Jake McKibbin

How common is it for a 16 year old to get even nine innings of Winter league work?

I love this piece! Really interesting breakdown. Megills knuckle curve was so effective when healthy last season, as you mentioned, at slowing down bats and preventing true damage on his fastball. One interesting observation from the playoffs is how two pitch pitchers were less effective in multiple stints facing the same lineup in Clase, Williams and Diaz. There is a trend of growing arsenal's in the league now (I saw something recently, perhaps from Lance Brozdowski?) and I'm curious when that will start filtering into the bullpen rather than isolated to starters

Jorge Quintana had an up arrow last year, this year we've got it for Brailyn Antuñez it seems! They seem to like him for the bat speed, rangey speed and a plus arm with a good feel for spin and hitting in general Always exciting to see a player (however young) present a variety of tools

While weights do play a role, I think Blacks speed is still a strong part of his profile. Also there is a plateau where adding muscle weight stops bringing the same level of improved exit velocities. He does have a shorter swing than Dunn, and there's the trade off of that which brings less power but allows him to make a lot of contact when he does swing. I was trying to look more along the lines of can he access more power production without any major technical changes/build changes, but I'm sure some added bulk wouldn't be out of the question!

Certainly can't slate taking a direction that's worked so well in previous years, it'll be intriguing if that means being more cutthroat with second year players in the DSL to make room going forwards, and get regular playing time for the younger class

The positionless left-handed hitter saw his prospect stock dip in 2024, in part because his bat wasn't strong enough to distract anyone from his defensive struggles. Can he tap into more offensive production in 2025? Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports For hitters with a strong defensive skillset, like a Copper Pratt, recording a 114 WRC+ over a full season in Triple A would be a fast track to some major-league time. Unfortunately, when you struggle to play even first base, that doesn't quite cut the mustard. Tyler Black's long-term defensive home is likely in the outfield—more specifically, in left field—which requires a certain level of offensive production. Depending on how the Brewers use Sal Frelick this season (and of course the injury concerns that will perennially surround Garrett Mitchell and Christian Yelich), Black may find some playing time there, but in order to stay in the big leagues as a corner man, he'll have to unlock more power. In an offense-friendly environment, with a small strike zone due to the ABS system, Black's slugging mark of .428 last year in Nashville doesn't stand out from the crowd. He can be passive at the plate for someone with such strong pitch recognition, and his current profile is that of someone trying to grind their way on base rather than do damage. The Brewers have a lot of hitters in this style already, and it gives his offensive production a high floor, but limits the ceiling. There's a strong possibility that his slugging rate will dip below .400 against major-league pitching. Assuming his swing is what it is at this point, and the exit velocities aren't going to spike dramatically, there is still a route to more power for him—two routes, in fact. The first is his swing decisions: The graphics above, from Thomas Nestico, aren't entirely aligned, given one is measured over plate appearances while the other is per pitch faced. That being said, the timelines should be roughly similar, so if I superimpose the two graphics over one another, an interesting trend emerges. The more Black chased, the higher his xwOBA appears to be (xwOBA attempts to measure the expected offensive contributions a player makes per plate appearance, based on their contact rates and the quality of their batted balls). Arguably, then, a slightly more swing-happy Tyler Black can provide a stronger offensive contribution than the passive version. Now, this can be broken down a little into specific scenarios. Being more swing-happy in 0-2 counts is never a great position to be in, but Black's bat control allows him to make solid contact and foul off pitches even when he does chase. The art of pitching is to make a pitch look hittable out of the hand, only to move into a less desirable location, and perhaps Black can afford to be more aggressive when he sees a pitch that looks good, rather than consistently trying to work the count in his favor. The other avenue is his pull side power, and more specifically, pulling fly balls in the air. Again, see the graphic below from Nestico: It sums up Black's profile nicely, with great plate discipline and contact skills and low exit velocities. As we've seen of late, even low exit velocities can produce solid in-game power by pulling fly balls. The shorter fences, and the mechanics of a swing, make this a viable method for low-EV hitters to get the ball out of the park, and Black is no different in that regard. Twelve of Black's 14 home runs in 2024 came to the pull side. He is currently a player who hits to all fields, but if he can increase that pull rate to something more in the 80th percentile and meld it with his strong launch angles, he may be able to reach that 15-20 home run range that should make him an everyday big-league player. Black doesn't need to hit 30 home runs a season. He has the ability to get on base at a strong clip and be an absolute menace on the basepath; he stole 55 bases in 2023. His speed will allow him to leg out doubles and support that slugging number, so sitting in the 15-20 home run range as an average left fielder would make him a valuable regular for almost any team. Currently, though, he projects to hit only about 10 home runs based on the exit velocities above. That won't be enough from left field. Do you think Tyler Black has more power to unlock in 2025? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

I am a little surprised not to see more Brewers players in the 50-100 range given the size of their bonus pool and lack of top end (ie top 30) spend. I wonder if this might be a really large class overall with a really spread out bonus pool, even more than usual

BA mentioned good receiving skills and a plus arm 👀 yet another strong defensive pickup in the international draft perhaps?

Love reading these Michael! As a later fan of the sport, it's so fascinating to learn about

Financial projections do require presumptive numbers without the actual public numbers, however I feel with A) teams reported going to MLB.tv that they lost ~ 20% of their revenue, which would equate to $7m for the Brewers; B) a 50% larger CBT, increased by a net $50m (in the portion shared between revenue sharing recipients) and the Brewers meeting the criteria and beyond in order to be at the upper part of that dispersement, Makes this all quite logical. I can't say for 100% certainty on the figures without a source, but the logic checks out from a fiscal view point and I hope I've made said logic easy to follow in the article. I maybe should have included a probability adverb, but given no one was considering the revenue boost in particular from the CBT dispersal, I considered it okay to go with a blunt statement, though I can at least see your viewpoint. Anyway I'll leave it there, I hope you guys enjoy the piece!

They absolutely are getting more cash, and most people wouldn't consider the CBT cash increasing, hence the title. The amount is speculation, but I'm confident in being at least in the ballpark

On top of the new TV deal with FanDuel Sports Network, the Brewers' share of proceeds from the league's competitive-balance tax should provide a nice infusion of spending power—but how much of a difference will it make? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Excuse me while I get slightly nerdy to begin with (I do love me some numbers). The current competitive-balance tax limit penalized teams who spent over $237 million on player salaries and benefits in 2024, using various tax rates on any amounts spent beyond that and the higher thresholds. The greater the degree by which you surpassed the limit, the higher your tax due, up to a maximum of 90% taxation for the top bracket—with repeat offenders facing escalating penalties. It's a big reason why teams like the Dodgers are trying to defer as much money as they can, in order to reduce their CBT obligations. The tax thresholds for 2024 are: Amount Payor Exceeds Competitive Balance Tax First Year Second (Consecutive) Year Third (Consecutive) Year Less than $20m ($237.1m-$257m) 20% 30% 50% Between $20m - $40m (Between $257.1m-$277m) 32% 42% 62% Between $40m - $60m (Between $277m-$297m) 62.5% 75% 95% Over $60m (Over $297m) 80% 90% 110% The system punishes big spenders both for being consistently over the "luxury tax" threshold, and for exceeding the limit by significant amounts. In 2024, there was an MLB record of nine payers, who should pay roughly the balances below: The 2023 total was a record at $209.8 million, so the 2024 iteration has blown past that number. These funds must be paid by Jan. 21 each year, and are redistributed by the Commissioner's Office in a process defined by the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement. The first $3.5 million goes to fund players' benefits, with half of the remaining money going to the MLB Players Association to fund individual players' retirement funds. Here's where it gets interesting: the other half gets dispersed amongst revenue sharing payee clubs (effectively markets with below-average revenue earnings). And yes, that includes the Milwaukee Brewers. The method through which funds are shared depends on a team's efforts to build up their own product. Increases in ticket sales, merchandise sales, and other factors are used to assess if a team is making positive steps to be competitive and self-sufficient, without unduly rewarding teams who "tank". So in total, $153 million and change will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed among revenue sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years. The Brewers drew 2,537,000 fans in 2024, just 14,000 lower than their 2023 numbers, but Rick Schlesinger commented on lower "no-show" rates. Meanwhile, TV ratings are amongst the top three in baseball. It's hard not to believe that the buzz around Jackson Chourio impacted off-field sales somewhat, while a fuller ballpark (due to the lower no-show rates) will have aided the concessions and stadium surroundings sales. All in all, it's highly likely the Brewers are recipients of the supplemental commissioner's discretionary fund, and have been for some time. As a result, they probably have nearly $10 million more than we've been accounting for, and every incentive to roll it back into the team. It might not sound like much, but combined with the return of the FanDuel TV deal, the Brewers may have found around $12-$14 million more in their pockets this offseason. From what was a very tight payroll approaching the new year, it seems some additional funds have materialized. Can they use it to reinforce their infield mix? Add some thump to their lineup? Who knows, but the funds are now there to make a move. Might they see fit to spend it on the type of one-year, take-a-chance deal they've been known for over the last six years? If so, who would you see them spending it on? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Funny, I have two articles scheduled and this one has been published first. I'll leave it til the next lens published but I believe they may have slightly more to play with than initially believed based on two factors, but I'll keep the rest of the details close to my chest on this one. If that is the case, what would your thoughts be?

The Blue Jays shortstop averaged 4.2 bWAR for three years from 2021-2023 from the left side of the infield, before last season was heavily affected by injuries. Should the Brewers seek to buy low, and broach a trade for the half-fallen star? Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images The Brewers need something on their infield: A little stardust, some razzle-dazzle to add some actual punch to a lineup that operates more on the line of pinpricks. Meanwhile, across the border, the Blue Jays are trying to keep their core and bolster it with star talent via free agency, but without any success over the last few years. While they're still attempting to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr to a long-term deal, they're much more likely to listen to offers on their talented shortstop, Bo Bichette—who has just one year remaining until he, too, hits the free-agent market. Bichette's upside is well-known. A hitting machine, his bat-to-ball skills (even when chasing outside the strike zone) are superlative, and his power production is the kind the Brewers are in desperate need of from their infield. Bichette had 73 home runs from 2021-23; swatted 103 doubles over that span; and led the American League in hits in 2021. He showed that over a long period of time, he will consistently hit the ball hard, in the air, and avoid striking out at an above-average rate. Here's a breakdown of his skills progression from 2022 to 2023, via Thomas Nestico (@TJStats on Twitter). Yes, he chases a lot, and he gets swing-happy even at the best of times, but his bat control is such that even when chasing, he makes solid contact. It lowers his walk rate, but because of the consistently high batting averages, his on-base rate is still above-average. The other plus point for Bichette is his defense. He is a slightly below-average shortstop, but his range would be better than most third basemen, and he can more than competently play the left side of the infield—although second base may be a better fit for him in a roster picture that didn't include Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz. The 2024 results were not what we've been used to seeing from Bichette, but a calf strain in the middle of June kept him out for a while, and that was followed by a fractured finger that finished off his season, Bichette had several hurdles he was attempting to push through. After a sluggish start to the season, he regained his old form and production in May and June, before the calf injury derailed him. We should feel some security about what a healthy Bichette will provide in 2025. The price for Bichette in a trade will be higher than you might like, based on the idea that this is a buy-low situation. He's due $16.5 million on the final year of a deal he and the Blue Jays struck to avoid arbitration, which should mitigate his trade value somewhat, but it's also likely that his 2024 performance was an outlier, rather than a new standard—and to pry him away from the Jays, a team would have to be willing to bet on that very thing. We also have to consider that, because of his profile and past performance, Bichette will likely command a qualifying offer, reject it, and provide a compensatory pick for the 2026 MLB Draft. That's a fairly minor consideration, but it gives Toronto incrementally more leverage. As such, acquiring Bichette would likely require the following: Tyler Black (1B/LF) Brewers #5 - The Blue Jays have space in left field alongside Joey Loperfido, who has by no means proved himself at the big-league level just yet and offers an extreme strengths-and-weaknesses profile. Black could fill that, or—if things go a different way—he could blossom at first base beginning in 2026. The Blue Jays have the defensive versatility to find a home for Black amongst a variety of playing positions, and being Canadian, it seems like a nice fit for Black, after the Brewers re-signed Jake Bauers to a minor-league deal. Juan Baez (2B/3B) Brewers #28 - A bat that profiles similarly to Bichette, Baez is swing-happy, but folds in a low strikeout rate due to his strong out-of-zone contact. In addition to sneaky power and a good hit tool, Baez seems capable on the left side of the infield, with good actions—although he is prone to mental errors at this early stage in his development. Baez shone in the Arizona Fall League at the stunningly young age of 19 and is a rising prospect, who should fill out the infield competently sooner, rather than later. It is a costly trade, but if the Milwaukee Brewers want to maintain their competitive window, they need some infield reinforcements. They're trading away a strong offensive player who seems to be on the outside of what the Brewers need currently from a defensive standpoint, and a second/third baseman in a plethora of infield prospects the Brewers currently have in the minor leagues. Bichette is a difference-maker, and if the Brewers can catch him in an on-form year, he'll take them to a whole new level for 2025. The salary is more than the Brewers may like to pay, but even so, I think he's the type of player that it's worth taking a flyer on to go a few million bucks over your budget. The bigger question is whether or not the Blue Jays pull themselves out of their lethargy for long enough to take advantage of what they have and bolster their long-term projections. They're unlikely to compete with the Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees this season, and trading Bichette would help them restock a farm system that currently ranks among the game's worst. Would you make this trade for one year of Bo Bichette (plus a likely comp pick)? Would you make a deal, but offer less, or give up more to get it done? Or is he just not the type of player you can see on the Brewers? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

I might disagree with some of this, but I have to say I love the balls to the wall approach!

Rhys Hoskins, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal. The Brewers do their best work in January, and with a critical need on the infield, they should be chasing after this high-upside (if injury-prone) third baseman. Image courtesy of © Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images January has typically been the time of the year when the Brewers make their biggest moves. Capitalizing on players feeling isolated and bereft of big offers, they've struck some strong one-year contracts during the David Stearns and Matt Arnold regimes. Even those that fell short have been no fault of the Brewers, and we're at that time of year again. Yasmani Grandal joined the Brewers on a one-year deal, albeit an expensive one, to forge and showcase defensive improvements and hit the market as an altogether more attractive proposition a year later. The Brewers took a flier then, and they could do so again now, with a third baseman who is just crying out for a healthy season and a quality playing environment. Yoán Moncada had yet another injury-plagued season in 2024. Amassing just 850 plate appearances over his last three years, he hasn't managed to remain fully healthy in any of them, and it took a particular toll in his limited sample size in 2024—where even his greatest strengths deserted him. That said, Moncada is going into the offseason with a clean bill of health and should be ready to go in a brand-new environment, away from the turgid 2024 White Sox and with a chip on his shoulder. It would be difficult for anyone to perform in the environment in which Moncada played last season. With immense pressure as a former top prospect and the ways in which his body has betrayed him of late, it would have been highly frustrating to be off the field yet again. That being said, there is considerable reason to believe the talent that made him that prospect still lurks under the hood. Throughout his time in the major leagues, Moncada has shown he can elevate the ball well, with an impressive 89.2% in-zone contact rate in 2024 (top 30 in baseball). Despite being clearly injured even before going out for the year, he produced a league-average quality of contact and showed enough signs that, with a gamble on health, you could get a strong season out of him. Moncada's signature strengths are an ability to elevate the ball consistently and get the barrel of the bat to it, with above-average exit velocities and good plate discipline that he uses to selectively target which pitches he can ambush. It's a skill set that will fit in well with the Brewers, who lack hitters with the type of 20-home-run upside Moncada still has. In a different lineup and a ballpark like Milwaukee's, amidst the culture they currently have, Moncada may be able to find a new lease on life, and even more relevantly, his defense isn't a sticking point. Baseball Prospectus considers him to be an above-average defender at third base, with a strong arm and solid range, although injuries may be eroding the latter. He still showed himself to be average at third base in 2024, per both Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus, something the Brewers will no doubt prize highly. Going back as far as 2021 is a risky endeavor for assessing a player, but to highlight what a full season of a healthy Moncada can produce, we must. He struck out more than you would like, but offset that with a strong walk rate while punishing mistake pitches. He's an above-average offensive contributor with solid to above-average defense when healthy, and he could be the final piece to the Brewers' puzzle for their 2025 roster. So to summarize, Moncada has: Positive defensive value in each of the last five full seasons, per FanGraphs A career 107 WRC+ WRC+ of 120 and 139 in each of his last two healthy seasons (2021 and 2019, respectively) An upper-echelon rate of line drives and fly balls for his career Combining this creates a profile that the Brewers could use, if they intend to stave off a rejuvenated Cubs roster and reduce the number of black holes in their lineup, a factor critical to their success last season. The Brewers' needs for 2025 likely extend to a one-year deal on the left side of the infield. Cooper Pratt should be no more than a year from the majors, barring injury, and when you consider Mike Boeve and Brock Wilken also bringing some upside in the case of healthy seasons, the Brewers don't need to chase a multi-year deal. Moncada is in no position for a multi-year deal of his own, but a strong season to remind the doubters what he's capable of may propel him to such a contract in 2026. As such, his decisions should be based on which environments he feels he could excel in, and where he'll be given the chance to take an everyday role. The Chicago Cubs won't have that, with Matt Shaw close to ready, whereas the Brewers have a hole that he can seize if he wants it. This is by no means a sure thing. It's a big risk if you want someone you can rely on over the course of a season, but the Brewers lack the budgetary freedom to make moves that contain more consistency. They need an impact bat, and they can't afford to pay a whole lot for one. Moncada's deal is projected to be around $5-8 million, and some of this can probably be deferred to 2026 via a mutual option. With the FanDuel Sports deal signed, the Brewers should have an about that much money in newfound flexibility this offseason. Maybe it doesn't end up being spent on Moncada, but this is the time to pay close mind to the Milwaukee Brewers. January is their favorite time to strike. The Brewers have a habit of targeting former top prospects after their shine has disappeared. Could Yoán Moncada be next? Would you sign him to a one-year deal of, say, $7 million? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

In a passive offseason from the Milwaukee Brewers, how much will their Opening Day lineup have changed from that of 2024? Let's see if we can unscramble it! Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Before getting started, I'm assuming good health from those returning from major injuries and a healthy spring. Obviously, we know better, but there's no other way to do this exercise. With that in mind; Lineup & Batting Order 1. Sal Frelick - RF (L) - Frelick overtook Brice Turang as the team's leading contact specialist, and with a hint of more power under the hood, he should lead off on Opening Day. 2. Jackson Chourio - LF (R) - Chourio's ability to impact the game with power, speed and a terrific hit tool means he needs as many plate appearances as possible. His speed should prevent the double play ball that the other candidates for this gig are prone to, and many expect his home run total to soar in 2025. 3. Christian Yelich - DH (L) - Yelich's time in the outfield will no doubt be managed carefully this season. The back surgery he had has unlocked power in those MLB hitters undergoing the procedure previously, and his bat-to-ball skills and hard-hit rates should continue to be in the upper echelons of baseball. With these three, the Brewers have plenty of power, speed, and grit at the top of their order. 4. William Contreras - C (R) - The top catcher in Major League Baseball, Contreras offers a powerful bat that profiles wonderfully in the cleanup spot—hopefully with RBI opportunities aplenty. If the Brewers can manage his workload, they may get even more production at the plate. 5. Garrett Mitchell - CF (L) - Maintaining the left/right balance the Brewers enjoy, Mitchell's powerful bat has continued to defy the underlying expectations. If he can manage the high fastball to any degree in 2025, he could be a superstar for the Brewers, in a similar mold to Jarren Duran for the Red Sox. 6. Rhys Hoskins - 1B (R) - Rounding out the middle of the order is another high home-run candidate. Hoskins was disappointing in 2024, but when healthy at the start of the year, he was one of their most dangerous hitters, with a 127 WRC+ and nine home runs in the first six weeks. Can he rediscover the punch in 2025? 7. Brice Turang - 2B (L) - Turang took a step forward in 2024, if not quite a quantum leap, and his gritty at-bats can give way to danger for opponents when he reaches base. In part batting here due to the left/right combinations, he can provide a second-leadoff platform and a stolen base threat after Hoskins. 8. Joey Ortiz - SS (R) - Another hitter who struggled after a mid-season injury, Ortiz showed enough last season to believe his bat can take a step forward. Showing some plate discipline, strong bat-to-ball skills and sneaky pop alongside his defense at shortstop will give the Brewers a premium infield. 9. Caleb Durbin - 3B (R) - Durbin likely has the edge in the matchup against Oliver Dunn, with a skill set that suits the Brewers' predilections better. His solid contact skills and pull-side, line-drive power have drawn comps from writers to the bat of Steven Kwan, but it remains to be seen how much pop he can access in the majors. Another electric runner on the basepaths, Durbin provides a strong floor from the 9-hole. The Bench Andruw Monasterio - 1B/2B/3B/OF (R) - Monasterio is in the most precarious position on the roster as things stand, but I can see him making it on Opening Day as their utility infielder. With both Turang and Ortiz capable of playing a plus shortstop, the whole infield is covered, and Monasterio has been developing in the outfield in the Winter Leagues. He's batted .302/.402/.421 in a career-high 43 games and 190 plate appearances in the Venezuelan Winter League. More relevantly, Oliver Dunn needs consistent playing time, and he won't get that in the majors. Blake Perkins - OF (S) - Blake Perkins is a strong option as a fourth outfielder. He slightly outperformed his peripheral hitting metrics last season, but I'm not sure you'll find a smoother center fielder in all of baseball. When the inevitable injuries hit, Perkins will be a blessing. Eric Haase - C (R) - Although there are rumors that the Brewers are looking into further catching reinforcements, which is fascinating, as things stand, Haase will be their Opening Day backup catcher. Showing a lot of pop and a lot of swing-and-miss, he's capable enough defensively to spell William Contreras and calls a fantastic game behind the plate. Tyler Black - 1B/OF (L) - I was tempted to gamble on Ernesto Martinez Jr out of spring training, but Black adds a left-handed bat that should be valuable as a pinch-hitter. He can also be a solid pinch-runner, for someone like Haase or Hoskins. With an injury-prone outfield, Black profiles to get more game time out in the grass than on the infield dirt, and his bat profiles well enough to provide roughly average production if he can find his power to the pull side. Starting Rotation 1. Freddy Peralta (RHP) - While 2024 was underwhelming in many ways for Peralta, he's still the undeniable leader of this staff due to health issues elsewhere. He's been durable and has far and away the best raw stuff in this rotation. 2. Nestor Cortes (LHP) - The Brewers' biggest offseason move so far, Cortes offers a deceptive delivery, durability and consistency. He produced a 2.44 ERA in 158 1/3 innings in 2022 with a variety of fastballs and strong command that should play up in the Brewers system. His batted-ball profile also fits Milwaukee's roster like a hand in a glove. 3. Aaron Civale (RHP) - Since joining the Brewers from the Tampa Bay Rays via a July trade, Civale has rediscovered his Guardians form. His new, shorter slider grades out impressively in Stuff+ metrics, and his pitch usage has seen him provide some real quality for the Brewers, with a 3.45 ERA after the All Star break. 4. Brandon Woodruff (RHP) - Woodruff should be more or less ready by the start of the season, having gotten back on a mound in September. While his bulldog mentality remains, it will be fascinating to see if he can recover any of the swing-and-miss stuff that made him such a nightmare for opposing hitters at his best. 5. Tobias Myers (RHP) - Recording a sub-3.00 ERA wouldn't place you at the back end of many rotations, but Tobias Myers did flirt along the line of a lower level of performance. When his fastball was hot, so was he, but at times, it became quite hittable and as such it's unlikely he outdoes what his peripherals are saying throughout 2025 as well. That being said, he showed in the playoffs just how effective he can be, rounding out a rotation without an obvious weakness. 6. DL Hall (LHP) - Hall is hoping a fully healthy knee will allow him to rediscover some of the life on his fastball that made him such a tantalizing prospect for the Orioles. If he can, Hall may push his way into starting regularly in a six-man rotation (something the Brewers will want, given Woodruff's shoulder and the general prevalence of pitching injuries). The secondaries looked sharp to finish the year, so if he can find just a little more life on the four-seamer, he could be a real difference-maker. Bullpen Aaron Ashby (LHP) - An electric arm that can generate both ground balls and strikeouts at a high rate, Ashby delivered an eye-opening performance out of the bullpen in September 2024 that came out of nowhere and leaves him almost locked into the Opening Day roster. He may do so as a high-leverage arm, or a multi-inning man, but he could fill both roles with aplomb. Trevor Megill (RHP) - The high-octane four-seamer and his dastardly knuckle-curve made Megill deadly in 2024. He filled in admirably while Devin Williams was injured, racking up 21 saves in the process. He's likely to be the closer for the 2025 Brewers. Jared Koenig (LHP) - Unlocking significant velocity improvements since roughly the middle of 2023, Koenig pitched to a 2.73 ERA in 2024 in 56 innings. The deceptive lefty proved effective as a fireman, coming in during big situations in the middle to back end of games, and he should continue this role in 2025. Bryan Hudson (LHP) - After a full offseason to recover from the tribulations that hit him in the second half, Hudson is still likely to be on the Opening Day roster. He led the Brewers bullpen (min. 25 innings) with 62 strikeouts and a 1.73 ERA. His sweeper proved borderline unhittable, and his fastball and changeup played far above expectations due to his deceptive delivery. Nick Mears (RHP) - With an over-the-top, high-velocity fastball not unlike Megill's, Mears has some major upside. Hopefully, a full offseason with the Brewers staff will help him with the home-run problem that plagued him in 2024 after the trade. His raw stuff is certainly not in question, and with a good start, he could become a dark horse to close out games this year. Joel Payamps (RHP) - A necessary foil in a lefty-heavy bullpen, Payamps is nonetheless someone the Brewers could trade before Opening Day, to clear his roughly $3-million salary. He found his slider again in the second half of 2024, having lost it in the first half, and the results returned to those of a strong set-up man. Connor Thomas (LHP) - The Brewers' Rule 5 pickup from the Cardinals, Thomas is likely to be given every chance to stick with the big-league team. Possessing a six-pitch arsenal headlined by a strong slider and cutter, Thomas should be able to eat innings at the back end of the bullpen. He'll have a chance to force his way into higher leverage after that, but for now, he's likely to fill the role that belonged to Bryse Wilson in 2023 and 2024. Jacob Misiorowski may push his way into a multi-inning relief role off a strong spring training, while Grant Wolfram and Elvis Peguero will no doubt be eyeing a way into the mix. Then there's the forgotten man, Abner Uribe, who may need to recalibrate at Triple A but has shown he has more than enough raw stuff to dismantle big-league hitters when healthy. Can you see any of these fringy choices forcing their way into a crowded bullpen mix? Could Craig Yoho or Logan Henderson join the crowd? What changes would you make to this proposed lineup? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Freddy Peralta is the likely ace of the Brewers staff again in 2025, but it’s fair to say his 2024 results didn’t live up to expectations. By cleaning up some pitch-tipping and a wayward pitch mix, can he find his best self in 2025? Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Some of you who follow me may know that I have an obsession with Freddy Peralta. His raw stuff is some of the best in the league, showing (in short bursts) how capable he is of blowing away the best hitters in the world. The problem is he can’t do it consistently, and after a roaring finish to the 2023 season, he tailed off slowly and inexorably throughout 2024. Game after game, it seemed like hitters could lay off his breaking pitches with more ease than you would expect, and I may now know why. A good indicator of how well a hitter can recognize a pitch is how often they swing at it, inside and outside the strike zone. A combination of pitches moving in different ways will keep them off-balance, as will having a similar release point on multiple offerings. The goal is to have hitters swinging more often at pitches outside the strike zone, especially fastballs, and taking more of them inside the zone to work ahead in the count. Doing so requires a variety of pitches moving in disparate ways. Here are Peralta's swing decision metrics from 2021 and 2024 on his fastball: As you can see, hitters swung significantly more often inside the strike zone, despite Peralta finding the zone less often in 2024. Combining that with a lower-than-ever swing-and-miss rate on his four-seamer suggests Peralta may have been struggling with a lack of deception. Before turning to the tipped pitches, let's first review his pitch mix alterations; The Pitch Mix Progression A slight side note, but an important one: In 2024, Peralta used his changeup more than ever before, to the detriment of his curveball. In 2021, the curve was distinct from his slider and gave him two distinct breaking pitches. As the changeup has developed and his slider changed shape (more to come on this later), the curveball has been pushed to the side, which will be relevant when we look at release points in a little bit. He became more comfortable with the pitch part way through his 2023 season and continued to increase its usage. Despite average stuff+ grades, the pitch performed fantastically. On its own, the cambio is not the cause of his struggles. You’ll see below in the map from Thomas Nestico (TJstats on Twitter) that all of Peralta’s pitches had above-average swing-and-miss but poor xWOBACON, which showcases that when he got hit, he got hit hard. This has always been the case for Peralta, partly due to a lack of command that can result in too many walks and too many meatballs. As a fly-ball pitcher, that’s a dangerous combination, which does tend to bite him. That being said, it was never as extreme as this, particularly against the fastball. Hitters had an expected slugging mark of .419 against it in 2024 (only 2019 was worse) and an xwOBA of .330 (worse than any prior season). In short, the fastball was being recognized, targeted, and pummeled. So why was his electric four-seamer, with a TJstuff+ grade of 106, on the receiving end of so much damage? Freddy Peralta Was Tipping His Hand, And His Pitches The answer to this is twofold. Peralta’s deceptive “rise” has historically come from his low arm slot. It creates a perception that the pitch is rising as it reaches the hitter, but that changed in 2024. As you can see, in 2023 Peralta's fastball (the red line) was released on a similar arm angle to his slider and changeup, but in 2024, it was released from a higher arm angle more closely resembling the release point of his curveball. This release point might have been okay, had he thrown the curve at a significant rate in 2024. Instead, he relegated it to more of a show-me role, and with the lowered usage, Peralta’s release point for the four-seam fastball had nothing to blend with. It looked just different enough than his main secondaries for hitters to pick up on the disparity. When I say that it's noticeable, here's how Peralta's release point used to look, compared to how it looks now: In the above version from 2021, you can only see the barest hint of a red speck directly behind the yellow and green release points. It's an almost identical release with his slider and changeup. In the 2024 points below, it's almost entirely separated, half-hiding behind the curveball release point in blue. This may not seem to be a large difference, but to a big-league hitter, it's all they need, especially if the curveball isn't a large factor in their swing decisions. It might not get picked up as readily the first time Peralta faces a lineup, but it became easier to pick up as hitters faced him a second and third time. Coincidentally or not, he saw a lot more damage against him the second time through an order this season. Arm angles can fluctuate naturally, but the fact that he lost some of his alignment with the changeup and curveball that had previously fluctuated together with the four-seam fastball suggests there may have been deliberate intent behind it. Matt Trueblood wrote about Peralta's changes in mound position and mechanics (including stride direction and posture, as well as arm angle) in August, and that seems to be a salient consideration, too. To delve deeper, I asked our pitching expert Spencer Michaelis, who suggested that if it was a deliberate change, it could be done in search of better command; a higher arm slot often gives the pitcher a better feeling of control of the pitch. That command improvement didn't materialize in 2024, and I could even argue that the loss of deception put increased scrutiny on dotting his fastball. To back this up, Pitch Profiler has a model that estimates a pitcher's ability to tunnel his offerings; the metric that evaluates that skill is called Match+. The measurement assesses how similar a pitcher's arsenal appears at a hitter's decision point (150 milliseconds before the ball reaches the plate). In 2021, Peralta was in the 92nd percentile for Match+. He dropped all the way down to the 20th percentile in 2024, and has been declining since increasing the changeup usage and throttling back the curveball. Peralta's pitch-tunneling is on the decline, and without taking steps to remedy it, 2024's results may augur a continued downward trend in overall performance. The good news is, if it was a deliberate change, it should be far easier to rectify. If it was injury-related, that's a different proposition altogether, but given the arm angles of his slider and changeup, I'm inclined to believe it's the former. The Return Of The Sweeper One other point of difference is the variation in Peralta’s slider from the 2021 version compared to its 2022-2024 iteration. In 2021, Peralta had a definitive sweeper (even after the sticky stuff ban came in, in case you’re wondering), and he had the best xwOBA against sliders of his career in that season, at just .306. The reason it was so effective lies in how the shape differentiated from his curveball to create a distinct movement profile: On the right, you can see the separation between the yellow (slider) and blue (curveball) splatters in 2021, the slider in particular being a relatively tight cluster. Now contrast that with 2024: The cluster of sliders is a lot more expansive, coming closer to the movement profiles of the fastball and overlapping more often with the curveball. Part of the reason for this is that Peralta tries to vary his slider shape for different situations, with our own Matt Trueblood estimating him to have as many as four different variations. When a hurler manipulates a pitch that much, however, it becomes more difficult to execute it consistently. The reduced contrast in the movement profile places added pressure on Peralta to hit his spots with precision. The results are tough to argue with: he had vastly more success with both his sweeper and his curveball than he’s seen since modifying the sweeper to a variety of slider shapes in 2022-24. In adding separation between the two breaking pitches, Peralta's results on his fastball surged. The added horizontal and vertical movement kept hitters off-balance, to the point that they were swinging underneath far more of his fastballs, with a higher whiff rate. Good stuff will do that to hitters; it's why having multiple strong pitches in your arsenal is so valuable at the major-league level. The sweeper-fastball tandem begot the most pitcher-friendly contact profile of Peralta's career, when he had it working. It also creates an entirely different look for a hitter. When they see a ball out of the hand that appears to be on the inner third of the plate and high, a sweeper can swing that pitch away off the outside edge of the strike zone. With more regular slider(s) and a changeup with minimal horizontal movement, Peralta has reduced the horizontal plane his pitches work on, and made it easier to swing at the fastball and changeup inside the strike zone. So Can It Be Fixed? Barring injury concerns, it’s entirely feasible that Peralta can readjust the arm angle on his four-seam fastball, and tunnel that pitch more effectively with his breaking pitches—especially now that he’s using the changeup with more regularity. The added deception for a starting pitcher who predominantly used just three pitches would be momentous, and could help the signature fastball become a real difference-maker once again. The sweeper is another matter, and maybe an even easier correction for him. The balance it provided the rest of his arsenal may allow him to reduce his four-seam fastball usage in favor of a more varied arsenal that incorporates the curveball more often (because of the more diverse breaking planes of the pitches), thus boosting the outcomes of his entire repertoire. Having four legitimate offerings with 12%-20% usage will keep hitters off-balance, creating the kind of results we saw in 2021 from Peralta regarding the quality of contact against him, and maybe even allow him to live in the strike zone with more regularity. Regardless of how good your pitches are, if an MLB hitter can identify it, then it won't succeed for long. Peralta's fastball has become easier for opposing hitters to target, and it's a trend that he has to address, one way or another. The sweeper shape return would be an added bonus, but the fastball is his bread and butter. Without that deceptive release point, he may never truly find the performance he's capable of once more. I would like to give a special mention to Pitch Profiler and TJstats for allowing me to use their models for analysis. If you haven’t already, both are worth a follow on your social media of choice, with an incredible level of detail and evaluation available there and on their Patreon sites. What do you think of Peralta’s fastball and secondaries before the 2025 season? Do you think he can rekindle his 2021 form, or is it expected to be a slow downward trajectory from here on out? Does this article change your opinion of him at all? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article