Jake McKibbin

Tasked with the difficult dual responsibilities of winning games at the highest possible rate and developing the franchise's most important young player, Pat Murphy has occasionally sidelined (and at other times merely deprioritized) Jackson Chourio. Is he making the right calls? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Jackson Chourio hasn’t hit his stride just yet in the big leagues; he's still in the process of adapting to the sequencing and quality of pitches he’s facing. This isn’t unexpected for a 20-year-old plunged so suddenly into the deep water of MLB competition, but to properly adjust would require Chourio to regularly see big-league pitching--and those adjustments will be crucial to his contributions in the longer term. Adapting to not just the quality of pitching but the pressure and grind of baseball in the big leagues is an arduous process, so let’s take a look at some of Pat Murphy’s decisions about how to ease that process for his star pupil. The Art of The Carrot and the Stick In his first press conference, a former English rugby manager talked about the art of managing players and their egos to get the best out of them, and how some players need compliments and positivity to thrive, while others need a more critical directive. Balancing those disparate and sometimes competing needs for 26 players is complicated, but it’s a tightrope managers are required to walk. As early as spring training, we got a preview of Murphy giving the stick to Chourio with condemnation of his outfield reads, and that’s continued into the season. Though gentle to the point of near-subliminality, Murphy has made comments questioning his star rookie's professionalism and preparation. Chourio may respond well to this, and it seems as though Murphy has singled him out more than others (such as Oliver Dunn). He's certainly made the occasional positive public reference, as well. When it comes to the carrot and the stick, the results are the only thing that matters, and how Chourio responds will be a barometer of Murphy’s managerial capabilities, especially given Chourio’s age and moldability. Experience--something Murphy has in spades--often helps with this nuance, and with the respect he's garnered among the rest of the team, it may actually be effective with Chourio. The “Reset” Break Between Apr. 30 and May 3, Chourio got only a lone pinch-hit appearance, in the eighth inning of a game, effectively taking 25 innings and an off day away from the field. He was eased back into it, getting no more than three innings from May 8-12, usually as a fielding replacement. Murphy, when asked about this, suggested Chourio may need a reset after some issues with contact, and asked him to focus on how veteran players took their at-bats and prepared for games. It was a wake-up call, and it seemed to work. His contact skills have improved considerably, and the following markers show definite improvement since May 4 (compared to April): 16.7% strikeout rate (↓16.6%) Average exit velocity 89.4 mph (↑2.8 mph) Whiff rate 24.2% (↓7.7%) Chourio has reset and come back hitting the ball harder, making more contact and avoiding cheap outs. These are backed up by the eye test, with Chourio looking more patient and comfortable at the plate, chasing fewer ridiculous pitches and takine a higher-quality at-bat overall. It’s a solid improvement, although he does still need to get the ball in the air more often to access the full potential of his power. He’s by no means the finished article yet, but these are strong indicators that Murphy’s decision to bench Chourio for a period has paid dividends. The Pinch-Hitting and Winning Now Murphy has taken Chourio down for a pinch-hitter eight times so far this season, and in some ways, that makes sense. The rookie skipper has put winning above player development when forced to choose between them. That being said, Chourio needs a different approach, with a focus on what will help him in the long term as well. The team committed to him for eight to 10 years, depending on options. Even if it’s a struggle now, the benefits of developing Chourio well down the line are worthwhile. Pinch-hitting in high-leverage situations does nothing to help Chourio develop. It was particularly noticeable when Murphy made the decision to pinch-hit a struggling Blake Perkins (with two hits in two weeks) over Chourio, purely because of a right-handed reliever being on the mound. In the same vein as learning to use lower-leverage relievers when behind in the game, it’s also vital that Murphy can adjust to allow Chourio to face these kinds of situations, even if it doesn’t always work out in the short term. He’s expected to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Brewers for a long time, and he’ll be facing plenty of these down the line; that experience will be vital even later in the 2024 season. Murphy’s management of Chourio is open to interpretation. Whether or not the “stick” approach works will be judged by how the outfield phenom grows in the next few months. It seems like it’s paid off once already, but players can get tired if all they face is criticism. Just as importantly, when a manager calls out the performance of a player and starts removing that player from situations where they might have a huge impact, the player's confidence can take a hit. What do you think of Murphy's management style? Can you see the logic behind it, or does it baffle you slightly? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

It comes down to timing, and the fact these changes came immediately after the switch is where I'd suggest some stickability to the results. He's making better swing decisions and significantly more contact as a result and while I'm not saying he'll be slugging 1.000 over the rest of the season the swing being on time has been a massive boost to what was untapped talent in his bat

Over the last week and change, the Brewers have suddenly had impressive left-handed production in their lineup, from a surprising source. He's on time against all pitch types. His whiff rate is down. Is this the beginning of Jake Bauers, the star? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Some Brewers fans balked when the team traded Jace Avina and Brian Sanchez for Jake Bauers last November. Many close watchers of the farm system predicted Avina would have a breakout season, while Bauers had some flashy underlying metrics but no real substance to back it up. Very rarely does a player with over 1,200 at-bats in the majors get better overnight, but the Milwaukee front office bet on being able to do just that, after the Yankees worked to change Bauers's bat path to tap into more power in 2023. Upon joining the Brewers, Bauers's negatives were more obvious than his positives, with extreme swing-and-miss tendencies preventing him from getting the most out of what was usually solid contact--when he did manage to impact the ball. Twenty strikeouts in 57 plate appearances in April didn’t look pretty, and by his own admission, he just wasn’t on time, given how in and out of the lineup he was. Then came the change. Why Does A Toe Tap Suit Jake Bauers? Using a toe tap over a big leg kick to start the swing usually results in less forward momentum through your body as you impact the baseball, but it also reduces some of the variables that can go wrong when the timing is off. For Bauers, who has terrific raw power and leads the Brewers in bat speed, it may seem like a simple adjustment. However, by his own admission, having inconsistent playing time made it tough to maintain the timing necessary to make consistent contact with the leg kick. The toe tap gives him greater variability. That’s no slight on Pat Murphy, who gave Bauers ample opportunity in the first month despite poor results. In fact, having been forced into this change might be a blessing for Bauers. The toe tap allows him to rely on his natural timing and eye at the plate, rather than using a big windup that compromises his balance. Recent results have helped, but as Jack Stern pointed out, Bauers is fourth in the league in expected wOBA. This takes into account the quality and consistency of batted-ball contact while eliminating the strikeouts, showing that when Bauers does connect, the effects are quite destructive. He also leads the league in “launch angle sweet spot” rate, so when you put that power and the regular elevation together, you have a dangerous hitter--that is, when he makes contact. The Effects of the Tap Bauers may have always had a good eye at the plate, but his lack of timing has prevented him from using it. Alternatively, perhaps the big leg kick meant having to identify pitches earlier, but that constraint forced him to hone his eye at the plate. Either way, since going to a more simple pre-swing motion, the results have been astounding. As you can see, Bauers not only whiffed a lot inside the zone, but was chasing excessively, which exacerbated the issue. Since going to his toe tap, he’s shown a keen eye at the plate. He's chased just two out of the last 37 pitches outside the strike zone, a superb demonstration of plate discipline. In doing so, he's forced pitchers into the strike zone more often, and Bauers has pounced. Waiting on a pitch he can make contact with more often and achieving more hitter-friendly counts is a strong cocktail for success. On top of this, Bauers has found one other benefit so far. Early in the season, he was getting under a lot of pitches that he should have found very hittable. He was reaching the outfield, but with far too much elevation to do any real damage. Ideal launch angles are between 10° and 30°, but Bauers was hitting it over 50° too often. In the last week, he hasn’t hit a single ground ball but has found a ton of line drives: Rates like this won’t necessarily last. There will be some regression here, as there will be with the chase rates. That being said, if he can remain elite in both categories, then Bauers may be the type of first baseman who can carry an offense, with elite defense to boot. The final points to mention for Bauers are his contact rates and his aggressiveness within the strike zone. Some hitters, when they stop chasing, also find themselves taking a lot of called strikes, but that’s not been the case with Bauers in the last week. His swing decisions and contact metrics have improved considerably in the following stats: Whiff rate - 32.8% to 21.6% Called strike rate - 37.5% to 27.5% Chase rate - 26.1% to 5.4% Strikeout rate - 39.7% to 21.1% Avg exit velocity - 89.9 mph to 96.7 mph Some of this is, undeniably, the result of capitalizing on his chances, but it’s important to note that these results have come against some quality pitchers, including Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Brady Singer--all of whom are off to excellent starts this year. The league may adjust, but he’s crushed breaking pitches, offspeed stuff and fastballs alike during this stretch. There will be some regression, but Bauers may be the devastating bat that the Brewers could really use, with Rhys Hoskins's hamstring injury. Perhaps the moral of the story is that we should really stop questioning the Brewers front office since Matt Arnold took over. Do you think this is as sustainable as the underlying numbers suggest? Or is this just another flash in the pan for the Brewers at first base? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. View full article

Pat Murphy has limited Joey Ortiz's playing time in recent weeks in favor of testing out Oliver Dunn. Is there a legitimate reason for this decision? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Pat Murphy attributed the last week or so to seeing what Oliver Dunn can do when given the opportunity, and to be fair, Dunn has shown some positives. 50% of his batted balls are at least 95 mph, but unlocking that quality contact consistently has provided issues. His defense has been magnificent, and he’s one of the fastest players in the majors. So the question is, can Murphy’s decisions be justified? The Bat Profiles Joey Ortiz has taken strides forward from his Triple-A performance last season. Big exit velocities in 2023 were contrasted with big ground ball rates due to chasing excessively inside and below the strike zone, which limited the damage he could do. So far this season, he hasn't quite accessed the same hard-hit balls; however, there’s been a big change in his patience and understanding of what pitches he can damage. Ortiz’s chase and swing-and-miss rates are in the top 15% of baseball’s hitters, alongside a walk rate in the top 3%. Due to the lower exit velocities and ground balls, his expected numbers are significantly lower than his counting stats so far, with an expected slugging of just .346 on the year, mostly because he struggled to get the ball in the air, exactly as advertised. However, since the 19th of April, his expected line is .259/.373/.548, which matches the eye test. He’s been getting the ball in the air with a 29% fly ball rate, but there remains a slight question as to whether he can recover some of the extremely high exit velocities from Triple-A in 2023. It’s generally easier to hit the ball hard into the ground than in the air, but it is an area for even more growth in Ortiz’s hitting profile. Oliver Dunn, on the other hand since April 19th has just a 70% contact rate, absurdly low for a hitter with real strength for staying inside the strike zone. Jack Stern recently wrote about how hitters have adjusted to pummeling him in the strike zone as he’s shown no ability to punish them when they do. When making contact over this time, he has a 55% hard-hit rate, so you can see the appeal from Murphy in that if the contact skills improve, then Oliver Dunn could be a difference-making bat but perhaps needs a little more seasoning at this time. His expected line in contrast with Ortiz is a measly .152/.217/.221. Here is how his bat profiles contact-wise in the zone: Dunn doesn’t miss a lot on belt-high pitches, but anything near the strike zone's edges is proving an extraordinary challenge for him. You shouldn't have a swing-and-miss rate of 50% or more in any area of the strike zone to be effective at the big league level, but it's pervaded Oliver Dunn's strike zone. For comparison’s sake, Ortiz’s whiff map is here: The argument for Oliver Dunn’s extra playing time of late is perhaps the Brewers believe he will develop more effectively and quickly with that seasoning happening at the big league level instead of at Triple-A, and perhaps he’s not that far away. It can take just one minor tweak to click, and Dunn could go off, but this may be costing the Brewers wins in the here and now. Ortiz has shown improved patience at the plate, allowing him to take considerably more walks than expected. He’s never been an on-base machine, but that patience is allowing him to avoid ground balls and get on base, which gives his hitting profile a high floor even if the power output does fluctuate. The Matchups So here is where there may be a method to Murphy’s madness. Joey Ortiz has been demolishing sliders and sweepers this season, with an expected slugging of .540 against sliders and .680 against sweepers. Seth Lugo aside (who still has a very effective slider) each of Sonny Gray (52% whiff rate, 16% usage), Brady Singer (42.2% usage) and Hayden Wesneski (39.7% usage) in Ortiz’s last three starts have featured either highly used or highly effective sweepers/sliders. It’s too early in the season for adequate numbers per pitch type, but it may be one of the reasons why Ortiz is getting starts in these matchups. Dunn’s struggles, even when deployed, suggest it may have been more effective to keep Ortiz in the starting lineup regardless, simply because his contact skills and eye at the plate will allow him to be far more passable at the plate even if not quite as explosive. Defensive Chops Based on scouting reports coming into the year, if someone had suggested Oliver Dunn was a better defender than Joey Ortiz at third base, you’d have been laughed out of the room. Dunn has been exceptional in this regard, though, with a cannon of an arm reaching up to 90 mph this season and using his elite speed to showcase above-average range. Dunn’s arm has also been very accurate and reliable, something which may have let Ortiz down so far. Dunn has three defensive runs saved at third base in the equivalent of just 13 games, which would be on pace for a platinum glove winner at the end of the season. On the other hand, Joey Ortiz has some of the quickest hands you’ll see in major league baseball, and he uses these to get his throws off quickly enough that he doesn’t need to fire the ball to first base. His arm strength grades may look low, but the quick release is why, and he’s more than capable of handling the left-hand side of the infield. He has good range but has been slightly slow with his first step, and the fielding metrics are not so kind to him early, with -2 defensive runs saved and -1.4 UZR. Both of these are lower than the number he demonstrated last season, similar to the work with Adames, whose first step has greatly improved with the Brewers. Time in the field will likely even these out and showcase Ortiz as the plus defender he really is. That being said, it’s hard to argue with results, and Dunn has been exceptional defensively to start the season. I’d imagine there is work going on behind the scenes with Joey Ortiz, and it may be why we’ve seen some late-inning substitutions for him defensively. So What Should Murphy Do Next? All in all, as things stand, Ortiz looks like a more consistent, MLB-ready bat with sneaky pop and elite bat-to-ball skills, whereas Dunn is slightly out of his depth at the plate so far at this level. Of the two, it’s also possible to argue that Dunn has a higher ceiling with the bat. At the same time, the same is true in reverse defensively as Ortiz, with a little bit of polishing, has all the capability to be a premium shortstop. All being equal, it’s clear that Ortiz is more ready at this level right now and should be seeing the majority of the playing time at third base. Even considering matchups, while they may have helped Ortiz in some ways, they haven't helped Oliver Dunn at all, and Ortiz’s contact skills and eye at the plate are far more beneficial even if the situation isn’t quite as perfect for him. What do you think of the Ortiz v Dunn dilemma? Does it require an adjustment in management from Murphy, or could Dunn break out in a big way? View full article

Very small sample but worth keeping an eye on. Especially that chase rate

With their ace forced to wait an extra game for his turn in the rotation due to suspension, the Milwaukee Brewers are calling up their long-awaited southpaw starter prospect for an MLB debut. Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports Acquired in the infamous Josh Hader trade with San Diego, Robert Gasser was the 71st pick in the 2021 draft for the Padres. He rose quickly through the ranks in his year in their farm system before moving to Milwaukee, who pushed him aggressively to both Double-A and Triple-A ball. Spending the entirety of 2023 at the upper level of the minors, Robert Gasser won the International League Pitcher of the Year Award, with 166 strikeouts in 135 ⅓ innings of work and a 3.79 ERA in very hitter-friendly conditions. The automatic ball-strike system (with an infamously tight zone) forced him to refine his command even further, and one could argue that had the Brewers suffered any further pitching injuries last season, he would have been the next man up. After an issue with bone spurs at the outset of the 2024 season, he’s built up his workload again, with some interesting improvements to boot. He will make his first start in the majors Friday night against the St Louis Cardinals. His arsenal is that of a traditional starter, with a four-seamer, cutter and sinker as fastball variations, combined with a sweeper and changeup that provide a lot of different movement profiles. He isn’t a high-octane arm, but his mix of pitches has produced a 29% strikeout rate in Triple-A since the start of 2023, so perhaps we should take a more complex dive into his arsenal; (As a side note, if you’re curious about any of the statistics mentioned here and what they might mean, I have written a biography of them here, which covers what they mean and what constitutes good or bad in the overall context of the league.) Four-Seam Fastball Robert Gasser’s most effective swing-and-miss fastball is his four-seamer, which (like most such offerings) works best when located up in the zone. With the pitch generating a 28% whiff rate since the start of 2023, Gasser is throwing it harder than ever so far this season, touching 96 mph and sitting a solid mile per hour higher than he managed in 2023. Combine this with strong movement characteristics from a lower-than-average arm slot, and he has a vertical approach angle (VAA) of -4.17° since the start of ‘23, which would be good enough for 11th in MLB over that period. Despite this, he doesn’t generate a lot of induced vertical break, so it can be a hit-or-miss pitch in some ways, depending on location. Keeping it up in the strike zone will really let the pitch play up, but throwing it low in the zone will reduce his VAA and make him considerably more hittable--as you can see below, with how hitters slugged against him by location. Notice the damage comes when he drops into the middle of the strike zone or below: If he can successfully command that fastball up, he’ll be very successful this season but it does rely heavily on being able to locate and take advantage of that vertical approach angle. The Cutter Throwing it primarily on the outer half of the plate for left-handed batters, or to get inside to right-handers, Gasser commands his cutter relatively well. However, it has shown a tendency to get hit hard in these areas. It has a traditional cutter’s profile, with minimal horizontal break, and is used to keep hitters off his four-seam heat. Unfortunately, the damage has been significant, with a .968 OPS against it since the beginning of ‘23, but it also has the best exit velocity numbers of any of his fastball variations, at just 85.9 mph on average. A big reason for this is how effective the pitch has been at the top of the strike zone (although he doesn’t use it up all that often) and a 31% line-drive rate. The reason Gasser endeavors to force the cutter inside, despite some high-quality contact against it there, is that it’s been a good place for ground balls. He's been using the four-seamer for swings and misses and the cutter to try and get weaker contact in play. It hasn’t always worked out, and there may be tweaks to how his arsenal is used to get more out of the pitch, but in using it as such, it will also tunnel well with the fastball at the top of the strike zone. Sinker Gasser’s most lightly-used fastball variation, the sinker has a 51% ground-ball rate. This skyrockets to 64% when facing left-handers. It should, maybe, be confined to use against same-side hitters. He gets four more inches of vertical drop than the average MLB sinker, which is a big reason for the ground balls, and it works well at the bottom of the zone, allowing him to use differing fastballs to all locations. I think it shows some promise, with more work, and could potentially see more usage than the cutter as time goes on, but whether it gets more contact with that increased usage is something only time will tell. Sweeper Gasser’s sweeper has proved an almost unhittable pitch at the upper level of the minors, with five inches above the MLB average in horizontal break. With a 37% chase rate, the sweeper even induces right-handed hitters to swing over pitches that sweep far inside the strike zone, producing a ton of weak contact on top of a 35% whiff rate. When he throws it anywhere but right down the middle, the quality of contact on this pitch is startlingly low: Average EV - 83 mph Hard hit rate - 17% xFIP - 1.09 Pop Up Rate - 24% The pop-up rate may be surprising for a breaking pitch, but because Gasser sacrificed some vertical drop for more horizontal break, hitters have a tendency to get underneath the pitch and give up cheap outs. Overall, his quality of contact on the sweeper is phenomenal; he commands it well both inside and outside the strike zone; and it bears out in the background numbers with a LOT of blue: All told, it's a very underrated pitch, and it's likely to be a big reason for his success in the big leagues throughout the rest of 2024. Changeup Gasser’s final offering, he uses the change almost exclusively to right-handed hitters; it performs about how you would expect. Front-dooring the pitch hasn't gone well for him, but when he can drop in on the outside corner to righties, it’s proved mightily effective: Generating a strong ground-ball rate and again minimizing hard contact well, the changeup doesn’t generate a lot of swing-and-miss, so Gasser will be relying on his fielding unit to make the plays behind him. It has roughly league-average vertical drop, while producing 10” more horizontal movement, but his biggest issue is that the velocity differential from his fastball isn’t all that great, at just 6 mph on average. It also blends in quite closely with his sinker in terms of the movement he gets, which is a stark reminder of a strange principle. Very often, a pitcher's sinker and their change share a movement profile, but the firmer pitch works well against same-handed batters and the change of pace works against opposite-handed ones. Gasser has five effective pitches with which he can bamboozle an offense, and has made strides with his command since May 2023 that leave little doubt as to his readiness to join the major-league rotation. He can go deeper into games, with a better track record of health and durability, than most of the Brewers' current rotation, and he provides an upgrade in quality at the back end of said rotation. It’s very likely that Gasser will stick in the big leagues. He could be a valuable addition to what is proving a surprisingly successful season for the Brewers. Everything here makes sense, and he'll be a fascinating watch for the rest of the season. Best of Luck Robert! View full article

The Brewers are coming to the end of a period with 39 games in 41 days, and it may have started to wear down some of the team's star offensive pieces--as well as young players unfamiliar with such a heavy schedule so early in the campaign. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Pat Murphy has been criticized in some parts for his ultra-aggressive, win-now mentality so far this season. His approach has proved successful in generating early wins, though. It’s a toss-up how that’s affected the team so far, but the Brewers have nine more games to go without another off day, and with offensive performances faltering slightly, they may benefit from using their bench players slightly more often. The Impact of Days Off on William Contreras In 2013, Russell Carleton at Baseball Prospectus did some mathematical analysis of the impact of a player who’s played in each of the last seven days, compared with those playing in five of those seven days, and noted a difference of around 3 points of OBP. This isn’t a lot, but consider the implications over multiple lineup spots and things start to get more interesting. That’s at just seven days, so picture William Contreras, who has played in every single game for the Brewers this season and shows no signs of being ready to voluntarily sit himself down. Murphy was asked about sitting his star catcher. “We have a scheduled off day for him. It’s August 8th,” he joked. Contreras has continued to mash at the plate, but there will come a point (as with all catchers) where he’ll likely see some of the contributions wane under a workload such as this. The reason baseball can be so demanding without a day off is almost as much a mental wearing-down as it is a physical one. Every day on which one confronts the intense focus of the minutiae involved in baseball brings a mental fatigue that can lead to errors in decision-making that you just cannot get away with at the major-league level. We saw it with Contreras perhaps having his poorest defensive game at catcher on Sunday. If Murphy won’t sit him out for a day, then he could at least DH him for a couple of games, now that Gary Sánchez is healthy enough to play again. The Curse of The Streaky Hitter In Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins, the Brewers have two players who can carry an offense when they get hot, but unfortunately, both bats ran cold over the weekend. Adames showed against the Rays just what he can do, and is perhaps unfortunate not to have several more home runs given his quality of contact at Camden Yards last month, but Hoskins is struggling again, with a .182/.357/.364 line in his past seven games. Perhaps I’m expecting too much--he's maintained good on-base rates--but he’s there to slug. So far, he has seen dropoffs in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. The contrast to this is his expected slugging is .511 (actual .432), suggesting some bad luck on balls he has hit hard, while also showing strong plate discipline. It will likely continue to come around as the season goes on, and the luck will even itself out, but the Brewers without Christian Yelich rely heavily on the likes of Adames and Hoskins to drive in runs. At times, Contreras has seemed like a one-man show. The Rotation Is Pieced Together With Duct Tape, but Not For Long As things stand, the Brewers rotation isn’t exactly “elite,” with Bryse Wilson and Joe Ross expected to provide quality contributions. Both have, perhaps, been better than expected so far, but DL Hall’s uninspiring early form and injuries to reserves in the minor leagues like Robert Gasser and Evan McKendry have hurt the Brewers in both their bullpen and their rotation. Gasser is likely to make a start on Friday against the Cardinals, while Hall has whispered to Sophia Minnaert about his velocity returning after some treatment and rest on his knee. Both of these could provide more reliability for the Brewers' rotation and allow them to get further into games before turning to relievers, with a knock-on effect of destressing a heavily taxed bullpen. The next 10 days will be a matter of survive-over-thrive for the Brewers, hoping to grit and grind their way to a positive record before their next off day. The potential returns of Hall, Gasser and Yelich by the end of this stretch may be telling, but they'll need the middle of the lineup to fire again in order to stay afloat. Murphy has a challenge on his hands in terms of player rotation, and all in all, it may be a pivotal stretch of games for the Milwaukee Brewers season. View full article

I'm not sure he's quite enough for Cabrera on his own Boeve has looked good, but still needs to elevate a little more Tyler Black has been struggling against anything off speed/breaking and has to develop that side of things, plus has barely played third all year so is unlikely to cover that Ortiz will be future shortstop so if you're looking at prospects it's more likely you'll see boeve/wilken there together, and thats less likely to be traded Plus Wilken has so much power, and showed a ton of promise last year. He's really intriguing as a bat, so not saying it's a crazy idea but can't quite see it with him being the best power source in the Brewers system

The Miami Marlins shock Luis Arraez trade signaled a readiness to rebuild, but can the Brewers take advantage? Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports The Marlins traded away effectively one year of Luis Arraez, the 2023 batting title champion with elite bat-to-ball skills and subpar defensive chops away for a haul from the Padres. As always with trades involving prospects, the final evaluation of the trade will come down the line; however, the Padres gave up their sixth, ninth, and thirteenth best prospects per MLB.com as well as a reliever. Dillon Head was the 25th pick in the 2023 draft, a prep outfielder with 70-grade speed and the kind of athleticism that’s very projectable. Jacob Marsee is another strong defensive outfielder with 98 walks to 97 strikeouts last season, while Nathan Martorella shows similar plate discipline and more pop with less of a defensive home. Handing over all three for a one-year rental of a player with minimal versatility and just one strong tool is likely an overpay from the Padres. This likely means the Brewers won’t be getting anything on the cheap, needing to pay full value in any potential trade. Edward Cabrera The jewel on the Marlins roster, his 6.05 ERA belies the amount of potential Cabrera has. His statcast is filled with red because of an inordinate amount of swing and miss generated on each of his changeup curveballs and soldier, which all have 30%+ whiff rates. The changeup is his main pitch to both left and right-handers, with an average exit velocity of just 78.4 mph. The one thing holding him back is command issues, which he promised improvements on during spring training but may have been set back due to an early season injury. He also has an elite ground ball rate when he puts the ball in play, over 55% both in 2023 and 2024, which will play up to the Brewers' infield defense. Over his career, Cabrera holds a 4.19 ERA, which is hardly spectacular and belies what sort of ceiling he could have. The question will be whether or not the Marlins believe they can improve his command because, so far, that doesn’t seem to be the case. The Brewers, on the other hand, have shown a real knack for getting the best out of pitchers with command issues, Freddy Peralta being a prime example, and it may attract them to such a young, talented, and most of all a controllable arm. Cabrera’s trade value will be immense, not just because of his high ceiling should a team unlock him but because he won't be a free agent until 2029. He’s young, cheap, and has bags of talent, so any trade will not come on the cheap. As a result, the Brewers are likely to steer clear of a deal for Cabrera, but their farm system is more than capable of compiling an enticing offer for the young stud. It will involve some upper-level and lower-level talent, perhaps something along the lines of this: Potential Trade Package: Robert Gasser and 20-30 ranked prospect Edward Cabrera could develop into a number two starter under the Brewers' tutelage, and with the year of control, it may cost them. A package of the steady Robert Gasser, who maybe can’t reach the heights of Cabrera at his best and is still unproven at the MLB level. He has an extra period of control and a reliable injury record. On top of that, a lower-ranked, high upside hitting prospect could make the Marlins sit up and take notice. The Brewers are more in need of upside in their rotation than at the back end, but it could be tough for them to part with Gasser, who shone last season and is ready for a big-league rotation. Durable in ways Cabrera maybe isn't, while adding in a prospect like O'Rae or Di Turi. All in all, I believe that to be a relatively fair trade on all fronts. If The Brewers Don’t, Who Will? The NL Central is filled with top farm systems that could be ready to take on a trade with the hapless Marlins, the Chicago Cubs in particular. The Cubs need a quality bullpen arm, and Tanner Scott may fill that for them with his 0.99 WHIP in 2023 and a lefty to complement Hector Neris at the back end of their pen. Adbert Alzolay has proven not to be as effective as Devin Williams, like, some fans thought, blowing six saves so far this year, and the acquisition of Scott could go a big way to helping them grind out tight games like they have in recent times. Their offense has been poor to start the year, and a shutdown pen will be needed to maintain their early record; they also have the assets to make such a trade with a consensus top-three system in baseball. The Cincinnati Reds have also been showing a ton of promise, led by Elly De La Cruz. Behind him, however, there hasn’t been much to speak of, with Spencer Steer cooling off and Will Benson third amongst their qualified hitters with a .694 OPS. They may eye up reinforcements in the form of Bryan de la Cruz in the outfield, and with Jonathan India, they may be able to provide the perfect replacement for Arraez. The Pirates seem less likely to make a move and hog their farm talent; however, given Aroldis Chapman's up-and-down performance this season, Tanner Scott may also help them. The rest of the NL Central could smell blood, but of all avenues, the Cabrera trade may make the biggest impact on any team's 2024 playoff probabilities. What do you think of the proposed trade? And can you see upgraded threats in the rest of the NL Central? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. View full article

Jacob Misiorowski won Southern League Pitcher of the Week honors Monday, after two dominant starts last week. He may just be finding his groove. Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports First of all, let's temper expectations a little bit. Jacob Misiorowski only made it through eight total innings this week, on a controlled pitch count in both of his starts. The Brewers are ramping him up slowly, and that's potentially one reason why he didn't start quite so hot, but this week's performances were electric for three very big reasons. The Fastball is Back Earlier in this season, Misiorowski was sitting in the 93-95 mph range. That was a significant drop from last season, and with it, his whole delivery was out of sync. Balls were flying around and he couldn't seem to put hitters away. This week, the heat came back with a vengeance, regularly in the 99 mph range and hitters just. Could. Not. Deal. That fastball produced some outrageous swings, particularly the last one in the video above, and was a big reason for his turnaround from some early scuffles. More to the point, everything looked smoother on the mound, with a lot more balance and poise. It's a really, really good omen for the Brewers' fireballer. The Control His line on the week was eight innings, one hit, one run, just two walks and a massive 13 strikeouts. As erudite followers of Misiorowski's progress, your attention will be drawn first to the walks in the box score. Then, you divert a quick glance to the footnotes for the hit-by-pitches. There were none this week. Other than those two free passes, the only blemishes were a couple of wild pitches that allowed his opponents to score the single run he allowed this week. The fastball control (if not necessarily the command) looked good, but even when he misses his spot, the raw stuff will allow him to smoke hitters. That being said, the command was improved. Particularly noticeable: how effective he was in 3-2 counts at digging in and staying in the zone, as well as how effectively he worked ahead in counts. The Efficiency Perhaps the best marker of Jacob Misiorowski’s performance this last week was not his velocity, nor his command, but his efficiency. Big raw stuff and limited command usually result in long innings and high pitch counts, but Misiorowski was highly efficient this time around. By challenging hitters early in the count and not allowing them to get ahead, he produced a heady combination of weak contact and strikeouts that bodes well He required an average of 15 pitches per inning, which is significantly less than normal, and he allowed very little threatening contact. In short, he was dominant, and his control unlocked an efficiency we haven't seen before. While he may just be hitting his stride in the 2024 season after a longer buildup, there are words of caution. It was just eight innings, albeit unrecognizable ones from previous weeks, and the opposing Blue Wahoos' bats have been very ineffective to start the season. Sterner tests loom, and further lessons will be learned by Misiorowski before he reaches the big leagues, but the promise of his untapped potential was laid bare this past week. View full article

Since he's likely to make his MLB debut in this week's Pittsburgh Pirates series, here's all you need to know about the repertoire of Tobias Myers and why he just may stick in Milwaukee. Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports Tobias Myers has bounced around six different organizations, some of them notably strong with pitching, but since leaving the Tampa Bay Rays, Myers has struggled to unlock his talent. Fastball command issues and declining velocity clouded his stint in the Guardians system. He signed with the Brewers in the 2022-23 offseason and struck out 168 in 137 innings for the Biloxi Shuckers in Double-A, despite sporting a 5.00 ERA. Toward the end of last year, however, the minor-league experts began to take notice of a breakout, with Myers recording a 2.53 ERA in September and a strikeout rate of 37.3%. The Brewers have a habit of tapping into the abilities of formerly hyped prospects after the shine has worn off, and it’s important to remember that Myers is just 25 years old--despite the fact that he made his professional debut in 2016. He was valued highly by the Guardians, who couldn’t quite get the best out of him, in large part due to the struggle he had to generate swing-and-miss after leaving the Rays. The question is: just what have the Brewers got in Myers? An Electric Fastball Tobias Myers's four-seam fastball has remained the electric offering we saw take shape in 2023, sitting 94 mph and touching 97 mph while averaging 20” of induced vertical break. Simply put, that fastball is effective, but it hasn’t always been this way. Myers regained almost 3 mph on average on his primary offering in 2023 and it’s a big reason why his strikeouts returned to elite levels. The rise (combined with average to above-average velocity) that he maintains deep into starts is a nightmare for opposing hitters, who have whiffed on the pitch 32.1% of the time in Triple-A this season. To put that in perspective, Freddy Peralta has a 23.6% whiff rate on his four-seamer in 2024. Only Paul Skenes has a better swing-and-miss rate in Triple-A than Myers's; that’s some pretty lofty company. Realistically this is the pitch that he makes his name on, and although there are some questions surrounding his delivery, the results are tough to argue with when you combine the movement with the added velocity. The Brand-New Cutter An obvious feel for spin led the Brewers to lean into a cutter for Myers, and it hasn’t disappointed. While the cutter isn’t as prolific as a swing-and-miss pitch, it’s been highly effective at missing barrels and getting easy, early outs off his fastball. In a small sample, he has induced an average exit velocity of just 80 mph, with a nice 69% ground-ball rate. It’s proven highly effective as a secondary offering for a pitcher who was primarily fastball/slider before finding this look. Reducing the use of his changeup and curveball by leaning into the cutter have produced strong results so far, and more importantly, it’s been a valuable out pitch to lefties. The Slider An effective swing-and-miss pitch, when he leaves it up, he has a propensity to get hit hard and in the air. When executed properly, though, it’s a strong putaway pitch. A gyro slider with more vertical drop than horizontal movement, he’s generating swings and misses 60% of the time this season. With two strikes, that elevates even further. He's commanded it okay so far this season, and when it stays down he can really limit hard contact, too. Adding a third plus pitch in the cutter has allowed Myers's arsenal to play up, and that four-seam fastball is something to watch closely in what is likely to be his debut Monday or Tuesday. He has the raw stuff and the improved command to excel; it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him staying on the Brewers roster. He's battled hard for several years to be where he is today, and he's still just 25 years old. He's taken strides forward with the Brewers and seems ready for the opportunity to start against Pittsburgh tomorrow. The reality is that Myers needed injury to get his shot, and barring further setbacks from Jakob Junis and Robert Gasser or a longer-term prognosis for DL Hall or Wade Miley, he could be off the team in short order. However, quality will stick around, and if he shows the same durability to get through innings and generate whiffs at the big-league level that he has in the minors, the Brewers will find a place for him on their roster. They can't afford not to. We’re rooting for you here at Brewer Fanatic Toby! You’ve earned your shot, go get ‘em! View full article

Prognosis was 6-8 weeks, so likely with a Nashville stint he'll be back around the start of June. This would be great, but I hope however long it takes him to feel okay to play, they give him a couple of extra days. Just to be extra sure, the last thing we want is a month of August '23 Yelich production, it doesn't really help anyone

Christian Yelich's back is a nagging problem, and it raised its ugly head again on Friday night. The Brewers may be wise to take a cautious approach, but who would replace him should he need a stint on the IL? Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports Christian Yelich’s back is a time bomb waiting to happen, but thankfully, it hasn’t caused him to miss massive amounts of time on the injured list in recent years. Yelich has missed just 26 games over the last two years, but that’s not to say it hasn’t affected him. Between May and July ‘23, Yelich had a resurgence towards his old self after some down years as a result of the aforementioned back injury, producing a .314/.395/.531 slash line with 13 home runs and a 149 WRC+. Then came August when his production plummeted alongside his exit velocities during the Brewers playoff push, dropping to an 83 WRC+ and averaging over six mph less on batted balls. Heavy suspicions were this was a back-related incident, especially given the IL stint in September, and it shows how much of an effect it has on his ability at the plate. While Yelich took 15 days on the IL, he returned to his form of prior months immediately, crushing balls from his first plate appearance back, and it begs the question of why the Brewers didn’t sit him down earlier. I wrote earlier this year about how Pat Murphy and the coaching staff must give Yelich breaks as soon as this flares up because the effect it has on him at the plate is enormous. He can still find ways to scrap on base with his strong plate discipline, but he loses almost all power and timing. If the Brewers identify the issue early and allow it to heal properly, they can still see a fantastic player with top-five offensive production in the league over a shorter span of games. In short, 120 games of Yelich with a 150 WRC+ or above is significantly more valuable than 150 games of below-average offensive production, and if that means a more cautious timeline and approach, then so be it. It definitely shouldn’t come as any surprise for the Brewers to give him ten days off on the IL and ensure it’s healed properly. In this case, whom should they go to as his replacement? The Man Born To Be A Brewer Charles Brewer Hicklen was brought in on a minor league deal in November, with Matt Arnold commenting on his athleticism and loud tools and saying that their scouting department was a big fan of him for his skill set and name. A former top 100 prospect with the Royals, Hicklen has just four major league at-bats for the Royals, and that’s a byproduct of his high strikeout rates. Since joining the Brewers, however, his power has shone through while the strikeouts have dipped to a more manageable level. Looking at his results early in the Triple-A season, Hicklen is hitting .317/.431/.585 with a 15.7% walk rate while striking out perhaps a little too often. If a comparison is needed, You could think of him as a version of Keston Hiura, who can play passable outfield defense. Above-average speed but inconsistent routes would be the expectation there, but the real reason for his call-up will be his bat. Here are some of the metrics in Triple-A since 2023: 91 mph average exit velocity 46% hard-hit rate 23.5% barrel rate 35.4% Whiff rate (Yikes) 31.9% Strikeout Rate (Also yikes) There is some regression to be expected on his early 2024 numbers, which are inflated, but the Brewers were impressed with Hicklen during camp, and he showed off his thump in those games to leave a lasting impression. He isn't, however, currently on the 40-man roster, which may provide an obstacle to his promotion, although there are some candidates for DFA on the roster, which should improve the chances. Hicklen isn't going to be anything like Christian Yelich and is likely to provide boom-or-bust production while Yelich is on the IL. The Brewers may strike lucky and steal a few home runs while Yelich is out, and he can adequately cover the outfield, perhaps to a similar standard as Yelich. An additional element of intrigue is the next person up is likely to be the 1000th major league player for the Milwaukee Brewers. It would be the ultimate irony for that person to be called "Brewer." Other Options Joey Wiemer would be the first thought for many. However, there are various reasons why he's unlikely to be brought up. Amid a sizable technical switch, Wiemer must show a marked consistency in the quality of his at-bats, with occasional crushed balls followed by poor strikeouts. He recorded four strikeouts in the first game of a doubleheader on Friday before a walk and a double in the second game, but the Brewers are likely to want him to get regular playing time while he sorts out his mechanics at the plate. He does play outstanding defense while being on the 40-man, but his current needs for plate appearances and .220/.328/.360 line is unlikely to push him to the majors again just yet. Chris Roller is on the 40-man, perhaps most likely to challenge Hicklen for that role, hitting .308/.325/.410 in Nashville over his first 40 plate appearances. He doesn't have the same thump as Brewer Hicklen, and while striking out, he more than one would like for a contact hitter. Defensively, he is superior, able to fill in as an average center fielder with good range and reads. Perhaps most importantly, he already sits on the Brewers 40-man roster, which may swing the decision in his favor. Who would you like to see up for the Milwaukee Brewers? Do you even think Yelich should go on the Injured List or go day-to-day? Please let us know what you think in the comments below. View full article

Absolutely! I think that's the beauty of sports, and especially baseball, it comes down to winning little moments in each game, and who takes their chances. Over a 162 game season little incremental differences can be big, and it's one reason I really wanted to dig into this to see how much it could pay off, but it's all anticipatory.

Both Joey Wiemer and Tyler Black had legitimate chances to make the opening day roster, have they pushed their case in Triple A for a promotion to the majors? And what doe their timeline look like? Unfortunately, neither of the two players most ready for a callup have gotten off to hot starts in terms of what you would want to see from them, although Tyler Black is hitting .304/.392/.435. Joey Wiemer has faced some bad luck on batted balls, but is hitting just .120/.214/.160 with some flaky defense to boot. It’s safe to say neither are forcing the front office into difficult decisions. What’s been happening under the surface during the first week? Tyler Black A highly intriguing prospect for the Brewers, Tyler Black’s array of bat to ball skills, sneaky power and speed to burn have seen him soar to the number 44 prospect in baseball per MLB pipeline. This season hasn’t started well however with Black's surface numbers belying a surprising amount of swing and miss in his stroke. Here are Black’s stats for the first week of 2024 compared with 2023: Chase Rate - 32.7% (2024) vs 18.5% (2023) Whiff Rate - 33.3% vs 22.4% Swinging Strike - 15.2% vs 9.8% Hard Hit rate - 41.2% vs 32.5% Sweet Spot Rate - 52.9% vs 23.3% Foul Rate - 28.9% vs 43% All in all, although the contact rates haven’t been close to the levels Black has shown over the last few years, the quality of contact has been considerably better. He has been quite feast or famine in how he’s hit the ball, from weak topped balls to strongish line drives, but he hasn’t been able to stay in the at bat by fouling off pitches and waiting on something to hit. With Black, this appears to be a small sample size thing, though one that bears watching, and the Brewers will be keeping an eye on the hard hit rate and the whiff rates quite closely when it comes to assessing his readiness. A real strength of his seems to be his ability to graft and grind his way on base, and it’s reassuring to see that even when he’s struggling a little at the plate, he’s still posting elite on base percentages. Another point to note for Black is, per our amazing minor league coverage team here at Brewer Fanatic his defense at first base has been really strong so far this season, showing good range and adept hands. Blacks’ biggest weakness defensively is his arm, with a strange throwing motion that can hinder him being negated by the lack of throwing required from first base. His speed will give him the range to be above average here, and it’s nice to note his strength so far in what is still a relatively new position. Black will have to prove he can sustain consistent exit velocities over the season, and that his power outbreak last season was no fluke in a position that demands that thump. A likely timeline is probably nearer the all star break depending on the form of Jake Bauers or injury permitting. Joey Wiemer Wiemer seems to be the very definition of “forcing it”, having worked intensely during the off season on calming his swing path. The results thus far have been exactly what you’d expect from something that is still getting bedded in, with occasional flashes of monstered balls alongside a lot of swing and miss and poor quality at bats. Some standout statistics in the first week for Wiemer are (note that Wiemer’s 2023 stats include his time in the majors): Whiff Rate - 31.9% (2024) vs 33.2% (2023) Chase Rate - 26.3% vs 29.1% Launch Angle - 4.4° vs 9.1° Avg Exit Velocity - 91 mph vs 89.4 mph A big reason for Wiemer’s changes in the off season was to minimize the poor contact and be more consistent at the plate. He has an xBA of .200 and xSLG of .280 so far while still striking out at a 25% clip. So far this season that hasn;t really happened, and there is a big concern in and amongst this. Wiemer in college struggled to harness the athletic capabilities in his frame due to lower launch angles, resulting in more gap to gap power than you would like. The Brewers managed to unlock this power by elevating the ball further, but there is a slight worry that throughout spring training and so far in the minor leagues Wiemer has not managed to hit as many fly balls as Brewer fans have become accustomed to. Wiemer can be an electric difference maker but he has to keep hitting fly balls, otherwise his ceiling will drop rapidly. Defensively he hasn’t looked himself so far either, with a couple of plays in Wednesday night’s game that were incredibly unlike him including dropping what was quite a routine foul fly ball and allowing an unearned run on the next pitch. It may take time for his changes to bed in and see just what the Brewers have got for Wiemer but the good news is they can afford to give him plenty of playing time to bed those changes in with such a stacked outfield in the major leagues. It’s likely that Wiemer won’t be up until there is a consistent uptick in his batted ball numbers, and that in itself may mean a full year in the minors barring injury. That timeline is entirely okay with a player as talented as Joey Wiemer, who when polished can be a hitter to fear for the Brewers in 2025. Given his need for at bats, and the form of Brewer Hicklen who has carried on from an excellent spring training, potentially pushes Wiemer back even in the case of an emergency until he's absolutely ready. What do you think of the two young starlets on the Nashville Sounds roster? have you any concerns, or perhaps a more optimistic outlook on their timelines? Let us know in the comments below View full article