for a fraction of the money and still not scoring more). Giannis sets him up. He doesn't sacrifice points playing with Giannis, Giannis helps him get his shot. He'd be leaving Milwaukee at pretty much the same point in his career that Pippen left Jordan(though in this case, it'd be his own decision). Did Pippen leave Jordan's shadow? Now...Middleton for Kyrie would be an objective upgrade in terms of talent. And it may very well tear this team apart like it did the Celtics and now the Nets. You'd also ONLY be able to trade Middleton to the Nets in this scenario and the Nets would only be able to trade Kyrie to the Bucks. So Middleton would just be going and playing with longer, bigger, better player with similar attributes to him.

You either pay him or you don't pay anyone though. Unless you include him in a trade for multiple players and maybe you get a young player back who has some upside and you end up hitting on him, that could be one way to use him. But if it's a question between just signing him or NOT signing him, the only thing you're doing is saving the owners money, not fixing the cap. And I think we're going to have a whole of trouble to attract a #2 for Giannis. What assets do we have? I guess if you...hypothetically got out of Middleton's contract and you renounced ALL rights and all options...meaning you'd lose Brook Lopez, Jevon Carter(a player who's really developing into a key player), Jordan Nwora, Wes Matthews, you'd be left with 7 players on the roster and about 11.3 million in actual cap space. So...just like last time, Khris Middleton may not be worth the contract he's going to sign, but he's worth it to the Bucks because it's not about allocating those resources elsewhere. It's about spending them on Middleton, or not spending them at all. I'd rather spend them on Middleton. And then...at least if you make it a new 3 year deal, in his 3rd year, you might be able to turn that into a nice, younger player that another team who's trying to create cap space is willing to trade for you for his expiring contract. But you really need t

I'm pretty sure they're not related. One is from Cuba, the other from Venezuela and they're 6 months apart...they do have similar profiles though.

No, I do not. I'll try and do this one more time and if it doesn't hit, it's just not going to. Moving Urias from 3B to 2B is a significant upgrade defensively. Moving Adames from SS to 3B is a significant upgrade defensively. Sliding in Turang at SS in place of Adames MAY be a slight downgrade defensively. So no, I don't see a "flaw" in that sentence. The cumulative impact of the moves makes your IF defense better as a whole. Now...disagree...fine. But if you want to keep playing dumb and pretending you can't at least wrap your head around the argument I'm making...well, then I can't help you and it feels like you're being willfully obtuse at that point.

Improving your IF defense as a whole while maybe or MAYBE not improving your SS defense...is very reasonable. But AGAIN as I said(a few times now)...this has been discussed ad nauseum and I'm...pretty much done with it.

Improving your IF defense as a whole while maybe or MAYBE not improving your SS defense...is very reasonable. But AGAIN as I said(a few times now)...this has been discussed ad nauseum and I'm...pretty much done with it.

Well...yeah, obviously. He's a Cy Young winning starter who throws in their upper 90s...and the most important point, starter. Also, he's a starter! So yeah, if we end up with a similar return, I will turn over my Brewers fan card.

Garcia has played 20 games above LoA and hit .248./.269/.419 in those 20 games. If you put his LoA numbers and he'd put those same numbers up at AA, he'd likely be a tough call...but I think it's going to be pretty hard to justify rostering him for 90 days...before you send him back down. Either way, he's not likely to be a consequential piece of a Corbin Burnes for 3 top 75 prospects trade(2 top 13 and then the 73rd pick).

It's "literally" not. I "literally" articulated the reasons probably a dozen times now... They're all readily available...it just requires reading almost any of my posts in this thread.

It's "literally" not. I "literally" articulated the reasons probably a dozen times now... They're all readily available...it just requires reading almost any of my posts in this thread.

Both fangraphs and MLB pipeline grade him as a 60 in the field. He plays SS. I'd say that's elite. Also...again, didn't say he was Adames(who...incidentally was graded as a 50 grade in the field and a 60 arm due to questions about his range...which would provide more credibility to him being more than capable of playing 3B FWIW). AGAIN...I'm talking about the cumulative effect. Turang=Very good defensive SS. Adames-SHOULD be an elite 3B with his hands and his arm...which is obviously very strong. Urias-Clearly best suited to play 2B. So you're probably/possibly downgrading at SS a little bit and you're upgrading at both 3B and 2B. You could be well above average at all 3. They probably won't do it and nobody agrees...so this is probably just a dead subject at this point.