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Jake McKibbin

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  1. Let’s be clear: Christian Yelich’s back health seemed instrumental to the season he put up, stealing 20 bases for the first time since 2019 and falling just short of the 20 home run mark. Add in the improved defense, and it’s fair to say this may have been his healthiest year in a while, but his success came down to far more than just his back. With an .800 OPS for the first time since 2019 and more consistent power surges from June onwards, is it fair to say that Yelich could, in fact, be on the comeback trail? The Approach In previous seasons, Yelich sometimes had a passivity at the plate, which prevented him from accessing his slugging capabilities. I wrote an article earlier this year on how Yelich’s first pitch swing rate has a remarkable correlation to his slugging numbers, which rebounded significantly this season. In short, Yelich wanted to work the count and get on base rather than drive the ball and punish pitchers. Here are his stats through each count in 2023 compared to 2022 per FanGraphs: The biggest difference between these is in the Isolated power stat. In counts where he got ahead, the only time he had an ISO (Isolated Power) above .200 was in a 3-0 count. In 2023, he achieved this in every batter-friendly count save the 2-1. In particular, I should draw attention to those gaudy numbers in a 2-0 situation, which highlights why pitchers pitch around him so often. It also means that if they try and get ahead early, his ability to do damage on that first pitch is critical. One other approach-related point is seen above. Ignoring his monstrous ground ball rates for a second during his prime months of 2023 (June and July), it’s interesting to note the raised number of balls he hit to center field rather than pulling them. Yelich has more than enough power to clear the fences in straightaway center, and the reduced shift may allow him more freedom to take advantage of the shortstop and second base gap. It resulted in a big increase in the hard-hit balls during these months and is something they may look to do more of in 2024. Can His Back Hold Up? In short, yes, but with a supplement. Christian Yelich will likely need some breaks here and there to rest his back when it starts playing up, but the key for him will be not if he has these breaks but whether or not he can quickly find the power stroke that makes him one of the more dangerous hitters in baseball. With the outfield mix going into 2024 featuring several flying young studs, he can afford more time at DH with William Contreras (injury permitting). His bat is his carrying tool, and in hindsight, it appears clear that Yelich should have been rested far earlier in August despite his on-base prowess. His hard hit rates plummeted, suggesting an underlying injury; however, when he returned after a two-week break in September, across 31 plate appearances, Yelich had ten hits, with three doubles and two home runs for a .400/.516/.760 slash line. If and when he does need stretches on the Injured List, this type of return to strength will be pivotal. 130 games of a slugging Yelich is far more valuable than 150 games of on-base-focused Yelich, something the Brewers will address in their approach in 2024. Where Can He Still Improve? One of the big areas in which Yelich still struggled was against left-handed pitching, specifically due to one pitch. Identifying and laying off the slider going down and away from him was a real issue, particularly when you compare to his contact in every other zone; As you can see, not only did he swing and miss excessively, but he also had a meager expected batting average against this pitch, whether inside or out of the zone. Contrast that with the damage when he can force pitchers onto the plate’s inner part, and it could take him another notch up. Overall on the year, Yelich hit .234/.302/.331 against southpaws, and addressing this issue with the slider could go a long way to providing some added impetus both for the Brewer's struggles against starting left-handers and for his season-ending stat line. Overall, Yelich showed considerably more promise in 2023 than he has for a long time, with long runs of demonstrable power giving the results that justify his hefty contract. If he can focus on the above adjustments he made in 2023 and better manage the back alongside the team, there’s earnest hope that Christian Yelich could bring out an OPS in the .900 range again.
  2. Kutter Crawford pitched to a 4.74 ERA in over 200 innings for the Red Sox in the last two seasons, which is not inspiring. However, his underlying metrics suggest a player primed to break out in a big way, and with the Red Sox feeling the pressure to show some intent, he could be a very valuable player in a trade with the Brewers, either for an Alex Verdugo replacement in the outfield, or a marquee player like Corbin Burnes. Here’s why. Image courtesy of David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports The Red Sox have very obvious needs, as it stands, in terms of their starting rotation and outfield if they want to compete in 2024. For such a large franchise, the pressure is growing to show a more competitive product on the field, which the Brewers can help address. However, this will come at a cost, and Kutter Crawford is likely to be a centerpiece of any trade. Crawford made massive strides in 2023 that weren’t borne out in his final stat line, particularly behind his four-seam fastball. Crawford used elite command in the upper part of the strike zone to hold hitters to just a .177 batting average against his primary offering. With above-average swing and miss, his spin rates are elite and promote an average break of almost three inches over the norm. As a result, he coaxed hitters into getting under the ball a lot, something the Brewers' rapid outfield mix would gobble up with glee, which can be a hindrance with the Green Monster in left field. He has similar above-average movement profiles on his cutter (another incredibly well-located pitch that he likes to go high and away to right-handers with) and his curveball. The cutter ran into some misfortune this year in terms of his expected stat line, but the curveball was destroyed, leading to some pitch development behind the scenes. In June, Crawford debuted a sweeper as an off-speed offering, which showed serious promise, with hitters going just .128/.205 against it alongside a 36.5% swing and miss rate. It has the potential to separate itself as the main off-speed pitch in 2024, something that could take his performance to the next level. The interesting thing about the sweeper is that it doesn't generate great movement characteristics. However, the strength of Crawford's rising fastball and cutter make it play up to a highly competitive level, laying a platform for success over his remaining years of team control. The Brewers have shown great success in coaching up off-speed pitches, something that Crawford's split-finger may benefit from. Still, the main premise is that replacing his curveball with the sweeper or even balancing the pitch mix substantially between the two is a fast-track pass to better results on the pitch. His dominant fastball helped him to an xERA of just 3.25 last season, with solid chase rates, hard hit rates, and walk rates. He has all the makings of a number two or three starter in the right organization. Why does he suit the Brewers? The Brewers' internal scouting department has a propensity for targeting pitchers with a feel for creating movement on the ball. These traits have created a dominant rotation in the past, with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Eric Lauer all showing high spin fastballs to generate above-average swing and miss. Crawford fits this bill, and further development to his off-speed pitches (he also worked on a splitter this past year) could see him ascend to the next tier of starting pitcher. He is arbitration-eligible in 2026 and is under team control through the 2028 season, giving the team a lot of time to produce some high upside from him. Crawford is also a lower profile acquisition in terms of hype, which could allow better players to accompany him as part of a deal for Burnes than, say, a Brayan Bello would bring in. Matt Arnold has expressly stated he wants to feel like the Brewers are winning every trade they get into. With Yamamoto off the market, Burnes is likely to get a lot more attention from some desperate big market clubs, and as such, the price will have to be substantial to pry him from the Brewers. Kutter Crawford could be the central piece of that package from the Red Sox. Another aspect to consider is the desire for solid pull-side power from the right-hand side in Fenway Park, something the Brewers currently have in an outfielder. Joey Wiemer has a lot of work on to quiet his swing and reach his potential. However, his ceiling is indisputable, and his towering pull power, combined with the electric defense and cannon arm, would suit the Red Sox to a tee. View full article
  3. The Red Sox have very obvious needs, as it stands, in terms of their starting rotation and outfield if they want to compete in 2024. For such a large franchise, the pressure is growing to show a more competitive product on the field, which the Brewers can help address. However, this will come at a cost, and Kutter Crawford is likely to be a centerpiece of any trade. Crawford made massive strides in 2023 that weren’t borne out in his final stat line, particularly behind his four-seam fastball. Crawford used elite command in the upper part of the strike zone to hold hitters to just a .177 batting average against his primary offering. With above-average swing and miss, his spin rates are elite and promote an average break of almost three inches over the norm. As a result, he coaxed hitters into getting under the ball a lot, something the Brewers' rapid outfield mix would gobble up with glee, which can be a hindrance with the Green Monster in left field. He has similar above-average movement profiles on his cutter (another incredibly well-located pitch that he likes to go high and away to right-handers with) and his curveball. The cutter ran into some misfortune this year in terms of his expected stat line, but the curveball was destroyed, leading to some pitch development behind the scenes. In June, Crawford debuted a sweeper as an off-speed offering, which showed serious promise, with hitters going just .128/.205 against it alongside a 36.5% swing and miss rate. It has the potential to separate itself as the main off-speed pitch in 2024, something that could take his performance to the next level. The interesting thing about the sweeper is that it doesn't generate great movement characteristics. However, the strength of Crawford's rising fastball and cutter make it play up to a highly competitive level, laying a platform for success over his remaining years of team control. The Brewers have shown great success in coaching up off-speed pitches, something that Crawford's split-finger may benefit from. Still, the main premise is that replacing his curveball with the sweeper or even balancing the pitch mix substantially between the two is a fast-track pass to better results on the pitch. His dominant fastball helped him to an xERA of just 3.25 last season, with solid chase rates, hard hit rates, and walk rates. He has all the makings of a number two or three starter in the right organization. Why does he suit the Brewers? The Brewers' internal scouting department has a propensity for targeting pitchers with a feel for creating movement on the ball. These traits have created a dominant rotation in the past, with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Eric Lauer all showing high spin fastballs to generate above-average swing and miss. Crawford fits this bill, and further development to his off-speed pitches (he also worked on a splitter this past year) could see him ascend to the next tier of starting pitcher. He is arbitration-eligible in 2026 and is under team control through the 2028 season, giving the team a lot of time to produce some high upside from him. Crawford is also a lower profile acquisition in terms of hype, which could allow better players to accompany him as part of a deal for Burnes than, say, a Brayan Bello would bring in. Matt Arnold has expressly stated he wants to feel like the Brewers are winning every trade they get into. With Yamamoto off the market, Burnes is likely to get a lot more attention from some desperate big market clubs, and as such, the price will have to be substantial to pry him from the Brewers. Kutter Crawford could be the central piece of that package from the Red Sox. Another aspect to consider is the desire for solid pull-side power from the right-hand side in Fenway Park, something the Brewers currently have in an outfielder. Joey Wiemer has a lot of work on to quiet his swing and reach his potential. However, his ceiling is indisputable, and his towering pull power, combined with the electric defense and cannon arm, would suit the Red Sox to a tee.
  4. Bruh was loving April 20th a lil much 😂 It makes a ton of sense, but I think the crew would've had serious eyes on Drew Thorpe and him going to the padres may have flummoxed the deal. Or it'll cost the Yankees a ton in terms of quantity of prospects
  5. Interesting, I'd agree the Yankees may want him more, but the Giants system is really pitching heavy with more intriguing high end talent The Braces are a shout I hadn't considered, I think for them it's how they feel about the playoffs. Their offense is so good, and with Fried and Strider that's some serious top end talent. If any of smith shaver etc develops, there's your playoff rotation, so maybe less of a need to go overboard?
  6. The signing of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto with the Dodgers has left some big market teams feeling a little more desperate for various reasons and some pressure to contend heavily in 2024. The San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees have their reasons for attempting a coup of one of the game's premier starting pitchers, but the competition may create a heavy price. Here’s what the trades may look like. Image courtesy of © MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL / USA TODAY NETWORK Such a highly prized catch as Burnes is expected to have a remarkably low salary in the $16 million range, increasing his value to potential suitors, something that couldn’t be said of recent Dodgers acquisition Tyler Glasnow. The Brewers will likely want a return involving at least one high-ceiling pitcher, though the farm systems of the big markets aren't quite as high-end as they may like, providing a potential deterrent. Burnes may also be more open to a long-term deal after a front-row seat to the Brandon Woodruff saga, which increases his potential attractiveness. However, Scott Boras's clients usually go to free agency. New York Yankees The Yankees invested heavily in acquiring Juan Soto from the Padres, who did a raid on several high-upside arms that the Brewers may have had their eyes on. In acquiring Soto, with just 2024 remaining before hitting free agency, the organization has signaled its intention to compete on a higher level than they’ve managed in the past few years. After Carlos Rodon’s signing went horribly in 2023, they need a pitcher to follow on from Gerrit Cole, and there’s no better candidate than Corbin Burnes. Chase Hampton, their number 5 prospect, would have to head the Yankees package. Hampton is a right-handed pitcher at Double A with a high spin rate fastball in the 91-95 mph range that plays at least plus, touching 98 mph on occasion. The feel for spin extends to his breaking pitches with high potential and movement on his curveball and slider, which could lead to him being a strong number two starter. Since turning pro, he has also added a cutter into the mix. A solid frame at 6’2" and 220 lbs, Hampton struggled a little at Double A this season but produced a 3.63 ERA in 106 ⅔ innings over 20 starts. Scouts put his struggles down to sequencing more than anything and believes he’ll move quickly in 2024, but his stuff is electric. The Yankees are high on Will Warren, too, so it’s not decimating their pitching pipeline. The issue after Hampton for the Yankees is the dominant outfield talent, while the Brewers may be looking more for middle infielders in a trade. The Brewers may also want Luis Gil, a high-upside pitcher who looked good in 2021 before needing Tommy John surgery at the beginning of 2022 with 38 strikeouts in 29 ⅓ innings and a 3.07 ERA. Gil has undoubted quality in his raw stuff, averaging almost 97 mph with the fastball and a wipeout slider that hitters flailing all ends up. There may be other bits in the trade, but expect these two to be the primary part of a significant switch. There may be other pitchers, including Will Warren, who pitched to a solid 3.61 ERA in Triple A and has a nasty slider. The Yankees can’t afford to bring in Soto and no one else; they need to bolster their rotation, which will exact a high toll. San Francisco Giants An element of concern is beginning to circulate over whether high-quality players want to sign long-term deals in San Francisco, given the sheer volume of rejections they’ve faced recently. Struggling to compete with the Dodgers in the market for their new Japanese phenoms, the Giants need to make a splash, something the signing of Burnes would accomplish. With a year to showcase the city as something a player will appreciate, this deal could take advantage of a certain desperation. Jung Hoo Lee is unlikely to be the star they crave so that Burnes would be a huge acquisition for fans of this ancient franchise, and they have a much better-stocked farm system than the Yankees. With Kyle Harrison likely off the table, eyes should next turn to Carson Whisenhunt, the Giants' number three prospect (MLB no. 70) with one of the best changeups in the minor leagues. Rising from Low-A to Double-A ball, he had 66 ⅓ innings on the season with a 2.17 ERA, 97 strikeouts, and just 24 walks, mainly brought about by a truly dominant six starts in High A. His changeup produced a swing-and-miss rate of 59% in his 2021 college season and is the highlight of his offerings, playing off his 93-94 mph sinking fastball. Command is key to his success with the fastball, but his development was sadly cut short with an elbow strain in July, thankfully avoiding Tommy John surgery. The Giants have a gluttony of pitching in their top 30 prospects, something the Brewers may find particularly appealing, and with Whisenhunt expected to return in spring training, there is a huge ceiling for him. He needs to develop his frame to add some velocity to the fastball and work on a third offering, but he has all the tools to be an elite starting pitcher. Alongside Whisenhunt, no. 10 prospect Hayden Birdsong has some intriguing pitches in his arsenal. A 60-grade fastball with supreme movement in the 93-97 mph range combined with an above-average to plus curveball with impressive depth, while he has the makings of a solid changeup, Birdsong has a lot of potential but struggled in Double A to finish 2023. He struck out 172 in 112 ⅓ innings on the season, but the 47 walks hurt him a little. He improved in High A with his control before being promoted aggressively to Double A in August, and the hope is it will continue to develop as he progresses through the system. The raw stuff is there; if the control can be refined, the sky's the limit for Birdsong. There are likely other pieces to be attached here, and I've suggested high-ceiling players over their more solid counterparts. However, it's worth noting the Giants appear very ready to splurge more than they should, as evidenced by league sentiment over Jung Hoo Lee's contract. The Brewers may get an absolute haul from the Giants, who are close to being able to contend in 2024; Burnes may even push them there on his own. View full article
  7. Such a highly prized catch as Burnes is expected to have a remarkably low salary in the $16 million range, increasing his value to potential suitors, something that couldn’t be said of recent Dodgers acquisition Tyler Glasnow. The Brewers will likely want a return involving at least one high-ceiling pitcher, though the farm systems of the big markets aren't quite as high-end as they may like, providing a potential deterrent. Burnes may also be more open to a long-term deal after a front-row seat to the Brandon Woodruff saga, which increases his potential attractiveness. However, Scott Boras's clients usually go to free agency. New York Yankees The Yankees invested heavily in acquiring Juan Soto from the Padres, who did a raid on several high-upside arms that the Brewers may have had their eyes on. In acquiring Soto, with just 2024 remaining before hitting free agency, the organization has signaled its intention to compete on a higher level than they’ve managed in the past few years. After Carlos Rodon’s signing went horribly in 2023, they need a pitcher to follow on from Gerrit Cole, and there’s no better candidate than Corbin Burnes. Chase Hampton, their number 5 prospect, would have to head the Yankees package. Hampton is a right-handed pitcher at Double A with a high spin rate fastball in the 91-95 mph range that plays at least plus, touching 98 mph on occasion. The feel for spin extends to his breaking pitches with high potential and movement on his curveball and slider, which could lead to him being a strong number two starter. Since turning pro, he has also added a cutter into the mix. A solid frame at 6’2" and 220 lbs, Hampton struggled a little at Double A this season but produced a 3.63 ERA in 106 ⅔ innings over 20 starts. Scouts put his struggles down to sequencing more than anything and believes he’ll move quickly in 2024, but his stuff is electric. The Yankees are high on Will Warren, too, so it’s not decimating their pitching pipeline. The issue after Hampton for the Yankees is the dominant outfield talent, while the Brewers may be looking more for middle infielders in a trade. The Brewers may also want Luis Gil, a high-upside pitcher who looked good in 2021 before needing Tommy John surgery at the beginning of 2022 with 38 strikeouts in 29 ⅓ innings and a 3.07 ERA. Gil has undoubted quality in his raw stuff, averaging almost 97 mph with the fastball and a wipeout slider that hitters flailing all ends up. There may be other bits in the trade, but expect these two to be the primary part of a significant switch. There may be other pitchers, including Will Warren, who pitched to a solid 3.61 ERA in Triple A and has a nasty slider. The Yankees can’t afford to bring in Soto and no one else; they need to bolster their rotation, which will exact a high toll. San Francisco Giants An element of concern is beginning to circulate over whether high-quality players want to sign long-term deals in San Francisco, given the sheer volume of rejections they’ve faced recently. Struggling to compete with the Dodgers in the market for their new Japanese phenoms, the Giants need to make a splash, something the signing of Burnes would accomplish. With a year to showcase the city as something a player will appreciate, this deal could take advantage of a certain desperation. Jung Hoo Lee is unlikely to be the star they crave so that Burnes would be a huge acquisition for fans of this ancient franchise, and they have a much better-stocked farm system than the Yankees. With Kyle Harrison likely off the table, eyes should next turn to Carson Whisenhunt, the Giants' number three prospect (MLB no. 70) with one of the best changeups in the minor leagues. Rising from Low-A to Double-A ball, he had 66 ⅓ innings on the season with a 2.17 ERA, 97 strikeouts, and just 24 walks, mainly brought about by a truly dominant six starts in High A. His changeup produced a swing-and-miss rate of 59% in his 2021 college season and is the highlight of his offerings, playing off his 93-94 mph sinking fastball. Command is key to his success with the fastball, but his development was sadly cut short with an elbow strain in July, thankfully avoiding Tommy John surgery. The Giants have a gluttony of pitching in their top 30 prospects, something the Brewers may find particularly appealing, and with Whisenhunt expected to return in spring training, there is a huge ceiling for him. He needs to develop his frame to add some velocity to the fastball and work on a third offering, but he has all the tools to be an elite starting pitcher. Alongside Whisenhunt, no. 10 prospect Hayden Birdsong has some intriguing pitches in his arsenal. A 60-grade fastball with supreme movement in the 93-97 mph range combined with an above-average to plus curveball with impressive depth, while he has the makings of a solid changeup, Birdsong has a lot of potential but struggled in Double A to finish 2023. He struck out 172 in 112 ⅓ innings on the season, but the 47 walks hurt him a little. He improved in High A with his control before being promoted aggressively to Double A in August, and the hope is it will continue to develop as he progresses through the system. The raw stuff is there; if the control can be refined, the sky's the limit for Birdsong. There are likely other pieces to be attached here, and I've suggested high-ceiling players over their more solid counterparts. However, it's worth noting the Giants appear very ready to splurge more than they should, as evidenced by league sentiment over Jung Hoo Lee's contract. The Brewers may get an absolute haul from the Giants, who are close to being able to contend in 2024; Burnes may even push them there on his own.
  8. What are the chances of Crow ending up a minor league FA on the back of his TJ surgery?if he had results like bradley blalock for instanxd would he be added to the 40 man? It's very much a risk and reward strategy, but would hate to lose a solid to above average (slightly) outfielder and solid back end starter for nothing at all in a years time
  9. Marte and Frelick were similar in terms of prospect status, and potentially very similar WAR wise going forwards, the German trade is two injury prone players but again an infielder with lesser defensive skills and a higher potential bat I can see the Cardinals more open to a trade due to Friedls prominence last season, but both these trades I genuinely believe could be seriously beneficial to both sides if all parties stay healthy
  10. Teams still have hang-ups about making trades within their divisions. Even in the hyper-rational world of modern baseball, giving a direct rival a player who might knock you around for the next half-decade is nerve-wracking. Nonetheless, a few fits worth discussing are out there. Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports On Monday, Cody Schoenmann of Twins Daily wrote about a series of trade proposals involving the young, controllable Twins infielders and the young, controllable Brewers outfielders. All three were reasonable, plausibly beneficial deals for both sides. However, there are others who, even more distasteful as they may be as partners, might take a keen look at the plethora of athletic outfielders the Brewers have, and who have the prospects to make a big trade happen. Let's see which teams within the NL Central might have an eye on this young crop of stars: The Brewers have too many outfielders for the season ahead, with arbitration-eligible Tyrone Taylor accompanying Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins as players rumored to be in the shopfront window. With Taylor having three years' service time remaining with the Brewers, and the others even more, any trade should bring back equivalent high-ceiling or high-floor talent in a position of need. Let's take a look at who that could involve, inside their own division: Cincinnati Reds - Noelvi Marte for Sal Frelick Both of these players had introductions in the second half of 2023, albeit with completely different profiles at the plate. Marte has the type of raw power you dream of in a prospect, and he's still learning to tap into it more. However, he finds himself in the midst of a crowded infield, with Elly de la Cruz, Matt McLain, and newly-signed Jeimer Candelario manning the more athletic infield spots. Meanwhile, the Reds have many options in the outfield, but not many with the type of competence on both offense and defense that Frelick possesses. TJ Friedl was their best hitter among outfielders. Yet, he was 11th-percentile or lower in exit velocity, xwOBA, and hard-hit rate--all key predictors of sustainable success. He was also the only outfielder with a positive Defensive Runs Saved figure for the Reds, who ranked 28th in the league in DRS overall. Putting Frelick alongside him in the outfield, and setting the tone at the top of the order, could fit really nicely for the Reds. Marté, on the other hand, is currently playing third base, but is an adequate shortstop and above-average second baseman (although his arm may be under-utilized at the keystone). He's the type of bat the Brewers just could not get into their infield last season, hitting .316/.366/.456 in 114 at-bats for the Reds. The scouts suggest that he's still learning how to tap into his power better, but he's a good fit for the Brewers, in dire need of both some extra juice and a capable infielder at the plate. The only downside is that the Reds may consider him more use in acquiring a high-end pitching talent, something they're in even more desperate need for. The Brewers could try centering a Corbin Burnes trade around Marté, but the Reds might be loath to give up their dynamic infielder for a player they'd only have for one season. St Louis Cardinals - Garrett Mitchell for Nolan Gorman Even suggesting a trade with the Cardinals seems insane, but here goes. For all the talk of Pete Crow-Armstrong in the Windy City, Garrett Mitchell might be the best defensive center fielder in the game of baseball when healthy. With quality reads, electric speed and a strong arm, he's ubiquitous in the outfield, with the type of bat that can change a game when he runs into one. Mitchell has the wheels to steal 40-plus bases in a fully healthy campaign, something he was denied last year due to a freak injury on the basepaths. He's still fine-tuning his decisions at the plate, but his underlying talent is not in question. A full season of average production at the plate is likely a four-win player, given what else he brings to the table, and he has five years of club control remaining. Nolan Gorman has a more proven bat, with an electric start to 2023 petering out after some injuries in the summer. A subpar defender at second base with (perhaps) a more natural home at third, his left-handed swing is his carrying tool, but boy, does it carry him. He hit .236/.328/.478 with 27 home runs in 119 games. At some points early in the year, he touched the 1.000 OPS mark. He was battering the ball, but his struggles later in the season and the poor quality of the St. Louis outfield bring Mitchell back into the realm of possibility here. Currently lined up to use Tommy Edman in the outfield, they could do with an upgrade, while also allowing Tommy Edman and Masyn Winn to form a dynamic partnership up the middle of the infield. At second base, the Brewers could use the power bat, or even just a competent one. There's enough uncertainty surrounding future performance (on both ends) for this to be viable. Both of these trades bring in potential in the form of the bat, at the cost of some of the defensive excellence that allowed the Brewers to punch above their offensive weight in 2023. However, with either Gorman or Marté, the bat can more than make up the difference, while trading from a position of surplus. Either Mitchell or Frelick have the potential to go on and be stars for their respective teams. Still, the Brewers can't afford to hang onto their prospects needlessly, if their goal is to compete in 2024. View full article
  11. On Monday, Cody Schoenmann of Twins Daily wrote about a series of trade proposals involving the young, controllable Twins infielders and the young, controllable Brewers outfielders. All three were reasonable, plausibly beneficial deals for both sides. However, there are others who, even more distasteful as they may be as partners, might take a keen look at the plethora of athletic outfielders the Brewers have, and who have the prospects to make a big trade happen. Let's see which teams within the NL Central might have an eye on this young crop of stars: The Brewers have too many outfielders for the season ahead, with arbitration-eligible Tyrone Taylor accompanying Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins as players rumored to be in the shopfront window. With Taylor having three years' service time remaining with the Brewers, and the others even more, any trade should bring back equivalent high-ceiling or high-floor talent in a position of need. Let's take a look at who that could involve, inside their own division: Cincinnati Reds - Noelvi Marte for Sal Frelick Both of these players had introductions in the second half of 2023, albeit with completely different profiles at the plate. Marte has the type of raw power you dream of in a prospect, and he's still learning to tap into it more. However, he finds himself in the midst of a crowded infield, with Elly de la Cruz, Matt McLain, and newly-signed Jeimer Candelario manning the more athletic infield spots. Meanwhile, the Reds have many options in the outfield, but not many with the type of competence on both offense and defense that Frelick possesses. TJ Friedl was their best hitter among outfielders. Yet, he was 11th-percentile or lower in exit velocity, xwOBA, and hard-hit rate--all key predictors of sustainable success. He was also the only outfielder with a positive Defensive Runs Saved figure for the Reds, who ranked 28th in the league in DRS overall. Putting Frelick alongside him in the outfield, and setting the tone at the top of the order, could fit really nicely for the Reds. Marté, on the other hand, is currently playing third base, but is an adequate shortstop and above-average second baseman (although his arm may be under-utilized at the keystone). He's the type of bat the Brewers just could not get into their infield last season, hitting .316/.366/.456 in 114 at-bats for the Reds. The scouts suggest that he's still learning how to tap into his power better, but he's a good fit for the Brewers, in dire need of both some extra juice and a capable infielder at the plate. The only downside is that the Reds may consider him more use in acquiring a high-end pitching talent, something they're in even more desperate need for. The Brewers could try centering a Corbin Burnes trade around Marté, but the Reds might be loath to give up their dynamic infielder for a player they'd only have for one season. St Louis Cardinals - Garrett Mitchell for Nolan Gorman Even suggesting a trade with the Cardinals seems insane, but here goes. For all the talk of Pete Crow-Armstrong in the Windy City, Garrett Mitchell might be the best defensive center fielder in the game of baseball when healthy. With quality reads, electric speed and a strong arm, he's ubiquitous in the outfield, with the type of bat that can change a game when he runs into one. Mitchell has the wheels to steal 40-plus bases in a fully healthy campaign, something he was denied last year due to a freak injury on the basepaths. He's still fine-tuning his decisions at the plate, but his underlying talent is not in question. A full season of average production at the plate is likely a four-win player, given what else he brings to the table, and he has five years of club control remaining. Nolan Gorman has a more proven bat, with an electric start to 2023 petering out after some injuries in the summer. A subpar defender at second base with (perhaps) a more natural home at third, his left-handed swing is his carrying tool, but boy, does it carry him. He hit .236/.328/.478 with 27 home runs in 119 games. At some points early in the year, he touched the 1.000 OPS mark. He was battering the ball, but his struggles later in the season and the poor quality of the St. Louis outfield bring Mitchell back into the realm of possibility here. Currently lined up to use Tommy Edman in the outfield, they could do with an upgrade, while also allowing Tommy Edman and Masyn Winn to form a dynamic partnership up the middle of the infield. At second base, the Brewers could use the power bat, or even just a competent one. There's enough uncertainty surrounding future performance (on both ends) for this to be viable. Both of these trades bring in potential in the form of the bat, at the cost of some of the defensive excellence that allowed the Brewers to punch above their offensive weight in 2023. However, with either Gorman or Marté, the bat can more than make up the difference, while trading from a position of surplus. Either Mitchell or Frelick have the potential to go on and be stars for their respective teams. Still, the Brewers can't afford to hang onto their prospects needlessly, if their goal is to compete in 2024.
  12. They'd want to for sure, however a trade alone nets them a potential CY young costing around 15-16m, which makes him immensely valuable both in staying below luxury tax threshold and competing in a year in which ohtani can't pitch. They don't need him after this year, so I can really see a fit
  13. They have in some ways, but it's all been marginal fringe stuff excluding Chourio. With their assets trade wise, and the loss of Woodruff it's not unfair to suggest they need to move the needle more significantly one way or the other in terms of competing and commit to something
  14. With the Dodgers new signing also unable to head the rotation, does this make a potential rental or Corbin burnes an even better fit for their rotation? No point signing Ohtani without a rotation of Any substance (in terms of Miller being in his second year and Buehler returning from long term injury)
  15. @clancyphilewhat're the DSL pitchers stuff like? This seems a good point actually regarding the league
  16. The sheer number of extra people I could have talked about here says everything about the strength of the brewers system right now Boeves slower finish to the season kept him off my list, but I wouldn't be surprised if something caused it injury wise. Either way, just another exctiing name to pay attention to next season
  17. So Black was an interesting one, right on the cusp but also someone who's defensive ceiling may hold him back. I meant to include him as at least a footnote , so that's a mistake on my part. Blacks success has been amazing, and I think he'll translate well to the majors with a high floor for his bat due to his contact, speed and eye at the plate, but I'm a little uncertain about the power ceiling as of yet, just a slight question mark in my head. That bat also made him less of a high risk factor which potentially kept him more on the fringes for this particular article. I think he's a dead cert to find his feet in the majors, and if he can be average even at third base, he could be monumental for the Brewers moving forwards Regarding some of the latter names I would agree, but could argue that most DSL propsects have at least question marks as to their ceiling. Obviously age and coaching can change things rapidly, however Nadals age in the DSL and di Turis lack of power would have me question their ceilings more. I would agree there are a lot of names I could add to that honourable mentions portion however, and in particular the DSL pitchers are something I'm admittedly not so well versed on compared to yourself. In summation, Black just seemd to reliable almost to make this particular list, but as I said, big fan! Can't wait to see him in the big leagues soon
  18. The Milwaukee Brewers seemed to alter their approach this year in the draft, drafting high-ceiling players instead of their usual hit-over-power, solid-defense picks. On top of some high-caliber second-round picks in previous drafts, that shift in focus has provided a lot about which to be excited, both in the near and the distant future---just as Jackson Chourio (hopefully) hits his stride in the big leagues. Jacob Misiorowski - RHP An obvious place to start, Misiorowski has the type of arm that few outside Jacob DeGrom could compete with. He combines incredible spin rates with a 100-mph fastball, but his most devastating pitch is really his slider, a wipeout pitch at almost 90 mph. Generating great extension off the mound from his 6’7" frame and developing changeup and curveball toward the latter end of 2023 leave command as the only question mark attached to him. He showed it in fits and spurts--most notably a six-inning, 12-strikeout game to finish his season. With perhaps the best raw stuff in the minor leagues, he's a name on many people's lips. Josh Knoth - RHP At the other end of the development scale is 17-year-old Josh Knoth, who saw a big uptick on a fastball touching 97 mph at times. With incredible feel for spin that led to supreme success with both his four-seam fastball and a curveball which regularly tops 3,100 rpm, he left hitters floundering at the plate. This is a pitcher with exceptional command for his age, and without a high-effort delivery. He could storm through the Brewers' minor-league apparatus. He threw a 19-strikeout perfect game as an amateur, and although he's a little small, he's a superb athlete whom I, for one, can't wait to see get started next summer. Eric Bitonti - SS/3B At 6’4" and 215 pounds, Bitonti is a good defensive infielder, most likely to end up at third base due to his cannon of an arm. For a just-drafted high-school guy, he is a power prospect like few others. He has long levers but a short swing, and scouts feel he has the ability to make adjustments with professional tutelage to hit for both average and power. Considering his age and experience, he already has a good eye at the plate, but there is some swing-and-miss the Brewers will hope to iron out. Sprinkling plus defensive projections at the hot corner on top of it all makes him someone to watch. Along with Bitonti, Cooper Pratt deserves some discussion, but more on that next week. Brock Wilken - 3B A slightly surprising pick, Wilken had more walks than strikeouts, incredible power and a solid hit tool, coupled with surprisingly agile defense at third base. He demolished pitchers during his short stint in the minors, finishing with a .565 slugging percentage at Double A, while demonstrating a slight passiveness at the plate that he could tweak. Oddly, he doesn't have a lot of chase problems or swing-and-miss for a high-strikeout player, so he has the tools, and with some refining of his approach, we may see the power arriving in the major leagues toward the end of this season. Wilken set a record for home runs in Atlantic Coast Conference history with 71 during his time at Wake Forest, and he's showed a workability to develop and improve contact-wise during his time in college. Yophery Rodriguez - OF An international signee from the Dominican Republic, Rodríguez appeared to tire toward the end of the 2023 season. However, at just 17 years old, he showed the type of power and mature approach at the plate that scouts dream of. There's a belief that he could reach at least above-average thump as he grows into his frame, while projecting to stick in center field. He also has a hit tool that could carry him quickly through the minors in his Stateside debut next year. A Jackson Chourio comes along once in a blue moon, but there are people suggesting Rodríguez could follow his meteoric rise. An .842 OPS at his age (he was over 1.000 at some points in the season) is impressive, along with taking 41 walks to 40 strikeouts. Despite his poor finish to the year. Rodríguez has a huge ceiling, and only time will tell which affiliate he may finish at next season. There are a ton of other names to be excited about, in Juan Baez, Luis Lara, Carlos F Rodriguez, Robert Gasser, et al, and it shows just how stocked the Brewers farm system is. Any one of these players could reach a level of stardom that allows the team to build a dynasty alongside Chourio, regardless of how they approach the 2024 season. There's plenty of reason to be excited, Milwaukee fans, with talent churning through the system at all levels and ages.
  19. With Jackson Chourio on the verge of locking up his future with the Brewers, it's important to remember that one player alone won't win you a world series. Just ask Mike Trout. However, there are a number of potential superstars in the Brewers system who could help the franchise dominate in the next decade. Image courtesy of © Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK The Milwaukee Brewers seemed to alter their approach this year in the draft, drafting high-ceiling players instead of their usual hit-over-power, solid-defense picks. On top of some high-caliber second-round picks in previous drafts, that shift in focus has provided a lot about which to be excited, both in the near and the distant future---just as Jackson Chourio (hopefully) hits his stride in the big leagues. Jacob Misiorowski - RHP An obvious place to start, Misiorowski has the type of arm that few outside Jacob DeGrom could compete with. He combines incredible spin rates with a 100-mph fastball, but his most devastating pitch is really his slider, a wipeout pitch at almost 90 mph. Generating great extension off the mound from his 6’7" frame and developing changeup and curveball toward the latter end of 2023 leave command as the only question mark attached to him. He showed it in fits and spurts--most notably a six-inning, 12-strikeout game to finish his season. With perhaps the best raw stuff in the minor leagues, he's a name on many people's lips. Josh Knoth - RHP At the other end of the development scale is 17-year-old Josh Knoth, who saw a big uptick on a fastball touching 97 mph at times. With incredible feel for spin that led to supreme success with both his four-seam fastball and a curveball which regularly tops 3,100 rpm, he left hitters floundering at the plate. This is a pitcher with exceptional command for his age, and without a high-effort delivery. He could storm through the Brewers' minor-league apparatus. He threw a 19-strikeout perfect game as an amateur, and although he's a little small, he's a superb athlete whom I, for one, can't wait to see get started next summer. Eric Bitonti - SS/3B At 6’4" and 215 pounds, Bitonti is a good defensive infielder, most likely to end up at third base due to his cannon of an arm. For a just-drafted high-school guy, he is a power prospect like few others. He has long levers but a short swing, and scouts feel he has the ability to make adjustments with professional tutelage to hit for both average and power. Considering his age and experience, he already has a good eye at the plate, but there is some swing-and-miss the Brewers will hope to iron out. Sprinkling plus defensive projections at the hot corner on top of it all makes him someone to watch. Along with Bitonti, Cooper Pratt deserves some discussion, but more on that next week. Brock Wilken - 3B A slightly surprising pick, Wilken had more walks than strikeouts, incredible power and a solid hit tool, coupled with surprisingly agile defense at third base. He demolished pitchers during his short stint in the minors, finishing with a .565 slugging percentage at Double A, while demonstrating a slight passiveness at the plate that he could tweak. Oddly, he doesn't have a lot of chase problems or swing-and-miss for a high-strikeout player, so he has the tools, and with some refining of his approach, we may see the power arriving in the major leagues toward the end of this season. Wilken set a record for home runs in Atlantic Coast Conference history with 71 during his time at Wake Forest, and he's showed a workability to develop and improve contact-wise during his time in college. Yophery Rodriguez - OF An international signee from the Dominican Republic, Rodríguez appeared to tire toward the end of the 2023 season. However, at just 17 years old, he showed the type of power and mature approach at the plate that scouts dream of. There's a belief that he could reach at least above-average thump as he grows into his frame, while projecting to stick in center field. He also has a hit tool that could carry him quickly through the minors in his Stateside debut next year. A Jackson Chourio comes along once in a blue moon, but there are people suggesting Rodríguez could follow his meteoric rise. An .842 OPS at his age (he was over 1.000 at some points in the season) is impressive, along with taking 41 walks to 40 strikeouts. Despite his poor finish to the year. Rodríguez has a huge ceiling, and only time will tell which affiliate he may finish at next season. There are a ton of other names to be excited about, in Juan Baez, Luis Lara, Carlos F Rodriguez, Robert Gasser, et al, and it shows just how stocked the Brewers farm system is. Any one of these players could reach a level of stardom that allows the team to build a dynasty alongside Chourio, regardless of how they approach the 2024 season. There's plenty of reason to be excited, Milwaukee fans, with talent churning through the system at all levels and ages. View full article
  20. Hell yeah! So exciting, and with so much talent at the younger end ofhe system, both in arms and position players. The brewers have a real path to success right now
  21. It should be around that ballpark, but depends entirely on front office attitudes and Chourios too. To get a cheap contract requires risk on the teams part, and waiting a year could be critical either way. Two option years would probably work too, as long as Jackson is in his 20's as a FA I think he'll see a huge upside possibility for a long contract after this. The other thing is how his attitude plays out. There's probably hope that he'll be more grounded than Tati's or Franco but we really can't know for sure
  22. With only 21 at bats in Triple A, Jackson Chourio was far from a lock to reach MLB right away this spring. This deal could be a monumental trendsetter. Due to the risk of injury and uncertainty around performance against advanced pitching, the Brewers have a chance to secure a long-term contract that benefits both themselves and Chourio immensely. At just 19 years old, Chourio has the potential to be earning top dollar for several years more than most. He could be a free agent by the time he's 26 years old, with his prime years just beginning, something that will play a big role here. He has the potential of securing long-term financial security for himself and his family here, with the Brewers buying out his first couple years of free agency. He might still be able to sign a nine-figure deal by the end of his first contract. His ceiling could make him the best-paid player in the game at that point, but his concern will be what happens in the event of injury or if he doesn't translate well to the majors, as many have done before. His age gives him every chance to cover all his bases, but there are a few considerations. The Contract There are some large numbers being bandied about as things stand, but it's important to remember the arbitration process in these discussions. For his first three years, Chourio would earn a total of $2.25 million or so, barring bonuses, followed by three arbitration years wherein, at his very ceiling, he may earn around $60 million dollars. So, should he hypothetically be guaranteed to reach his best form and play non-stop over the next six seasons, even then, his value would barely exceed $60 million. Given the uncertainty surrounding injury, form and adaptation to the highest level of the sport, to guarantee an amount for those six years will be significantly less. Rosenthal cited the six-year, $50-million deal of Luis Robert, Jr., and the eight-year $100-million deal of Ronald Acuna, Jr. as good comparisons. However, given the way the market has moved on and the reports that the deal is expected be eight years in guaranteed length, a more apt comparison is somewhere between Acuña's and Corbin Carroll's deal with the Diamondbacks (eight years, $111 million). Given that Acuña earned his contract (considered remarkably team-friendly) after winning the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award, the deal probably won't reach nine figures, but it should be in the same ballpark. Estimating based on Chourio getting $50 million throughout his team-controlled first six years, adding two extra years at a salary of $20-25 million would leave all sides relatively happy, as well as giving Chourio a chance to be a free agent at 28. It may be a little high for the risks Milwaukee would be taking on, and it's possible that they offer something in the $80 million range over eight years instead--probably with a chunky team option for an extra year. All told, nine years in the $115-million range wouldn't be a surprise at all for a player with the raw power, hit tool, defensive coverage and speed that this potential phenom possesses. The Risks for Milwaukee As much as a large contract like this seems fair, it's important to recognize the gamble the Brewers are taking with Chourio in this case. He still chases more than you would like for a major-league player, although there is hope he can continue his development and access even more in-game power as he refines his approach. While his minor-league statistics have been extraordinary for his age, they haven’t been as impressive without that mental adjustment. That’s not to dampen the hype, but it would be remiss not to accept that Chourio isn’t quite putting up the type of numbers that some of the other recent über-prospects have managed in their brief stays in the minors. The habitual chases outside the zone, which have led to poorer contact than he's capable of at times, will likely lessen with experience, and compensated with the improved bat-to-ball skills he's already demonstrated and inevitable physical development, the sky truly is the limit here. There have been many prospects who failed to meet their expectations. Keston Hiura (particularly as a hit-over-power prospect) is a prime example of struggling to adjust his bat to major-league pitching. It’s more of a lottery than many can imagine. Yet, a frugal organization like the Brewers wouldn’t be talking about such a gamble unless they had supreme confidence in his ability. Their actions indicate perhaps injury is the only thing standing in Chourio’s way. The end price offered and/or accepted will likely have conditions and tweaks in it to make both sides happy, but make no mistake, it’s very possible the Brewers can get this deal done. Then, we can all hope to see the rise of a future Hall of Famer for an extended period of time, on a team-friendly deal that allows other aspects of their roster to be bolstered. Given the departures of Brandon Woodruff and (potentially) Corbin Burnes, the Brewers most recent stars, it makes a lot of sense. They need to take a gamble on Chourio. Only time will tell whether they win the bet. How big would you be willing to go for Chourio? Lay out your proposal or prediction in the comments.
  23. Ken Rosenthal dropped a bomb on the Brewers faithful on Tuesday, reporting that Jackson Chourio had engaged in extension talks with the Crew after just a handful of Triple-A at-bats. Extending their most hyped prospect of this century would be a bold move, but what the contract might look like is a topic of wide discourse. Here's where the sides could find common ground. Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK With only 21 at bats in Triple A, Jackson Chourio was far from a lock to reach MLB right away this spring. This deal could be a monumental trendsetter. Due to the risk of injury and uncertainty around performance against advanced pitching, the Brewers have a chance to secure a long-term contract that benefits both themselves and Chourio immensely. At just 19 years old, Chourio has the potential to be earning top dollar for several years more than most. He could be a free agent by the time he's 26 years old, with his prime years just beginning, something that will play a big role here. He has the potential of securing long-term financial security for himself and his family here, with the Brewers buying out his first couple years of free agency. He might still be able to sign a nine-figure deal by the end of his first contract. His ceiling could make him the best-paid player in the game at that point, but his concern will be what happens in the event of injury or if he doesn't translate well to the majors, as many have done before. His age gives him every chance to cover all his bases, but there are a few considerations. The Contract There are some large numbers being bandied about as things stand, but it's important to remember the arbitration process in these discussions. For his first three years, Chourio would earn a total of $2.25 million or so, barring bonuses, followed by three arbitration years wherein, at his very ceiling, he may earn around $60 million dollars. So, should he hypothetically be guaranteed to reach his best form and play non-stop over the next six seasons, even then, his value would barely exceed $60 million. Given the uncertainty surrounding injury, form and adaptation to the highest level of the sport, to guarantee an amount for those six years will be significantly less. Rosenthal cited the six-year, $50-million deal of Luis Robert, Jr., and the eight-year $100-million deal of Ronald Acuna, Jr. as good comparisons. However, given the way the market has moved on and the reports that the deal is expected be eight years in guaranteed length, a more apt comparison is somewhere between Acuña's and Corbin Carroll's deal with the Diamondbacks (eight years, $111 million). Given that Acuña earned his contract (considered remarkably team-friendly) after winning the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award, the deal probably won't reach nine figures, but it should be in the same ballpark. Estimating based on Chourio getting $50 million throughout his team-controlled first six years, adding two extra years at a salary of $20-25 million would leave all sides relatively happy, as well as giving Chourio a chance to be a free agent at 28. It may be a little high for the risks Milwaukee would be taking on, and it's possible that they offer something in the $80 million range over eight years instead--probably with a chunky team option for an extra year. All told, nine years in the $115-million range wouldn't be a surprise at all for a player with the raw power, hit tool, defensive coverage and speed that this potential phenom possesses. The Risks for Milwaukee As much as a large contract like this seems fair, it's important to recognize the gamble the Brewers are taking with Chourio in this case. He still chases more than you would like for a major-league player, although there is hope he can continue his development and access even more in-game power as he refines his approach. While his minor-league statistics have been extraordinary for his age, they haven’t been as impressive without that mental adjustment. That’s not to dampen the hype, but it would be remiss not to accept that Chourio isn’t quite putting up the type of numbers that some of the other recent über-prospects have managed in their brief stays in the minors. The habitual chases outside the zone, which have led to poorer contact than he's capable of at times, will likely lessen with experience, and compensated with the improved bat-to-ball skills he's already demonstrated and inevitable physical development, the sky truly is the limit here. There have been many prospects who failed to meet their expectations. Keston Hiura (particularly as a hit-over-power prospect) is a prime example of struggling to adjust his bat to major-league pitching. It’s more of a lottery than many can imagine. Yet, a frugal organization like the Brewers wouldn’t be talking about such a gamble unless they had supreme confidence in his ability. Their actions indicate perhaps injury is the only thing standing in Chourio’s way. The end price offered and/or accepted will likely have conditions and tweaks in it to make both sides happy, but make no mistake, it’s very possible the Brewers can get this deal done. Then, we can all hope to see the rise of a future Hall of Famer for an extended period of time, on a team-friendly deal that allows other aspects of their roster to be bolstered. Given the departures of Brandon Woodruff and (potentially) Corbin Burnes, the Brewers most recent stars, it makes a lot of sense. They need to take a gamble on Chourio. Only time will tell whether they win the bet. How big would you be willing to go for Chourio? Lay out your proposal or prediction in the comments. View full article
  24. Cracking day for mejias! If I'm not mistaken, he's down to a 1.10 ERA
  25. Great blog post my friend! All of these players have different ceilings, I'm still hot on Wiemer finding some really effective performance towards the end of the 2024 season, but all have workons. Look at Henderson as a good example however, won rookie of the year after a horrid opening few months this season where he wasn't even close to the Mendoza line in May
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