Jake McKibbin

It’s no secret that William Contreras loves calling fastballs, and despite praise from the Brewers staff, there’s a suspicion that it’s not bringing the desired results. Just how much is it hurting the Brewers' pitching staff? Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports It’s no secret that William Contreras loves calling fastballs, and despite praise from the Brewers staff, there’s a suspicion that it’s not bringing the desired results. Just how much is it hurting the Brewers' pitching staff? William Contreras calls fastball variations more regularly than any other catcher in baseball outside of Yasmani Grandal. And at least Grandal has the excuse of Jared Jones' and Paul Skenes' elite fastballs to justify it. Contreras has some justification in that pitchers like Colin Rea, Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale have multiple fastball variations in their arsenal but even so, for a team with a dearth of elite fastballs (outside of ace Freddy Peralta), this is an unusual trend. Perhaps the best way to isolate whether this is a team-wide instruction or just Contreras himself is to compare him to Gary Sanchez. Where Contreras calls these so-called hard pitches 64.5% of the time, Sanchez is at a more manageable 60.4%, which would still place him sixth on the list but also closer in percentage points to the bottom half of the list than to Contreras in second place. However, fastball calling on its own isn’t necessarily the issue so much as how Contreras doubles up on the fastball. He ranks in the top eight in the league for following one fastball variation in all counts: pitcher’s and pitcher’s counts with two strikes. Out of 71 qualified catchers, here’s where the two rank in doubling up on hard pitches: William Contreras Gary Sanchez All Counts 63.6% (8th) 59.1% (25th) All Pitchers Counts 56.9% (5th) 51.8% (25th) Pitcher’s Counts with 2 Strikes 58.3% (5th) 54.0% (26th) Contreras doesn’t lead the league in any of these categories. Still, it is noticeable how often he’s doubling up on the fastball more than his counterpart behind the dish. With both in the top 30 of the 71 qualified catchers, it seems an organizational approach to be more fastball-heavy. However, those four percentage points make a big difference in effectiveness, particularly (contrary to my expectations) in non-two-strike counts. The 2024 Milwaukee Brewers have faced over 2,500 batters this season, giving us a large sample size for the following data. When following a four-seam fastball, a sinker, or a cutter, there have been definitively different results for each category of pitch thereafter: As you can see, following one fastball variation with another has been hit quite hard and consistently throughout the year compared to using different pitch types in those counts. The changeups and splitters have done remarkably well in creating poor-quality contact while breaking pitches have been hard-hit almost 20% less often. It’s important to have variety in how you pitch in a multitude of counts, and as such, doubling down on pitches is essential, but for these instances to result in 64.9% of pitches ending plate appearances is quite startling. Part of the success of the changeup comes with how often the Brewers keep it out of the rulebook strike zone at just a 29% clip following a fastball variant, but the breaking pitches are kept in the zone more often while generating more swing and machine. So, how does this play out in two-strike counts? Interestingly, it plays out quite well. The breaking pitches are getting a little more swing and miss while fewer called strikes, but overall, both strikeout rates are quite comparable in two-strike counts. The results of balls in play are slightly misleading, and the xFIP of the breaking pitches is a good indicator of their overall success. However, it is a positive note and may be one reason the Brewers are leaning so heavily into doubling up on fastballs. It’s one reason the Brewers have leaned into players with three different fastball variants. They intend to miss barrels with late movement, keep hitters on their toes, and ultimately get outs using their defense while keeping pitch counts relatively under control. Frankie Montas is a prime example, and the Brewers, as predicted by Matt Trueblood, have leaned heavier on the fastball variants to achieve great success. Increasing the usage of the cutter and sinker from Montas while pushing aside the pitch he was previously best known for, his splitter seems contrary to success; however, his cutter, sinker, and four seams have quite different movement profiles that allow him to miss a lot more bats. The four-seam, in particular, has an elite 34.6% whiff rate with the Brewers despite a fairly average movement profile, and it’s all because of how the Brewers mix within their fastball arsenals rather than mix between pitch groupings. Despite this, I can still see a strong argument for Contreras going too far with these fastball calls, particularly given the staff's lack of fastball excellence, especially with pitchers who have just one type of fastball. The most noticeable change has been how Bryan Hudson has been called over his last three starts. As Lucas notes, that’s an absurdly different strategy for a pitcher whose primary out pitch is an incredible sweeper. To call one in 40 pitches of action is extreme, and it may be down to Hudson feeling uncomfortable with the pitch in warming up; however, even then, you would expect more than a solitary offering even to keep the hitter honest. It does seem to be a specific call by the Brewers to hone in on heavy fastball usage, and for some, that’s brought about some unmitigated success this season. However, there is a worry that they’re teetering on the edge of the brilliance and insanity line with Contreras behind the plate on some nights. It’s becoming a concern, and they may need to address it before the postseason begins. View full article

After years of having to slide in beneath bloated win totals for teams from the NL East and West, the Brewers are just one game back from leading the National League. Given the makeup of their roster and their brand of baseball, that race could be more pivotal than ever. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports After years of having to slide in beneath bloated win totals for teams from the NL East and West, the Brewers are just one game back from leading the National League. Given the makeup of their roster and their brand of baseball, that race could be more pivotal than ever. Since the changes to the playoff format in 2022 that created a bye to the Division Series for each league's top two division winners, a handful of early-round upsets have happened. It's led some to wonder whether that break between the regular season and the start of a playoff run is beneficial or not. Talk of a drop in intensity, the form factor and more have been bandied about, but if you ask any MLB front office, they’d snap your hand off at the opportunity to reach a World Series by playing only two series and not three. This may be even more important for the 2024 Brewers, though, due to their likely formula for winning games in the postseason and how they’ve won in the regular season. How Will It Affect The Brewers' Postseason Strategy? The way the playoffs are structured (with days off between more games) should play right into the Brewers' hands, with their potentially monstrous bullpen and mix of starters. Given the struggles of every Brewers starter who goes through the order a third time, it seems quite likely there will be a lot of four and five inning starts once the team reaches October, complemented by the use of that elite bullpen. With multi-inning arms like DL Hall and Aaron Civale; the lockdown late-inning mix of Trevor Megill, Devin Williams, Bryan Hudson, and Joel Payamps; and potentially even Craig Yoho and Jacob Misiorowski thrown into the mix, the strategy seems ideal. The problem is that the Brewers have thrown more innings in relief than any other team but the San Francisco Giants. A lot of contributors to their early-season success have had stints on the IL of late (including Hudson and Megill, which are seemingly more for workload management than anything else), and having those days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs will allow that bullpen to be completely refreshed heading into the postseason. We saw early in the season how effective Hudson was, before being worn down a little by usage. The same could be said of Hoby Milner, who was a little snake-bitten earlier in the year but whose real level of performance has sagged in the second half, perhaps as a result of throwing so many innings. Having that selection of arms fresh is a mighty combination, compared to what they look like when worn down. There can also be playoff matchup advantages, but it all hinges on that first game. Theoretically, if a team were involved in a three-game Wild Card Series win, they would have used their first three starters on consecutive days. Even in a two-game series, they’ll be using their third-most effective starter against the Brewers' number one, should the Crew earn a bye. Since Milwaukee hasn’t had a bona fide ace this season, that could prove crucial in avoiding the likes of Zac Gallen, Tyler Glasnow or Chris Sale until later in the series. Starting pitching matchups aren't determinative, especially in the postseason, but getting an edge from schedule alignment has real value to the Brewers, with their flat rotation. The inconsistency of Freddy Peralta across the year is a concern, but there remains time for him to find the best version of himself in time for the playoffs, as he did during the second half of last season. His ERA is also mostly down to his results going the third time through the order this season, with a 2.94 ERA his first two times through and a 7.90 ERA on his third time facing a lineup. His strikeout rate drops with each time through the order, but that can definitely be negated by playoff matchup machinations. With the way the playoff schedule works, pairing Peralta for the first 18 hitters with Hall for the next nine to 12 should spell some different looks for hitters to get through six to seven innings, allowing the arsenal of closers to shut the door from there. It's the kind of setup that should bring a lot of confidence into a matchup with the third- or fourth-choice starter of their opponents and give the Brewers an initial edge, especially with how adept the Brewers have been at pressuring some of the elite arms in baseball this year (see Chris Sale). Is The Additional Rest A Help Or A Hindrance? Perhaps most obvious in the workload equation is the burden placed on some of the Brewers' key offensive contributors, who react to a day off as if it were a dose of smallpox. Willy Adames has played every single game at shortstop this season, while William Contreras has featured in 120 of the 124 games played so far this year, with almost 80% of those being as a catcher. Both have been incredibly productive in August, but the last thing this Brewers team can afford is for both of them to tail off due to the intense workload of the season just when the stakes get raised. There’s also the style of baseball the Brewers play, which can take a greater toll than most. They grind and scrap mentally for every possible inch, playing a speed and discipline game which is highly conducive to playoff baseball. However, it also wears you down far faster than a more relaxed style. The intensity with which Adames, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Colin Rea and others approach baseball is tough to maintain over a concerted period, and is a big reason why the Brewers fell into a slump leading into the All-Star break. They cannot afford for the same phenomenon to hit them at the end of a long season, going straight into the playoffs, and may have to decide between giving players appropriate rest in the final few weeks or chasing hard for that playoff bye. Their division lead should make September relatively stress-free, but the race for the top two seeds could go down to the wire. Skipping straight to the NLCS has a lot of advantages: playing a more worn-down team (albeit one experiencing high levels of momentum and adrenaline); the initial matchup advantage to get off to a good start in the series; and the additional home game involved. Financially, Mark Attanasio would be very happy with the additional revenue, and the rest will be absolutely invaluable to a team who plays the most gritty and intense style of baseball possible in the modern era. Their overworked bullpen will thank them. Their offensive stalwarts will thank them. This is the best chance to see the best form of Brewers baseball in the postseason. What do you think of the Brewers pursuit of a bye? Is it a notable advantage? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

He’s been absolutely electric since the beginning of June. Yet, Jackson Chourio may be capable of even more. With just one small adjustment still to come, can he become a truly complete hitter before the playoffs? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports He’s been absolutely electric since the beginning of June. Yet, Jackson Chourio may be capable of even more. With just one small adjustment still to come, can he become a truly complete hitter before the playoffs? Jackson Chourio has shown an adaptability beyond his years throughout each step of his professional journey. In one year, he took himself from being an 18-year-old at Low A and High A with a 25.5% strikeout rate, to a player striking out just 17% of the time as a 19-year-old in Double A. Two of his last three months at the level saw a strikeout rate below 11%. That’s just one example of how quickly he learns, and we’ve seen exactly that in the majors this season. To watch Chourio at the start of the year compared to now is chalk and cheese in terms of confidence, pitch recognition and quality of contact, all against the best pitching in the world, at just 20 years old. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, and replaced the production the Brewers were getting from Christian Yelich. That being said, there is one area that he hasn’t quite mastered, although it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him rectify it in the next six weeks. Since Jun. 1, pitchers have had quite a clear plan of attack for Chourio, spamming the outer third of the plate. When they miss, he’s been relatively adept at punishing them, and he has been quite patient at laying off those outer-third pitches early in the count. He’s aware of the weakness and taking steps to mitigate it, but that can only do so much. Above are the locations of all of Chourio’s exit velocities of 104+ mph. He doesn’t have a truly elite 90th-percentile exit velocity, but he’s been producing a lot more of this type of contact since Jun. 1. Yet, not a single one all year has come on the outer third of the plate. Interestingly, he's also swung a lot more in the upper third of the zone than the lower third, but that’s a smaller issue. The good news is that he’s already started adjusting--not so much in terms of damage, but in how he’s elevating the ball. The latter has improved in each month. Chourio had a 59.2% ground ball rate on outer third pitches through the end of June, but as we’ve already seen, he adapts incredibly quickly. In August, the ground-ball rate has dropped to 46.2%, and it’s largely because he’s beginning to get a hold of those outer-third sliders. He’s picking them up a lot earlier out of the hand and has been able to keep his weight back on them longer, making better contact as a result. Anyone who watched Chourio in the minors knows he has prodigious power to the opposite field, but a lot of that comes on inside-outing fastballs to that area. If he can translate that to the slider on the outer third, then there may not be a weakness to his game. The reason I think this may be very doable is that he perhaps has the best quality of contact in the majors--to the point that it’s almost detrimental. The reason I say that is that Chourio, when he makes contact, almost invariably puts the ball in play. Since Jun. 1, he has the second-lowest foul-ball rate of any player in MLB, whether he’s swinging inside or outside the strike zone. He could still do with chasing less often, and that will come with the pitch recognition advances happening naturally from facing big-league pitchers, but his ability to put the ball in play when he swings is incredible, and a big reason why his walk rate might never jump off the page. It’s also a reason why he may compete for a batting title quite regularly, unless pitchers attempt to manage their way around him in the lineup more often. Either way, his contact skills are so good that if he can pick the pitch up quickly, he’ll have minimal issues squaring the ball up. It seems like that may be happening before our eyes. Until then, the more he can force pitchers onto the inner half of the zone, the more damage we’ll see down the home stretch. What do you think of Jackson Chourio’s recent performances? Have you noticed the heavy targeting of the outer third of the strike zone? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. View full article

He expects to come back today or Thursday from the injury all being well

This is incredibly contrasting to the name "blighty". I'd almost be disappointed if I didn't completely agree

Jacob Misiorowski and Craig Yoho were both promoted to Triple-A recently, and with both currently in bullpen roles, it may be a fight between them for that extra pitching roster spot in September. Who should get the call? Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK, Biloxi Shuckers Jacob Misiorowski and Craig Yoho were both promoted to Triple-A recently, and with both currently in bullpen roles, it may be a fight between them for that extra pitching roster spot in September. Who should get the call? Craig Yoho was a $10,000 signing in the 2023 Draft who was completely unheralded before this season. Jacob Misiorowski has been about as high on helium as they come. Misiorowski dominates behind a remarkable fastball, while Yoho uses good command and boomerang-like movement to get a similar level of swing-and-miss. They are almost polar opposites in terms of their profiles, but they’re both genuine difference-makers. Adding either to the bullpen would be a bonus in September, but with limited 40-man roster spots available and only one expanded roster spot for a pitcher, there’s a very real possibility only one of them gets the call. How Have They Each Performed Early On At Triple-A Nashville? Let’s start with Misiorowski. He had an average perceived velocity of 100 mph on the fastball in his most recent appearance, an incredible number. His gigantic extension from that 6-foot-6 frame (combined with wicked arm speed) means the fastball is deadly, or at least it should be. It has shown a slightly inconsistent shape in terms of the ride he’s generating, and has just a 5.6% swinging strike rate. He has limited hard contact, with an average exit velocity of just 67 mph, but where Triple-A hitters make poor contact, a big-league hitter will often do damage, so that’s a prospective concern. The ABS system has challenged his control a bit and narrowed the strike zone. The word is out there about how to approach him. Hitters are swinging just 37% of the time on his heater, in part due to the uncomfortable nature of the at-bat and its velocity, but also in an attempt to wait him out. The good news is that he adapted in his last appearance, pouring it into the zone for called strikes and using the curveball, which has been electric, to put them away. His breaking pitch has a 33.3% swinging strike rate, and has been devastating when he’s commanded it. There have been a number of uncompetitive offerings which have inflated his pitch counts, but it should improve as he adjusts to the level. Meanwhile, Craig Yoho has continued to make hitters look completely and utterly overmatched with basically every pitch in his arsenal. He’s thrown ten sliders, seven for strikes, with three swings and no one even making contact yet. The sinker has been used to right-handed batters a lot, and he pummels the strike zone with it. Vicious arm-side movement has him backdooring the pitch for called strikes and presents an alternative, velocity-wise, to the changeup. Speaking of, that changeup has been about as filthy as they come. I could give you the statistical numbers, or just show you some of the swings he’s been generating: The sheer two plane movement could make it instantly one of the nastiest pitches in baseball, and you can see why he has a 0.67 FIP on the year across the upper levels of the minors. In terms of how he generates the swing-and-miss without that high-end velocity and combined with a 66% ground ball rate this season, he’s essentially an ideal reliever--a “swing-and-miss merchant” who avoids the long ball. He has three pitches that move in dizzying ways, in a variety of directions and speeds that confounds hitters. No one in the minors has yet found an answer. For both pitchers, their Triple-A sample is small, but there are definitely things we can glean from them. Misiorowski has lost some of the fastball IVB he had with the ball in Double-A, but he’s avoiding hard contact on it and getting some elite swing-and-miss on his breaker. Yoho is, well, the same Craig Yoho we’ve seen at every other level of the minor leagues. We shouldn't make too many early judgments based on this small dataset. However, it should play a part in the decision made at the end of it all. What Type Of Reliever Do The Brewers Need? This is a large part of the decision. Coming out of the bullpen, Misiorowski has been working as a multi-inning reliever, whereas Yoho has been kept as a single-inning arm. When you look at how the Brewers roster is currently constructed, and when you take into account Pat Murphy’s quotes about DL Hall after Sunday’s game: They have a six-man rotation right now, to deal with a 14-day stretch without an off day, but Hall is likely to move into a multi-inning role himself (alongside Bryse Wilson and Joe Ross) at some point. That’s three multi-inning men, and whether the Brewers want to add a fourth to that mix would be questionable, barring injury or poor form from any of the three. That’s without taking into account how Bryan Hudson has been deployed this year as a multi-inning arm. With a five-man rotation, you would have nine arms available out of the bullpen in September. With the injured list expected to be considerably shorter by that point with the returns of Hudson and Trevor Megill, that would leave four multi-inning relief options and five single-inning arms, including Megill, Devin Williams, and Joel Payamps. It seems much, much easier for the Brewers to find space for a single-inning relief role than yet another multi-inning, stretched-out arm. That would appear to give Yoho the leg up in some respects. Misiorowski could be dialed down to that role, as well, and definitely has the stuff to thrive in it, but it’s not how the Brewers seem to be deploying them as it currently stands. What About Long-Term Plans? As referenced earlier, the Brewers have said about the pitch count for Jacob Misiorowski. He was shut down last year after a promotion to Double-A, with arm fatigue (never a great sign). They’ve been careful again with his ramp-up this season. They are comfortable with him getting those innings at either Triple-A or in the Show, but if they’re serious about being cautious on the workload, then having Yoho around may allow them to retain that caution while still adding an elite bullpen arm for the playoff push. The other thing is that, eventually, the Brewers still seem keen on Misiorowski as a starter. He’s not quite gotten a hold of his command of his fastball or his third pitch to the point that you’d feel comfortable with him starting in the majors next year. He still has development and growth to go before he’s ready for that stage, and (unfortunate as it is that it’s a consideration) starting his service-time clock when you know he likely won’t be ready to start games until at least halfway through next season would be wasting a year of control. That’s something that can be justified if he was the sole big, internal upgrade possibility for September, but Yoho’s presence does negate that somewhat. While Misiorowski has some development ahead of him, Yoho is ready to get big-league outs in high-leverage spots right now and over the next few years. He has far less to learn from the minor leagues, and as such, he should be the preferred option for the promotion. One more point of observation is the adjustment factor at each stage of promotion. Yoho has been promoted from High-A Wisconsin to Triple-A, and his numbers in terms of swing-and-miss, strike rate, and so on haven't changed at all at each step: Contrast that to Misiorowski, who at every step has required an adjustment period due to a mandate for better command. Yoho seems like a safer candidate. The Brewers, if they bring them up in September, will have one month before the playoffs where they have to perform down the stretch and into October. It's a not a time where they can afford to let someone adjust to the level over a longer period, and so far in their minor-league careers, Yoho has demonstrated himself to be significantly better in this regard. So What Direction Should They Go? The Brewers still may attempt to include both on their September roster, but with an already packed bullpen that should be getting natural reinforcements from injury returnees, there is no obligation for them to do so. The smart path long-term may be to keep Misiorowski in Nashville, adjusting to that caliber of hitter and working out how he can fill up that zone, but it’s a difficult decision; he may be an elite arm coming from the bullpen in the playoffs. It’s hard to argue that Misiorowski wouldn’t be an upgrade on a Hoby Milner or Elvis Peguero, but with an in-form Payamps alongside a rejuvenated Hudson, Megill, Williams, Enoli Paredes and Jared Koenig, who have all been excellent this year, that choice becomes a little bit more difficult. At this point, Yoho makes the most sense for the Brewers, both in the short term and in the long term, given how ready he looks for the major-league level and how little development he has left combined with the need for a shorter-stint reliever and Misiorowski's path to the big leagues as a starter. What do you think of the Brewers' potential dilemma for the expanded rosters? Can you see them preferring one of Yoho or Misiorowski? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

The way you should look at it is that between two elite defenders (and yes both are elite) the better arm and transfer should take shortstop. Ortiz has brilliant range but also has such a rapid transfer and a better throwing arm and you need that far more on the left side of the infield. Turang's arm isn't strong and that'll likely be what holds him back from the position as anything more than a stopgap. There's no reason to waste the better arm at second base where it's far less useful due to the proximity to first base

Yeah immense talent for sure. The one thing that could spark a big outbreak is if he can elevate more consistently as that raw power is monstrous for a 17 year old and early reports are the defense is definitely capable of staying on the left hand side of the infield. That's all based off stuff I've read/heard so don't shoot the messenger but yeah a real high helium prospect.

William Contreras slumped hard at the plate for almost two months, but he’s quietly excelled since the All-Star break. With pitch selectivity as a crutch, here’s how Contreras has become a threat in the batter’s box again. Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports William Contreras slumped hard at the plate for almost two months, but he’s quietly excelled since the All-Star break. With pitch selectivity as a crutch, here’s how Contreras has become a threat in the batter’s box again. We can almost break William Contreras' season down into three segments, with total and utter dominance in the first six weeks, followed by a heavy slump over the next two months. Still, he’s been under the radar effectively since the All-Star break, and it may be coming at just the right time. With Christian Yelich out for the foreseeable future, the Milwaukee Brewers were in dire need of some offensive production from their more experienced contributors. William Contreras has done just that. There’s a genuine possibility that Contreras has been struggling with injuries during the middle part of the season, with whispers about a damaged finger coinciding with an incredible stretch of 64 straight games to start the season, most of which involved catching behind the plate, taking its toll on him. He was wearing a splint on his finger during the All-Star game festivities, and combined with the workload; it wasn’t entirely surprising to see him slump; however, it was a surprise to see the significance of that slump. He was swinging more often, going to the opposite field with less regularity, and not being selective enough with the pitches he was targeting. As a result, he hit a lot of weak ground balls and lost almost all the power production he showed in the first six weeks. Still, fascinatingly, he may be performing better “under the hood” now than in that initial hot stretch. William Contreras has always been able to hit the ball hard. And often. The drawback for him is similar to that of Christian Yelich in that he quite regularly uses that prime exit velocity to dig deep holes in the infield dirt and hit a ton of ground balls. Now, average launch angle isn’t an entirely reliable statistic because it could equate a pop-up and a negative launch angle as perfect on average. Contreras’ sweet spot rate is lower now than in that early part of the season. However, note the spread of positive average launch angles, and you can see he’s lifting the ball considerably better across the strike zone and in particular in the middle third: Combined with the increased exit velocities we’ve seen from Contreras since the All-Star break, it’s tough not to notice how much better he’s looked. With just a few innings at the All-Star game, he effectively got off his feet for four out of the five days the Brewers had off and has been getting rested considerably more since the break with the Brewers using Gary Sanchez and Eric Haase more regularly to take him out of the lineup. The mental break, more than the physical one, seems big as much of the improvement comes down to swing decisions, especially in two-strike counts. Everybody in the league knows Contreras is a ground ball machine, and that’s especially true if you locate in the bottom third of the strike zone. If and when he puts it in the air, he’ll access serious damage, but as you can see, below that bottom of the zone is a fantastic way to mitigate any of that power: A ground ball rate of over 60% is far, far too easy for pitchers to get out of jail with, and during his rough stretch, Contreras was swinging prodigiously in the bottom third and giving up cheap outs. Not so since the All-Star break: As you can see, there’s almost no red at all in that bottom third over the last month, and it’s a big reason why he’s not giving up those cheap outs anymore. In terms of results, in hitter’s counts, he’s slugging .818 since the All-Star break compared to a measly .439 in the two months prior. Some of that is down to poor batted-ball fortunes, but targeting the right pitches to swing has definitely been a factor in his recent success. Having a healthy, rested, and productive William Contreras will be vital for the remainder of the Brewers season, as much as he wants to be a part of each and every game. Quality rather than quantity has to be the aim for the all-star, especially with the Brewers tightening their grip on a playoff berth in recent days. It would seem that there’s a direct correlation between his productivity and the time off, and it’s shining through at the moment. What do you think of Contreras over the last month? Do you think he can sustain it through September and possibly October? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Mike Boeve has had two ridiculously powerful stretches of baseball interspersed with one where he had a few breaks and eventually went on the IL. I have zero evidence to prove this, but I am wondering if the injury was bothering him for a while before he went on the IL. This is an insane level of performance since coming off it

So if I read this correctly Jack, and I don't see how I could be accused of hyperbole with this, what you're saying is that we can expect a similar output against the lacklustre fastball/slider combo of Chris Sale having also faced him down last week?

Elder has been up and down this year, either dominant or absolutely horrific. One poor start in his last 5 but a little BABIP luck and hopefully a good opportunity to score some runs

I'd argue as above Turang could be a little more selective in these counts, but for most of the rest of the lineup I completely agree. For Turang I'd like to see him sit more on a specific pitch, especially an in zone FB but we'll see. Certainly would like him to lay off a changeup in those counts Very small sample size but I do think they looked a little more aggressive against the Nats at the weekend but didn't quite get the batted ball luck to go with it

From a bona fide All-Star in the first eight weeks to a .607 OPS since May 26, it appears Brice Turang has regressed significantly back toward his 2023 performance. Many expected some of that, but it wasn’t supposed to be this steep. What has gone wrong? And more importantly, can it be fixed? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports From a bona fide All-Star in the first eight weeks to a .607 OPS since May 26, it appears Brice Turang has regressed significantly back toward his 2023 performance. Many expected some of that, but it wasn’t supposed to be this steep. What has gone wrong? And more importantly, can it be fixed? His surface numbers have become really concerning over the last two months, and while part of this is an abnormally low BABIP for someone of Brice Turang's speed, there is some serious concern at this point. He’s not hitting the ball quite as solidly as he did earlier on, with a lower average exit velocity on non-bunt attempts, but it’s not to the extent you’d expect to see from a .600 OPS player. He's maintained reasonable whiff rates and isn't striking out at a calamitous clip. So, what's causing the slump? Well, he is striking out almost 50% more, with that rate rising from 13.8% in the first eight or so weeks to a 19.8% mark from May 26 onward. He's also chasing outside the zone 33% more often than he was in that first eight weeks. Is this a change in his approach at the plate, or is it a byproduct of pitchers challenging him in different ways? (Note: All of the below statistics have excluded bunt attempts.) What Are Pitchers Doing Differently? Well as you can see above, the pitch mix he’s facing hasn’t been all that dissimilar. There have been a few fewer sinkers and a few more cutters, but on the whole, what he’s facing from day to day is the same as ever. However, there’s something distinct to remember about Turang earlier in the season. He wasn’t doing a lot of damage early in the count. Instead, his strength came in his ability to foul off pitches until he got something he wanted to drive, whether that be a fastball he slipped to the opposite side of the field or a slider in the zone. He had a lot of success with this approach. Due to the lack of damage earlier in the at-bat and a heavy foul ball rate while working the pitch count, it may be more relevant to see how pitchers attacked him when they got ahead: Grouping the pitch types together (sliders, sweepers, curveballs as breaking; changeups and splitters as “soft”) gives a fairly clear indication that pitchers have found a weakness in Turang’s game. While he did so well earlier in the season going to the opposite field on fastballs (especially on four-seamers, which he hit to left field over 60% of the time) and staying up the middle or pulling breaking pitches, the one constant has been a struggle with off-speed pitches. They were the only pitch category he had a sub-.200 batting average against in the early part of the season, and those struggles came with just a 14% hard-hit rate, so it’s no surprise to see pitchers target him more often in that way and find success. I think Turang may have an issue picking up changeups and splitters out of the hand until it’s far too late, treating them like the fastballs he’s trying to take opposite field and being caught way out in front. I say that because you would expect that, with his approach, he’d be pulling breaking balls more often than “soft” pitching options, but that hasn’t been the case--especially in the last two-plus months. Turang has been rolling over changeups and splitters at a discouraging rate, averaging just 76.6 MPH (after excluding bunts) in terms of exit velocity on changeups since May 26. He’s pulling them over 62% of the time. Pulling the ball is fine for a lot of hitters, but the problem for Turang is that he’s pairing a high ground-ball rate with nowhere near enough exit velocity to get through the gaps, because he’s not actually trying to pull the ball. It’s just weakly rolled-over stuff born of misdiagnosing soft stuff as fastballs, and it’s causing him some serious issues, highlighted well by the double play groundout on Kyle Finnegan’s splitter to finish Sunday’s game against the Nationals. Has His Approach Changed? In some ways, yes, but it takes a little bit of digging. Earlier in the year, Turang was elite in terms of how he hit the fastball. He had almost a 90% contact rate on heaters through May 25, and was one of the best in the league against 97+-mph fastballs. He was patient, waiting for his pitch and then looking to get on base by taking it the opposite way when pitchers left the four-seam fastball up in the zone. Since that date, however, his contact rate has dropped to 85%--still a good rate, but it's not just about the quantity of contact. It's also about the quality. The reason for this is his aggressiveness when he gets ahead in the count. Whereas in the first eight weeks he chased fastballs just 9.5% of the time in hitter’s counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0,3-1), since that date, he’s chased outside the zone at an alarming 26.5% rate, which has resulted in some really poor contact and very cheap outs. Instead of staying patient and using the count leverage to demand a better ball to hit, he’s letting pitchers back into the count with their fastball too easily, or making substandard contact when he does swing. The above is taking into account his chase rates against all pitches when in hitter’s counts, but the vast majority of these are fastballs above the strike zone. His discipline hasn’t been what it was earlier in the season, despite the still-strong walk rate, and it seems to be he’s lost a little sight of who he is as a hitter. He can cause havoc just by getting on the basepaths, and he can rope balls into the gaps and leg out extra-base hits, so he will have some power production in that sense. That, though, is not his role in this lineup. After some home runs and big moments in May and June, it’s quite possible Turang has lost the cold focus that underpinned his early success, when he was one of the best in the league at finding his way on base. His struggles of late have impacted his offensive production, not just in terms of getting on base, but also in his ability to affect the game with his speed on base. The changeup problems are of definite concern, and if he can’t pick it out of the hand, there’s only so far he can go in terms of his ceiling. He’s made adjustments fairly well throughout most of his minor-league career, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t find a way to adapt to its usage in those two-strike counts. Either way, a little more patience will go a long way toward helping him provide the offensive production the Brewers desperately need coming down the home stretch, in their intense August schedule. He just has to find a cue to let him know when the change is coming. What do you think of Brice Turang's recent struggles? Is it an easy fix? Do you see something else in his plate appearances? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

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Even if the Brewers offered him overslot on draft day and he said no, I'm fairly certain with their program and an offer like that that they were confident he'd sign on. I have to say I'm actually quite amazed that he hasn't, and I think 99% of people in his shoes on that day would have done so. He'll have his reasons for sure, and the Brewers should have done more work on why he was rejecting the offer but I have to say I'm still kind of astounded it wasn't enough

Remember the Brewers have signed who they want to by now, it just hasn't been publicised yet

I had a look at malamazians swing earlier, so so smooth But yeah adding even Wech to that if they don't get nunnallee would be okay, but still there's a feeling this draft wasn't quite the coup without him or Levonas