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Jake McKibbin

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  1. I think minimum is a bit far given this is baseball but it does certainly build some momentum Cards series will be very interesting, and can't wait to see how they do with the rays given the best starters all feature against the cards
  2. Also nice to have your three best starters this season going to the cardinals series with peralta Miley and burnes
  3. With a player and team who have been through as much together as the Brewers and Keston Hiura have, there are bound to be complications when considering giving things another try. In his case, there are two distinct questions to ask: What boxes does he still need to check in order to earn another chance, and what other move would open a place for him on both the 26- and 40-man rosters? Reasons for Caution Hiura produced an OPS of 1.181 last season in Nashville, across an admittedly small sample of 59 plate appearances. There, his strikeout rate was a viable 25.4 percent. Yet, he couldn’t translate that success to the majors. Part of this is down to the inconsistency of jumping around, not finding regular playing time, as well as what’s very likely a slight mental block at this stage. As such, the last thing you want to do with a promising bat in what is likely a last chance would be to bring him up and not use him, or react adversely to small sample results. Hiura needs to feel the confidence within the club, and confidence within himself having made this journey several times before. There is one other statistic that stands out, though again, a small sample. In late innings of close games, Hiura has 12 at bats, with just two hits and six strikeouts, implying that he perhaps needs to show his improvements off under pressure a little more before he can cope with the demands of playing in the midst of a big-league pennant race again. He has an .868 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs–again, slightly below his current production, and something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. The more confidence he develops in himself and his approach, the more these stats will increase. How Does He Fit? DFA Jesse Winker Winker is currently occupying the DH slot for the Brewers, predominantly against right-handers, with William Contreras or others splitting the role when facing left-handed pitchers. He is expected to get some limited time in the outfield, and has shown good plate discipline but a total lack of power in the batter’s box. The Brewers are likely to give him a little more time to turn things around and regain the power stroke that made him such a fearsome hitter in Cincinnati, which would allow Hiura more time in the minors to solidify his base, increase the level of comfort in his approach, and make sure that he’s fully ready when he does come up again. As Matt Trueblood said though, time may be running short for Winker. Hiura can fulfill all the roles Jesse Winker currently performs and more, given just how awful Winker is in the outfield grass. He would get regular playing time in this position on the roster, mostly against right-handers but occasionally against left-handed pitching, giving him a real chance to thrive. One thing most people agree on is that Hiura needs regular playing time and opportunities. DFA Luke Voit This roster decision seems like it may be coming sooner rather than later, with Voit scuffling horribly against left-handed pitching, and showing a serious lack of power. He has made some very agile plays at first base, but in reality, his bat hasn’t performed quite the way the Brewers would have hoped, and he could be traded or cut by the end of the month. This may come a little too quickly for Hiura, as well as resigning him to far fewer plate appearances, and solely against left-handers (when they sit Rowdy Tellez). Tellez is struggling significantly in his few at-bats off southpaws so far, so the Brewers need someone who can hit left-handers, but to throw this burden on Hiura after last season may be a touch presumptuous, particularly if you want long-term success from him. DFA Mike Brosseau As is the case with Voit, Brosseau is in the lineup to hit lefties, but his inability to field balls makes him a liability at both first and third base, resulting in him playing as the DH against left-handed starters and getting just five at-bats in May so far. Again, Hiura shouldn’t be brought up in this case (he needs regular playing time), but Brosseau’s time in Milwaukee may be coming to an end in the short term. The most likely point of time is when Luis Urias returns from the 60-day injured list at the end of the month, making it even less likely that Hiura will be taking his place on the 40-man roster. *** Hiura provides a power bat that can carry an offense and punish pitchers in a way the Brewers aren’t managing to do consistently. If they want someone as an everyday DH, that hitter needs to be a serious slugger, posting an OPS of .800 or more, and they’re just not getting that level of production at the moment. It seems a matter of time before Hiura makes the big-league roster again, and when he does, prepare for fireworks.
  4. As the Brewers' quest for a more reliably productive designated hitter continues, Keston Hiura remains an interesting potential solution. Why isn't he already with the parent club again, and what needs to happen in order for him to get one last shot? Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman, Katie Stratman / USA TODAY NETWORK With a player and team who have been through as much together as the Brewers and Keston Hiura have, there are bound to be complications when considering giving things another try. In his case, there are two distinct questions to ask: What boxes does he still need to check in order to earn another chance, and what other move would open a place for him on both the 26- and 40-man rosters? Reasons for Caution Hiura produced an OPS of 1.181 last season in Nashville, across an admittedly small sample of 59 plate appearances. There, his strikeout rate was a viable 25.4 percent. Yet, he couldn’t translate that success to the majors. Part of this is down to the inconsistency of jumping around, not finding regular playing time, as well as what’s very likely a slight mental block at this stage. As such, the last thing you want to do with a promising bat in what is likely a last chance would be to bring him up and not use him, or react adversely to small sample results. Hiura needs to feel the confidence within the club, and confidence within himself having made this journey several times before. There is one other statistic that stands out, though again, a small sample. In late innings of close games, Hiura has 12 at bats, with just two hits and six strikeouts, implying that he perhaps needs to show his improvements off under pressure a little more before he can cope with the demands of playing in the midst of a big-league pennant race again. He has an .868 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs–again, slightly below his current production, and something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. The more confidence he develops in himself and his approach, the more these stats will increase. How Does He Fit? DFA Jesse Winker Winker is currently occupying the DH slot for the Brewers, predominantly against right-handers, with William Contreras or others splitting the role when facing left-handed pitchers. He is expected to get some limited time in the outfield, and has shown good plate discipline but a total lack of power in the batter’s box. The Brewers are likely to give him a little more time to turn things around and regain the power stroke that made him such a fearsome hitter in Cincinnati, which would allow Hiura more time in the minors to solidify his base, increase the level of comfort in his approach, and make sure that he’s fully ready when he does come up again. As Matt Trueblood said though, time may be running short for Winker. Hiura can fulfill all the roles Jesse Winker currently performs and more, given just how awful Winker is in the outfield grass. He would get regular playing time in this position on the roster, mostly against right-handers but occasionally against left-handed pitching, giving him a real chance to thrive. One thing most people agree on is that Hiura needs regular playing time and opportunities. DFA Luke Voit This roster decision seems like it may be coming sooner rather than later, with Voit scuffling horribly against left-handed pitching, and showing a serious lack of power. He has made some very agile plays at first base, but in reality, his bat hasn’t performed quite the way the Brewers would have hoped, and he could be traded or cut by the end of the month. This may come a little too quickly for Hiura, as well as resigning him to far fewer plate appearances, and solely against left-handers (when they sit Rowdy Tellez). Tellez is struggling significantly in his few at-bats off southpaws so far, so the Brewers need someone who can hit left-handers, but to throw this burden on Hiura after last season may be a touch presumptuous, particularly if you want long-term success from him. DFA Mike Brosseau As is the case with Voit, Brosseau is in the lineup to hit lefties, but his inability to field balls makes him a liability at both first and third base, resulting in him playing as the DH against left-handed starters and getting just five at-bats in May so far. Again, Hiura shouldn’t be brought up in this case (he needs regular playing time), but Brosseau’s time in Milwaukee may be coming to an end in the short term. The most likely point of time is when Luis Urias returns from the 60-day injured list at the end of the month, making it even less likely that Hiura will be taking his place on the 40-man roster. *** Hiura provides a power bat that can carry an offense and punish pitchers in a way the Brewers aren’t managing to do consistently. If they want someone as an everyday DH, that hitter needs to be a serious slugger, posting an OPS of .800 or more, and they’re just not getting that level of production at the moment. It seems a matter of time before Hiura makes the big-league roster again, and when he does, prepare for fireworks. View full article
  5. How did this carry so far... This guy has some serious pop
  6. The question is could it hurt keston? He's clearly making strides, but he's maybe got a little more confidence to build in what'll be his last shot likely with the brewers. Is it better to give him sporadic time v left handers as Voit is getting? Or use him if winker fails?
  7. As the Brewers' offensive rough patch continues, it's only natural to look to the Triple-A roster to consider alternatives to the current group of hitters. There's someone down there raking. The question is: are you ready to trust him again? Keston Hiura has had several chances with the Brewers. He demonstrated formidable promise in his first half-season, though his underlying numbers told a less inspiring story even then. He has struck out at alarming rates in all of his trials in the majors, and although he makes high-quality contact when he does put the ball in play, his slumps were too excessive and damaging to keep him on the major-league roster–particularly given his lack of a defensive home, and his inability to damage left-handed pitching. He’s currently down in Nashville, where he just hit his 12th home run of the year, and making hay. Could this time be different? The New & Improved Hiura has usually been quite successful in Triple A with the Nashville Sounds, but what is he doing differently that’s generating a modicum of hope? Well, historically, even despite the vast power output, he has still struck out with incredible regularity at the highest level of the minor-league system, failing to put the ball in play 31.6% of the time in his stints in 2021 and 2022. This, as you’d suspect, led to even higher strikeout rates against the higher-quality pitching in the majors, and made him almost un-rosterable. However, after a sluggish spring training, and a high strikeout start to the season while adapting his swing, he’s struck out at a 22.2% clip over his last 28 days, which falls even further (to just 17.9%) since April 21st. He has just two punchouts in his last 18 plate appearances. Hiura’s biggest issue has always been the high fastballs, with a golf-like swing destroying pitches low in the zone. In 2022, he swung and missed on over 50% of pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, with over a 40% whiff rate overall on the year. The contrast in his effectiveness depending on pitch location is most emphasized by his expected stats on sinkers vs four seamers; Four Seam Fastball – xBA .198, xSlg .489 Sinkers – xBA .349, xSlg .700 He has tried reducing the leg kick to improve his timing on those high fastballs, and this season, he’s worked on eliminating the leg kick altogether and just relying on his hands and hips to generate power. Have a look at two contrasting videos, one from 2022 and one from this season. Here's what a two-home game in Nashville looked like last year: And here he is hitting his 10th dinger of 2023. As you can see, this season, Hiura gets his foot down almost as soon as the pitcher starts his motion, leaving himself with a lot more time to read and react to the pitch. It’s resulted in a much higher contact rate up in the zone so far, as well as a better (lower) chase rate. His at-bats have been more selective, and he’s had better timing on the high fastball, not necessarily doing damage, but fouling off pitches, putting balls in play and then doing damage on any mistakes or pitches low in the strike zone. He’s forcing pitchers into areas they don’t want to be, and then he’s punishing them for it. He’s showing growth as the season goes on, demonstrating a better propensity to take his walks in May, though this could be down to being pitched around a little bit more. His declining strikeouts and improved plate discipline are huge developments, and he’s been a far cry from the three-pitch, three-whiff outs we saw with regularity last season. Secondly, he’s started to show an ability to hit left handers this season, hitting five home runs in 37 at-bats, with a manageable 25% strikeout rate. His OPS is 1.105, and he’s hitting the changeup effectively–a big bonus, given he had a .168 xwOBA against it last season. Forty plate appearances is a small sample, but it certainly shows some promise. Defensively, Hiura appears to have found a home in some respects, showing himself to have average speed and a solid enough glove in left field, with some highlight reel plays, including an outfield assist at home plate Wednesday night. It could easily be argued that he’s a better option than Jesse Winker, who has lost all semblance of speed, as well as being able to fill in at first base in an average way (also providing more range than Rowdy Tellez). Being able to use him to rest Yelich or Tellez on occasion would make him far more attractive to Craig Counsell. Tomorrow, we'll talk more about the understandable reservations the team might still have about calling up Hiura, but also how he can fit on the 26-man roster soon. In the meantime, let us know what you see as different in Hiura this year, and whether you believe these changes can translate to MLB. View full article
  8. Keston Hiura has had several chances with the Brewers. He demonstrated formidable promise in his first half-season, though his underlying numbers told a less inspiring story even then. He has struck out at alarming rates in all of his trials in the majors, and although he makes high-quality contact when he does put the ball in play, his slumps were too excessive and damaging to keep him on the major-league roster–particularly given his lack of a defensive home, and his inability to damage left-handed pitching. He’s currently down in Nashville, where he just hit his 12th home run of the year, and making hay. Could this time be different? The New & Improved Hiura has usually been quite successful in Triple A with the Nashville Sounds, but what is he doing differently that’s generating a modicum of hope? Well, historically, even despite the vast power output, he has still struck out with incredible regularity at the highest level of the minor-league system, failing to put the ball in play 31.6% of the time in his stints in 2021 and 2022. This, as you’d suspect, led to even higher strikeout rates against the higher-quality pitching in the majors, and made him almost un-rosterable. However, after a sluggish spring training, and a high strikeout start to the season while adapting his swing, he’s struck out at a 22.2% clip over his last 28 days, which falls even further (to just 17.9%) since April 21st. He has just two punchouts in his last 18 plate appearances. Hiura’s biggest issue has always been the high fastballs, with a golf-like swing destroying pitches low in the zone. In 2022, he swung and missed on over 50% of pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, with over a 40% whiff rate overall on the year. The contrast in his effectiveness depending on pitch location is most emphasized by his expected stats on sinkers vs four seamers; Four Seam Fastball – xBA .198, xSlg .489 Sinkers – xBA .349, xSlg .700 He has tried reducing the leg kick to improve his timing on those high fastballs, and this season, he’s worked on eliminating the leg kick altogether and just relying on his hands and hips to generate power. Have a look at two contrasting videos, one from 2022 and one from this season. Here's what a two-home game in Nashville looked like last year: And here he is hitting his 10th dinger of 2023. As you can see, this season, Hiura gets his foot down almost as soon as the pitcher starts his motion, leaving himself with a lot more time to read and react to the pitch. It’s resulted in a much higher contact rate up in the zone so far, as well as a better (lower) chase rate. His at-bats have been more selective, and he’s had better timing on the high fastball, not necessarily doing damage, but fouling off pitches, putting balls in play and then doing damage on any mistakes or pitches low in the strike zone. He’s forcing pitchers into areas they don’t want to be, and then he’s punishing them for it. He’s showing growth as the season goes on, demonstrating a better propensity to take his walks in May, though this could be down to being pitched around a little bit more. His declining strikeouts and improved plate discipline are huge developments, and he’s been a far cry from the three-pitch, three-whiff outs we saw with regularity last season. Secondly, he’s started to show an ability to hit left handers this season, hitting five home runs in 37 at-bats, with a manageable 25% strikeout rate. His OPS is 1.105, and he’s hitting the changeup effectively–a big bonus, given he had a .168 xwOBA against it last season. Forty plate appearances is a small sample, but it certainly shows some promise. Defensively, Hiura appears to have found a home in some respects, showing himself to have average speed and a solid enough glove in left field, with some highlight reel plays, including an outfield assist at home plate Wednesday night. It could easily be argued that he’s a better option than Jesse Winker, who has lost all semblance of speed, as well as being able to fill in at first base in an average way (also providing more range than Rowdy Tellez). Being able to use him to rest Yelich or Tellez on occasion would make him far more attractive to Craig Counsell. Tomorrow, we'll talk more about the understandable reservations the team might still have about calling up Hiura, but also how he can fit on the 26-man roster soon. In the meantime, let us know what you see as different in Hiura this year, and whether you believe these changes can translate to MLB.
  9. Christopher Morel just posted 1.100 OPS while striking out over 30% of the time
  10. Right knee soreness (not the knee he had surgery on last season). Team thinks it's just a minor niggle but being especially careful given his track record on the treatment table
  11. This doesn't look quite so viable now, a 2.29 WHIP over his last 5.2 innings
  12. Uribe's injury is right knee soreness, they don't think it's serious but worth noting he did have knee surgery in April last year Edit: Surgery was on his left knee
  13. It's a lot more than that, his range has been immense in the outfield on a regular basis, something Hunter Renfroe really didn't have last season. He's starting to get a bit of a handle on things but if he can tap into his power even semi regularly, that's a great outcome Plus he's just fun
  14. The Brewers informed him, per Journal Sentinel this is, at the start of camp that if everyone remained healthy through camp he would be used as a relief pitcher
  15. I didn't actually see it as the camera was for some reason just on the pitcher, but it was loud Quero with another 106mph lineout, this time to center field. Really unlucky but quality contact being made
  16. Chourio looks like he just isn't picking the pitch out of the hand at all, identifying breaking pitches should come with time, but a high hanging slider he swung way through, and then swung down and off the plate next pitch. Kinda ugly
  17. Now Warren with a bomb! Three runs come in, that was huge! The first base ump is being a bit weird, getting chased around the bases and told to get off the field, slightly odd Getting slightly feisty here
  18. Wes Clarke goes 109mph, 418 ft for back to back home runs! 3-0 with just one out so far
  19. Quero lined out to short at 105mph after a Chourio walk and steal, and Tyler Black hits a missile to right field, sixth homer of the year
  20. So who would we prefer to win tonight.... Cubs or Cards?
  21. Have Willy Adames wait for him in the showers
  22. Looking at stats v Kershaw it's quite funny. Adames has one hit in 10 AB's, no one else has... Except for Yelich who's 9-19 with 2 home runs
  23. Brice Turang has been a big upgrade already for the Brewers. A key part of the team’s league-best defense, the rookie second baseman trails only William Contreras in Defensive Runs Saved with 5. Compare that to the sad decline of Kolten Wong, who props up the league with -8 DRS so far and a ghastly 43 OPS+. Turang has provided huge range to cope with the loss of the shift; smooth actions; and an accurate throwing arm from all sorts of off-balance angles, something that was desperately needed given the heavy ground-ball approach so far this season from their pitchers. He started off brightly with the bat, showing why his contact skills were hyped and using his smooth swing to spray the ball to all fields, but did have a dip where his strikeouts rose alarmingly, and he struggled to make any meaningful contact with the ball. After a short break over a weekend in which the Brewers faced only left-handed starters, Turang has looked far more dangerous and consistent at the plate. What did we expect? Since the Brewers picked up Turang in the first round of the 2018 draft, the scouting report has been fairly consistent with what he has produced–smooth actions, good range at shortstop, with strong bat-to-ball skills and (hopefully) developing power. During his climb through the minors, he always put up numbers right around the league average, until his final half-season at Nashville. There, he managed to elevate the ball and drive it with more authority, while also cutting down a little on his strikeouts. He hit nine home runs in July and September, a sign he was potentially ready for big-league at-bats. It’s important to also recognize that, as a high-school draftee, he was considerably younger than his competition at every level of the minors. The Brewers needed to move on from Wong, who (although he did show more pop than expected) was subpar in the field. Given the struggles with injuries, the Brewers were hoping for some sort of consistent contact profile to go with above-average defense, and someone who could legitimately cover an injury to Willy Adames and the resultant hole at shortstop. The Story So Far Turang burst onto the scene initially, making some rangy plays and demonstrating a strong knowledge of the strike zone, with an 80th-percentile chase rate after the first two weeks. He did have some swing-and-miss inside the zone, but was making frequent, valuable contact, including a huge grand slam against the New York Mets in the home opener. Since then, however, things have gone downhill, with pitchers attacking him in the zone a lot more often early in the count, and his 25th-percentile whiff rate has come to the fore when he falls behind. If you’d suggested that Joey Wiemer would strike out considerably less than Brice Turang in the majors, most scouts would have laughed. He is sporting a 28.4% strikeout rate, and is almost the inverse of Wiemer, in that he has been targeted heavily by fastballs and changeups, to which he hasn’t found much of an answer (both have an xBA of under .200). Notably, he has just a 16% hard-hit rate against changeups, and 20% hard-hit rate against sinkers. On the contrary, however, he is really taking advantage of breaking pitches, to the tune of a .421 batting average and .526 slugging percentage, whiffing just 25% of the time on such pitches. He has begun to get some more results in the past week, hitting .421/.500/.474 in his last seven games, but he hasn’t improved in any meaningful category against the fastball, with lower exit velocities and hard-hit rates so far this month compared to Mach and April. He is striking out less often against it however, recording four hits in eight AB’s ending on the fastball (11 PA’s) with an xBA of .338, due to a lower line drive launch angle of 11 degrees in May. If he can start to increase the pressure on the fastball, we can start to see some of the damage come through on breaking pitches again. Defensively, he has been exactly as advertised, making everything look so simple, and covering a lot of ground to both sides, but in particular with a +3 metric to his left side. This is especially beneficial due to the complete lack of range of the Brewers’ first basemen. His accuracy has been a key component to the Brewers’ league-leading defense. On the basepaths, he has also been a handful, recording five steals, with a very good Statcast-recorded Sprint Speed of 29 ft/sec and 2 Bolts (where the runner averages over 30 ft/sec for one dash). He has the potential to be a 25-30 steals guy regularly, but he does need to find his way on base a little more often. Stand Out Stats In 10 plate appearances so far against left-handers, Turang has five strikeouts and zero hits He has yet to record a hit in the eighth or ninth inning of a game, in 23 plate appearances Has a .785 OPS when he’s swung at the first pitch, compared to .597 when he’s taken the first pitch Has hit just .130 against starting pitchers the first time up, but .458 against them the second time through The Deeper Dive Looking at the strikeouts from Turang, one thing that jumps out immediately is how many pitches he’s whiffed on in the meatball section, swinging and missing on 30 percent of middle-middle pitches. His approach so far, looking at his zone swing %, is to try and attack anything inside and over the heart of the plate, being much pickier with anything on the outer third of the strike zone. While he does regularly create line drives in this area (over 50% of balls in the outer third are line drives) he struggles to create high exit velocities, and as such, he’s trying to avoid swinging on these early in the count. He’s averaged 78 mph off the bat in the zone down and away–one reason why he’s struggled with both sinkers and changeups while hitting considerably better against four-seam fastballs, due to his strength up in the zone. Most left-handed hitters are particularly adept at pulling pitches over the heart of the plate, but Turang has struggled so far to do damage in that area. He isn’t creating the exit velocities to consistently hurt pitchers when they make mistakes, and he’s whiffing far too often (as previously mentioned) on these pitches. In the lower third of the strike zone, he’s hitting soft ground balls far too regularly, and with his contact profile, it’s something he can’t afford to do. Where he has made hay so far is when pitches are left up, creating ideal launch angles 40% of the time, allowing him to challenge the outfield grass with regularity. Also, although he has very low chase rates, when he does chase, he struggles to make any contact, with his out-of-zone contact at 42%, compared to the MLB average of 58.2%. Against better pitchers, this is unsustainable, and he needs to do a better job of fouling off pitches and dragging ABs deeper, given the skills he has at putting bat on ball. He’s currently facing four pitches per plate appearance, but have a look below and you’ll see how often he swings and misses at anything outside; Final Word From his performance in his first month, you can see clearly the areas in which you would expect Turang to begin to perform better, and the areas in which he can start to advance as a hitter. His ability to stay in the at-bat when pitchers do force him to chase is a must, and could do a lot to turn around his strikeout and whiff numbers, bolstering his contact-heavy approach. He has gone mostly to the opposite field and up the middle with his batted balls so far, and done nearly all of his damage on pitches inside, belt high. His current whiff rate over the heart of the plate is unsustainable, but if he can develop an ability to do damage on these pitches as well, and pull the mistakes, then he could take a step up to the next level as a hitter. His quality defense and base running give him a floor that should allow him to be a successful big leaguer even if he is in the 90 WRC+ range, but the Brewers will be hoping that, at just 23 years old, he has a lot of growth ahead of him.
  24. After we tackled Joey WIemer yesterday, let's turn our attention today to the other Brewers rookie who's become a staple of the starting lineup. What are the early returns on second baseman Brice Turang? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Brice Turang has been a big upgrade already for the Brewers. A key part of the team’s league-best defense, the rookie second baseman trails only William Contreras in Defensive Runs Saved with 5. Compare that to the sad decline of Kolten Wong, who props up the league with -8 DRS so far and a ghastly 43 OPS+. Turang has provided huge range to cope with the loss of the shift; smooth actions; and an accurate throwing arm from all sorts of off-balance angles, something that was desperately needed given the heavy ground-ball approach so far this season from their pitchers. He started off brightly with the bat, showing why his contact skills were hyped and using his smooth swing to spray the ball to all fields, but did have a dip where his strikeouts rose alarmingly, and he struggled to make any meaningful contact with the ball. After a short break over a weekend in which the Brewers faced only left-handed starters, Turang has looked far more dangerous and consistent at the plate. What did we expect? Since the Brewers picked up Turang in the first round of the 2018 draft, the scouting report has been fairly consistent with what he has produced–smooth actions, good range at shortstop, with strong bat-to-ball skills and (hopefully) developing power. During his climb through the minors, he always put up numbers right around the league average, until his final half-season at Nashville. There, he managed to elevate the ball and drive it with more authority, while also cutting down a little on his strikeouts. He hit nine home runs in July and September, a sign he was potentially ready for big-league at-bats. It’s important to also recognize that, as a high-school draftee, he was considerably younger than his competition at every level of the minors. The Brewers needed to move on from Wong, who (although he did show more pop than expected) was subpar in the field. Given the struggles with injuries, the Brewers were hoping for some sort of consistent contact profile to go with above-average defense, and someone who could legitimately cover an injury to Willy Adames and the resultant hole at shortstop. The Story So Far Turang burst onto the scene initially, making some rangy plays and demonstrating a strong knowledge of the strike zone, with an 80th-percentile chase rate after the first two weeks. He did have some swing-and-miss inside the zone, but was making frequent, valuable contact, including a huge grand slam against the New York Mets in the home opener. Since then, however, things have gone downhill, with pitchers attacking him in the zone a lot more often early in the count, and his 25th-percentile whiff rate has come to the fore when he falls behind. If you’d suggested that Joey Wiemer would strike out considerably less than Brice Turang in the majors, most scouts would have laughed. He is sporting a 28.4% strikeout rate, and is almost the inverse of Wiemer, in that he has been targeted heavily by fastballs and changeups, to which he hasn’t found much of an answer (both have an xBA of under .200). Notably, he has just a 16% hard-hit rate against changeups, and 20% hard-hit rate against sinkers. On the contrary, however, he is really taking advantage of breaking pitches, to the tune of a .421 batting average and .526 slugging percentage, whiffing just 25% of the time on such pitches. He has begun to get some more results in the past week, hitting .421/.500/.474 in his last seven games, but he hasn’t improved in any meaningful category against the fastball, with lower exit velocities and hard-hit rates so far this month compared to Mach and April. He is striking out less often against it however, recording four hits in eight AB’s ending on the fastball (11 PA’s) with an xBA of .338, due to a lower line drive launch angle of 11 degrees in May. If he can start to increase the pressure on the fastball, we can start to see some of the damage come through on breaking pitches again. Defensively, he has been exactly as advertised, making everything look so simple, and covering a lot of ground to both sides, but in particular with a +3 metric to his left side. This is especially beneficial due to the complete lack of range of the Brewers’ first basemen. His accuracy has been a key component to the Brewers’ league-leading defense. On the basepaths, he has also been a handful, recording five steals, with a very good Statcast-recorded Sprint Speed of 29 ft/sec and 2 Bolts (where the runner averages over 30 ft/sec for one dash). He has the potential to be a 25-30 steals guy regularly, but he does need to find his way on base a little more often. Stand Out Stats In 10 plate appearances so far against left-handers, Turang has five strikeouts and zero hits He has yet to record a hit in the eighth or ninth inning of a game, in 23 plate appearances Has a .785 OPS when he’s swung at the first pitch, compared to .597 when he’s taken the first pitch Has hit just .130 against starting pitchers the first time up, but .458 against them the second time through The Deeper Dive Looking at the strikeouts from Turang, one thing that jumps out immediately is how many pitches he’s whiffed on in the meatball section, swinging and missing on 30 percent of middle-middle pitches. His approach so far, looking at his zone swing %, is to try and attack anything inside and over the heart of the plate, being much pickier with anything on the outer third of the strike zone. While he does regularly create line drives in this area (over 50% of balls in the outer third are line drives) he struggles to create high exit velocities, and as such, he’s trying to avoid swinging on these early in the count. He’s averaged 78 mph off the bat in the zone down and away–one reason why he’s struggled with both sinkers and changeups while hitting considerably better against four-seam fastballs, due to his strength up in the zone. Most left-handed hitters are particularly adept at pulling pitches over the heart of the plate, but Turang has struggled so far to do damage in that area. He isn’t creating the exit velocities to consistently hurt pitchers when they make mistakes, and he’s whiffing far too often (as previously mentioned) on these pitches. In the lower third of the strike zone, he’s hitting soft ground balls far too regularly, and with his contact profile, it’s something he can’t afford to do. Where he has made hay so far is when pitches are left up, creating ideal launch angles 40% of the time, allowing him to challenge the outfield grass with regularity. Also, although he has very low chase rates, when he does chase, he struggles to make any contact, with his out-of-zone contact at 42%, compared to the MLB average of 58.2%. Against better pitchers, this is unsustainable, and he needs to do a better job of fouling off pitches and dragging ABs deeper, given the skills he has at putting bat on ball. He’s currently facing four pitches per plate appearance, but have a look below and you’ll see how often he swings and misses at anything outside; Final Word From his performance in his first month, you can see clearly the areas in which you would expect Turang to begin to perform better, and the areas in which he can start to advance as a hitter. His ability to stay in the at-bat when pitchers do force him to chase is a must, and could do a lot to turn around his strikeout and whiff numbers, bolstering his contact-heavy approach. He has gone mostly to the opposite field and up the middle with his batted balls so far, and done nearly all of his damage on pitches inside, belt high. His current whiff rate over the heart of the plate is unsustainable, but if he can develop an ability to do damage on these pitches as well, and pull the mistakes, then he could take a step up to the next level as a hitter. His quality defense and base running give him a floor that should allow him to be a successful big leaguer even if he is in the 90 WRC+ range, but the Brewers will be hoping that, at just 23 years old, he has a lot of growth ahead of him. View full article
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