UpandIn

Pat attention to WHAT? You STILL haven't made a coherent argument as to why Gunnar Henderson will not be a top 10 SS prospect over the next 6 years. What point have you made? That we don't ABSOLUTELY know what he'll do over the next 6 years? Great. You don't know what with literally anyone. Christian Yelich put up the best two year stretch in Brewers history. Came back and hit .205. The absurdity of this argument would be like me pointing out that in 2021 Walker Buehler was worth 6.6 WAR and Burnes was worth 5.6 and now Walker Buehler is out for the year. You want to "pay attention," then look at what prospects the caliber of Henderson do, especially after performing at the MLB level. Feels like you're being a contrarian just...simply for the sake of being a contrarian. The consensus among Scouts and Executives have him as one of the top 2-3 prospects in baseball and he's already shown he's not overmatched by MLB pitching(yes, "but Hiura"). He's also an elite defensive player.

End of the day, if Baltimore offers Rodriguez and Westburg for Burnes, I'd probably jump on that. As for Urias...his brother...who was actually better(or was last year) is already penciled into that 2B spot next year. They're pretty much the same player, but Ramon is already there and...he's probably a better defender. They certainly don't have money like the Dodgers to spend overall, but they probably have just as much as the Dodgers to spend right now. Their payroll obligations at the moment are about 19M with all but ~3M going to deferred payments(again, another team paying Bobby Bonilla). So they could literally add...120M in salary this next year. They've been building up. By next deadline, DL Hall could have figured it out, Westburg could be rolling, and they could have another breakout prospect. But the most I think about this, the more I just don't see a competitive team trading 3-4 AAA/MLB caliber players...and not just caliber players, but players who are among the best prospects in the game...for 2 years of Burnes unless we're talking about the...Yankees, mayb ethe Brewers when they were desperate in 2011....or, again, the Angels. But they'd need a whole lot of prospects to really break out. No team is more desperate than the Angels.

Yes...but their collective value, particularly to Baltimore is effectively nothing. I don't see the Os on the fence about giving up Westburg and then saying, "yeah, but if they add Garcia, Perez and then Ramon's brother who's likely going to play the same position as Ramon, but wasn't as good last year, that'll tip the scales for us. I'd want an overpay for Burnes as well. And if we're going to get it, it's more realistic we get it from a team that has players in the lower levels of the minors and not players who are all expected to contribute on the MLB team next year when it's attempting to compete for the first time in several years.

Yeah...but when you talk about regression without naming any names, it make the conversation a bit more difficult to have. They're bringing back pretty much their whole roster, they've got guys like Peralta, Houser, Woodruff who missed time last year. Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Ruiz who should contribute next year(I think Wiemer is a guy who COULD, but he's also a guy who I think will take a little longer). Unless you're saying AFTER next year when it is more likely they start to trade players, I don't really get why you'd see a regression coming. Unless it's Devin Williams and people can tell me I'm irrational on that one all they'd like, I understand the underlying metrics don't support it, I just don't trust him). Projected IF Adames, Urias, Turang, Tellez, Jace(hopefully), Brosseau. I don't see much area for regression. Adames could very easily hit for less power, but I'd also expect a better BA/OBP just as we saw last year when his BABIP normalized. Turang from Wong could certainly constitute a regression offensively. Not likely to defensively. Urias-I don't really know, he's just a solid player. He was supposed to be a better hitter, that hasn't materialized, but I don't see a regression. Tellez? He's hasn't been good enough for a big regression to make a big difference. He hits for power and little else. The shift should help his numbers(while accounting for the fact that it'll help every LHed hitters). OF/DH-This is where I see a significant improvement. Yelich-The guy hits the ball hard and he hits it on the ground. Limited shift, he should hit better. If he actually puts time into training and working on his body and his core like Braun did(without taking steroids and then blaming the nice man of not liking a certain type of person) he just might get back. Either way, the walks should continue, and there may not be a LHed hitter who projects to benefit from the shift MORE than Yelly. Frelick/Ruiz>Yelich in LF Mitchell/Ruiz>Cain/Taylor/Davis in CF Renfroe=Renfroe(and Joey Wiemer at least offers the potential for a boost and if he falls flat, then he won't be in there for long. DH-Yelich>Than a rotating day off for players. May help him to just hone on on his ABs. SPing-Burnes/Woody/Peralta/Ashby/Lauer/Houser Always the chance for regression just due to injury, but I don't see a reason why you'd expect it. BP- They were already bad. And again, if you mean Williams, I agree. I also think Bush getting his FB up could make him a dominant reliever. Don't know what this group will look like, so it's hard to say if there will be regression. Regression is always possible in Baseball(or any sport). But I don't see any reason to expect it going into this season. Feels like this was the year we dealt with the regression and the injuries. I don't disagree that trading now may yield the best long term results, but this might be our best chance at fielding a WS type roster in 40 years. So you have to balance that.

Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years? Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was.

Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years? Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was.

Musta missed it. 376 in '71 and 346 in '72. There were 6-7 seasons with pitchers throwing ~340+ innings in just a couple year stretch there. Burnes has 375 the last two years(the only years he's been over 59 IP). So...I stand behind the point.

Musta missed it. 376 in '71 and 346 in '72. There were 6-7 seasons with pitchers throwing ~340+ innings in just a couple year stretch there. Burnes has 375 the last two years(the only years he's been over 59 IP). So...I stand behind the point.

Sure...they have 5 more that are...reasonably easy or games we should be expected to win, but then Cleveland twice in 5 games. That's gonna be a good test for this Bucks team. They have seemingly built a team that's designed to play the Bucks. Mostly by accident as I don't think they were thinking that when they traded for Allen and Mobley was kinda the obvious pick, but now they've got two 7 footers and Mobley is an agile defender who can come out and meet Giannis at the FT line instead of playing back on his heels with his foot speed. Allen can sit back and play the Lopez role. They have guys who can score it in bunches in Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Problem is, nothing on the Wing. They had the 5th pick in a 3 player draft, but still...you'd think they'd come away with a player with SOME value(Saddiq Bey was in that draft and would fit that team like a glove). I feel good with Jrue and Carter defending Garland and Mitchell and I don't know WHO the hell is gonna defense Ingles, much less Middleton when they get healthy. But exciting young team. I could see that being a game to keep a 13 game winning streak alive vs 12-2 Cleveland team. Good early season game.

Ok...lets say, hypothetically, the Dodgers are on board, but they want Williams back. Burnes+Williams for Vargas/Miller/Stone/Pepiot/Bruns You making that deal? How about if they want Garrett Mitchell? They're sick of waiting for Bellinger to get going, they want an athletic OFer with 5 tools and upside to patrol CF. So basically it's Williams and Mitchell for Pepiot and Bruns...who's got as much upside as any of their pitchers, but he's so far away.

Ok, I don't wanna nitpick this too much...because I get your point and Buxton is a FREAK talent when healthy, but I'm looking at it more like the flaws in their game and their peak and impact on their game. deGrom is pretty much the perfect pitcher when he's healthy...kinda like Trout is just about the perfect player when HE'S healthy. And remember, he has a degenerative back problem that's been ailing him. And we've never seen a full season of Buxton. We've seen several full seasons from deGrom, including back to back Cy Young's and one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. Buxton is a guy who's value comes largely from his defense and...you can get him out. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton break out and have a monster, MVP type season, but I'm not really counting on it. deGrom is the odds on favorite to win the Cy Young next year regardless what league he ends up in. BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1 Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). Kodai Senga 3/72 That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. Eovaldi 4/90 Chris Bassitt 4/74 Taillon -4/70 Zach Efflin 3/36 Now...hypothetically, lets say we traded both Woody and Burnes. I'd be out on Rodon because...why spend that money when you could have just signed one of those two(though you would get massive value back in prospects). That's actually a pretty reasonable price for Rodon, just...don't see the point. The two guys who I think Bowden is overestimating are Kodai Senga. I see him at more a 5 years @20M per with a PO after the 3rd or4th year. THAT I'd consider. It'd be a risk, but...I think a justified one. And then Nathan Eovaldi...but NOT at 4/90. I see him back in Boston at like 2/44 similar to Rodon with a TO for 30M. But the one that makes the most sense is Zach Efflin. Gets a lot of GBs. Whichever order we roll out our IF, it should be good defensively on the IF. He induces soft contact. He can be a swing man or a late inning reliever. Could allow the Brewers to use their pitchers a bit more freely. I'd prefer we go with more high end relievers like Suarez and Montero and spend just a bit more, but Efflin has some appeal to my mind.

Ok, I don't wanna nitpick this too much...because I get your point and Buxton is a FREAK talent when healthy, but I'm looking at it more like the flaws in their game and their peak and impact on their game. deGrom is pretty much the perfect pitcher when he's healthy...kinda like Trout is just about the perfect player when HE'S healthy. And remember, he has a degenerative back problem that's been ailing him. And we've never seen a full season of Buxton. We've seen several full seasons from deGrom, including back to back Cy Young's and one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. Buxton is a guy who's value comes largely from his defense and...you can get him out. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton break out and have a monster, MVP type season, but I'm not really counting on it. deGrom is the odds on favorite to win the Cy Young next year regardless what league he ends up in. BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1 Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). Kodai Senga 3/72 That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. Eovaldi 4/90 Chris Bassitt 4/74 Taillon -4/70 Zach Efflin 3/36 Now...hypothetically, lets say we traded both Woody and Burnes. I'd be out on Rodon because...why spend that money when you could have just signed one of those two(though you would get massive value back in prospects). That's actually a pretty reasonable price for Rodon, just...don't see the point. The two guys who I think Bowden is overestimating are Kodai Senga. I see him at more a 5 years @20M per with a PO after the 3rd or4th year. THAT I'd consider. It'd be a risk, but...I think a justified one. And then Nathan Eovaldi...but NOT at 4/90. I see him back in Boston at like 2/44 similar to Rodon with a TO for 30M. But the one that makes the most sense is Zach Efflin. Gets a lot of GBs. Whichever order we roll out our IF, it should be good defensively on the IF. He induces soft contact. He can be a swing man or a late inning reliever. Could allow the Brewers to use their pitchers a bit more freely. I'd prefer we go with more high end relievers like Suarez and Montero and spend just a bit more, but Efflin has some appeal to my mind.

Edit-Got a little excited about the Brewers bullpen and what I want to see it look like. The only real relevant part of this post is....yes! Yes...I feel like this is the part of the team that...even despite of the loss of Hader, is the area that's gotten progressively worse the last few years. Really since Knebel left/got hurt. I'd be alright running it back with this team, bringing in the rookies and then just adding two power relievers and then hoping you get Uribe and Ecerg or whomever to develop. Robert Suarez 2/16 3rd year TO Mutual 2.5 buyout. Guarantee 2/18.5 Rafael Montero 1/5 with(he's had a breakout year and he's got good velocity but it's just one year...I might go up to 1/8) I know we're not going to do this and I half want to see Jose Abreu signed instead, but I'd also like to just stock this bullpen and THEN if you get Uribe or anyone else break out, it just takes a strength and makes it that much better. You'd be kinda taking a piece of that 2018 team and then the 2021 team and trying to get the best out of both. Suarez gives you a CL/SU option, Montero can give you a dominant middle reliever. Really shorten the games to 5-6 innings...which would be HUGE on days Peralta/Ashby/Houser/Lauer throw as you wouldn't need to ask them to do too much. You wouldn't try and wring antoher inning out of them. Williams Suarez Montero Bush Strezlecki Cousins Milner Boxberger You'd have opening day rotation of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, Houser Uribe, Ecreg, Gasser, Gott(though he may be out of options, so swap him and Strez if so). Small could also certainly work his way in there. And maybe you start Ashby in AAA next year. Let him work on his pitches in game situations. Skipped AA and only 63IP in AAA. Give him some confidence and then bring him up and he really could step into that early Hader multi-inning role. I think it's lost on people, this dude was touching 99 this year and that slider is filthy. He just needs to learn to pitch a bit. He gets crushed in 0-0 counts and 0-2 counts(which...no pitcher should get hit hard then).

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on.

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on.

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971? Was it over 370 innings?

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971? Was it over 370 innings?

So you're going Vargas, Miller and Stone? I agree they have a need. I don't agree they NEED Burnes given how they develop pitchers, how they can identify pitchers. Tyler Anderson 2.57 ERA on his 5th career MLB team Never had a career of 4.86 the past 5 years. Andrew Heaney 3.10 ERA on his 4th career MLB team career ERA or 4.56. They identified something on both pitchers spin rates that they thought they could maximize his value. You get Urias back to be your #2, Gonsolin can be a #3...Kershaw is a #2/#3 and pitched very well in the WS Title they won, and they've got ~100M to spend. I really do think they're more inclined to go out and sign Verlander to that Bauer type deal than trade 3 players who could play big roles next year. And I take your point about pitchers needing time to develop, but the Dodgers, by virtue of their depth, have the benefit of stockpiling pitchers in the minors and they're SO deep in the rotation and in the pen, both middle relief and end of the BP.. But the larger point is...when is the last time the Dodgers gave up a package of prospects like the one we'd be looking for in return for Burnes? Their last two trades of consequence, Betts they paid so they didn't have to give up that type of trade value. Scherzer and Turner-They got those two almost comically cheap. The one pitcher they got there didn't have a grade over 50 across the board. And Ruiz...who looked like a nice prospect, but not in the league of Miller or Vargas. So in summary, yeah, I'm sure they'll want Burnes. I'm not sure they'll give up what it takes to get him. I think the Dodgers would prefer to spend money rather than prospects...and if they DO trade prospects, I don't know that I trust the Brewers to trade for the right ones. The prospects the Dodgers trade for are just...NEVER their best. And now they've got this crop that's been top 6 the past two years...elite talents, maybe the core of their organization moving forward. But give up Vargas, Miller and....Stone or Pepiot(especially when they've refused to part with Miller and Pepiot...or Stone, I can't recall, but they were rebuffed in trade requests)...that may not mean everything, but it also suggests they like them a lot, and now they're MLB ready. We'll see how this plays out, but I think Friedman prefers to use the MASSIVE pocket book he's got(which is only getting bigger) and use FA to for the significant additions and then use the farm to build around them. That's how you win 323 games over the last 3 full seasons and 1 World Series. Now the Yankees or the Mets or a couple of teams who aren't run as well or who aren't as patient with player development, I can see them giving up what we'd want for Burnes. Particularly the Mets. But I also don't think they'll trade him this year.

That's...not really true. The first half of Kidd's career is when he was obviously the best. When he received votes for MVP(rookie year through 2004)...when he was all NBA 1st team, 1 2nd team...all before 2004. That's when he was at his best. He was a 32.5% 3 point shooter. The second half of his career he shot 37%. The 3 point shot extended his career, it's not what made him a HOF PG though. He was a big PG with a preternatural ability to see the floor and anticipate both passing lanes offensively and defensively. But, Jason Kidd also wasn't a 6'10 defensive stud. Ben Simmons can absolutely play a huge role without being a jump shooter and certainly without being a 3-point shooter. It's not complicated with Simmons. It's a similar ideology as the Bucks use with Giannis. Surround him with shooters. The Nets have done that and they've done it MUCH better than the Bucks have(which is important because Simmons ain't Giannis). His problem is he's playing timid, he's playing soft. He has to get over that. He's got the size and the quickness to be the best defender in the league. He can stay in front of Trae Young, he has the size to matchup with Giannsis. But if he's ceding ground to Giannis and constantly on his heels, then he's obviously useless. 2019-2020 or 2020-2021 Ben Simmons on this Nets team and they compete. He's about as good of a fit as you can get. Not if he's playing scared though. Then they're just another team. Problem is, he's so in his head right now, everytime he takes an ugly shot, it's on ESPN. Same thing happened to Giannis and it didn't bother him a bit. So...he's gotta man up. Or don't, I'm worried enough about Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

It's not logical...getting more value when you have 1.5 years of team control vs 2, but I agree with you. Take...any number of teams who've been in long droughts or desperately want to win a WS. Maybe the Angels jump out to a 60-40 start next year. Ohtani is a pending FA they're trying to re-sign, they've hit on a bunch of prospects who are having big years, or the Rangers after their Fa splurge find themselves in the same position with some of those promising young arms working their way up, plus the teams that come into the season with a strong rotation that loses a key arm due to injury...Houston, LAD, NYY, Toronto(particularly the later). That's when I could see an overpay. Conversely, if Sal Frelick comes up and he's slashing .300/.380/.430 and Yelich is back to .280./.370./500 without the shift, Turang...not lighting the world on fire, but he's getting on base. .270/.340;/.300 while paying elite defense at what'll likely be 2B and we're up 4-5 games, Ashby, Peralta, Lauer throwing the ball well...then it's hard to justify a trade. This team could be a legitimate WS contender...it could be a middling playoff caliber team. There's no doubt that you can win no matter what if you get in, but...there's a difference between being a team with an elite pitching staff, a good lineup with table setters, middle of the order hitters and then flawed bottom of the order hitters like the Dodgers...and a team like the Phillies. Either can win with these short series, the fluky nature of baseball, but are you better 24 years of top ~100 prospects and maybe a couple of true difference makers on that distinction? I think they know they CAN win a WS. But again, is it worth it to go for it when you need to upset 3-4 teams to win it or if you're one of the favorites. Anyway, good post, I agree.

It's not logical...getting more value when you have 1.5 years of team control vs 2, but I agree with you. Take...any number of teams who've been in long droughts or desperately want to win a WS. Maybe the Angels jump out to a 60-40 start next year. Ohtani is a pending FA they're trying to re-sign, they've hit on a bunch of prospects who are having big years, or the Rangers after their Fa splurge find themselves in the same position with some of those promising young arms working their way up, plus the teams that come into the season with a strong rotation that loses a key arm due to injury...Houston, LAD, NYY, Toronto(particularly the later). That's when I could see an overpay. Conversely, if Sal Frelick comes up and he's slashing .300/.380/.430 and Yelich is back to .280./.370./500 without the shift, Turang...not lighting the world on fire, but he's getting on base. .270/.340;/.300 while paying elite defense at what'll likely be 2B and we're up 4-5 games, Ashby, Peralta, Lauer throwing the ball well...then it's hard to justify a trade. This team could be a legitimate WS contender...it could be a middling playoff caliber team. There's no doubt that you can win no matter what if you get in, but...there's a difference between being a team with an elite pitching staff, a good lineup with table setters, middle of the order hitters and then flawed bottom of the order hitters like the Dodgers...and a team like the Phillies. Either can win with these short series, the fluky nature of baseball, but are you better 24 years of top ~100 prospects and maybe a couple of true difference makers on that distinction? I think they know they CAN win a WS. But again, is it worth it to go for it when you need to upset 3-4 teams to win it or if you're one of the favorites. Anyway, good post, I agree.

Yeah, a contract with a big base contract. Chances are pretty good the Packers trade for him...IF he'd have gotten more money in a SB and less in guaranteed base salary...but they've also already got ~75M in dead cap space from Watson, Cunningham, Mercilus(and about a dozen other players). So that was likely the hold up. They just couldn't give up a 3rd and then take on another 16M in base salary next year...or, just as bad, restructure that and then kick ~10M or so down the year with void years and more cash up front. It's funny, I think we all wanted the Packers to be more aggressive during Ted Thompson's time, but then once we are more aggressive, we sign FAs, then Covid comes, there is a ~45M difference between what you THOUGHT the cap would be and where it ended up and now you're chasing your tail. This is that phrase we got backward in the US. "Have your cake and eat it to." Which of course doesn't make sense. Don't give me cake if I can't eat it. But this is Cooks wanting to eat his cake(get paid) and have it to(then pick where he goes). So nah, don't feel sorry for him one bit. He's made like...150M in his career and has barely been consequential. Now he's pouting? Fine him a game check.

You're right. He was overpowering, but lacked command. Very good K rates, low BA against, induced soft contact. Definitely didn't dominate, but I'd say his performance indicates he's going to be a very productive MLB pitcher.

He's definitely providing a spark. It's way too early to make any declarations, but he and Carter both look like they could be very key long term pieces. Carter as a role player and Beauchamp...he's not gonna be a #3 or #4 scorer this year, but the way he defended Cade Cunningham, the way he gets out on the break, the way he cuts, he's got a natural feel for the game, he's got length and he's explosive. And he busts his ass on both ends. I like this kid. I THINK the way he's played...it might make the Bucks a little more confident in a potential trade where they deal Allen, Nwora and then maybe...Hill or whatever it may be to match salaries. Starting to see a couple glimmers of hope as Middleton and Jrue start to get a bit older and need a little bit of time off. Also, outstanding to see this team come out and just dominating teams without 2 of their playoff rotation players, their ~8 deep. Hopefully at this point it's Jrue/Carter, Connaughton/Allen, Middleton/Ingles, Portis, Lopez and Giannis.

Well...one of those years was 2020, so that's really not meaningful. He's Jacob deGrom. You might take him over Burnes, but he's healthy...and I suspect you'd be in the overwhelming minority on that. I love Burnes. He's great. deGrom is in a league of his own however. It's 11.4 WAR vs 8.5 WAR since 2020...and again, deGrom WAS injured much of that time. The other has been in his prime and won a Cy Young. That in and of itself is insane. deGrom is all the way back, averaging 99 MPH on his FB again. There's just no comp for him. If he hadn't come back or was still having shoulder issues, absolutely, the risk would be too great. But he came back from a stress fracture in his shoulder and was as dominant as ever. deGrom has allowed 1 or fewer run in almost HALF of his starts...for his entire career. That is...incomprehensible.